term inflation analyses forecasts · 2013-04-12 · t r s t s 1.0 review of outturn the inflation...

Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts

February 201Research Services Department

Foreword

This report reviews recent trends in inflationand presents the outlook for the remainderof the fiscal year. The analysis is based ontrends in short term domestic demand andsupply indicators as well as importedinflation. These inform the assumptions forthe short term inflation forecasting model –Monthly Inflation Sub Index Model (MISI).The report ends with an assessment of theimplication of inflation developments formonetary policy.

Table of Contents1.0 Review of Outturn 1

2.0 Factors underpinning the revisedforecast 32.1 Trends in demand 32.2 Trends in supply 42.3 Import prices 52.4 Trends in core inflation 7

3.0 Revised Forecast 8

5.0 Summary and conclusions 9

Appendices 10

Tables and figuresFigure 1: Trend in monthly inflationFigure 2: Regional InflationFigure 3: Inflation ContributionFigure 4: Short term Indicators of

DemandFigure 5: Industrial Electricity SalesFigure 6: International Commodity Prices

Figure 7: Core Inflation (12 monthchange)

Figure 8: Inflation Fan ChartFigure 9: Trends in selected agriculture

productionFigure 10: Trends in Weather related

Factors

1.0 Review of Outturn

The inflation outturn in February 2012 was 0.8 per cent,exceeding the 5 year average rate of 0.6 per cent forFebruary. This brought the fiscal year to date inflation to6.8 per cent relative to 6.7 per cent in the correspondingperiod of FY2010/11. The calendar year to date inflation was1.2 per cent, in contrast to a 0.6 per cent decline for thecorresponding period of 2011. The average annual inflationas at February 2012 was 7.3 per cent.

Figure 1: Trend in monthly inflation

All regions contributed significantly to inflation in February2012 with Greater Kingston & Metropolitan Area (GKMA)being the largest contributor. While meat prices were higherwithin the GKMA, there were generally higher fruit prices inOther Urban Centres (OUC) and Rural Areas (RA) during thereview month. However, electricity and transportation costswere higher among the three regions.

Figure 2: Regional Inflation

Inflation inFebruary 2012surpassed theseasonal averageand largelyemanated fromGKMA.

-0.43 0.82

11.85 7.317.16 7.93

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12M

onth

ly

12-M

onth

Monthly

Annual Avg

Annual Pt-Pt

0.88

0.730.82

0.50

1.00

GKMA OUC RUA

infla

tion

(%)

Inflation in February 2012 was mainly driven by higher priceswithin Housing Water Electricity Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG)followed by Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) andTransport (see Figure 3). Together, these three divisionscontributed approximately 79.0 per cent of the inflation inthat month. HWEG accounted for approximately 39.0 percent of the month’s inflation and reflected higher electricityrates resulting from rising fuel costs and the pass through ofnegotiated increases in artisans’ wages by the IncorporatedMasterbuilders Association of Jamaica (MAJ). FNB accountedfor 30.0 per cent of the month’s inflation and reflectedhigher prices for meats, fish and other seafood as well assome vegetables. The increase in Transport was alsoattributed to rising crude oil prices during February 2012relative to January 2012.

Figure 3: Inflation Contribution

Inflation was drivenprimarily by higherenergy, food andtransport costs.

0.62

0.32

1.04

2.37

0.61

0.13

0.64

0.00

0.28

0.00

0.33

0.73

FNB

ATB

CF

HWEG

FHERM

HLTH

TRAN

COM

R&C

ED

R&H

MIS

2.97

0.06

0.44

3.88

0.38

0.06

1.04

0.00

0.12

0.00

0.26

0.78

Actual Share x 10

2.0 Factors underpinning the revised forecast

2.1 Trends in demandKey indicators of domestic demand reflected someimprovements in spending power while others suggested adecline. Among those indicating increases were real PAYE,and real debit & credit card transactions value whichincreased by 4.0 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, forthe three months to January 2012 relative to the threemonths to October (see Figure 4.a & c). Real annual importswere, however, estimated to have declined by 11.4 per centin February 2012 when compared to February 2011. Bothreal import value and PAYE continued to reflect significantlylower averages when compared to the pre 2008 crisis levels.

