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Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts

December 2015 Research Services Department

Foreword This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the short-term inflation forecasting model – Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI).

Table of Contents

1.0 Review of Outturn 1

2.0 Factors underpinning the revised forecast 3

2.1 Trends in demand 3 2.2 Trends in supply 4 2.3 Import prices 5 2.4 Trends in Core Inflation 6

3.0 Revised Forecast 7

4.0 Summary and Conclusion 9

Appendices 10

Tables and figures Figure 1: Trend in monthly inflation 1

Figure 2: Regional Inflation 1

Figure 3: Inflation Contribution 2

Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand 3

Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales 4

Figure 6: International Commodity Prices 5

Figure 7: Core Inflation (12-month change) 6

Figure 8: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart 8

Figure 9: Trends in selected agriculture production 10


December 2015 Research Services Department 1

1.0 Review of Outturn For December 2015, there was inflation of 0.2 per cent, in comparison to a deflation of 0.3 per cent for December 2014 and average inflation of 0.6 per cent for December of the last five years. Consequent on the December 2015 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 3.7 per cent, below the 6.4 per cent as at December 2014 but above the 3.1 per cent as at November 2015. Figure 1: Trend in monthly inflation

The Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA) recorded the highest average increase in prices for December 2015, relative to the other regions. Inflation in the GKMA region largely reflected increases in Restaurants and Accommodation Services (R&H). The rise was partly offset by a decline in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG) due to a reduction in the cost of electricity. For Other Urban Centres (OUC), the lower inflation was mainly attributed to a decline in Transport (TRAN) relative to a marginal increase in other regions. Figure 2: Regional Inflation

Inflation for December 2015 was below the average for the last 5 years.



Inflation in December 2015 was primarily driven by increases in prices within Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) and R&H. The increase in FNB mainly reflected higher costs for meats and domestic agricultural commodities. For R&H, the increase was largely as a result of higher costs for alcoholic beverages consumed away from home and accommodation. The impact of these upward movements was partly offset by a decline in HWEG. The decline in HWEG was due to lower rates for electricity. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution

Inflation for December 2015 mainly reflected increases in the cost of unprocessed food, meat, alcoholic beverages consumed away from home and accommodation.

Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN



2.0 Factors underpinning the revised forecast

2.1 Trends in demand All three primary indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ increased for the review period. For the three months ended December, the 12-month average of the real value of debit and credit card transactions and the real value of imports increased by 4.8 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively. The real value of PAYE receipts increased by 0.5 per cent for the three months ended November (Figure 5). Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand

Two of the domestic demand indicators monitored by the BOJ increased in December.



2.2 Trends in supply For December 2015, data received from RADA indicated that the supplies of starchy foods and vegetables were generally in line with or above seasonal levels. In this regard, the pace of increase in the prices of these commodities moderated relative to the previous month. RADA’s forecast for January 2016 suggests that the supply of both starches and vegetables were increasing with the exception of Irish potatoes, pumpkin & tomatoes. The survey undertaken by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) suggests a decline in agriculture prices in January 2016. Similarly, information obtained from the Consumer Affairs Commission’s (CAC) price survey suggests a decline in domestic agricultural commodity prices during the month. Information from RADA indicates that supplies of vegetables and starchy food are largely forecasted to reflect further increases in February and March. The 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production improved in December 2015 relative to the same measure three months prior (see Figure 6). Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales

There was a moderation in the rate of change of domestic agriculture commodity prices in December relative to the previous month. The indicator of industrial productivity improved in December 2015.



2.3 Import prices The average price of crude oil, as measured by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was US$37.33 per barrel (bbl.) at end-December 2015, a decline of 13.0 per cent relative to end-November 2015. Lower prices were mainly underpinned by (a) an appreciation of the US dollar and the (b) International Energy Agency’s prediction that low crude oil prices, and weaker investments in the commodity should continue in 2016. For January 2016, the average price of crude oil declined by 14.9 per cent to an average of US$31.78 per barrel (bbl.) relative to the previous month. Lower prices were mainly underpinned by investors’ concern about the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy, a major energy consumer, as well as the exacerbation of the global glut in the crude oil market, following the expected lifting of sanctions from Iran on the 16 January 2015. Figure 6: International Commodity Prices

Oil prices declined in both December 2015 and January 2016.



