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1 Heather Boushey Washington Center for Equitable Growth Testimony Before the House Committee on Ways and Means Tax Reform Forum September 27, 2017 Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today about tax reform. In my testimony, I will first set the stage for the tax reform debate by reviewing the longer-term economic challenges facing American families, including slow income growth and rising inequality. I will then turn to the substance of tax reform. My comments will be motivated by a simple idea: the focus of reform should be the living standards of American families, particularly middle-class families and families striving to reach the middle class. This simple idea leads me to three key points: • Tax reform should raise revenue and – at a bare minimum – should not lose revenue. The purpose of the tax system, as with public policy in general, is to support the living standards of American families. Core to this purpose is raising the revenues necessary to finance the investments in children and families, the social insurance programs, and the many other basic governmental functions that support our quality of life. Indeed, with an aging population, government revenues will need to increase. If tax reform becomes tax cuts, Congress will need to reverse those cuts in the future or the resulting revenue losses will force cuts to core programs. o When tax cuts are financed by higher deficits, the consequences for the programs and services that we rely on are obscured because the cuts are not immediate. However, unless Congress reverses the cuts, in which case it would make more sense simply not to enact them in the first place, the bill will eventually come due in the form of Medicaid cuts, Medicare or Social Security cuts, reductions in discretionary spending, or some combination of the above. o In addition, if the cost of tax cuts is obscured by adding to the deficit rather than identifying programmatic cuts to finance them, most economic models suggest that they will impose an additional cost on the economy: increasing interest rates and crowding out private-sector investment. Note that this cost is in addition to the eventual need for spending cuts or tax increases; it does not eliminate the need for those offsets. • Given the dramatic divergence of income growth between families with the highest incomes and those below them, tax reform should provide no net tax cut for the most fortunate Americans and any economic gains realized from reform should benefit working and middle- class families, not the wealthy. Well-designed, revenue-neutral and revenue-raising tax reform can generate economic gains with which to improve the standard of living for American families. Congress will determine which families see an increase in their standard of living and how large that increase is by the choices members make in designing reform. Evaluating potential reforms thus requires serious estimates of the impact of reform on after-tax incomes across the income distribution from nonpartisan analysts. It should be a condition of reform that the economic gains benefit working and middle-class families, not the wealthy.

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HeatherBousheyWashingtonCenterforEquitableGrowth

TestimonyBeforetheHouseCommitteeonWaysandMeansTaxReformForumSeptember27,2017

Thankyoufortheopportunitytospeaktoyoutodayabouttaxreform.Inmytestimony,Iwillfirstsetthestageforthetaxreformdebatebyreviewingthelonger-termeconomicchallengesfacingAmericanfamilies,includingslowincomegrowthandrisinginequality.Iwillthenturntothesubstanceoftaxreform.Mycommentswillbemotivatedbyasimpleidea:thefocusofreformshouldbethelivingstandardsofAmericanfamilies,particularlymiddle-classfamiliesandfamiliesstrivingtoreachthemiddleclass.Thissimpleidealeadsmetothreekeypoints:

• Taxreformshouldraiserevenueand–atabareminimum–shouldnotloserevenue.Thepurposeofthetaxsystem,aswithpublicpolicyingeneral,istosupportthelivingstandardsofAmericanfamilies.Coretothispurposeisraisingtherevenuesnecessarytofinancetheinvestmentsinchildrenandfamilies,thesocialinsuranceprograms,andthemanyotherbasicgovernmentalfunctionsthatsupportourqualityoflife.Indeed,withanagingpopulation,governmentrevenueswillneedtoincrease.Iftaxreformbecomestaxcuts,Congresswillneedtoreversethosecutsinthefutureortheresultingrevenuelosseswillforcecutstocoreprograms.

o Whentaxcutsarefinancedbyhigherdeficits,theconsequencesfortheprogramsandservicesthatwerelyonareobscuredbecausethecutsarenotimmediate.However,unlessCongressreversesthecuts,inwhichcaseitwouldmakemoresensesimplynottoenacttheminthefirstplace,thebillwilleventuallycomedueintheformofMedicaidcuts,MedicareorSocialSecuritycuts,reductionsindiscretionaryspending,orsomecombinationoftheabove.

o Inaddition,ifthecostoftaxcutsisobscuredbyaddingtothedeficitratherthanidentifyingprogrammaticcutstofinancethem,mosteconomicmodelssuggestthattheywillimposeanadditionalcostontheeconomy:increasinginterestratesandcrowdingoutprivate-sectorinvestment.Notethatthiscostisinadditiontotheeventualneedforspendingcutsortaxincreases;itdoesnoteliminatetheneedforthoseoffsets.