Figure 4: Short term Indicators of Demand

a

b

c

Demand indicatorsreflected mixedsignals of consumerspending power.

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan-

06

Apr-0

6

Jul-0

6

Oct-0

6

Jan-

07

Apr-0

7

Jul-0

7

Oct-0

7

Jan-

08

Apr-0

8

Jul-0

8

Oct-0

8

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9

Jul-0

9

Oct-0

9

Jan-

10

Apr-1

0

Jul-1

0

Oct-1

0

Jan-

11

Apr-1

1

Jul-1

1

Oct-1

1

Jan-

12J$million deflated

Real PAYEPoly. (Real PAYE)

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Feb-

08

Apr-0

8

Jun-

08

Aug-

08

Oct

-08

Dec-

08

Feb-

09

Apr-0

9

Jun-

09

Aug-

09

Oct

-09

Dec-

09

Feb-

10

Apr-1

0

Jun-

10

Aug-

10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10

Feb-

11

Apr-1

1

Jun-

11

Aug-

11

Oct

-11

Dec-

11

Feb-

12

J$million deflated

Real Import Value (cit)Polynomial Trend

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Nov-

08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov-

09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov-

10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov-

11

Jan-

12

J$billion

Series1 Polynomial Tend

2.2 Trends in supplyData from the Rural Agricultural Development Agency(RADA) indicated that some agriculture supplies recordedsurpluses whilst others were in short supply during March2012. This was reflected by the gap between actual andseasonal supply levels (see Figure 9). The main surplus itemswere among starchy foods such as Irish potato, sweet potatoand to a lesser extent yellow yam. Vegetable supplies,however, remained relatively flat in March relative toFebruary 2012 (see Figure 9 in Appendix). Althoughvegetable supplies varied generally around seasonal levels,the strong boost in starchy food supplies should result insome price declines among agriculture items during March2012.

Average industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy forindustrial production, reflected a decline of 0.8 per cent forthe 3 months to February 2012 relative to the three monthsto November (see Figure 5). This reflected a relativelynormal level of production that has prevailed sinceSeptember 2010.

Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales

Vegetables weregenerally in linewith seasonal levelswhile starchesexpanded.

Industrial producersslowed productionto normal levels.

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

May

-06

Aug-

06

Nov

-06

Feb-

07

May

-07

Aug-

07

Nov

-07

Feb-

08

May

-08

Aug-

08

Nov

-08

Feb-

09

May

-09

Aug-

09

Nov

-09

Feb-

10

May

-10

Aug-

10

Nov

-10

Feb-

11

May

-11

Aug-

11

Nov

-11

Feb-

12

billion MwH

Industrial Electricity (mthly)

12-Mth Avg (Industrial Electricity)

2.3 Import pricesThe average price of crude oil, as measured by the WestTexas Intermediate (WTI), was US$102.26 per barrel (bbl) inFebruary 2012, a 1.9 per cent increase relative to January2012. This increase reflected the impact of disruptions inIranian crude oil supply to France and Britain as well as theapproval of a Greek bailout package. There were alsofavourable macroeconomic conditions in the USA whichsupported higher oil prices. The WTI crude oil price isprojected to increase by 3.7 per cent in March 2012 to closeat US$106.00 per bbl. These expectations reflect the impactof tensions between Iran and Western countries as well asthe possibility of a military strike by Israel on Iran (see Figure6).

Figure 6: International Commodity Prices

Oil prices increasedin February 2012.

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-1

1

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Crude Oil Prices Monthly (Actual vs. Projections)

programme

passive

300.0

320.0

340.0

360.0

380.0

400.0

420.0

440.0

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-1

1

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Grain Prices Monthly (Actual vs. Projections)

Programmed

Actual

There was a 1.8 per cent increase in the average price ofgrains in February 2012 relative to January 2012. This wasattributed to increases of 3.0 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 0.7per cent in the prices for corn, rice and wheat, respectively.1

Corn prices rose in response to adverse weather conditionsin South America during February. The price of corn isexpected to continue to rise in March 2012 due to theimpact of drought conditions in South America as well as aspeculative increase in demand from China.