The Bank’s grains price index declined by 2.4 per cent for December 2015 relative to the preceding month. This movement was primarily underpinned by declines of 3.7 per cent, 1.4 per cent and 1.4 per cent in the prices of wheat, corn and rice. The grains index fell mainly as a result of excess supplies, weak global demand and an appreciating US dollar. For January 2016, the grains price index expanded by 0.5 per cent. This increase was primarily supported by a rise of 1.7 per cent in rice. The impact of this increase was partly offset by declines of 1.8 per cent and 0.1 per cent in corn and wheat prices, respectively. Increased rice prices mainly reflected the impact of a drought which has adversely affected crop production in Thailand. Additionally, rice farmers, millers and exporters have agreed to the government's plan for the country to cut rice production in the 2016/17 crop year in line with expected demand.

2.4 Trends in Core Inflation For December 2015, the monthly measure of CPI without Agriculture and Fuel (CPI-AF) and CPI without Food and Fuel (CPI-FF) both increased to 0.3 per cent from 0.2 per cent in the previous month. In contrast, the Trimmed Mean (TRIM) decelerated to 0.2 per cent from 0.3 per cent. At end-December 2015, the annual point-to-point measures of core inflation were mixed. CPI-AF decelerated to 3.5 per cent compared to 3.6 per cent in November 2015. CPI-FF was unchanged at 3.7 per cent while TRIM increased to 3.0 per cent from 2.8 per cent at end-November 2015 (see Figure 7). All three measures were lower when compared to November 2014. Notably, there has been a trend deceleration in annual core inflation since August 2014. Figure 7: Core Inflation (12-month change)

The grains prices index declined in December 2015 but increased in January 2016. The three measures of annual core inflation were mixed for December 2015 relative to the previous month.



3.0 Revised Forecast

Inflation for January 2016 is expected to primarily reflect an increase in processed food prices. The impact of this increase is expected to be partly offset by declines in HWEG and Transport due to lower electricity rates and petrol prices. For February 2016, inflationary pressure should largely result from an increase in processed foods and MIS. MIS is expected to reflect some price adjustments such as rent and insurance premiums. Notably, FHERM is expected to reflect an increase in artisan wages and salaries. Upward pressure should be partly offset by a continued decline in electricity rates. Inflation in March is anticipated to primarily reflect a seasonal increase in processed foods. Additionally, there is expected to be an increase in transportation and FHERM due mainly to higher petrol prices and the increase in the National Minimum Wage, respectively.

Inflation for FY2015/16 is projected to fall below the lower end of the target range of 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. The overall risk for the rest of the fiscal year is skewed to the downside. The risks are perceived to be balanced for the next four quarters (see Figure 8). The major downside risks include the possibility of larger and earlier than anticipated reversal in raw food prices, lower than projected international commodity prices, better than anticipated impact of developments in the Agro-parks on domestic agriculture supply and weaker than expected demand conditions. The main upside risks to the inflation forecast are higher than anticipated exchange rate depreciation, an intensification of adverse weather conditions, increased level of uncertainty and heightened inflation expectations due to the impact of a general election and maturing NDX bonds in February 2016, and stronger than anticipated domestic demand conditions.

Headline inflation for FY2015/16 is anticipated to be below the lower end of the target range of 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent.



Figure 8: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart



4.0 Summary and Conclusion For December 2015, the inflation outturn was 0.2 per cent driven primarily by increases in prices within FNB and R&H. The expansion in FNB mainly reflected higher costs for meats and domestic agricultural commodities. For R&H, the increase was largely as a result of higher costs for alcoholic beverages consumed away from home and accommodation. The impact of these upward movements was partly offset by a decline in HWEG. The decline in HWEG was due to lower rates for electricity. For January, upward pressure for the month is expected to primarily arise from an increase in processed food prices. The impact of this increase is expected to be partly offset by declines in HWEG and Transport due to lower electricity rates and petrol prices. For February, inflationary impulses should largely result from an increase in processed foods and MIS. MIS is expected to reflect some price adjustments such as rent and insurance premiums. Notably, FHERM is expected to reflect an increase in artisan wages and salaries. Upward pressure should be partly offset by continued declines in electricity rates. Inflation in March should primarily reflect an increase in FNB. Additionally, there is expected to be an increase in transportation and FHERM due mainly to higher petrol prices and the increase in the National Minimum Wage. Inflation for the fiscal year is projected to be below the target range of 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent.