• Giventhedramaticdivergenceofincomegrowthbetweenfamilieswiththehighestincomes

andthosebelowthem,taxreformshouldprovidenonettaxcutforthemostfortunateAmericansandanyeconomicgainsrealizedfromreformshouldbenefitworkingandmiddle-classfamilies,notthewealthy.Well-designed,revenue-neutralandrevenue-raisingtaxreformcangenerateeconomicgainswithwhichtoimprovethestandardoflivingforAmericanfamilies.Congresswilldeterminewhichfamiliesseeanincreaseintheirstandardoflivingandhowlargethatincreaseisbythechoicesmembersmakeindesigningreform.Evaluatingpotentialreformsthusrequiresseriousestimatesoftheimpactofreformonafter-taxincomesacrosstheincomedistributionfromnonpartisananalysts.Itshouldbeaconditionofreformthattheeconomicgainsbenefitworkingandmiddle-classfamilies,notthewealthy.

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• Taxreformshouldpreserveandexpandtheevidence-backedrefundabletaxcreditsthathelpworkingfamilies,whilerealizingthatthesedonoteliminatetheneedfordirectinvestmentinprogramsandservicesthathelpthesefamiliesthrive.TaxreformthathelpsworkingfamilieswillmaintainandexpandinvestmentsintheChildTaxCreditandtheEarnedIncomeTaxCredit,butCongressstillneedstoinvestinotherprogramsandservicesthathelpchildrenthriveandhelpfamiliesstayattachedtothelaborforce.Moreover,asnotedabove,ifincludedinarevenue-losingpackage,taxcutsforworkingandmiddle-classfamiliesmayofferanapparentboost,butthespendingcutsortaxincreasesnecessarytofinancethemwillmostlikelymakethesefamiliesworseoffonnet,particularlyifthepriceofexpandedbenefitsforworkingandmiddle-classfamiliesisadditionalbenefitsforhigher-incomefamilies.

Reformthatmeetstheserequirementswouldincreaselivingstandardsforworkingandmiddle-classfamiliesandthusdeliverequitablegrowth.Adequaterevenuestomeetthegovernment’sspendingcommitmentswouldensurethatAmericanscontinuetobenefitfromessentialgovernmentprograms.Eliminatingwastefulloopholesinthetaxsystemandusingtheresultingeconomicgainstobenefitworkingandmiddle-classfamilieswouldprovideamuch-neededlifttothosewhoseincomeshavegrowntheleastinrecentdecades.

TheContextforTaxReform:RisingInequalityandSlowGrowthinIncomes

Thestoryofrecentdecadesisrapidlyincreasingincomesatthetopoftheincomedistribution,slowgrowthinincomesinthemiddle,andverylittlegrowthatthebottom.TheeconomistsThomasPiketty,EmmanuelSaez,andGabrielZucmanestimatethataverageannualpre-taxincomegrowthforthetop0.001percentofthepopulationhasbeen6percentperyearsince1980whileincomeshavefallenoutrightforthebottom20percentofthepopulation.Aftertaxes,averageannualincomegrowthforthetop0.001percentofthepopulationwasstillabout6percent,whileroughlythebottomhalfofthedistributionexperiencedgrowthoflessthan1percentperyear(Figure1).

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Compoundedovertimethesegrowthratescorrespondtoradicallydifferentincomelevels.Since1980,overallincomeshavegrown61percentwhilepre-taxincomesforthetop0.001percenthavegrown636percentandpre-taxincomesforthetop1percent(includingthetop0.001percent)areup204percent.Aftertaxes,growthratesarenearlyashigh.Incomesforthetop0.001percentareup616percentandincomesforthetop1percentareup194percent.Theflipsideofthefaster-than-averagegrowthatthetopisslowgrowthatthebottom(Figure2).Incomesforthebottom50percentofadultsareup1percentbeforetaxandonly21percentaftertax.

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ThesefindingsarebroadlysimilartoestimatesproducedbytheCongressionalBudgetOffice,thoughtheseestimatesdonotprovidethesamelevelofdetailintheextremeuppertail(Figure3).After-taxincomesincreased192percentbetween1979and2013accordingtoCBOwhileincomesforthemiddle-threequintilesofthedistributionincreased41percent.CBOshowssomewhatfastergrowthfortheverybottomthandothePiketty-Saez-Zucmanestimates,at46percent.