Higher rice prices were due to the continuation of a pricefloor imposed on exports from Thailand in addition to theincreased stockpiling in Vietnam. The price of rice shouldalso continue to increase in March in response to risingdemand from Nigeria, China and the Philippines.

The increase in wheat prices reflected the adverse impact ofcold weather following drought among growers in the BlackSea region and countries within the European Union. Wheatprices should, however, decline in March and April asweather conditions are expected to improve in the US GreatPlains.

2.4 Trends in core inflationIn February 2012, the TRIM rose marginally relative toJanuary 2012. However, the CPI without Agriculture andFuel (CPI AF) declined marginally while the CPI without Foodand Fuel (CPI FF) remained unchanged. The TRIM, CPI AFand CPI FF for February 2012 were 0.4 per cent, 0.5 per centand 0.4 per cent, respectively. At February 2012, the annualpoint to point measure for the CPI AF and CPIFF were stableat 7.1 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively, whencompared to January 2012. The annual point to point TRIMwas, however, 0.5 percentage point higher at 4.9 per centrelative to January 2012 (see Figure 7). All three measures ofcore inflation reflected a higher 12 month point to pointrate in February 2012 relative to February 2011.

Figure 7: Core Inflation (12 month change)

All core measures inFebruary except forthe TRIM declinedmarginally. Therewere, however,increases in the 12month point topoint rate for allcore measures.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Feb-

08

May

-08

Aug

-08

Nov

-08

Feb-

09

May

-09

Aug

-09

Nov

-09

Feb-

10

May

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Feb-

11

May

-11

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Feb-

1212-mth % CPIAF

CPIFFTRIMCPI

3.0 Revised Forecast

The Bank’s estimate indicates that headline inflation forFY2011/12 was within the target range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0per cent with a point estimate of 7.3 per cent. The upsiderisks pertain to a higher than expected impact of rising oilprices as well as drought conditions. However, if the Greekdebt crisis should deteriorate, this could trigger a reductionin the price of oil from a potential decline in demand.

The CPI is estimated to have increased by 0.5 per cent inMarch 2012. As a result, headline inflation for the March2012 quarter is estimated to be in the range of 1.0 per centto 2.0 per cent with a point estimate of 1.7 per cent. Forboth April and May 2012, the CPI is expected to increase by0.7 per cent.

Figure 8: Inflation Fan Chart

Headline inflationfor FY2011/12estimated to fall inthe 6.0% to 8.0%target range.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jun-

10Ju

l-10

Aug

-10

Sep-

10O

ct-1

0N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

0Ja

n-11

Feb-

11M

ar-1

1A

pr-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-11

Jul-1

1A

ug-1

1Se

p-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12Fe

b-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep-

12O

ct-1

2N

ov-1

2

(%)

5.0 Summary and conclusions

The inflation outturn for February 2012 exceeded seasonal levels with HWEGrepresenting the largest contributor followed by FNB and TRAN. Inflation during thereview month was primarily influenced by rising international oil prices due to mountingpolitical tensions coupled with signals of improved economic conditions especially in theUSA. Domestic demand indicators revealed mixed signals while supply levels trendedtoward normal levels. Inflation is estimated to be within the target range of 6.0 per centto 8.0 per cent for FY2011/12.

AppendicesFigure 9: Trends in selected agriculture production

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Sweet Potato DasheenYellow Yam Irish PotatoRipe Plantains

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Tomato (Plummie) OnionCarrot CabbageRed Peas Escallion & ThymeCallaloo Pak-choyPumpkin LettuceOkra

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Yellow Yam Seasonal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Tomato (Plummie) Seasonal

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Irish Potato Seasonal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Carrot Seasonal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Ripe Plantains Seasonal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Cabbage Seasonal

