syria print

8/3/2019 Syria Print

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Full name: The Syrian Arab Republic

Population: 22.5 million (UN, 2010)

Capital: Damascus

Area: 185,180 sq km (71,498 sq miles)

Major language: Arabic

Major religions: Islam, Christianity

Life expectancy: 74 years (men), 78 years (women) (UN)

Monetary unit: 1 Syrian pound = 100 piastres

Main exports: Oil, gas

GNI per capita: US $2,790 (World Bank, 2010)

Internet domain: .sy

International dialling code: +963

Once the centre of the Islamic Empire, Syria covers an area that has seen invasions and

occupations over the ages, from Romans and Mongols to Crusaders and Turks.

A country of fertile plains, and mountains and deserts, it is home to diverse ethnic and religiousgroups, including Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, Christians, Druze, Alawite Shias and ArabSunnis, the last of who make up a majority of the Muslim population.

Modern Syria gained its independence from France in 1946 but has lived through periods ofpolitical instability driven by the conflicting interests of these various groups.


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From 1958-61 it united with Nasser's Egypt, but an army coup restored independence before theAlawite-controlled pan-Arab Baath (Renaissance) party took control in 1963. It has ruled eversince, although the 2011 uprising has cast doubt on its longevity.

Baath government has seen authoritarian rule at home and a strong anti-Israeli policy abroad,particularly under President Hafez al-Assad from 1970. In 1967 Syria lost the Golan Heights toIsrael after the Arab defeat in the Six-Day War, but civil war in neighbouring Lebanon allowed itto extend its political and military influence.

Syria pulled its forces out of Lebanon in 2005, having come under intense international pressureto do so after the assassination of Lebanese former premier Rafik Hariri. A UN report implicatedSyrian and pro-Syria Lebanese officials in the killing. Damascus denied any involvement.

y Politics: Political power is held by a small elite, the opposition is repressed and the economyis centrally planned. The government is using violence to crack down on protests inspired bythe Arab Spring

y Economy: The government has made reform of its under-performing, state-run economy a toppriority

y International: Syria has become increasingly isolated over its handling of pro-reformprotests; Syria is one of Israel's most vocal antagonistsThe government has dealt harshly with domestic opposition. Tens of thousands are estimated tohave been killed in the crackdown on the 1982 uprising of the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama.

In 2011-12 security forces used tanks, gunfire and mass arrests to try to crush anti-governmentstreet protests inspired by the Arab Spring that toppled the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

Following the death of Hafez al-Assad in 2000 Syria underwent a brief period of relaxation.Hundreds of political prisoners were released, but real political freedoms and a shake-up of thestate-dominated economy never materialised.

On the world stage Syria has been increasingly isolated in recent years, having come under firefor its support for insurgents in Iraq and over its role in Lebanon.That isolation showed signs ofeasing after efforts by France to bring Syria back into the international fold in 2008, butallegations of Syria's violation of a UN ban on arming the Lebanese Hezbollah militia led to theextension of US sanctions in May 2010.

Further international sanctions were imposed amid the bloody crackdown on protesters in 2011-12. Syria is one of Israel's most intransigent opponents, and supports a number of armed groupsthat carry out attacks against Israel. Hopes for reconciliation have repeatedly foundered over theGolan Heights.


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President: Bashar al-Assad

Bashar al-Assad would probably have been working as an optician had his brother not died in acar accident in 1994.

The death of Basil - groomed to succeed his father, President Hafez al-Assad - catapulted theyounger brother into politics, and into the presidency after his father died in June 2000.

During his six-year political apprenticeship, Bashar al-Assad completed his military training, metArab and other leaders and got to know the movers and shakers in Syrian politics.

On taking office he ushered in a brief period of openness and cautious reform. Political prisonerswere released and restrictions on the media were eased. Political debate was tolerated and opencalls for freedom of expression and political pluralism were made.

But the pace of change alarmed the establishment - the army, the Baath party and the Alawiteminority. Fearing instability and perceiving a threat to their influence, they acted not only toslow it down, but to revert to the old ways.

A referendum in 2007 endorsed Bashar al-Assad as president for a second seven-year term. Hewas the only candidate.

Cracks in the tightly controlled political edifice began to appear in early 2011, in the wake of the"Arab Spring" wave of popular dissent that swept across North Africa and the Middle East.

Following successful uprisings against authoritarian rule in Egypt and Tunisia, demonstrationsthat only months earlier would have seemed unthinkable were held in Damascus and severalother cities, leading to bloody repression by the security forces.