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Theseestimateshighlightthesharpincreaseinincomeinequalityinrecentdecades.However,thereislittlereasonforustoacceptthelevelofinequalitythatprevailedaround1980astheideallevel.In1979,theaverageincomeforthetop1percentwas$355,000(in2013dollars)andtheaverageincomeforthemiddlequintileofthepopulationwas$45,000,accordingtotheCBOestimates.Anequalpercentagepointincreaseinincomethatpreservedthelevelofinequalitythatexistedin1979wouldstillhaveimpliedrealincomegrowthforthetop1percentthatexceededthatofthemiddlequintilebyafactorofseven.

In2013,thelastyearavailableintheCBOdata,theaverageincomeforthetop1percentwasover$1millionandtheaverageincomeofthemiddlequintilewas$61,000.Thishighlevelofinequalityisharmfulforoursociety,andweshouldnotacceptit.Taxreformshouldreduceinequality.Thelastthingweshoulddoisincreaseinequalitybygivinglargetaxcutstothefortunatefewwhoseincomeshaveincreasedsomuchinrecentdecades.

Taxreformshouldraiserevenueand–atabareminimum–shouldnotloserevenue.

Thepurposeofthetaxsystem,aswithpublicpolicymorebroadly,istosupportthelivingstandardsofAmericanfamilies.Coretothispurposeisraisingtherevenuesnecessarytofinancethesocialinsuranceprograms,theinvestmentsinchildrenandfamilies,andtheotherspendingcommitmentsthatsupportourqualityoflife.Indeed,withanagingpopulation,governmentrevenueswillneedtoincrease.

Thedistributionoffederalspendingishighlyprogressive.Thoughdated,aCongressionalBudgetOfficeanalysisoffederalspendingin2006concludedthatnonelderlyfamiliesinthebottomincomequintilebenefittedfromfederalspendingequaltoeither130or200percentofincomedependingonthemethodologyusedwhilefamiliesinthetopquintilebenefittedfromspendingequaltoeither5or12percentofincome(Figure4).CBOdidnotconductananalysisofelderlyhouseholdsacrosstheincomedistribution.However,whilespendingontheelderlyislikelytobelessprogressivethanspendingonthenonelderlyitwouldalmostcertainlybeprogressiveoverall.

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Deficit-financedtaxcutsobscuretheirtruecostbyavoidinganexplicitstatementofwhatthespendingcutsortaxincreasesrequiredtopayforthemwillbe.However,iftaxreformbecomestaxcuts,Congresswillneedtoreversethosecutsinthefutureortheresultingrevenuelosseswillforcecutstocoreprograms.Giventhestronglyprogressivenatureoffederalspending,spendingcutswilldisproportionatelyharmworkingandmiddle-classfamilies.

Toillustratethehiddenharmsofdeficit-financedtaxcuts,considertheestimatesfromtheTaxPolicyCentershowingpossibilitiesforhowthedeficitsresultingfromtheAprilversionoftheTrumpadministration’staxplancouldbeoffset.Iftaxcutsarepaidforbyimposinganequalcost,indollars,onallhouseholds,familiesinthebottomquintilewouldseetheirincomesdecreasebymorethan15percent,familiesinthemiddle-quintilewouldseetheirincomesdecreaseby3percent,andfamiliesinthetopquintilewouldseetheirincomesgoupby4percent(Figure5).Theimpactcouldbeevenmoreregressiveif,forexample,taxcutsarepaidforbythekindsofsevereMedicaidcutsreflectedineachversionofRepublicanhealthcarelegislationconsideredthisyear.

Evenifweassumethattheultimatecostsoftaxcutswillfallonfamiliesinproportiontotheirincomes,theultimateimpactofthetaxcutwillbetoreduceincomesonaverageineachofthebottomfourquintilesandtoincreaseincomesinthetopquintile.

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Inaddition,ifthecostoftaxcutsisobscuredbyaddingtothedeficitratherthanidentifyingprogrammaticcutstofinancethem,mosteconomicmodelssuggestthattheywillimposeanadditionalcostontheeconomy:increasinginterestratesandcrowdingoutprivate-sectorinvestment.Thisisarealissuethatshouldbeincludedinthedynamicanalysisofdeficit-financedtaxcuts.However,thecentralrolethisissuehastakenonreflectsamisguidedemphasisresultingfromtheincreaseduseofdynamicscoring.Bywayofanalogy,itislikeborrowing$1millionfromthebankandworryingnotaboutwhetheryoucanpaybackthe$1million,norwhetheryoucanpaybacktheinterestonthe$1million,butwhetheryourloanwillcausethebanktoincreasetheinterestrateitchargesonotherloans.