ShorttermInflationAnalysesandForecasts

February2012 ResearchServicesDepartment 11

Figure9:TrendsinWeatherrelatedFactors

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Sweet Potato Seasonal

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Escallion & Thyme Seasonal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Dasheen Seasonal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

tonn

es

Callaloo Seasonal

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-1

0

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-1

1

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

(mill

imet

ers)

All Jamaica Monthly Rainfall (milliliters)

Seasonal Norm

Series1

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-1

0

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-1

1

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

(SST - Deg.C) Nino Abnormal SST (deg.Celcius)

El Nino (SST)

La Nina (SST)

Normal (SST)

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTDC.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Dec-08 136.50 136.61 0.04 0.03 0.92 16.84 32.45 11.03 16.842009 Jan-09 136.03 136.33 -0.34 -0.62 0.00 13.97 21.57 10.65 -0.34

Feb-09 137.07 136.53 0.76 0.46 -0.04 12.84 20.89 11.49 0.42Mar-09 138.22 137.11 0.84 1.26 0.36 12.43 20.19 12.43 1.26Apr-09 138.78 138.02 0.41 2.02 1.24 11.19 19.29 0.41 1.67May-09 140.03 139.01 0.90 2.16 1.81 9.58 18.15 1.31 2.59Jun-09 141.95 140.25 1.37 2.70 2.29 8.95 16.87 2.70 4.00Jul-09 143.31 141.76 0.96 3.27 2.71 6.95 15.25 3.69 4.99Aug-09 143.90 143.05 0.41 2.77 2.91 6.10 13.59 4.11 5.42Sep-09 146.30 144.50 1.67 3.06 3.03 7.22 12.15 5.85 7.18Oct-09 147.50 145.90 0.82 2.92 2.92 7.75 10.89 6.72 8.06Nov-09 148.70 147.50 0.81 3.34 3.11 8.98 10.07 7.59 8.94Dec-09 150.44 148.88 1.17 2.83 3.03 10.21 9.58 8.84 10.21

2010 Jan-10 152.59 150.58 1.43 3.45 3.20 12.17 9.47 10.40 1.43Feb-10 155.92 152.98 2.18 4.85 3.72 13.75 9.58 12.81 3.64Mar-10 156.63 155.04 0.46 4.11 4.14 13.32 9.68 13.32 4.11Apr-10 158.73 157.09 1.34 4.03 4.33 14.38 9.97 1.34 5.51May-10 159.75 158.37 0.64 2.46 3.52 14.09 10.35 1.99 6.19Jun-10 160.66 159.71 0.57 2.58 3.01 13.18 10.71 2.58 6.80Jul-10 161.31 160.58 0.40 1.63 2.22 12.56 11.17 2.99 7.23Aug-10 162.01 161.33 0.44 1.42 1.87 12.59 11.71 3.44 7.69Sep-10 162.77 162.03 0.47 1.31 1.45 11.26 12.03 3.92 8.20Oct-10 164.03 162.94 0.78 1.69 1.47 11.21 12.31 4.73 9.04Nov-10 165.75 164.18 1.05 2.30 1.77 11.47 12.50 5.82 10.18Dec-10 168.11 165.96 1.42 3.28 2.43 11.74 12.62 7.33 11.74

2011 Jan-11 167.80 167.22 -0.18 2.30 2.63 9.97 12.42 7.14 -0.18Feb-11 167.08 167.66 -0.43 0.80 2.12 7.16 11.85 6.67 -0.61Mar-11 168.92 167.93 1.10 0.48 1.19 7.85 11.38 7.85 0.48Apr-11 169.74 168.58 0.49 1.16 0.81 6.94 10.75 0.49 0.97May-11 170.98 169.88 0.73 2.34 1.32 7.03 10.16 1.22 1.71Jun-11 172.28 171.00 0.76 1.99 1.83 7.23 9.67 1.99 2.48Jul-11 173.61 172.29 0.78 2.28 2.20 7.63 9.26 2.78 3.28Aug-11 174.57 173.49 0.55 2.10 2.12 7.75 8.87 3.35 3.84Sep-11 175.91 174.70 0.77 2.11 2.16 8.07 8.62 4.14 4.64Oct-11 176.73 175.74 0.47 1.80 2.00 7.74 8.34 4.63 5.13Nov-11 177.46 176.70 0.41 1.65 1.85 7.06 7.99 5.06 5.56Dec-11 178.21 177.47 0.42 1.31 1.58 6.01 7.52 5.50 6.01