Appendices Figure 9: Trends in selected agriculture production

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Oct-12 189.40 187.03 0.95 3.38 2.05 7.17 16.07 4.54 6.28

Nov-12 190.57 189.20 0.62 3.53 2.99 7.39 6.72 5.19 6.94Dec-12 192.47 190.81 0.99 2.59 3.16 8.00 6.89 6.23 8.00

2013 Jan-13 193.82 192.29 0.70 2.34 2.81 8.37 7.04 6.98 0.70Feb-13 195.03 193.77 0.62 2.34 2.42 8.16 7.07 7.65 1.33Mar-13 197.72 195.52 1.38 2.73 2.47 9.13 7.23 9.13 2.73Apr-13 198.55 197.10 0.42 2.44 2.50 9.15 7.40 0.42 3.16May-13 199.62 198.63 0.54 2.36 2.51 9.22 7.60 0.97 3.72Jun-13 199.93 199.37 0.15 1.12 1.97 8.76 7.77 1.12 3.88Jul-13 200.91 200.16 0.49 1.19 1.55 9.66 8.11 1.62 4.39Aug-13 201.63 200.82 0.36 1.01 1.11 9.54 8.45 1.98 4.76Sep-13 207.24 203.26 2.78 3.66 1.95 10.46 8.76 4.82 7.67Oct-13 208.95 205.94 0.83 4.00 2.89 10.33 9.03 5.68 8.57Nov-13 209.54 208.58 0.28 3.92 3.86 9.95 9.24 5.98 8.87Dec-13 210.70 209.73 0.56 1.67 3.18 9.47 9.36 6.57 9.47

2014 Jan-14 211.78 210.67 0.51 1.35 2.30 9.27 9.43 7.11 0.51Feb-14 211.90 211.46 0.06 1.13 1.38 8.65 9.47 7.17 0.57Mar-14 214.21 212.63 1.09 1.67 1.38 8.34 9.39 8.34 1.67Apr-14 213.61 213.24 -0.28 0.86 1.22 7.59 9.26 -0.28 1.38May-14 215.66 214.49 0.96 1.77 1.43 8.03 9.15 0.67 2.35Jun-14 215.86 215.04 0.09 0.77 1.13 7.97 9.08 0.77 2.45Jul-14 218.92 216.81 1.42 2.48 1.67 8.96 9.03 2.19 3.90Aug-14 221.30 218.69 1.09 2.62 1.96 9.75 9.05 3.31 5.03Sep-14 225.86 222.03 2.06 4.63 3.25 8.99 8.93 5.44 7.20Oct-14 226.09 224.42 0.10 3.28 3.51 8.20 8.76 5.55 7.31Nov-14 224.88 225.61 -0.54 1.62 3.16 7.32 8.54 4.98 6.73Dec-14 224.09 225.02 -0.35 -0.78 1.35 6.36 8.27 4.61 6.36

2015 Jan-15 222.98 223.98 -0.50 -1.38 -0.19 5.29 7.94 4.09 -0.50Feb-15 221.53 222.87 -0.65 -1.49 -1.22 4.54 7.59 3.41 -1.14Mar-15 222.69 222.40 0.52 -0.63 -1.16 3.96 7.21 3.96 -0.63Apr-15 223.06 222.43 0.17 0.03 -0.70 4.42 6.94 0.17 -0.46May-15 224.22 223.32 0.52 1.22 0.20 3.97 6.60 0.69 0.06Jun-15 225.30 224.19 0.48 1.17 0.81 4.37 6.30 1.17 0.54Jul-15 227.23 225.58 0.86 1.87 1.42 3.80 5.88 2.04 1.40Aug-15 228.99 227.18 0.78 2.13 1.73 3.48 5.36 2.83 2.19Sep-15 229.97 228.73 0.43 2.07 2.02 1.82 4.76 3.27 2.62Oct-15 230.69 229.88 0.31 1.52 1.91 2.03 4.25 3.59 2.94Nov-15 231.80 230.82 0.48 1.23 1.60 3.08 3.90 4.09 3.44Dec-15 232.30 231.60 0.21 1.01 1.25 3.66 3.68 4.31 3.66