CongressshouldensurethatthereisnonettaxcutforthemostfortunateAmericansandthattheeconomicgainsfromtaxreformarerealizedbyworkingandmiddle-classfamilies.

Well-designedtaxreformcangenerateimprovementsinthestandardoflivingforAmericanfamilies.Congresswilldeterminewhichfamiliesseeanincreaseintheirstandardoflivingandhowlargethatincreaseisbythechoicesmembersmakeindesigningreform.Evaluatingpotentialreformsthusrequiresseriousestimatesoftheimpactofreformonafter-taxincomesacrosstheincomedistributionfromnonpartisananalysts.

ThecriterionbywhichtaxreformshouldbejudgedisthatthereisnonettaxcutforthemostfortunateAmericansandthatanyefficiencygainsfromtaxreformareusedtobenefitworkingandmiddle-classfamilies.Todeterminewhetherreformmeetsthiscriterionwillrequiredistributiontablesthatshowtheimpactofpotentialreformsonafter-taxincomes.Thesetablesmustbefreeoftheimpactofgimmicksandexcludegainsattributabletoincreasedfederalborrowing.

Unfortunately,notaxreformplanputforwardbyHouseRepublicansortheTrumpadministrationtothispointwouldmeetthistest.Everyplanhasprovidedlargegainstothemostfortunate,littleor

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nothingtoworkingandmiddle-classfamilies,andreliedonhigherdeficitstogenerateeventhesemodestgains.

TheblueprintfortaxreformreleasedbyHouseRepublicansin2016,forexample,wouldhaveboostedincomesforthetop1percentby13percentintheyearafterenactmentwhileincreasingincomesforthebottom95percentoffamiliesbylessthanhalfofonepercent(Figure6).Insubsequentyears,high-incomefamilieswouldbenefitsomewhatless,butmanyfamiliesoutsidethetop5percentwouldbemadeworseoff.Moreover,asnotedabove,mostfamilieswouldbeworseoffinallyearsafteraccountingforspendingcutsoroffsettingtaxincreasestoeliminatethedeficits.

TheseestimatesoftheimpactoftheHouseblueprintreportthepercentchangeinafter-taxincome.However,anequalpercentchangeinafter-taxincomeacrosstheincomedistributionwouldmeanthatthegainsforthetop1percentoffamiliesaremorethan20timesthegainsformiddle-classfamilies.Indeed,expressedindollarsthedisparityinthebenefitsoftheHouseblueprintisevenmorestriking(Table1).Familiesinthetop1percentwouldseetheirafter-taxincomesincreasebymorethan$200,000whilefamiliesinthemiddlequintileoftheincomedistributionwouldseethemincreaseby$260.

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Thebenchmarkfortaxreformshouldnotbethatafamilywithafter-taxincomeof$6millionreceivesabenefitof$60,000forevery$600receivedbyafamilywithincomeof$60,000.Instead,Congressshouldenactreformthatdirectsalloftheefficiencygainsrealizedtothebenefitofworkingandmiddle-classfamiliesthusreducinginequalityandfulfillingthepromisesmadebyofficeholdersacrosstheideologicalspectrumthatthefocusoftheireffortswhileinofficewillbetheeconomicfortunesoftheAmericanmiddle-class.

Itisworthcomparingthisfocusonafter-taxincomeswithafocusoneconomicgrowthorGDP,whichisalsofrequentlyused.Asaneconomicmatter,measuresoftotaleconomicoutputandtotalincomeshouldbeequal.Thus,usinganoutput-basedmeasureofeconomicgrowthasthemeasureofreformratherthanincomesisnotprimarilyaboutthedifferencebetweenoutputandincome.

Themostimportantimpactoffocusingoneconomicgrowthratherthanthechangeinincomesacrossthedistributionisthatitimplicitlyadoptstheperspectivethatapolicythatincreasestheincomeofahouseholdmaking$1millionby$11,000ismorevaluablethanonethatdoublestheincomeofahouseholdmaking$10,000.Itdoesthisnotbydirectlyassertingthisvaluejudgment,butbyadoptingasummarymetricthatusesthisweighting.

Infact,ameasureofthelevelanddistributionofafter-taxincomesacrossthedistributionprovidesfarmoreinformationthanknowledgeofthelevelofoutput.Focusingonoutputgrowthisthusakintoputtingonblindersthatobscurethebroaderpicture.Whenincomeshavegrownbyabout600percentinthelastthree-plusdecadesattheverytopofthedistributionbutbyonly21percentinthebottomhalf,thereisnoreasontochooseanobjectivethatdoesnotfocusonincreasingthelivingstandardsofworkingandmiddle-classfamilies.

