systems thinking workshop, given at lean ux nyc

Making sense of messy problems

Johanna Kollmann@johannakoll

Lean UX NYC 2013

Systems thinking for complex business models

Illustration by David Wicks: http://www.flickr.com/photos/sansumbrella/467998944/

Intro about me: worked on a range of complex systems such as a voice communica;on system for the NASA, before learning more about systems thinking as part of my HCI degree in London. Interest in systems theory and organisa;onal structures remained when I was consul;ng, e.g. a large retailer who was reshaping their en;re business and data structure to enable mul;-‐channel. While geFng interested in business models and the startup world, I realised that systems thinking is also core to business models, lean manufacturing, and lean startup.

The next 2 hours of your life:

Introduction to Systems Thinking

Tools for modeling systems

Systems behavior over time

Changing systems

Systems Thinking?

Why you should care about it

Increasing complexi;es and dependencies require us to think holis;cally.We need to think dynamic and over ;me rather than sta;c and short-‐lived Technology and business context changes.

ST is relevant to both UX and LS.

In the past the man has been first; in the future the system must be first.

~ Frederick Winslow Taylor (1911)

father of scien;fic management and efficiency movement

In the past the man has been first; in the future the system must be first.

This in no sense, however, implies that great men are not needed.

~Frederick Winslow Taylor (1911)

According to Eric Ries, forgeFng the human part has led to 2 problems: 1) overly rigid business systems that failed to take advantage of adaptability, crea;vity, and wisdom of individual workers 2) overemphasis on planning, preven;on and procedure, which enable organisa;ons to achieve consistent results in a stable world.

“At the root of every seemingly technical problem is a human problem.”

~ Taiichi Ohno

http://visitmix.com/work/descry/awebsitenameddesire/

The systems we deal with in the world of a websiteRunning a business is taking this to a different level -‐ being a founder is taking the running around and coordina;ng to a different level!

“Systems-‐based thinking is the process of understanding how things influence one another.

Then drawing on that knowledge to create efficiencies of process, infrastructure and communication.”

~ Abby Covert

“A system is

~ Donella Meadows

a set of elements or parts

oZen classified as its func;on or purpose.”

that is coherently organized and inter-‐connected in a pa\ern or structure that produces a characteris;c set of behaviors,

Peter Checkland

Human activity systemsSoft Systems Methodology

Examples: hard system = thermostat, motherboard. soZ system = game of poker, soccer game, mee;ng, healthcare.

He developed the “soZ systems methodology”, sugges;ng that most problems in systems are caused because “human beings are hard to predict”. He did not think that there were things you could “fix” with systems thinking, instead there were “situa;ons you could improve”.

4 ac;vi;es of SSM:-‐ Finding out about the situa;on-‐ Making purposeful ac;vity models based on par;cular world views.-‐ Using the models to ques;on the situa;on-‐ Defining ac;on to improve the situa;on.

Leverage points…

…places within a complex system where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything.

…are often counterintuitive.

Systems Thinking & UX

1) Modeling

2) Behavior over time

3) Change

1) Modeling

“Only by building a model of customer behaviour and then showing our ability to use our product or service to change it over time can we establish real facts about the validity of our vision.”

~ Eric Ries

Personas from Design Jam London, by Jeff Van Campen http://www.flickr.com/photos/otrops/tags/designjamlondon/

This is where UX offers lots of tools: personas, customer journey maps; Lean Startup’s hypothesis-‐driven approach also is modeling.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/otrops/tags/designjamlondon/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/otrops/tags/designjamlondon/

Flickr User Model by Bryce Glass http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryce/58299511/

Models help us understand how things work.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryce/58299511/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryce/58299511/

1) Modeling 2) Behavior over time 3) Change

Rich Picture

1. Construction of the Humber Bridge (adapted from Stewart and Fortune, 1994) © The Open University

2. Distance Learning Situation © Wood-‐Harper et al, Information Systems Definition: The Multiview Approach, Blackwell Scientific Publications 1985


Rich Picture elements

Stakeholders

Worldview

Connections

Conflicts


Worldview is a concept for empathy

Consider:

-‐ roles that people adopt in the situa;on (which may be formally recognised or quite informal); the norms which govern people’s behaviour; and the values they espouse.-‐ poli;cal aspects of the situa;on, in other words recogni;on of the different interests that are represented and how these different interests are accommodated.


Rich Picture elements

Stakeholders

Worldview

Connections

Conflicts



Business Model Canvas

Job seekers

Recruiters

Jobs

Candidates

Manage, promote platform

Platform

Manage and develop platformMarketing costs

Job adsHiring fee

2) Behavior over time


Flows

inflow outflow

informationfeedback, control

stock

Bath tub example -‐ overflow pipe

2 types of flows.

First one is material and stock flows. Stocks change over ;me through the ac;ons of flow. Stocks act as buffers or delays, and help a system to stay in balance.You can also apply this to people. Shows limits to growth if your resources aren’t endless. Key is to understand and monitor system behaviour over ;me. Do not focus on only individual events.

The second type are informa;on flows. While it’s hard to changephysical structure, materials, resources, changing how informa;on isdistributed and presented in a system can have major impact.

"Informa;on holds systems together and plays a great role in determining how they operate. Most of what goes wrong in systems goes wrong because of biased, late, or missing informa;on." (Meadows)

Adding or restoring informa;on can be a powerful interven;on, usually much easier and cheaper than rebuilding physical infrastructure.

