thayer china's air defence identification zone
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
1/14
Background Brief
Chinas Air DefenceIdentification Zone - 1
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 25, 2013
[client name deleted]
We seek your assessment regarding China's announcement on Saturday [23rd
November] in setting up its first-ever air defence identification zone in the East China
Sea.
Queries
Q1- More than 20 countries already have similar air defence zones. In what ways is
China's zone cause for concern? For instance, how does China's self-identification
zone rules and boundaries compare with that of other countries especially the
United States and Japan? Anything unusual?
ANSWER: China's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) is special in two ways. First,
China's ADIZ encompasses the air space above Japan's Senkaku Islands and itoverlaps with Japan's ADIZ. This is a direct challenge to Japanese sovereignty.
Further, China is demanding that all aircraft comply with its newly issued regulations.
In contrast, the United States only requires planes heading directly to the U.S. to
comply with its regulations on identification and communication.
Q2 - Many think China's zone could possibly raise the risks of armed conflict with
Japan. Do you agree and why? Is it possible that the zone, in spelling out clear rules,
could instead contain the risks? Chinese and Japanese aircraft and naval vessels have
engaged in numerous encounters since September last year. How would the zone
change the way China would handle such encounters?
ANSWER: The air space above the Senkaku islands is quite small when compared to
the entire air space included in China's ADIZ. If China sends military aircraft to
challenge Japanese Self-Defense Force aircraft over the Senkaku islands this would
be a high risk venture that could provoke a clash or cause an accident. Such an
eventuality would be nothing less than a high altitude game of chicken.
China attempt unilaterally to impose its ADIZ regulations on Japanese air space
increases the risk of misadventure in the air rather than containing such risks. The
application of China's ADIZ elsewhere also has drawn protests from South Korea,
Taiwan and the United States. China's ADIZ directly challenges the right of over flight
by aircraft that are not flying directly to China. China's actions are a needlessprovocation.
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
2/14
2
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Chinas Air Defence Identification Zone - 1,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 25, 2013. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
3/14
Background Brief
Chinas Air DefenceIdentification Zone - 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 27, 2013
[client name deleted]
What is your assessment of the recent move by the US to fly B-52 bombers into theAir Defence Indentification Zone (ADIZ) just announced by China? Are you surprised
at all? It seems to be quite a bold move given the fact that Washington for a long
time seemed hesitant to take sides or show explicit support in such territorial
disputes. Is this an indication about the US actions in the region?
ANSWER: The United States has been quite clear that its defense treaty with Japan
covers the Senkaku islands. This includes the land feature, territorial sea and air
space.
Chinas Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) covers a wider area than just the air
space over the Senkakus. The US reaction was to up the ante and put the ball back in
China's court. China is on notice that its actions challenge not just Japan but the
United States as well. The recent flight of the B-52 bombers was a routine assertion
of the right to freedom of navigation over international air space by the US. In its
reaction to Chinas ADIZ the US pointedly made clear that the US ADIZ only
challenged aircraft heading directly towards the United States. Air craft transiting the
US ADIZ were left free to travel.
The US takes the same position on international airspace as it does on international
waters. The US Navy mounts calibrated challenges to nations that attempt to restrict
the transit of military vessels in their Exclusive Economic Zones.
The US position regarding other territorial disputes in the East China and South China
Seas is not to take sides in sovereignty disputes. Since the US administered the
Senkaku islands after the Second World War as part of Okinawa and later transferred
them back to Japanese control, this makes this case special. The US recognizes
Japanese administration over the Senkaku islands.
The US actions will be quietly applauded in the region since China has indicated that
it reserves the right to impose ADIZs over other maritime regions including the South
China Sea. If China promulgates an ADIZ over the South China Sea this could affect
Vietnamese military air patrols over the Spratly islands.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Chinas Air Defence Identification Zone 2,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 27, 2013. All background briefs are
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
4/14
2
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
5/14
Background Brief
Chinas Air DefenceIdentification Zone - 3
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 27, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment of Chinas recent move to announce the demarcationof an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, and the
deployment of an aircraft carrier group to the South China Sea.