2012 Jan-12 178.85 178.17 0.36 1.20 1.39 6.58 7.25 5.88 0.36Feb-12 180.32 179.13 0.82 1.61 1.37 7.93 7.31 6.75 1.19

1/ December 2006 = 100* Point to Point# Moving averageSource: STATIN

Table 1A

Feb. 2012JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES

Page 1 of 11

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTDCPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Dec-08 224.68 223.73 0.39 1.32 1.93 12.64 23.43 7.73 12.642009 Jan-09 225.40 224.63 0.32 1.21 1.53 10.84 13.47 8.08 0.32

Feb-09 227.13 225.74 0.77 1.48 1.34 9.91 13.20 8.91 1.09Mar-09 229.37 227.30 0.99 2.09 1.60 9.98 12.96 9.98 2.09Apr-09 230.76 229.09 0.60 2.37 1.98 9.60 12.64 0.60 2.71May-09 231.92 230.68 0.51 2.11 2.19 8.82 12.21 1.11 3.23Jun-09 233.65 232.11 0.75 1.87 2.12 8.29 11.69 1.87 4.00Jul-09 235.00 233.53 0.58 1.84 1.94 8.10 11.13 2.46 4.60Aug-09 236.93 235.19 0.82 2.16 1.96 8.03 10.59 3.29 5.45Sep-09 240.80 237.58 1.64 3.06 2.36 8.59 10.12 4.98 7.18Oct-09 243.31 240.35 1.04 3.54 2.92 9.25 9.74 6.08 8.30Nov-09 244.89 243.00 0.65 3.36 3.32 9.42 9.42 6.77 9.00Dec-09 247.10 245.10 0.90 2.62 3.17 9.98 9.22 7.73 9.98



2012 Jan-12 282.76 281.68 0.42 1.13 1.32 5.40 5.35 4.43 0.42Feb-12 283.93 282.76 0.42 1.16 1.17 5.41 5.32 4.86 0.83

1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point# Moving averageSource: BOJ

Table 1B

Feb. 2012JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL

Page 2 of 11

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTDCPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Dec-08 244.44 242.79 0.74 1.96 2.51 16.61 29.00 10.52 16.612009 Jan-09 245.58 244.22 0.46 1.78 2.07 14.44 18.61 11.03 0.46

Feb-09 247.19 245.74 0.66 1.87 1.87 13.26 18.23 11.76 1.12Mar-09 249.89 247.55 1.09 2.23 1.96 12.98 17.82 12.98 2.23Apr-09 252.21 249.77 0.93 2.70 2.27 12.53 17.32 0.93 3.18May-09 254.02 252.04 0.72 2.76 2.57 11.29 16.64 1.65 3.92Jun-09 255.85 254.03 0.72 2.38 2.61 10.29 15.78 2.38 4.67Jul-09 257.73 255.86 0.74 2.19 2.44 10.12 14.91 3.14 5.44Aug-09 259.57 257.71 0.71 2.18 2.25 9.62 13.99 3.87 6.19Sep-09 263.16 260.15 1.38 2.86 2.41 9.77 13.09 5.31 7.66Oct-09 265.66 262.79 0.95 3.08 2.71 10.10 12.28 6.31 8.68Nov-09 267.61 265.48 0.73 3.10 3.01 10.28 11.68 7.09 9.48Dec-09 269.57 267.61 0.73 2.44 2.87 10.28 11.19 7.87 10.28



2012 Jan-12 314.87 313.28 0.60 1.48 1.70 7.06 6.81 5.95 0.60Feb-12 316.59 314.81 0.54 1.47 1.52 7.18 6.86 6.52 1.15

1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point# Moving averageSource: BOJ

JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUELTable 1C

Feb. 2012

Page 3 of 11

GKMA OUC RUAInflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 0.67 0.26 0.7301.1 Food 0.64 0.21 0.74

Bread and Cereals 0.19 0.29 0.33Meat 2.66 0.37 0.57Fish and Seafood 0.51 0.30 0.67Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.83 0.71 0.55Oils and Fats 1.55 0.41 0.06Fruit -4.17 2.69 2.54Vegetables and Starchy Foods -0.41 -0.83 1.92

Vegetables 0.82 0.21 2.48Starchy Foods -3.75 -3.16 0.35

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.58 0.39 0.20Food Products n.e.c. 1.18 0.48 0.25

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 1.29 1.05 0.66Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 2.75 0.94 0.96Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 0.77 1.09 0.52

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 0.30 0.37 0.3103 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.78 0.66 1.3303.1 Clothing 0.82 0.80 1.3203.2 Footwear 0.72 0.39 1.3504 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 1.92 2.41 2.8404.1 Rentals for Housing 0.44 0.02 0.0204.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 2.31 2.66 2.4404.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling -1.18 -1.18 -1.1804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 4.25 4.49 3.9105 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.92 0.50 0.4005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.80 1.27 1.0405.2 Household Textiles 0.46 0.96 0.2105.3 Household Appliances 1.77 1.21 1.1205.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.71 1.12 0.3605.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.53 0.14 0.1905.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.84 0.19 0.1306 HEALTH 0.16 0.24 0.0806.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.39 0.46 0.0006.2 Health Services 0.00 0.11 0.1307 TRANSPORT 0.67 0.66 0.6008 COMMUNICATION 0.01 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 0.27 0.29 0.2810 EDUCATION 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 0.17 1.21 0.0012 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 1.73 0.53 0.06

ALL DIVISIONS 0.88 0.73 0.82

Table 2Regional Inflation

Feb-MTH. 2012

Page 4 of 11

Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 0.62 0.23 29.6801.1 Food 35.10 0.60 0.21 26.95

Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.28 0.02 2.20Meat 7.66 1.26 0.10 12.33Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.55 0.03 3.74Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.68 0.02 2.71Oils and Fats 1.64 0.55 0.01 1.15Fruit 1.14 -0.84 -0.01 -1.23Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 0.46 0.03 4.07

Vegetables 4.64 1.34 0.06 7.96Starchy Foods 2.21 -1.86 -0.04 -5.27

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 0.63 0.01 1.39Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.59 0.01 1.17

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.95 0.02 2.85Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 1.46 0.01 1.23Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.74 0.01 1.60

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.32 0.00 0.5603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.04 0.03 4.4403.1 Clothing 2.12 1.08 0.02 2.9403.2 Footwear 1.22 0.98 0.01 1.5304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 2.37 0.30 38.8204.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.27 0.01 1.2104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 2.45 0.02 2.5204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -1.18 -0.02 -1.9904.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 4.14 0.29 37.8005 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.61 0.03 3.8405.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.00 0.01 0.8805.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.47 0.00 0.1905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.38 0.01 0.9905.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.61 0.00 0.0405.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.23 0.00 0.0405.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.41 0.01 1.6406 HEALTH 3.29 0.13 0.00 0.5706.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.21 0.00 0.3206.2 Health Services 2.07 0.09 0.00 0.2407 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.64 0.08 10.4408 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0209 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.28 0.01 1.2010 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.33 0.02 2.5912 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.73 0.06 7.85

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.82 0.78 100.00

Table 3AComponent Contribution to Inflation

Feb. 2012

Page 5 of 11

Weight in 2011 2012 the CPI MTH MTH

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 -1.77 0.6201.1 Food 35.10 -1.91 0.60

Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.23 0.28Meat 7.66 0.40 1.26Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.37 0.55Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.92 0.68Oils and Fats 1.64 0.35 0.55Fruit 1.14 2.38 -0.84Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -10.57 0.46