1/ December 2006 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: STATIN

Table 1A

Dec. 2015JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES

Page 1 of 14


CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Oct-12 284.85 283.30 0.47 2.05 -0.50 1.88 13.39 -0.10 1.16

Nov-12 285.76 284.71 0.32 1.51 0.59 1.81 3.85 0.22 1.48Dec-12 286.62 285.74 0.30 1.09 1.55 1.79 3.56 0.52 1.79

2013 Jan-13 289.56 287.31 1.03 1.65 1.42 2.41 3.31 1.55 1.03Feb-13 291.62 289.26 0.71 2.05 1.60 2.71 3.09 2.27 1.74Mar-13 293.70 291.62 0.71 2.47 2.06 3.00 2.90 3.00 2.47Apr-13 295.67 293.66 0.67 2.11 2.21 3.41 2.76 0.67 3.16May-13 296.64 295.34 0.33 1.72 2.10 3.50 2.63 1.00 3.50Jun-13 298.15 296.82 0.51 1.52 1.78 3.36 2.46 1.52 4.02Jul-13 298.07 297.62 -0.03 0.81 1.35 6.78 2.88 1.49 3.99Aug-13 299.39 298.53 0.44 0.93 1.08 6.35 3.24 1.94 4.46Sep-13 300.75 299.40 0.46 0.87 0.87 6.08 3.59 2.40 4.93Oct-13 303.82 301.32 1.02 1.93 1.24 6.66 3.98 3.45 6.00Nov-13 305.30 303.29 0.49 1.98 1.59 6.84 4.40 3.95 6.52Dec-13 306.59 305.24 0.42 1.94 1.95 6.97 4.83 4.39 6.97



1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

Table 1B

Dec. 2015JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL

Page 2 of 14


CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Oct-12 327.13 324.94 0.58 2.41 1.19 5.43 15.70 2.90 4.52

Nov-12 328.75 327.04 0.49 1.95 1.59 5.37 6.20 3.41 5.04Dec-12 330.01 328.63 0.38 1.47 1.94 5.44 6.08 3.81 5.44




1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUELTable 1C

Dec. 2015

Page 3 of 14

GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 0.45 0.37 0.36

01.1 Food 0.46 0.38 0.37Bread and Cereals 0.51 0.37 0.20Meat 0.27 0.63 0.61Fish and Seafood 0.66 0.33 0.60Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.10 0.15 0.16Oils and Fats 0.32 0.18 0.31Fruit 0.45 0.61 0.40Vegetables and Starchy Foods 0.63 0.40 0.36

Vegetables 0.59 0.26 0.20Starchy Foods 0.80 0.80 0.85

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 0.28 0.04 0.10Food Products n.e.c. 0.13 0.25 0.26

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.18 0.28 0.10Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.12 0.12 0.09Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 0.20 0.33 0.10

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 0.54 0.27 0.4503 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.08 0.08 0.1003.1 Clothing 0.14 0.08 0.1003.2 Footwear 0.00 0.07 0.1104 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS -0.23 -0.44 -0.6804.1 Rentals for Housing 0.29 0.07 0.0704.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.84 0.20 0.1104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.15 1.15 1.1504.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels -1.51 -1.33 -1.2505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.17 0.11 0.2405.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.56 0.20 0.2605.2 Household Textiles 0.07 0.30 0.0005.3 Household Appliances 0.09 0.15 0.1905.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.01 0.30 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.14 0.10 0.4105.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.11 0.07 0.2606 HEALTH 0.00 0.01 0.0106.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.00 0.03 0.0406.2 Health Services 0.00 0.00 0.0007 TRANSPORT 0.07 -0.19 0.0008 COMMUNICATION 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 0.04 0.04 0.0210 EDUCATION 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 0.75 0.49 0.73