ANSWER: Chinas promulgation of an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) is a
deliberate and calculated act to break the present Sino-Japanese stalemate over the
Senkaku Islands. Since September last year China has steadily but carefully escalated
pressure on Japan over the Senkakus. Japan has stood firm and not backed down at
each challenge. Prior to this latest move China sent an unmanned drone aloft, Japan
responded by stating it would shoot drones down if they entered Japanese air space.
By announcing the ADIZ China is trying to muddy the legal waters over Japans claim
to sovereignty over the Senkakus, its territorial sea and air space.
Chinas actions are carefully calibrated. They are designed to push the envelope of
Chinas claims while appearing defensive. Japan has so far lodged a diplomatic
protest. Japan must also send a military patrol over the Senkakus or appear to be
acquiescing to Chinas demands. This action would put the onus on China to
respond. Such actions, however, are akin to a high-altitude game of chicken.
If Japan tries to diffuse the situation through diplomatic means China will attempt to
expand discussions to include its sovereignty dispute with Japan over the Senkakus.
At present Japan denies any that there is any such dispute and refuses to discuss the
matter.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Chinas Air Defence Identification Zone - 3,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 27, 2013. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
6/14
Background Brief
China Air Zone Designed toBreak Island Stalemate
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 29, 2013
China Air Zone Designed to Break Islands Stalemate, Says Thayer
2013-11-28 23:08:56.993 GMTBy Scott Johnson
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg Brief) -- Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor at the
Australian Defense Force Academy in Canberra, spoke to Bloomberg Brief on Nov. 28
about Chinas new air- defense zone and rising tensions over the disputed islands
known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese.
Q: Why did China announce an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea --
and particularly, why now?
A: Well, I think there are two answers. Theres the immediate tactical situation and
the long-term strategic. Ill deal with them in reverse order. This is just another step
by China to exert and use international law -- the Pentagon calls it legal warfare --
to advance Chinas claims to sovereignty or control over bodies of space -- water like
the South China Sea and in this case the East China Sea, and over the Senkakus. In
other words, by establishing an air defense identification zone that includes the
Senkakus -- yes, Japan isnt going to relinquish [them], but over the long term -- its
establishing that there is a dispute. We consider it ours. Weve passed legislation
and issued regulations to that effect in the hopes of ensnaring Japan at some point in
talks. Japan adamantly insists there is no dispute, so it doesnt want to go that
route. Its a long- term Chinese strategy.
I think the shorter term is that since September last year when the Senkakus
controversy went on the boil again, China used all manner of naval means --
including mainly paramilitary, coast guard and civilian surveillance aircraft, but also
military warships -- to exert extraordinary pressure in cat-and- mouse games with
Japan around the Senkakus. That seems to have achieved a stalemate. Then about a
month ago China launched an unmanned drone, and Japan responded by saying it
would shoot it down if it entered its airspace. So tactically the air defense
identification zone is not something that was just pulled out of the bag quickly. It
was being looked at, I think, over a long period of time. So the timing was, we have
this stalemate. Xi Jinping has just had this important party plenum in China. I think
an agreement was reached to step up the pressure on Japan.
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
7/14
2
Again, Chinas strategy is to use legalisms and act defensively, claim it contributes to
stability. But in this particular case it declared a zone not only that overlaps with
Japans quite considerably, but to a small extent South Koreas as well. The tactical
one was how to break this stalemate over the Senkakus in line with the longer-term
objective of finally getting Japan to say there is a dispute, that the history needs to
be resolved.
Q: How great is the risk of a further escalation in the conflict?