President Assad appeared to make some concessions to the demonstrators in April 2011, by

lifting of the state of emergency of nearly 50 years and sacking the government. He angeredmany by accusing protesters of acting on behalf of Israel.

Renewed protests triggered further bloodshed and waves of repression. The United Nations saidthat by the beginning of November, at least 3,500 people had been killed since the unrest began.

In an unprecedented move the same month, the Arab League voted to suspend Syria after itfailed to implement its peace plan, and later demanded that President al-Assad should step down.Arab League efforts to have Syria censured in the UN Security Council were vetoed by Russiaand China in early 2012, but Arab states and the West continued to isolate Syria as the uprisingand repression continued.


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The government and ruling party own and control much of the media.

Criticism of the president and his family is banned and the domestic and foreign press arecensored. Journalists practice self-censorship and foreign reporters rarely get accreditation.

Private TV and radio stations cannot carry news or political content. Many viewers watch pan-Arab TV; there are no curbs on the use of satellite receivers.

Opposition satellite stations broadcast from abroad; they include London-based Barada TV andOrient TV, which operates from the UAE.

With nearly 4.5 million internet users in Syria by March 2011 (Internetworldstats.com), the webhas emerged as a vehicle for dissent.

The state exercises strict internet censorship and blocks many global websites with local appeal,including Facebook and YouTube, as well as opposition sites.

In the uprising that began in 2011, Syria's "cyber army" waged a "disinformation battle",spreading false information and engaging in hacking and phishing, said Reporters Without

Borders.

Anti-regime activists have used social media and online video platforms to tell the world abouttheir protests. Some of their footage has been used by mainstream news outlets.

Amid the unrest, many journalists and bloggers have fled the country. Those who remain riskdetention and physical attack.


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TIMELINE

A chronology of key events:

1918 October - Arab troops led by Emir Feisal, and supported by British forces, captureDamascus, ending 400 years of Ottoman rule.

1919 - Emir Feisal backs Arab self-rule at the Versailles peace conference, following the defeat

of Germany and the Ottoman Empire in World War I.

1919 June - Elections for a Syrian National Congress are held. The new assembly includesdelegates from Palestine.

1920 8 March - The National Congress proclaims Emir Feisal king of Syria "in its naturalboundaries" from the Taurus mountains in Turkey to the Sinai desert in Egypt.

French control1920 June - San Remo conference splits up Feisal's newly-created Arab kingdom by placingSyria-Lebanon under a French mandate, and Palestine under British control.

1920 July - French forces occupy Damascus, forcing Feisal to flee abroad.

1920 August - France proclaims a new state of Greater Lebanon.

1922 - Syria is divided into three autonomous regions by the French, with separate areas for theAlawis on the coast and the Druze in the south.

Uprising1925-6 - Nationalist agitation against French rule develops into a national uprising. French forcesbombard Damascus.

1928 - Elections held for a constituent assembly, which drafts a constitution for Syria. FrenchHigh Commissioner rejects the proposals, sparking nationalist protests.

1936 - France agrees to Syrian independence in principle but signs an agreement maintainingFrench military and economic dominance.

1940 - World War II: Syria comes under the control of the Axis powers after France falls toGerman forces.

1941 - British and Free French troops occupy Syria. General De Gaulle promises to end theFrench mandate.

1945 - Protests over the slow pace of French withdrawal.

1946 - Last French troops leave Syria.

Baath Party founded1947 - Michel Aflaq and Salah-al-Din al-Bitar found the Arab Socialist Baath Party.


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1949 - Army officer Adib al-Shishakhli seizes power in the third military coup in the space of ayear.

1952 - Al-Shishakli dissolves all political parties.

1954 - Army officers lead a coup against Al-Shishakli, but return a civilian government topower.

1955 - Veteran nationalist Shukri al-Quwatli is elected president. Syria seeks closer ties withEgypt.

United Arab Republic1958 February - Syria and Egypt join the United Arab Republic (UAR). Egyptian presidentGamal Abdul Nasser heads the new state. He orders the dissolution of Syrian political parties, tothe dismay of the Baath party, which had campaigned for union.

1961 September - Discontent with Egyptian domination of the UAR prompts a group of Syrianarmy officers to seize power in Damascus and dissolve the union.

1963 March - Army officers seize power. A Baathist cabinet is appointed and Amin al-Hafezbecomes president.

Rise of Assad1966 February - Salah Jadid leads an internal coup against the civilian Baath leadership,overthrowing Amin al-Hafez and arresting Salah al-Din al-Bitar and Michel Aflaq. Hafez al-Assad becomes defence minister.