ThereisnothingcontroversialabouttheeconomicclaimsIammaking.Whiletherearenumerousdisagreementsabouttherightwaytomeasurethedistributionoftaxesandaboutwhatkindsoftax

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reformwillboostgrowthandhowlargeanygrowtheffectswillbe,thereisnodisagreementthatthedistributionofthebenefitsfromtaxreformwillbedeterminedbythestructureofthetaxreform,andthatifCongresschoosestoenactreformthatdirectsthebenefitstoworkingandmiddleclassfamiliesitcandoso.Putsimply,iftaxreformdirectsfargreaterbenefitstothewealthythanitdoestotheworkingandmiddle-classfamilies,itwillbebecauseCongresschosetodoso.

Taxreformshouldpreserveandexpandtheevidence-backedrefundabletaxcreditsthathelpworkingfamilies,whilerealizingthatthesedonoteliminatetheneedfordirectinvestmentinprogramsandservicesthathelpthesefamiliesthrive.

CongressshouldpreserveandexpandevidencebackedrefundabletaxcreditsliketheEarnedIncomeTaxCreditandtheChildTaxCredit,whileevaluatingtheseexpansionsinthecontextofthebroadertaxpackageinwhichtheyareapart.However,expandingthesecreditswouldnottaketheplaceofdesperatelyneededincreasesininvestmentsinchildcare,paidfamilyleave,andjobtraining.TheEarnedIncomeTaxCreditisdesignedtoencourageandrewardwork,reducepoverty,andprovideassistancetostrugglingfamilies.Thecreditisrefundable,whichmeansthemanyfamilieswhoseincomesaretoolowtogeneratesubstantialfederalincometaxobligationscanstillbenefit.AccordingtotheCenteronBudgetandPolicyPriorities,theEarnedIncomeTaxCreditlifted6.5millionpeople,including3.3millionchildren,outofpovertyin2015.TheChildTaxCredit,whichisonlypartiallyrefundable,alsoprovidesfamilieswithasignificanteconomicboost.Itprovidesworkerswithchildrenataxcreditofupto$1,000perchildandliftedabout2.8millionpeopleoutofpoverty,includingabout1.6millionchildren,in2015.OnepotentialcomponentofataxpackagethisfallwouldbeaCTCexpansionthatfocusesonhelpinglow-tomoderate-incomefamilies.TheseimprovementsshouldincludemeasuressuchasallowingfamiliestoreceiveaCTCrefundfromthefirstdollarofincomeandsubstantiallyincreasingthephase-inrateormakingthecreditfullyrefundable.AnyCTCexpansionshouldincludeaparticularfocusonthepoorestfamiliesandtheyoungestchildrengiventheevidencethatsuggeststhatthebenefitsofadditionalincome—includingimprovedhealthoutcomes,increasededucationalattainment,andhigherexpectedearningsasadults—areclearestforthatgroup.However,therealityisthatimprovingtheEITCandCTCwouldnottaketheplaceofdesperatelyneededincreasesininvestmentsinchildcareorpaidfamilyleave.Withaveragechildcarecostsrangingfrom$3,000to$17,000peryear,expandedtaxcreditsarenotthebestapproachtodealwiththisexpense.Forexample,aCTCexpansionorotherattemptstomakechildcaremoreaffordablethroughthetaxcodewouldnotaddressissueswithaccesstohighqualityreliablechildcare.Addressingfamilies’childcareneedsrequiressignificantpublicinvestmentsinthechildcaresystemasawhole.Anotherpotentialcomponentofataxpackagewouldbeataxcreditforbusinessesthatofferpaidleave.Thesekindsoftaxcreditscanbeineffectiveatincreasingthenumberofemployersofferingpaidleave,especiallyforlow-wageworkers,andthusservetoprovidetaxcutstoemployersthatalreadydo.However,evenwhileineffectiveinincreasingaccesstopaidleave,thecostofthetaxcutswouldstillrequirecutsinotherservicesoroffsettingtaxincreasestopayforthem.Proposalslikethesemayonlyexacerbateinequalitybyofferingtaxcreditstoemployerswhohavealreadyacknowledgedthatthereisvalueofferingpaidleave.

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Moreover,asnotedabove,ifincludedinarevenue-losingpackage,taxcutsforworkingandmiddle-classfamiliesmayofferanapparentboost,butthespendingcutsortaxincreasesnecessarytofinancethemwillmostlikelymakethesefamiliesworseoff,particularlyifthepriceofexpandedbenefitsforworkingandmiddle-classfamiliesisadditionalbenefitsforhigher-incomefamilies.


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