Vegetables 4.64 -13.58 1.34Starchy Foods 2.21 -2.75 -1.86



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 1.50 0.3203 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.49 1.0403.1 Clothing 2.12 0.75 1.0803.2 Footwear 1.22 0.10 0.9804 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.17 2.3704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.00 0.2704.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.58 2.4504.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.10 -1.1804.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 1.59 4.1405 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.26 0.6105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.60 1.0005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.73 0.4705.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.20 1.3805.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.40 0.6105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.87 0.2305.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.12 0.4106 HEALTH 3.29 0.01 0.1306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.01 0.2106.2 Health Services 2.07 0.00 0.0907 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.25 0.6408 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.17 0.2810 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.14 0.3312 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.76 0.73

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 -0.43 0.82

Inflation ComparisonTable 3B

Feb-MTH. 2011 & 2012

Page 6 of 11

Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation


Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.91 0.06 4.86Meat 7.66 2.15 0.16 14.38Fish and Seafood 5.33 1.57 0.08 7.32Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 1.31 0.04 3.57Oils and Fats 1.64 2.45 0.04 3.51Fruit 1.14 -0.52 -0.01 -0.51Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 0.42 0.03 2.49




02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.70 0.01 0.8403 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.66 0.06 4.8203.1 Clothing 2.12 1.64 0.03 3.0303.2 Footwear 1.22 1.69 0.02 1.8004 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.53 0.20 17.0304.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.80 0.03 2.4704.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.39 0.03 2.3704.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -1.06 -0.01 -1.2204.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 2.20 0.16 13.7005 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.85 0.04 3.6505.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.43 0.01 0.8605.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.86 0.00 0.2405.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.85 0.01 0.9105.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.68 0.00 0.0705.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.46 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.53 0.02 1.4706 HEALTH 3.29 0.23 0.01 0.6706.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.43 0.01 0.4606.2 Health Services 2.07 0.11 0.00 0.2007 TRANSPORT 12.82 1.13 0.15 12.6708 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.74 0.02 2.1610 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.55 0.03 2.9512 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 1.69 0.14 12.36

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 1.19 1.15 100.00

Table 5ACYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Jan-Feb. 2012

Page 7 of 11

Weight in 2011 2012 the CPI CYTD CYTD

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 -2.83 1.3101.1 Food 35.10 -3.05 1.28

Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.37 0.91Meat 7.66 1.38 2.15Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.66 1.57Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 2.20 1.31Oils and Fats 1.64 1.06 2.45Fruit 1.14 2.05 -0.52Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -16.73 0.42

Vegetables 4.64 -20.59 1.71Starchy Foods 2.21 -5.93 -3.06



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 1.96 0.7003 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.21 1.6603.1 Clothing 2.12 1.51 1.6403.2 Footwear 1.22 0.78 1.6904 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 1.86 1.5304.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.01 0.8004.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.87 3.3904.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.89 -1.0604.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 2.68 2.2005 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.55 0.8505.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.72 1.4305.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.45 0.8605.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.24 1.8505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.08 1.6805.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.34 0.4605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.44 0.5306 HEALTH 3.29 0.07 0.2306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.17 0.4306.2 Health Services 2.07 0.01 0.1107 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.95 1.1308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.56 0.7410 EDUCATION 2.14 0.39 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.29 0.5512 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 1.15 1.69

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 -0.61 1.19

Table 5BCYTD Inflation Comparison

Jan-Feb. 2011 & 2012

Page 8 of 11

Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation


Bread and Cereals 6.10 8.44 0.52 7.94Meat 7.66 8.93 0.68 10.54Fish and Seafood 5.33 8.44 0.45 6.93Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 6.91 0.21 3.31Oils and Fats 1.64 7.60 0.12 1.92Fruit 1.14 13.55 0.15 2.38Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 11.00 0.75 11.61