A: I actually put it quite low because I think, again, using the argument of legal
warfare and Chinas portrayal of its actions as defensive, Chinas provocat ions are
really designed to get an overreaction from the other side or a back-down or an
incremental shift in the status quo. So when China announced the ADIZ, it
immediately sent up a patrol but it didnt tell us where it went, and the ADIZ is a very
broad area so that China can say were asserting it. The U.S. flies its B-52s through
and goes over the Senkakus, and China doesnt start scrambling aircraft. It really
makes a dissembling kind of comment that they monitored and were aware, andsecurity was maintained. So some of this was really for show. The real risk, though, is
if -
- and I suspect, why Japan has been absent -- is because if Japan puts planes over the
Senkakus to assert its sovereignty, and China replies, then you have the law of
physics that two objects cannot occupy the same space at the same time, and what I
call a high-altitude game of chicken. Either they clash, because no one could write a
manual and instruct pilots for every possible contingency in these high-speed
circumstances, so itd be highly dangerous and highly risky. All we have to do is look
back at the EP-3 incident of April 2001, where a very fast Chinese jet slammed itself
into a very lumbering EP-3 U.S.
reconnaissance plane because the pilot was engaging in close and dangerous
maneuvers to intimidate the EP-3. He miscalculated. On the other hand, it will now
be two armed fighters. The EP-3 is unarmed. It will be armed Japanese planes, armed
Chinese planes, and the risk is there, how do you prevent this from escalating?
Q: How might this play out in the coming months between China and Japan, and also
the U.S.?
A: Well I think the U.S. is probably -- Im speculating -- putting the pressure on Japan
to play it cool. Thats why we havent seen Japanese aircraft over the area, andthats
to prevent the direct conflict between the two. I think it will have to be to work out a
modus vivendi, where both sides engage in a kind of charade. China will say it has its
air defense identification zone up there. It will have to respond to civil air liners, in a
sense, not complying -- the Japanese ones. But these arent direct threats to China.
Theyre not flying at China or trying to enter its airspace. Theyre flying in parallel.
Just as China both objected to and reacted against American close-in surveillance in
this exclusive economic zone at sea, we dont hear any more complaints. China made
its point and then allowed the U.S. to continue its surveillance, and the U.S. probably
is being a bit more circumspect. I think that same model would apply, at the
moment, over the air. Theres always the risk -- Im not discounting that -- of a clash,
but I think the larger thing is its a political game. China is staking out, over the longterm, This is our territory, this is our zone, its within t he first island chain, and we
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
8/14
3
want to control aircraft that are in it. To the extent that it intimidates or creates a
precedent, then China can incrementally advance its interests.
Q: Do you see other potential consequences of Chinas actions, apart fromthe risk of
military conflict?
A: One, it serves to take the Senkakus and raise the level of temperature. All acrossthe board it means, once again, Chinese intentions have to be weighed against its
actions. Its probably furthering a notion of a milder form of a China threat because
of its behavior. It extends along East Asia, where weve had South Korean
complaints, Taiwanese complaints, as well as Japan and the U.S., and I think to
Southeast Asia. In a sense its unprecedented in that other nations have established
air defense zones, but Im not aware of anyone both establishing one over the
sovereign territory of another country -- Japans Senkakus -
- or declaring an air defense zone that overlaps considerably with another countrys.
Finally, the other air defense identification zones, historically, have been in a highly
different context. This is a context where there is a dispute between China and
Japan. It may not be the legal one that Japan says doesnt exist, but there is a dispute
over those islands, and this just adds a new dimension of uncertainty and risk.
Q: Do you see this affecting the balance in Chinas disputes in the South China Sea?
A: Well, China has already announced that it reserves the right or it is considering
establishing additional air defense identification zones. That would be to look at the
United States and Canada, and how theyve sealed off themselves in Alaska, Guam
and Hawaii. China may eventually work its way down the coast, and since it has that
huge island, Hainan, it could implement similar ones. Thats whats being talked
about. To do so in the South China Sea, the $64,000 question is whether it would bea limited air defense zone around Hainan island, or whether China would try to
expand it to include all the area within the nine-dash line. This is just sheer
speculation. They havent done it. But its notable that since the northern ADIZ was
announced that their aircraft carrier is now conducting training missions. In the
South China Sea, China has what we call extended lines of communication. In the
northeast, interior lines, meaning up north youre very quick from land to sea. You
dont have to refuel. You can get there quickly. You can stay in the air longer. You
can return and refuel. In the South China Sea, China doesnt have that massive air
power. Yes, they can deploy aircraft there, but then their loitering time wouldnt be
great, and theyd be operating at extended distances. If they experienced trouble,they have a long way to go back, rather than up north. The South China Sea poses
questions, like what does Vietnam -- which already flies combat air patrols over the
Spratlys -- do. The Philippines is probably not in the picture yet because its air force
is virtually non-existent, but it would affect U.S. deployments out of the Philippines,
on this rotational arrangement, when they finally are agreed. Probably Singapore
and Malaysia, if not Indonesia. So it takes on a wider group of countries than
Northeast Asia, and it seemingly runs counter to the positive diplomatic trends that
we witnessed in October, with all the Asean summits, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, the
president and premier of China coming out to the region. It would extend creating
an uncertainty in Southeast Asia, inflame countries that have disputes, because theywould argue that its an infringement on their freedom of overflight as well.
