Mark Campanale

Founder & Executive Director

Carbon Tracker Initiative !“Beyond Fossil Fuel Investment - Developments in the Energy Sector” !28 October 2014

“…an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds… (it) up-ends most of the conventional political thinking about climate change. And it allows us to understand our precarious position with…. simple numbers”. Bill McKibben

A movement out of nowhere…..

May 2014: Stanford to divest from coal companies June 2014: British Medical Association votes to divest from fossil fuels July 2014: World Council of Churches pulls fossil fuel investments Sept 2014: Rockefellers, Heirs to an Oil Fortune, Will Divest of Fossil Fuels Oct 2014: Glasgow first university in Europe to divest from fossil fuels Oct 2014: Australian National University dumps mining stocks

Divestment gains momentum

Climate March, during Climate Week NYC 2014

Carbon Bubble burst on horns of Wall Street bull

°C Budget: broken in just few decades?

80% probability limiting to 2C; IPCC estimate

2031 2045

Growing capex, falling production

Wall Street Journal, Jan 2014

Coal equities down 50% over last five yearsIn

dex

Valu

e (r

ebas

ed t

o 10

0)

0

45

90

135

180

Aug-09Mar-10Oct-10Jun-11Jan-12Aug-12Apr-13Nov-13Jun-14

8Note: Bloomberg Global Coal Index encompasses 32 large coal producers. Source: Bloomberg LP, CTI/ETA analysis 2014 !

MSCI World Energy Index = 149

MSCI World Index = 163

Bloomberg Global Coal Index = 49

• The capital costs of fossil fuel projects is on the rise whilst the cost of clean energy is falling;

• Many high-cost/high-carbon projects are destroying value today, putting over $1 trillion at risk over the next decade;

• The financial risks rise dramatically, to over $20 trillion by 2050, in a world of ambitious climate policies.

• This is potentially wasted capital !

Talking points & research are to be found at  www.carbontracker.org

Key Observations

" We think that a decision to no longer invest in oil, coal and gas companies will not contribute to a reduction in the use of fossil fuels and therefore does not contribute to a reduction in CO2 emissions.“ !Letter from Nicole Breech, Director of Administrative Bureau ABP on behalf of the board of Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP. 25-Sept-014 !How useful is divestment in itself, in addressing climate risk?

ABP: response to Fossil Free Netherlands letter regarding risks Carbon Bubble

Mark Campanale Founder & Executive Director

mark@carbontracker.org