Systems Theory & Thinking

Familiar Systems

Rube Goldberg “System”

So…how would you define a “system”?

And what are its characteristics?

Organizational “Learning Disabilities” (Senge, 1991)

• “I am my position” – lack of responsibility for outcomes when several positions interact. Especially true of vendors who have a product that may not work for others

• “The enemy is out there”– blame things outside ourselves when things go wrong to avoid responsibility as a change agent

• The illusion of taking charge– we are usually reacting even when we call it proactive.

• Fixation on events– overlooking gradual and subtle processes that lead to the events

• Parable of the boiled frog– we accommodate to stresses which become the new norm and overlook counter-intuitive solutions

• The delusion of learning from experience– learning involves knowledge (application) nor just information; novel challenges may be unrelated to previous experience and require new constructions

• The myth of the management team– they may become preoccupied in turf wars, presume their expertise, and be subject to groupthink

1. Today's problems come from yesterday's solutions.

2. The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back.

3. Behavior grows better before it grows worse. 4. The easy way out usually leads back in. 5. The cure can be worse than the disease. 6. Faster is slower. 7. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space. 8. Small changes can produce big results--but the areas of highest leverage

are often the least obvious.9. You can have your cake and eat it too--but not all at once. 10. Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants. 11. There is no blame.

Systems Principles

Some Systems Examples

MexicoIndia/China

MynahTurtle Dove

Lantanacamara Plant

Agromyzid Fly

Larvae

Crowd out native

speciesFewer birds

Rising army worm

population

Grassland destruction

Sugarcane destruction

Eradication of Lantana

makes room for even more

invasive species

Insufficient cattle

grazingFinancial disaster

Seeds Berries

In Hawaii in the 1920s gardeners enthusiastically began propagating the Lantana camara flowering plant that had been imported from Mexico and South America. The attractive flower grew well in the climate and became quite popular.

MexicoIndia/China

MynahTurtle Dove

Lantanacamara Plant

Seeds Berries

Agromyzid Fly

Larvae

Crowd out native

speciesFewer birds

Rising army worm

population

Grassland destruction

Sugarcane destruction

Eradication of Lantana

makes room for even more

invasive species

Insufficient cattle

grazingFinancial disaster

By 1926 more imports entered Hawaii in the form of mynah birds from India and turtle doves from China. The new immigrants found the lantana berries to their liking, and what had been limited to local gardens now became distributed throughout the Hawaiian islands through the bird droppings. In the wild the lantana quickly crowded out local plants, similar to the purple loosestrife invasion in Minnesota in the 1990s. The agricultural agencies had to react.

MexicoIndia/China

MynahTurtle Dove

Lantanacamara Plant

Seeds Berries

Agromyzid Fly

Larvae

Crowd out native

speciesFewer birds

Rising army worm

population

Grassland destruction

Sugarcane destruction

Eradication of Lantana

makes room for even

more invasive species

Insufficient cattle

grazingFinancial disaster

Their research showed that the agromyzid fly would lay its larvae in the berries of the lantana and thereby destroy the seeds, which subsequently would reduce propagation of the plant. There was little additional risk from the agromyzid fly and all seemed well for the context of the defined problem– how to get rid of the lantana.

MexicoIndia/China

MynahTurtle Dove

Lantanacamara Plant

Seeds Berries

Agromyzid Fly

Larvae

Crowd out native

speciesFewer birds

Rising army worm

population

Grassland destruction

Sugarcane destruction

Eradication of Lantana

makes room for even

more invasive species

Insufficient cattle

grazingFinancial disaster

The effort would likely have been successful if only they would have considered greater systemic linkages and effects. The lantana had been very successful in its invasion, and as it was eliminated, having crowded out native plants, it actually created a void for other even more invasive plants to insert. But that was not all.

MexicoIndia/China

MynahTurtle Dove

Lantanacamara Plant

Seeds Berries

Agromyzid Fly

Larvae

Crowd out native

speciesFewer birds

Rising army worm population

Grassland destruction

Sugarcane destructio

nEradication of Lantana

makes room for even

more invasive species

Insufficient cattle

grazingFinancia

l disaster

The most serious lack of consideration was the systemic effect on the birds that had been eating the lantana berries. Although the birds also ate army worms, all animals have fluctuations in their population, and it was during this time that army worms were on their decline, which left little food for the birds and their population dropped.