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 0.28 0.24 0.38

ALL DIVISIONS 0.27 0.15 0.19

Table 2Regional Inflation

Dec-MTH. 2015

Page 4 of 14

GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 0.93 0.85 1.0603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.53 0.75 0.8403.1 Clothing 0.62 0.91 1.0803.2 Footwear 0.40 0.42 0.4604 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS -1.36 -1.65 -2.3204.1 Rentals for Housing 0.35 0.48 0.4804.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 1.06 0.67 0.1204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling -0.29 -0.29 -0.2904.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels -3.96 -3.62 -3.5505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.54 0.56 0.6905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.77 0.64 0.7905.2 Household Textiles 0.09 0.93 0.0705.3 Household Appliances 0.57 1.05 1.3205.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.42 1.12 0.3405.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.37 0.62 1.0605.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.52 0.41 0.5806 HEALTH 0.31 0.41 0.3106.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.29 0.30 0.1606.2 Health Services 0.32 0.48 0.4007 TRANSPORT -1.18 -1.57 -1.1208 COMMUNICATION 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 0.35 0.41 0.6710 EDUCATION 0.13 0.15 0.3011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 0.90 1.15 1.25



Table 2Regional Inflation

Dec-QTR. 2015

Page 5 of 14

Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 0.39 0.15 83.41

01.1 Food 35.10 0.41 0.14 80.62Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.32 0.02 11.11Meat 7.66 0.49 0.04 21.07Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.57 0.03 17.12Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.14 0.00 2.41Oils and Fats 1.64 0.29 0.00 2.65Fruit 1.14 0.47 0.01 3.06Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 0.50 0.03 19.37

Vegetables 4.64 0.42 0.02 10.98Starchy Foods 2.21 0.82 0.02 10.20

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 0.15 0.00 1.42Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.21 0.00 1.87

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.16 0.00 2.19Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.10 0.00 0.39Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.19 0.00 1.82

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.44 0.01 3.4703 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.09 0.00 1.7503.1 Clothing 2.12 0.11 0.00 1.3003.2 Footwear 1.22 0.07 0.00 0.4804 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -0.45 -0.06 -32.2604.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.20 0.01 4.0204.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.34 0.00 1.5404.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.15 0.02 8.6104.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -1.34 -0.10 -54.1505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.18 0.01 5.1605.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.35 0.00 1.3805.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.10 0.00 0.1805.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.15 0.00 0.4605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.0205.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.34 0.00 0.2905.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.16 0.00 2.7906 HEALTH 3.29 0.01 0.00 0.1906.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.03 0.00 0.1706.2 Health Services 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.0007 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.02 0.00 -1.2108 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.03 0.00 0.5910 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.00 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.68 0.04 23.97

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 0.32 0.03 14.94

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.21 0.18 100.00

Table 3AComponent Contribution to Inflation

Dec. 2015

Page 6 of 14

Weight in 2014 2015

the CPI MTH MTH

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 -0.59 0.39

01.1 Food 35.10 -0.67 0.41Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.46 0.32Meat 7.66 0.68 0.49Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.65 0.57Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.67 0.14Oils and Fats 1.64 0.29 0.29Fruit 1.14 0.10 0.47Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -4.38 0.50

Vegetables 4.64 -4.62 0.42Starchy Foods 2.21 -3.65 0.82



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.95 0.4403 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.12 0.0903.1 Clothing 2.12 0.52 0.1103.2 Footwear 1.22 2.05 0.0704 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -1.23 -0.4504.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.00 0.2004.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.22 0.3404.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -2.21 1.1504.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -1.73 -1.3405 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.72 0.1805.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.46 0.3505.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.45 0.1005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.02 0.1505.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.74 0.0605.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.69 0.3405.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.76 0.1606 HEALTH 3.29 0.10 0.0106.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.14 0.0306.2 Health Services 2.07 0.07 0.0007 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.43 -0.0208 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.15 0.0310 EDUCATION 2.14 -0.09 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.03 0.68