1967 June - Israeli forces seize the Golan Heights from Syria and destroy much of Syria's airforce in the Six day War with Egypt, Jordan and Syria.

1970November - Hafez al-Assad overthrows president Nur al-Din al-Atasi and imprisons SalahJadid.

1971 March - Assad is elected president for a seven-year term in a plebiscite.

1973 - Rioting breaks out after Assad drops the constitutional requirement that the presidentmust be a Muslim. He is accused of heading an atheist regime. The riots are suppressed by thearmy.

War with Israel

1973 6 October - Syria and Egypt go to war with Israel but fail to retake the Golan Heights

seized during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

1974 May - Syria and Israel sign a disengagement agreement.

1975 February - Assad says he's prepared to make peace with Israel in return for an Israeliwithdrawal from "all occupied Arab land".


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1976 June - Syrian army intervenes in the Lebanese civil war to ensure that the status quo ismaintained, and the Maronites remain in power.

1978 - In response to the Camp David peace agreement between Egypt and Israel, Assad sets outto gain strategic parity with Israel.

Riots1980 - After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Muslim groups instigate uprisings and riots in

Aleppo, Homs and Hama. Assad begins to stress Syria's adherence to Islam.

1980 - Muslim Brotherhood member tries to assassinate Assad.

1980 September - Start of Iran-Iraq war. Syria backs Iran, in keeping with the traditional rivalrybetween Baathist leaderships in Iraq and Syria.

1981 December - Israel annexes the Golan Heights.

Uprising in Hama1982 February - Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the city of Hama. The revolt is suppressed by

the military, whom rights organisations accuse of killing tens of thousands of civilians.

1982 June - Israel invades Lebanon and attacks the Syrian army, forcing it to withdraw fromseveral areas. Israel attacks the PLO base in Beirut.

1983 May - Lebanon and Israel announce the end of hostilities. Syrian forces remain in Lebanon.

1983 - Assad suffers a heart attack, according to reports denied by authorities. Assad's brotherRifaat apparently prepares to take power.

1984 Rifaat is promoted to the post of vice-president.

Return to Lebanon1987 February - Assad sends troops into Lebanon for a second time to enforce a ceasefire inBeirut.

1990 - Iraq invades Kuwait; Syria joins the US-led coalition against Iraq. This leads to improvedrelations with Egypt and the US.

1991 October - Syria participates in the Middle East peace conference in Madrid and holds talkswith Israel.

1994- Assad's son Basil, who was likely to succeed his father, is killed in a car accident.

Rifaat sacked1998 - Assad's brother Rifaat is "relieved of his post" as vice-president.

1999 December - Talks with Israel over the Golan Heights begin in the US.

2000 January - Syrian-Israeli talks are indefinitely postponed.


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Assad succession2000 June - Assad dies and is succeeded by his son, Bashar.

2000November - Bashar orders the release of 600 political prisoners.

2001 April - Outlawed Muslim Brotherhood says it will resume political activity, 20 years afterits leaders were forced to flee.

2001 5 May - Pope John Paul II pays historic visit.

Beirut pull-out2001 June - Syrian troops evacuate Beirut, redeploy in other parts of Lebanon, followingpressure from Lebanese critics of Syria's presence.

2001 September - Detention of MPs and other pro-reform activists, crushing hopes of a breakwith the authoritarian past of Hafez al-Assad.

2001November - British PM Tony Blair visits to try shore up support for the campaign againstterror. He and President Assad fail to agree on a definition of terrorism.

2001November - More than 100 dissidents amnestied. Campaigners say hundreds of politicalprisoners remain in jail.

Tensions with US2002 May - Senior US official includes Syria in a list of states that make-up an "axis of evil",first listed by President Bush in January. Undersecretary for State John Bolton says Damascus isacquiring weapons of mass destruction.

2003 April - US threatens sanctions if Damascus fails to take what Washington calls the "rightdecisions". Syria denies US allegations that it is developing chemical weapons and helping

fugitive Iraqis.

2003 September - President Assad appoints Mohammed Naji al-Otari as PM.

2003 October - Israeli air strike against Palestinian militant camp near Damascus. Syria saysaction is "military aggression".

2004 January - President Assad visits Turkey, the first Syrian leader to do so. The trip marks theend of decades of frosty relations.

2004 March - At least 25 killed in clashes between members of the Kurdish minority, police and

Arabs in the north-east.