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
9/14
4
Run {BRIEF EA } to subscribe on the Bloomberg terminal.
Contact us at [email protected] for advertising and reprint requests, or to
subscribe if you are not a customer of the Bloomberg professional service.
Provider ID: 5297cd080ec003855297cd080ec00386
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, China Air Zone Designed to Break Island
Stalemate, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 29, 2013. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
10/14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
BRIEF www.bloombergbriefs.com11.29.13
CALENDAR (HONG KONG TIME)
TIME EVENT SURVEY PRIOR
JN 7:50 Industrial Prod MoM 2.0% 1.3%
JN 7:50 Industrial Prod YoY 6.3% 5.1%
AU 8:30 Private Credit MoM 0.4% 0.3%
AU 8:30 Private Credit YoY 3.5% 3.3%
JN 13:00 Housing Starts YoY 5.2% 19.4%
JN 13:00 Housing Starts 0.999M 1.044M
TH 15:30 Current Account Bal $250M -$534M
TA 17:00 GDP YoY 1.60% 1.58%
SL 17:30 CPI YoY 6.1% 6.7%
IN 20:00 GDP YoY 4.6% 4.4%
BCAL
WHAT TO WATCH:South Koreas industrialproductionjumped 3 percent year-on-year in October, compared with amedian estimate of a 0.9 percent gain. Japans industrial outputmay have risen 6.3 percent last month from a year earlier, accord-ing to forecasts, 7:50 a.m. Indias economic growthprobably heldbelow 5 percent for a fourth straight quarter, as GDP rose 4.6 per-
cent in the three months through Sept. 30, 8 p.m. (See page 4.) Chinaflew warplanes overits new air-defense zoneyesterday after Japan and South Korea sent aircraft into the area.
ECONOMICS:Japans jobless rate, consumer prices, 7:30 a.m. Australias private-sector credit, 8:30 a.m. Japans housing starts, 1 p.m. Thailands foreign reserves,3:30 p.m. Thailands exports, imports, current account, 3:30 p.m. Taiwans final third-quarter GDP, 5 p.m. Macauis likely to report GDP, trade and lending data today.
GOVERNMENT:The Thai Democrat partypledged to support protests aimed atousting Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
COMPANIES:Australia rejected the A$2.2 billion planned acquisition of GraincorpLtd.by Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.
MARKETS:U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. European stocksrose with the euro. (All times are local for Hong Kong.)
ASIAN DAYBOOK:
By Scott Johnson
South Korea, Japan Output; India GDP; GrainCorp
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee and robust U.S. data rekindledFed tapering jitters. Foreign institutional investors sold $1.1 billion of equities in India,Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam in the weekended Nov. 27, compared with net purchases of $42 million in the previous week.
The Indian rupee led regional currencies against the U.S. dollar, gaining 0.7 per-cent. The Austra-lian dollar trailedthe region, losing3.2 percent.
Key events anddata releases nextweek include the
Reserve Bankof Australiasmonetary policymeeting, Austra-lias GDP, Indone-sias CPI, ChinasmanufacturingPMI and SouthKoreas exports.