Notes on John Seddon: interes;ng to consider how customer inquiries/feedback come in and flow through the system


Feedback loops

George’s ability to solve problems

Number of problems solved

Number of remaining problems

Time available per problem

Project in trouble

Management pressure to solve

problems

R1 R3

R2

Need to involve Paul

B1

Reinforcing feedback loopsA posi;ve feedback loop is self-‐reinforcing. The more it works, the more it gains power to work some more.Posi;ve feedback loops drive growth, explosion, erosion, and collapse in systems. A system with an unchecked posi;ve loop ul;mately will destroy itself. Usually nega;ve feedback loop kicks in, eg epidemic runs out of infectable people—or people take increasingly strong steps to avoid being infected.

Reducing the gain around a posi;ve loop—slowing the growth—is usually a more powerful leverage point in systems than strengthening nega;ve loops, and much preferable to leFng the posi;ve loop run.(...) control must involve slowing down the posi;ve feedbacks.

Balancing feedback loop A nega;ve feedback loop needs a goal and a response mechanism. Self-‐correct the system, oZen inac;ve = emergency mechanisms. Seem costly as inac;ve, removing them has li\le impact in the short-‐term, neglect the long-‐term impact.Here are some other examples of strengthening nega;ve feedback controls to improve a system's self-‐correc;ng abili;es: preven;ve medicine, exercise, and good nutri;on to bolster the body's ability to fight disease, pollu;on taxes.

The informa;on delivered by a feedback loop -‐ even nonphysical feedback -‐ can only affect future behaviour; it can't deliver a signal fast enough to correct behaviour that drove the current feedback. There will always be delays in responding.The loop that dominates the system will determine the behaviour.

Consider the driving factors, how they might behave, and what drives them.! Dynamic systems studies are not designed to predict what will happen, but to explore what would happen if... -‐-‐> system dynamics models explore possible futures and ask 'what if' ques;ons.

Causal Loop Diagrams help reveal system dynamics. Crea;ng the diagrams involves more work than reading them, but can be done by anyone willing to take ;me to think things through and look for rela;onships. For example, what problems might arise by involving help? Is it possible that things will get worse before they get be\er? And why would that be?


Behavior over time graphs

inventory

days

perfect informa;on scenario


Behavior over time graphs

inventory

days

what really happens

What came before?

What might happen next?

Focus on trends over ;me rather than single events.

Learn if the system is approaching a goal or limit.Inventory = stock (could also be informa;on)


Cohort analysis


Cohort analysis

Eric writes: Cohort analysis: This technique is useful in many types of business, because every company depends for its survival on sequences of customer behaviour called flows. Customer flows govern the interac;on of customers with a company's products. They allow us to understand a business quan;ta;vely and have much more predic;ve power than do tradi;onal gross metrics.p 145 Cohort-‐based reports are the gold standard of learning metrics: they turn complex ac;ons into people-‐based reports.


Custom tools to monitor interactions

by @lukew


Photo by Anders Zakrisson http://www.flickr.com/photos/anders-‐zakrisson/4982281184/

Talking to people, empathy, intui;on

DATA

MEANINGhumanise the data – tell a story

Informa;on flows enable other things in the system to happen

Consider the feedback loops

Observe customer behavior over ;me

Use qualita;ve findings and your gut

3) Change


inventory

days

Flows and loops

Donella Meadows also says that its quite tricky to properly monitor a system and react appropriately, because the delays in observing, and then the delay in ac;ng means that by the ;me your change goes into place, the system is probably in a different state. Its easy to over compensate. It seems to me that you need to try to get both stats as real-‐;me as possible, and gain a good understanding of natural flows over ;me. shiZ a\en;on from the abundant factors to the next poten;al limi;ng factor. layer of limits.

If a decision point in a system (which can be a person) is responding to delayed informa;on, or responding with a delay, the decision will be off target. Ac;on taken too fast can cause unnecessary instability.

When there are long delays in feedback loops, some sort of foresight is essen;al. To act only when a problem becomes obvious is to miss an important opportunity to solve the problem.

genchi gembutsu from Lean: understands that a small change can affect the overall system. the person close to the problem is trusted with solving it. You have to 'go and see for yourself'. don’t change your strategy on a whim!


systems with different users: consider how role changes will impact everything. Some of this is quite hard to implement! Understand the system structure you’re building! Work with developers who draw diagrams about the soZware system, so you also understand technical legacies and ripple effects.

9. Numbers (subsidies, taxes, standards).

8. Material stocks and flows.

7. Regulating negative feedback loops.

6. Driving positive feedback loops.

5. Information flows.

4. The rules of the system (incentives, punishment, constraints).

3. The power of self-‐organization.

2. The goals of the system.

1. The mindset or paradigm out of which the goals, rules, feedback structure arise.


Leverage points

Take-‐aways

The ‘worldviews’ that people and elements in the system hold

The processes that are necessary to deliver value to customers

How to gather and visualize information holistically

How user-‐centered design and empathy help to reduce uncertainty

What is the right level for the impact you are aiming for?

What enables the change, where are conflicts, who can be your change agent?

This matters because

Business trends.

Humane systems.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.

We will not solve the problems of the world from the same level of thinking we were at when we created them. More than anything else, this new century demands new thinking:

We must change our materially based analyses of the world around us to include broader, more multidimensional perspectives.

~Albert Einstein

Resources

The Lean Startup by Eric Ries

Systems Thinking, Systems Practice and Soft Systems Methodology by Peter Checkland

Thinking in Systems: A Primer by Donella Meadows

Business Model Generation by Alexander Osterwalder and Yves Pigneur

Donella Meadow’s article Places to Intervene in a System can be found at http://www.developerdotstar.com/mag/articles/places_intervene_system.html

Peter Senge is a key systems thinker, I haven’t included any of his material directly, but read about this perspectives especially on organisational change. Check him out.

For the design geek in you, read up on Buckminster Fuller’s Design Science.