2004 May - US imposes economic sanctions on Syria over what it calls its support for terrorismand failure to stop militants entering Iraq.

2004 September - UN Security Council resolution calls for all foreign forces to leave Lebanon.

2004 December - Authorities say they have amnestied 112 political prisoners.


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Pressure over Lebanon2005 February-March - Tensions with the US escalate after the killing of former Lebanese PMHariri in Beirut. Washington cites Syrian influence in Lebanon. Damascus is urged to withdrawits forces from Lebanon.

2005 April - Syria says it has withdrawn all of its military forces from Lebanon.

2005 October - Interior minister and Syria's former head of intelligence in Lebanon, Ghazi

Kanaan, commits suicide, officials say.

UN inquiry into assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri implicates senior Syrianofficials.

2005 December - Exiled former vice-president, Abdul Halim Khaddam, alleges that Syrianleaders threatened former Lebanese PM Hariri before his assassination.

2006 February - Danish and Norwegian embassies in Damascus are set on fire during ademonstration against cartoons in a Danish newspaper portraying the Muslim ProphetMuhammad.

2006 July - Thousands of people flee into Syria to escape the Israeli-Lebanese War.

2006 September - Attack on the US embassy in Damascus. Four gunmen open fire and throwgrenades but fail to detonate a car bomb. Three of them are killed, one is captured.

Diplomatic overtures2006November - Iraq and Syria restore diplomatic relations after nearly a quarter century.

2006 December - The Iraq Study Group report making recommendations to the US governmentsays neighbours should form a support group to reinforce security and national reconciliation in

Iraq. Syria welcomes the chance to participate.

2007 March - European Union reopens dialogue with Syria.

2007 April - US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi meets President Assad inDamascus. She is the highest-placed US politician to visit Syria in recent years.

2007 May - US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice meets Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, thefirst contact at this level between the two countries in two years.

2007 May - Leading dissident Kamal Labwani and prominent political writer Michel Kilo are

sentenced to a long jail terms, only weeks after human rights lawyer Anwar al-Bunni is jailed.

Al-Assad endorsed as president for a second seven-year term.

Israeli forces destroyed what they said was a nuclear facility under construction. Syria says itwas an unused military facility

2007 September - Israel carries out an aerial strike against a site in northern Syria that it said wasa nuclear facility under construction.


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2007 October - Syria imposes tough visa restrictions on Iraqis, saying it can't cope with theinflux of refugees.

2008 January - Diplomatic row between Damascus and Paris over Lebanon's quest for aconsensus president.

2008 March - Syria hosts Arab League summit. Many pro-Western states send lower-leveldelegations in protest at Syria's stance on Lebanon.

2008 April - The US accuses North Korea of having helped Syria to build a secret nuclearreactor at the site bombed by Israel in 2007.

2008 May - President Assad announces a 25% pay rise for public sector workers to offset effectsof rising food and heating oil prices.

International acceptance2008 July - President Assad meets French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris. The visit signalsthe end of the diplomatic isolation by the West that followed the assassination of formerLebanese PM Rafik Hariri in 2005.

While in Paris, President Assad also meets the recently-elected Lebanese president, MichelSuleiman. The two men agree to work towards the establishing of full diplomatic relationsbetween their countries.

2008 September - Damascus hosts four-way summit between Syria, France, Turkey and Qatar, ina bid to boost efforts towards Middle East peace.

Explosion kills 17 on the outskirts of Damascus, the most deadly attack in Syria in several years.Government blames Islamist militants.

Diplomatic thaw continues2008 October - Syria establishes diplomatic relations with Lebanon for first time since bothcountries established independence in 1940s.

2009 March - Jeffrey Feltman, acting assistant US secretary of state for the Near East, visitsDamascus with White House national security aide Daniel Shapiro in first high-level USdiplomatic mission for nearly four years. Met Foreign Minister Walid Muallem.

Trading launches on Syria's stock exchange in sign of gradual liberalisation of state-controlledeconomy.

2009 April - A key suspect in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Haririwas arrested in Dubai. Mohammed Zuhair al-Siddiq, a former Syrian intelligence officer, was awitness to Hariri's killing.

2009 May - Syrian writer and pro-democracy campaigner Michel Kilo is released from prisonafter serving three-year sentence.


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2009 June - The UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, says traces of undeclared man-made uraniumhave been found at second site in Syria - a reactor in Damascus. The IAEA was investigating USclaims that the site destroyed in the 2007 Israeli raid was a nuclear reactor.