Investors Await RBAs Decision, Chinas PMI Report
WEEK AHEAD ANALYSIS BY TAMARA HENDERSON, BLOOMBERG ECONOMIST
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
113
114
115
116
117
118
Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13
Bloomberg Asian Financial Conditions, Index (rs)
AXJ Currencies Against U.S. Dollar, Index (ls)
Source: Bloomberg;ADXY, BFCIAXJ Index
Economics
AsiaQUOTE OF THE DAYOn China: At least the government is hon-est in announcing to the world what needsto be done and that they are prepared to dothat. Around the world, how many storieslike that, can you see? Not many.
Khiem Do, head of Asian multi-asset strategy at
Baring Asset Management
EQUITY MARKET
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
Dow Jones
S&P 500
NASDAQ
Bovespa
FTSE 100
CAC 40
DAX
Nikkei 225
Hang Seng
1-Day Change (%)
Trading Volume (Standard Deviation From 6-Month Avg.)
FRIDAY
Carlyle Thayeron Chinasnew air defense zone and therisks of escalating tensionswith Japan. (See page 8.)
ONE ON ONE
Fed Tapering Angst Worsens Financial Conditions
continued on next page
http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?- -
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
11/14
11.29.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Carlyle Thayer, an emeritus professor at theAustralian Defense Force Academy in Can-berra, spoke to Bloomberg Brief about Chinasnew air defense zone and rising tensions overthe disputed islands known as Senkaku inJapanese and Diaoyu in Chinese.
Q: Why did China announce its airdefense identification zone in the EastChina Sea and particularly, why now?
A:Well, I think there are two answers.Theres the immediate tactical situationand the long-term strategic.
This is just another step by China to ex-ert and use international law the Pen-tagon calls it legal warfare to advanceits claims to sovereignty or control overbodies of space water like the SouthChina Sea and in this case the EastChina Sea, and over the Senkakus. Byestablishing an air defense identificationzone that includes the Senkakus Japanisnt going to relinquish [them], but overthe long term its establishing that thereis a dispute. Japan adamantly insists thereis no dispute, so it doesnt want to go thatroute. Its a long-term Chinese strategy.
The shorter term is that since Sep-tember last year when the Senkakuscontroversy went on the boil again, Chinaused all manner of naval means to exertextraordinary pressure in cat-and-mousegames with Japan around the Senkakus.That seems to have achieved a stalemate.Then about a month ago China launchedan unmanned drone, and Japan respond-ed by saying it would shoot it down if itentered its airspace.
Tactically the ADIZ is not somethingthat was just pulled out of the bag quickly.It was being looked at, I think, over a longperiod of time. So the timing was, we havethis stalemate, and Xi Jinping has just hadthis important party plenum in China. Ithink an agreement was reached to stepup the pressure on Japan. Again, Chinasstrategy is to use legalisms and act defen-sively, claim it contributes to stability. Butin this particular case it declared a zonenot only that overlaps with Japans quiteconsiderably, but to a small extent SouthKoreas as well.
ONE ON ONE SCOTT JOHNSON, BLOOMBERG BRIEF
Chinas New Air Defense Zone Designed to Break Status Quo With Japan, Says Thayer
This interview was edited and condensed. The full
version is at{NSN MWZXMW6JTSFO.
Q: How great is the risk of a furtherescalation in the conflict?
A:I actually put it quite low because, usingthe argument of legal warfare and Chinasportrayal of its actions as defensive, Chi-nas provocations are really designed toget an overreaction from the other side ora back-down or an incremental shift in thestatus quo. So when China announced theADIZ, it immediately sent up a patrol but itdidnt tell us where it went, and the ADIZis a very broad area so that China can saywere asserting it. The U.S. flies its B-52sthrough and goes over the Senkakus, and
China doesnt start scrambling aircraft. Itmakes a dissembling kind of commentthat they monitored and were aware, andsecurity was maintained. So some of thiswas really for show. The real risk, though,is if Japan puts planes over the Sen-kakus to assert its sovereignty, and Chinareplies, then you have the law of physicsthat two objects cannot occupy the samespace at the same time, and what I calla high-altitude game of chicken. No onecould write a manual and instruct pilots forevery possible contingency in these high-speed circumstances, so itd be highly
dangerous and highly risky. Look back atthe EP-3 incident of April 2001, where avery fast Chinese jet slammed itself into avery lumbering EP-3 U.S. reconnaissanceplane because the pilot was engagingin close and dangerous maneuvers tointimidate the EP-3. He miscalculated. Itwill now be two armed fighters. It will bearmed Japanese planes, armed Chineseplanes, and the risk is, how do you preventthis from escalating?