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 -0.35 0.21

Inflation ComparisonTable 3B

Dec-MTH. 2014 & 2015

Page 7 of 14

Weight in Quarterly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation Inflation






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.98 0.01 1.7503 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.72 0.02 3.1303.1 Clothing 2.12 0.91 0.02 2.5003.2 Footwear 1.22 0.43 0.01 0.6904 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -1.78 -0.23 -29.5804.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.40 0.01 1.8504.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.52 0.00 0.5404.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -0.29 0.00 -0.5104.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -3.69 -0.26 -34.1505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.61 0.03 3.9005.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.76 0.01 0.6805.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.30 0.00 0.1305.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.99 0.01 0.7205.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.49 0.00 0.0305.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.91 0.00 0.1805.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.52 0.02 2.1306 HEALTH 3.29 0.33 0.01 1.4006.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.22 0.00 0.3606.2 Health Services 2.07 0.40 0.01 1.0607 TRANSPORT 12.82 -1.23 -0.16 -20.5208 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.51 0.02 2.2510 EDUCATION 2.14 0.20 0.00 0.5511 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.10 0.07 8.84


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 1.01 0.77 100.00

Component Contribution to InflationTable 4A

Dec-QTR. 2015

Page 8 of 14

Weight in 2014 2015

the CPI QTR QTR

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 -0.53 2.45

01.1 Food 35.10 -0.66 2.54Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.95 0.67Meat 7.66 2.17 0.92Fish and Seafood 5.33 2.18 1.13Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 2.21 0.43Oils and Fats 1.64 1.20 1.01Fruit 1.14 2.40 1.44Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 -7.85 7.34

Vegetables 4.64 -9.23 8.20Starchy Foods 2.21 -3.50 4.98



02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 1.94 0.9803 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.51 0.7203.1 Clothing 2.12 0.94 0.9103.2 Footwear 1.22 2.40 0.4304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -4.54 -1.7804.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.18 0.4004.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.90 0.5204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -0.44 -0.2904.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -7.98 -3.6905 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 1.32 0.6105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.12 0.7605.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.59 0.3005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 2.39 0.9905.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 1.16 0.4905.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.06 0.9105.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.25 0.5206 HEALTH 3.29 0.58 0.3306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.70 0.2206.2 Health Services 2.07 0.50 0.4007 TRANSPORT 12.82 -1.73 -1.2308 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.02 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.89 0.5110 EDUCATION 2.14 0.06 0.2011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.34 1.10


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 -0.78 1.01

Table 4BInflation Comparison

Dec-QTR. 2014 & 2015

Page 9 of 14

Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 5.4 0.07 2.3603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 4.4 0.15 4.6903.1 Clothing 2.12 5.1 0.11 3.4303.2 Footwear 1.22 3.4 0.04 1.3204 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -8.3 -1.06 -34.0004.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 1.1 0.04 1.2204.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 9.9 0.08 2.5304.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -0.7 -0.01 -0.2904.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -16.5 -1.18 -37.6205 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 3.1 0.15 4.8305.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 2.9 0.02 0.6405.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.9 0.01 0.2905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 4.5 0.03 0.8005.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 2.9 0.00 0.0505.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 4.1 0.01 0.2005.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 2.8 0.09 2.8606 HEALTH 3.29 2.0 0.07 2.1506.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 2.6 0.03 1.0006.2 Health Services 2.07 1.7 0.04 1.1307 TRANSPORT 12.82 -4.0 -0.52 -16.5808 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.0 0.00 0.0109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.6 0.09 2.8210 EDUCATION 2.14 5.5 0.12 3.7511 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 4.7 0.29 9.23