2009 July - US special envoy George Mitchell visits for talks with President Assad on MiddleEast peace.

Tensions with Iraq

2009 August - Iraq and Syria recall their envoys in a deepening rift over charges of responsibilityfor a string of deadly bomb attacks in Baghdad.

2010 February - US posts first ambassador to Syria after a five-year break.

2010 May - US renews sanctions against Syria, saying that Damascus supports terrorist groups,seeks weapons of mass destruction and has provided Lebanon's Hezbollah with Scud missiles inviolation of UN resolutions.

2010 June - Eminent defence lawyer Mohannad al-Hassani, head of the Syrian Organisation forHuman Rights, is jailed for three years for "spreading false information and weakening national

morale" nearly a year after his arrest.

2010 July - Syria and Iran deny US media reports that Iran has given Syria an advanced radarsystem that could hamper Israel's ability to overfly Syria and hit Iran's nuclear facilities.

Full face veils banned from universities.

2010 September - Syria and Iraq restore diplomatic ties a year after breaking them off.

2010 December - US appoints envoy to Syria after six-year break.

Domestic unrest2011 March - "Day of Dignity" protest held in Damascus demanding release of politicalprisoners. Some 35 people are arrested. At a "Day of Rage" rally in the southern city of Deraa,security forces shoot a number of people dead, triggering days of violent unrest and more civiliandeaths.

The government announces some conciliatory measures and releases dozens of politicalprisoners in an attempt to damp down the unrest. President Assad dismisses government, accusesprotesters of being Israeli agents.

2011 April - State of emergency - in force since 1963 - is lifted.

2011 May - Army tanks enter Deraa, Banyas, Homs and suburbs of Damascus in an effort tocrush anti-regime protests.

US tightens sanctions in response to bloody crackdown on protests. European Union follows suitdays later.

President Assad announces amnesty for political prisoners.


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2011 June - The government says that 120 members of the security forces have been killed by"armed gangs" in the northwestern town of Jisr al-Shughour. Troops besiege the town and morethan 10,000 people flee to Turkey.

President Assad pledges to start a "national dialogue" on reform.

2011 June - The IAEA nuclear watchdog decides to report Syria to the UN Security Council overits alleged covert nuclear programme reactor programme. The structure housing the alleged

reactor was destroyed in an Israeli air raid in 2007.

2011 July - President Assad sacks the governor of the northern province of Hama after massdemonstration there, eventually sending in troops to restore order at the cost of scores of lives.

Dozens of opposition activists meet in Istanbul to form a unified opposition.

2011 August - US President Barack Obama and allies call on President Assad to step down.

2011 October - Newly formed Syrian National Council says it has forged a common front ofinternal and exiled opposition activists.

Russia and China veto UN resolution condemning Syria.

2011November - Arab League votes to suspend Syria, accusing it of failing to implement anArab peace plan. Weeks later the League votes to impose sanctions.

Army defectors target a military base near Damascus in the Free Syrian Army's most high-profile attack since protests began.

Government supporters attack foreign embassies.

2011 December - Death toll in uprising exceeds 5,000, says UN.

Syria agrees to an Arab League initiative allowing Arab observers into the country.

Twin suicide bombs outside security buildings in Damascus kill 44. Opposition suspectsgovernment of attacks.

Thousand of protesters gather in Homs to greet Arab League monitors.

State TV says more than 700 detainees freed.

2012 January - Suicide bomber kills 26 in Damascus. Government vows ''iron fist'' response.

Arab League suspends its monitoring mission because of worsening violence.

2012 February - Russia and China block a UN Security Council draft resolution on Syria, and thegovernment step up the bombardment of Homs and other cities.


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GUIDE TO REVOLUTION

The Syrian authorities have responded to anti-government protests with overwhelming militaryforce since they erupted in March 2011. The protests pose the greatest challenge to four decadesof Assad family rule in the country. Here is an overview of the uprising, in which the UN saysmore than 5,000 civilians have been killed by security forces and 14,000 others detained. Thegovernment says 2,000 members of the security forces have died.

How did the protests start?The unrest began in the southern city of Deraa in March when locals gathered to demand therelease of about 15 school children who were arrested and reportedly tortured after writing on awall the well-known slogan of the popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt: "The people want thedownfall of the regime." The protesters also called for democracy and greater freedom, thoughnot President Assad's resignation. The peaceful show of dissent was, however, too much for thegovernment and when people marched though the city after Friday prayers on 18 March, securityforces opened fire, killing four people. The following day, they shot at mourners at the victims'funerals, killing another person.