Q: Do you see other potential conse-quences of Chinas actions, apart fromthe risk of military conflict?
A:One, it serves to take the Senkakusand raise the level of temperature. Allacross the board it means, once again,Chinas intentions have to be weighedagainst its actions. Its probably further-ing a notion of a milder form of a Chinathreat because of its behavior. It extendsalong East Asia, where weve had SouthKorean complaints, Taiwanese com-plaints, as well as Japan and the U.S.,
and I think to Southeast Asia. In a senseits unprecedented in that other nationshave established air defense zones, butIm not aware of anyone both establishingone over the sovereign territory of anothercountry Japans Senkakus or declar-ing an air defense zone that overlaps con-siderably with another countrys. Finally,the other air defense identification zones,historically, have been in a highly differ-ent context. This is a context where thereis a dispute between China and Japan. Itmay not be the legal one that Japan saysdoesnt exist, but there is a dispute over
those islands, and this just adds a newdimension of uncertainty and risk.
Bloomberg Brief Economics Asia
NewsletterExecutive Editor
Ted [email protected]+1-212-617-2309
Bloomberg NewsExecutive Editor
Dan [email protected]+1-202-624-1881
Economics AsiaNewsletter Editors
Nipa [email protected]
+852-2977-6628
Anne [email protected]+1-212-617-0061
Jennifer [email protected]
+852-2977-6733
Scott [email protected]+852-2977-4702
Staff Economists
Tamara [email protected]
+65-6212-1140
Michael [email protected]+1-212-617-6815
Joseph [email protected]
+1-212-617-7664
Richard [email protected]+1-212-617-8737
David [email protected]
+44-20-7073-3769
Niraj [email protected]+44-20-7330-7383
NewsletterBusiness Manager
Nick [email protected]+1-212-617-6975
Advertising Jeff Maniatty
[email protected]+1-203-550-2446
Reprints &Permissions
Lori [email protected]+1-717-505-9701
To subscribe via the Bloomberg terminal type BRIEF or on the web at www.bloombergbriefs.com
To contact the editors: [email protected]
This newsletter and its contents may not be forwardedor redistributed without the prior consent of Bloomberg.Please contact our reprints and permissions group listedabove for more information
2013 Bloomberg LP. All rights reserved.
http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-mailto:tmerz%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:dmoss%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:npiboontanas%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:arichardso21%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:arichardso21%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:sjohnson166%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:thenderson14%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:mmcdonough10%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asia%20mailto:jbrusuelas3%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:ryamarone%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:dpowell24%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:nshah185%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:nferris2%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:lori.husted%40theygsgroup.com?subject=Eco-Asiahttp://www.bloombergbriefs.com/mailto:econbrief%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:econbrief%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiahttp://www.bloombergbriefs.com/mailto:lori.husted%40theygsgroup.com?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:nferris2%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:nshah185%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:dpowell24%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:ryamarone%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:jbrusuelas3%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:mmcdonough10%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asia%20mailto:thenderson14%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:sjohnson166%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:arichardso21%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:arichardso21%40bloomberg.net?subject=mailto:npiboontanas%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:dmoss%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiamailto:tmerz%40bloomberg.net?subject=Eco-Asiahttp://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?-http://-/?- -
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
12/14
X b RFI(h://.ie.fi.f)
Tg NghaM NHT TRUNG
Ng 23/11/2013, Tg Qc hg a b hh g h dghg hg Bi Ha g, ba c b i h c Sea/i Ng ah ch i Nh B cg h g bi g Id di i ca H Qc hg b Bc Kih i ch .
Q h ca Tg Qc c b h i, Ha K, Nh B ch H Qc, i La Wahig, i T Se cg hai hch hcTg Qc hi ch hi c gag hi h h g hg hg, bch cc c hg b c ca Bc Kih.