02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 3.28 0.05 0.7003 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 8.34 0.28 4.2803.1 Clothing 2.12 9.44 0.20 3.0803.2 Footwear 1.22 6.69 0.08 1.2604 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 7.44 0.95 14.6304.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 6.29 0.22 3.4104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 6.27 0.05 0.7704.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 8.91 0.12 1.8104.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 7.88 0.56 8.6505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 4.75 0.23 3.6105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 8.51 0.06 0.9105.2 Household Textiles 0.32 7.40 0.02 0.3705.3 Household Appliances 0.56 5.05 0.03 0.4405.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 7.03 0.00 0.0505.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 3.08 0.00 0.0705.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 3.62 0.11 1.7606 HEALTH 3.29 2.49 0.08 1.2606.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 2.97 0.04 0.5606.2 Health Services 2.07 2.19 0.05 0.7007 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.43 0.31 4.8008 COMMUNICATION 3.99 3.13 0.12 1.9209 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.99 0.10 1.5510 EDUCATION 2.14 8.16 0.17 2.6911 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.47 0.15 2.3512 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 5.80 0.49 7.48

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 6.75 6.49 100.00

Table 6AFYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Apr-Feb. 2012

Page 9 of 11

Weight in 2011 2012 the CPI FYTD FYTD

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 6.92 9.4801.1 Food 35.10 6.92 9.50

Bread and Cereals 6.10 5.52 8.44Meat 7.66 5.86 8.93Fish and Seafood 5.33 7.50 8.44Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 8.15 6.91Oils and Fats 1.64 9.32 7.60Fruit 1.14 15.61 13.55Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 5.78 11.00

Vegetables 4.64 4.85 16.31Starchy Foods 2.21 9.28 -1.03



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 5.45 3.2803 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 7.01 8.3403.1 Clothing 2.12 8.34 9.4403.2 Footwear 1.22 5.10 6.6904 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 6.07 7.4404.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 10.09 6.2904.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 7.00 6.2704.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.42 8.9104.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 4.81 7.8805 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 5.33 4.7505.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 6.11 8.5105.2 Household Textiles 0.32 6.97 7.4005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 5.40 5.0505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 7.04 7.0305.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 5.91 3.0805.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 4.93 3.6206 HEALTH 3.29 1.99 2.4906.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 2.12 2.9706.2 Health Services 2.07 1.92 2.1907 TRANSPORT 12.82 11.40 2.4308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 2.29 3.1309 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 4.05 2.9910 EDUCATION 2.14 6.56 8.1611 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 3.50 2.4712 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 6.80 5.80

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 6.67 6.75

Table 6BFYTD Inflation Comparison

Apr-Feb. 2011 & 2012

Page 10 of 11

Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation


Bread and Cereals 6.10 8.81 0.54 6.78Meat 7.66 9.94 0.76 9.61Fish and Seafood 5.33 9.13 0.49 6.14Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 8.32 0.26 3.26Oils and Fats 1.64 8.14 0.13 1.68Fruit 1.14 14.05 0.16 2.02Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 9.95 0.68 8.60

Vegetables 4.64 13.70 0.64 8.02Starchy Foods 2.21 1.34 0.03 0.37



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 3.81 0.05 0.6603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 9.18 0.31 3.8603.1 Clothing 2.12 10.48 0.22 2.8003.2 Footwear 1.22 7.27 0.09 1.1204 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 11.89 1.52 19.1404.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 6.32 0.22 2.8104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 6.66 0.05 0.6704.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 9.42 0.12 1.5704.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 15.97 1.14 14.3405 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN 4.93 7.66 0.38 4.7705.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 9.88 0.07 0.8605.2 Household Textiles 0.32 8.77 0.03 0.3505.3 Household Appliances 0.56 6.51 0.04 0.4605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 7.76 0.00 0.0505.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 3.14 0.00 0.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 7.45 0.24 2.9706 HEALTH 3.29 2.65 0.09 1.1006.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 3.21 0.04 0.4906.2 Health Services 2.07 2.30 0.05 0.6007 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.70 0.47 5.9908 COMMUNICATION 3.99 3.13 0.12 1.5809 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 3.21 0.11 1.3610 EDUCATION 2.14 8.16 0.17 2.2011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.59 0.16 2.0212 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 6.09 0.51 6.43

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 7.93 7.93 100.00

Table 7Annual Component Contribution to Inflation

Feb. 2012

Page 11 of 11

term inflation analyses forecasts · 2013-04-12 · t r s t s 1.0 review of outturn the inflation...

Documents