Within days, the unrest in Deraa had spiralled out of the control of the local authorities. In late

March, the army's fourth armoured division - commanded by the president's brother, Maher -was sent in to crush the emboldened protesters. Dozens of people were killed, as tanks shelledresidential areas and troops stormed homes, rounding up those believed to have attendeddemonstrations. But the crackdown failed to stop the unrest in Deraa, instead triggering anti-government protests in other towns and cities across the country, including Baniyas, Homs,Hama and the suburbs of Damascus. The army subsequently besieged them, blaming "armedgangs and terrorists" for the unrest. By mid-May, the death toll had reached 1,000.

What do the protesters want and what have they got?Protesters began somewhat cautiously by calling for democracy and greater freedom in what isone of the most repressive countries in the Arab world. But once security forces opened fire on

peaceful demonstrations, people demanded that Mr Assad resign. The president has resolutelyrefused to step down, but in the few public statements he has made since March he has offeredsome concessions and promised reform. Activists say that - as long as people continue to bekilled - his promises count for very little.

Is there an organised opposition?The Syrian authorities have long restricted the activities of disparate opposition parties andactivists, and they played a minor role at the start of the uprising. However, as the protests spreadacross the country and the government crackdown intensified, opposition groups publiclydeclared their support for the protesters' demands and in November several announced theformation of a united front, Syrian National Council (SNC). Led by the Paris-based dissident

Burhan Ghalioun and including the Muslim Brotherhood, it aims to provide "the necessarysupport for the revolution to progress and realise the aspirations of our people for the overthrowof the regime, its symbols and its head".

The SNC, which is dominated by Syria's majority Sunni Muslim community, has struggled towin over Christians and members of President Assad's Alawite sect, who each make up about10% of the population and have so far stayed loyal to the government. The council's primacy hasalso been challenged by the National Co-ordination Committee (NCC), an opposition bloc that


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still functions within Syria and is led by Hussein Abdul Azim and other longstanding dissidents,some of whom are wary of the Islamists within the SNC. The opposition has also found itdifficult to work with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a group of army defectors which is seekingto topple Mr Assad by force. Based in Turkey, its fighters have launched increasingly deadly andaudacious attacks on security forces in the north-western province of Idlib, around the centralcities of Homs and Hama, and even on the outskirts of Damascus.

In January, residents of Zabadani, a mountain town 40km (25 miles) north-west of the capital,

said it had been "liberated" by FSA fighters. Days later, defectors seized control of Douma, asuburb 10km (six miles) from Damascus, for a few hours. The FSA's leader, Riyad al-Asaad,claims to have 15,000 men under his command, though analysts believe there may be no morethan 7,000. They are also still poorly armed, and many have only basic military training.

Is this a sectarian conflict?Syria is a country of 21 million people with a large Sunni majority (74%) and significantminorities (10% each) of Christians and Alawites - the Shia sect to which Mr Assad belongs. Foryears, Mr Assad has promoted a secular identity for the Syrian state, hoping to unify diversecommunities in a region where sectarian conflict is rife - as seen in neighbouring Lebanon andIraq. However, he also concentrated power in the hands of his family and members of the

Alawite community, who wield a disproportionate power in the Syrian government, military and business elite. Claims of corruption and nepotism have been rife among the excluded Sunnimajority. And protests have generally been biggest in Sunni-dominated rural areas, towns andcities, as opposed to mixed areas. Opposition figures have stressed that they seek a "multi-national, multi-ethnic and religiously tolerant society". But there are fears of chaos andinstability - even talk of civil war - if Mr Assad should fall. Activists say these fears areoverblown.

What is the international community doing?Syria is a major player in the Middle East. Any chaos here could cause knock-on effects incountries such as Lebanon and Israel, where it can mobilise powerful proxy groups, such as the

militant Hezbollah and Hamas movements. It also has close ties with Shia power Iran - an arch-foe of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia - which could potentially draw those powers into adangerous Middle Eastern conflict. The Arab League initially remained silent on the issue ofSyria - although it backed the Nato-led bombing campaign against Libya's Col MuammarGaddafi in a bid to protect civilians there. The 22-member group called for an end to theviolence, but cited hesitation over any action because of "strategic and political considerations".