R hi c gia a gi c g hi ca Tg Qc, h hg h c g c d cc c g ic, g h hh b h g h c.
C hi a hi c h 20 c gia c h hg hg g , hg i ag d Tg Qc hh i d hi i a gi h . Cc h d Tg Qc a hc g i cc c hc, d h Ha K NhB ?
Tg h h i g 25/11 g h dg hg hg ca TgQc, ch gia Ca Thae hc Hc i Qc hg c h ch ihc bi i a g hg hg ca Tg Qc.
Vng nhn dng hng khng ca Tng Qc (ADIZ) c bi n haim. Tc h, ng ADIZ ca Tng Qc ba gm c khng hn ha n n Senkak ca Nh Bn chng ln i ng ADIZ ca Nh Bn. l mhch hc c i i i ch n ca Nh Bn.
M khc, Tng Qc hin ang c c cc m ba hi n he nhmi d h ban hnh. Ngc li, M ch c cc hi c ba c i n M hchin cc nh ic nhn dng hng in m hi.
Nhi gi gh g h c ca Tg Qc c h g g c g ag i Nh B. K hg Ch gi, hi c hi ca
hai c i i ha hi g h c g Sea/i Ng. ii gi Ca Thae, ic Tg Qc g hg hg gSea/i Ng hc g hi hi hch g hi.
...
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
13/14
Khng hn n Senkak nh i n b khng hn bagm ng ng hng khng ADIZ ca Tng Qc. N Bc Kinh gi m ba n n hch hc m ba ca Lc lng T Nh Bn n n Senkak,i l m hnh ng hi l i i ca, c h kch ng m ccng hc g a ai nn. M nh hng nh chng khc g m chi limng n khng.
Vic Tng Qc m cch n hng cc nh ng ADIZ ca mnhkhng hn Nh Bn lm ng ng c a c n khng ha lm gim cchim ha n. Vic Tng Qc m ng ng hng khng a nhng ni khc cng nn hn ng chng i Hn Qc, i Lan Ha K.
Vng nhn dng hng khng Tng Qc c i hch hc n cnh khnghn ca cc chic hi c khng c i n Tng Qc. Hnh ng ca TngQc l m khi khch khng cn hi.
M, B52 , G : H MN. 27/11, :
Ha K ni kh ng ng hi c hng h i Nh Bn bagm c n Senkak, ai, lnh hi n khng hn. Vng hng khngca Tng Qc m ln m kh c ng ln hn l khng gian n n Senkak. Phn ng ca M l mnh hm bng li n Tng Qc.
Tng Qc hin c cnh b ng hnh ng ca h hch hc khng ch NhBn m c Ha K. Cc hi B52 gn l hnh ng hng n nhm khngnh n d l hng n khng hn c ca Ha K. Tng hn ng camnh i i ng hng khng ca Tng Qc, Wahingn ni l ng ADIZca M ch nhm cc m ba c i i n Ha K, cn hi c ch cnhn c d di chn.
M c cng m l ng i i khng hn cng nh hi hn c . Hi nM hng in hnh cc chin dch c hi k hich h nhm nhng c giac m an hn ch n cnh ca n ng ng c n kinh ca h.
Qan im c h ca M l khng ng bn n ng cc anh ch lnh hkhc ng ng Bin Ha ng Bin ng. Nhng d ic Ha K n l n Senkak a Th chin Th hai ng cch l m hn ca Okinaa c khigia li ch Nh Bn kim , ng Senkak l m ng h c bi : M cngnhn n n l ca Nh Bn i i n n.
Cc hnh ng ca M cc nc ng kh c kn han nghnh, l TngQc ni ng h dnh n m ng nhn dng hng khng khcn cc ng bin khc, ng c c Bin ng.
N Tng Qc hi l m ng hng khng n Bin ng, i c h nhhng n cc hi n a ca Vi Nam n ng n Tng Sa.
...
-
7/27/2019 Thayer China's Air Defence Identification Zone
14/14