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 3.7 3.13 100.00

Table 5ACYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Jan-Dec. 2015

Page 10 of 14

Weight in 2014 2015

the CPI CYTD CYTD






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 5.69 5.3603 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 4.96 4.4003.1 Clothing 2.12 4.39 5.0603.2 Footwear 1.22 5.84 3.3804 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -2.01 -8.3404.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 1.16 1.0804.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 5.03 9.8804.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -1.13 -0.6904.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -4.33 -16.5305 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 8.42 3.0705.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 4.31 2.9005.2 Household Textiles 0.32 4.08 2.8505.3 Household Appliances 0.56 7.81 4.4705.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 4.47 2.9005.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 4.84 4.1105.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 10.19 2.8306 HEALTH 3.29 3.46 2.0406.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 3.82 2.5606.2 Health Services 2.07 3.22 1.7107 TRANSPORT 12.82 4.55 -4.0508 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.04 0.0109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 5.10 2.6310 EDUCATION 2.14 3.93 5.4811 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 4.47 4.66



Table 5BCYTD Inflation Comparison

Jan-Dec. 2014 & 2015

Page 11 of 14

Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 4.43 0.06 1.7003 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 2.79 0.09 2.5803.1 Clothing 2.12 3.36 0.07 1.9803.2 Footwear 1.22 1.91 0.02 0.6504 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -4.31 -0.55 -15.2704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.73 0.03 0.7104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 1.38 0.01 0.3104.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 4.56 0.06 1.6704.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -9.69 -0.69 -19.1505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 2.11 0.10 2.8905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.83 0.01 0.3505.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.50 0.00 0.1305.3 Household Appliances 0.56 3.46 0.02 0.5405.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 2.34 0.00 0.0305.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 2.91 0.00 0.1205.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 1.96 0.06 1.7106 HEALTH 3.29 1.32 0.04 1.2106.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 1.54 0.02 0.5206.2 Health Services 2.07 1.18 0.02 0.6807 TRANSPORT 12.82 -3.25 -0.42 -11.5508 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.10 0.07 1.9610 EDUCATION 2.14 5.48 0.12 3.2611 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.77 0.11 3.03


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 4.31 3.60 100.00

Table 6AFYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Apr-Dec. 2015

Page 12 of 14

Weight in 2014 2015

the CPI FYTD FYTD






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 5.24 4.4303 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 3.61 2.7903.1 Clothing 2.12 3.47 3.3603.2 Footwear 1.22 3.83 1.9104 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -5.56 -4.3104.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.78 0.7304.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 2.88 1.3804.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -1.64 4.5604.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -9.86 -9.6905 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 4.30 2.1105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 3.11 1.8305.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.59 1.5005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 5.82 3.4605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 3.55 2.3405.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 3.07 2.9105.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 4.53 1.9606 HEALTH 3.29 2.86 1.3206.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 3.19 1.5406.2 Health Services 2.07 2.65 1.1807 TRANSPORT 12.82 3.48 -3.2508 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.04 0.0009 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 4.15 2.1010 EDUCATION 2.14 3.93 5.4811 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 2.50 1.77



Table 6BFYTD Inflation Comparison

Apr-Dec. 2014 & 2015

Page 13 of 14

Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 5.36 0.07 2.0203 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 4.40 0.15 4.0003.1 Clothing 2.12 5.06 0.11 2.9303.2 Footwear 1.22 3.38 0.04 1.1304 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -8.34 -1.06 -29.0504.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 1.08 0.04 1.0404.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 9.88 0.08 2.1604.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -0.69 -0.01 -0.2504.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -16.53 -1.18 -32.1505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN 4.93 3.07 0.15 4.1305.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 2.90 0.02 0.5505.2 Household Textiles 0.32 2.85 0.01 0.2505.3 Household Appliances 0.56 4.47 0.03 0.6805.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 2.90 0.00 0.0405.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 4.11 0.01 0.1705.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 2.83 0.09 2.4406 HEALTH 3.29 2.04 0.07 1.8406.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 2.56 0.03 0.8506.2 Health Services 2.07 1.71 0.04 0.9707 TRANSPORT 12.82 -4.05 -0.52 -14.1708 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.01 0.00 0.0109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.63 0.09 2.4110 EDUCATION 2.14 5.48 0.12 3.2011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 4.66 0.29 7.89


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 3.66 3.66 100.00

Table 7Annual Component Contribution to Inflation

Dec. 2015

Page 14 of 14

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