But in November, member states led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia surprised observers by voting tosuspend Syria in an effort to force President Assad to end the crackdown. The League laterimposed economic sanctions when the Syrian government hesitated over allowing thedeployment of an observer mission to verify its implementation of a peace initiative, which

demanded the withdrawal of troops and tanks from the streets. Damascus eventually allowed inthe observers in December, but they failed to halt the crackdown on dissent. In late January, theArab League laid out an ambitious plan of political reform, which called on President Assad todelegate power to a vice-president, to engage in proper dialogue with the opposition within twoweeks, and form a government of national unity in two months. The League said this shouldeventually lead to multi-party elections overseen by international observers. A week later,following a dramatic increase in violence, the League suspended its observer mission.


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The League sought the support of the UN Security Council for its Syrian reform plan, rejected byDamascus on the grounds that it would infringe on national sovereignty. But a UN resolutionsupporting the plan was vetoed by Russia, which has significant economic and military ties withSyria, and by China. It was their second veto on Security Council action. Moscow has expressedconcern that this would pave the way for military intervention.

What is the economic fallout of the unrest in Syria?In June, Mr Assad warned his people that "the most dangerous thing" facing Syria was "the

weakness or collapse" of the Syrian economy. Even before the unrest, Syrians had endureddecades of high unemployment, widespread poverty and rising food prices. Now, business,farming and trade have been hard hit by economic sanctions imposed by the Arab League, theEuropean Union, the United States and neighbouring Turkey. Tourism has all but collapsed,while oil sales - accounting for a major share of government revenue - have plummeted.Unemployment is estimated to have risen to more than 20%. Economic analysts warn that time isagainst Mr Assad. They say protests will gain added momentum when the newly-unemployedjoin their ranks and government subsidies on vital commodities like diesel run out.

Fall of the regime Mr Assad has made clear that he has nointention to step down

End to the 48-year-oldemergency law

He revoked the emergency law on 21 April, butSyrian forces continued to open fire ondemonstrations and detain people without arrestwarrants

Immediate end toextrajudicialkillings andtorture

The president has rejected as "false" allegationsmade by the UN that Syrian security forces havecommitted crimes against humanity, includingkillings, torture, rape, imprisonment, and otherforms of severe deprivation of liberty and

disappearances

Release ofpolitical prisonersand detainedprotesters

Amnesties were offered to political prisoners inMay, June and January. Officials say thousandswere released, but as many as 37,000 are still inprison, according to human rights activists

Transition to ademocratic, freeand pluralisticsociety

In June, Mr Assad announced the start of a"national dialogue", which would review newelection law, allowing political parties other thanthe Baath Party, and constitutional reform. The

opposition and activists involved in the uprisingrejected any dialogue


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Analysis: Syria's complex and bloody crisis

By Jim MuirBBC News, Beirut

There are few certainties or even probabilities in the complex and bloody crisis in which

Syria is now mired.

It is uncharted terrain for all - the regime itself, its population, its fellow Arab states, non-Arabneighbours Turkey and Israel, and the concerned outside world. Huge issues are at stake in thedeepening struggle. The collapse of the regime and a descent into chaos, in a country wheresectarian and ethnic fault lines converge, would have huge repercussions in the wider region.

It would redraw its geopolitical map. Iran would stand to lose a vital channel for support to itsally in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Russia would likely lose its most important Arab ally. And the possible emergence of a Sunni-led Syria, perhaps dominated by Islamists as seems to behappening in Egypt and elsewhere, would not necessarily be good news for the West and Israeleither.

'Crushing the rebels'

One thing that seems relatively safe to predict is that the regime's current drive to crush armedrebels will continue until it has secured control of areas which had slipped out of its grasp inrecent months. It formally committed itself to that goal - at least for Homs and its province - inan interior ministry statement on Monday night. The subsequent visit to Damascus by theRussian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has clearly done nothing to curb the onslaught.

In fact, the campaign goes far beyond Homs and its environs. It was launched a few days afterthe Arab League's foreign ministers met in Cairo on 22 January and adopted a new peace planfor Syria, which called on President Bashar al-Assad to hand power to his vice-president andmake way for the rapid formation of a national unity government including the opposition.

Change of Arab plan

That implicitly scrapped an earlier Arab peace plan, adopted on 2 November, which Syriaaccepted and which it and Russia still support. The November scheme called for an end toviolence from whatever source, the withdrawal of armed forces, the deployment of Arabobservers, the release of detainees, and rapid movement towards national dialogue.