MexicoIndia/China

MynahTurtle Dove

Lantanacamara Plant

Seeds Berries

Agromyzid Fly

Larvae

Crowd out native

speciesFewer birds

Rising army worm population

Grassland destruction

Sugarcane destructio

nEradication of Lantana

makes room for even

more invasive species

Insufficient cattle

grazingFinancia

l disaster

As all cycles fluctuate, the worms returned but this time without birds to control their burgeoning population. The worms swarmed onto the grasslands where they damaged the graze of the large cattle populations, and damaged the sugar cane plantations, both of which caused significant financial damage.

MexicoIndia/China

MynahTurtle Dove

Lantanacamara Plant

Seeds

Agromyzid Fly

Larvae

Crowd out native

speciesFewer birds

Rising army worm

population

Grassland destruction

Sugarcane destruction

Eradication of Lantana

makes room for even more

invasive species

Insufficient cattle

grazingFinancial disaster

Berries

In the beginning the lantana eradication project was well-intentioned and even considered successful within its very limited scope. However, the case is also a good example of a solution becoming the next and even worse problem. A systems view would have likely been useful in preventing the so-called “problem after next.”

• Start anywhere. Pick the element, for instance, of most immediate concern.

• Any element may go up or down at various points in time. What has the element been doing at this moment? Try out language which describes the movement: As Acme's sales level goes up . . . goes down . . . improves . . . deteriorates. . . increases. . . decreases. . . rises. . . falls . . . soars . . . drops. . . waxes . . . wanes . . .

• Describe the impact this movement produces on the next element As Acme's sales level goes down, the number of efforts to sell new accounts goes up.

• Continue the story back to your starting place. Use phrases that show causal interrelationship: "This in turn, causes . . ." or ". . . which influences . . ." or ". . . then adversely affects . . ." As Acme's sales level goes down, the number of efforts to sell new accounts goes up. This means the level of service drops, which in turn influences sales to continue falling . . .

• Try not to tell the story in cut-and-dried, mechanistic fashion. When service problems rise, sales fall. As sales fall, sales force efforts rise. Instead, make it come alive. Add illustrations and short anecdotes so others know exactly what you mean.... This means the level of service drops. We just can't keep to the delivery schedules we promised. Loyal customers, in turn, become upset. Some stop doing business with us . . .

How to Tell the Story from a Loop

http://www.soundience.com/blog?id=10

• By combining the feedback loops, it becomes clear that staff workload is the crux of maintaining an effective organization:

• Overworked staff are more likely to leave, losing experience (and thus effectiveness) and increasing recruiting cost

• High workload impairs service quality, driving away customers

• High workload also increases the number of calls (because problems aren't resolved first time), making the problem even worse

• Thought processes and relationship dynamics are fundamental if change is to be successful.

• Change only happens when each person makes a decision to implement the change. • People fear change; it "happens" to them. • Given the freedom to do so, people will build quality into their work as a matter of

personal pride. • Traditional organizational systems treat people like children and expect them to act like

adults. • "Truth" is more important during periods of change and uncertainty than "good news.“ • Trust is earned by those who demonstrate consistent behavior and clearly defined

values. • People who work are capable of doing much more than they are doing. • The intrinsic rewards of a project are often more important than the material rewards

and recognition. • A clearly defined vision of the end result enables all the people to define the most

efficient path for accomplishing the results. • The more input people have into defining the changes that will affect their work, the

more they will take ownership for the results. • To change the individual, change the system.

Some principles for managing change

http://www.lynco.com/12prin.html

Systems Theory in Diagnosis & Intervention

• For a given problem or issue, what are the key components, events, people or operations involved? Any related, less obvious ones?

• Draw a concept map that shows the connections among these for the current issue

• Use a plus or minus sign to show whether the connection increases (contributes to) or decreases (limits or controls) the next link

• Identify and draw feedback loops

• Consider nodes for potential change intervention

• Trace the possible flow of impact downstream from the intervention

http://www.systems-thinking.org/index.htm Bellinger’s Mental Models website

Some excellent links

http://www.stsc.hill.af.mil/crosstalk/2004/03/0403West.html Applying ST in process development with emphasis on fixes that backfire and shifting the burden models

http://www.aces.ac.uk/PantanalInternationalNetwork.htm Causal loop diagram application to Brazil’s water problem

http://www.tonnievanderzouwen.nl/English%20version/methods4.html Overview of the causal loop archetypes

http://managementhelp.org/systems/systems.htm#anchor123477 McNamara’s Systems Thinking page

The End…not really, systems go on and on and…