The sudden adoption of a radically different plan, and the move to take the issue to the UNSecurity Council, apparently convinced Mr Assad that Syria's powerful Arab adversaries -notably the Saudi-led Gulf states and especially Qatar - backed by Western powers, would stop

at nothing to overturn his regime.Damascus had already accused those Arab powers of armingand financing rebel groups, with guns and money pouring into the country across porous bordersfrom Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.


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Key centres

So the crackdown launched by Syrian security forces after the unveiling of the new Arab Leagueplan is aimed at bringing key population centres back under government control, eliminating thearmed opposition, and securing borders to stop the flow of weapons and money.It has seentroops drive armed rebels out of the suburbs of Damascus itself, and put severe pressure on themin other places where they have taken root - Homs, Hama, Idlib, Deraa and elsewhere.

Homs and Hama are strategically important because they control the highway betweenDamascus and Aleppo, the two big cities which have yet to be fully caught up in the revolt.Homs is also close to the Lebanese border. Idlib and its province in the north-west are importantbecause they are adjacent to Turkey, where the rebel Free Syrian Army is based. In recent dayssecurity forces have been on the move in towns, villages and country areas near all four borders,attacking any centres of armed resistance they can find. Lebanese analysts well versed in Syrianaffairs believe that, far from disapproving of the crackdown on armed rebels, the Russians mayeven have encouraged it. But neither the Russians nor the regime itself can seriously think thatcrushing or curbing armed groups represents a solution to the entire crisis.

Compromise and agreement

Moscow is said to believe that "armed extremist groups" need to be eliminated because theywould sabotage any compromise agreement reached through dialogue between the regime and itsopponents. By that reading, the current escalation would be more about affecting the balance of afuture post-crisis Syria than pursuing the illusion that the entire uprising could be defeated byforce, and that things would go back to how they were, as though nothing had happened. As thecontinued defiance at Homs, Hama, Deraa and elsewhere have shown, it is not that easy.Although the escalation looks set to continue, it is not a comfortable time for Russia.

After the Russian and Chinese veto of an otherwise unanimous Security Council resolution thatwould have adopted the second Arab League peace plan, with its call for Mr Assad to step aside,

the powers that supported the torpedoed resolution are urgently seeking another way forward.

'Militarising' the conflict

Although there are no obvious answers, that process is bound to intensify and speed up thelonger the bloodbath continues and the uglier it gets. Although external military intervention, aswas seen in Libya, is being constantly ruled out, there is mounting pressure for some kind ofaction to halt the carnage, and ideas such as the creation of protected corridors for humanitarianaid, or safe-havens of some sort, are being increasingly discussed.

The creation of some kind of formal or informal coalition of powers to support the Syrianopposition has been proposed in different forms by a variety of quarters, including the US, UK,and Turkey. That is far from being a straightforward proposition. Both politically and militarily,the opposition is divided.

The main umbrella group in exile, the Syrian National Council (SNC), has failed to unify withother opposition factions and agree on a shared platform. While it has generally supported theFree Syrian Army, it came under a blistering attack from the FSA commander, Col Riyad al-Asaad, just as the violence at Homs was reaching a crescendo.


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The FSA itself faced a challenge from a new military body, the Supreme Military Council, set upthis week under a more senior defecting officer, Gen Mohammed al-Sheikh, who has alsoinstalled himself in southern Turkey.

Russian role

But these are wrinkles that could be smoothed out quickly under the pressure of time, events anda strong will from outside powers. And even if not, if the drive for an international consensus

over Syria is abandoned, there is a strong danger from Russia's viewpoint that the existing levelof clandestine outside support to opposition rebels will be greatly stepped up, plunging thecountry into chaos and fragmentation, and clinching Moscow's loss of its most important Arabally.

The Russian calculation may be that it is better to use its undoubted influence with Damascus -with which it has a strategic relationship going back decades into Cold War and Soviet times - toplay a leading role in brokering a Syrian settlement within an international consensus. That is presumably why President Dmitry Medvedev, in conversations with Turkish Prime MinisterRecep Tayyip Erdogan this week, continued to propose the Security Council as the proper forumfor elaborating an agreed strategy, despite the Russian-Chinese veto. Even the Syrian National

Council, despite fury at the veto, has not ruled out a Russian role.

"Russia remains a potential mediator," the SNC said in its latest statement. "[But it must] firstuse its influence on the regime in order to stop the killings immediately." "A negotiatedtransition can only come afterwards, and will need to encompass the stepping aside of the headof the regime, a demand for which thousands of Syrians have died."

These two key demands are likely to be the focus of intense scrutiny as all sides consider theiroptions under the pressure of events on the ground. They imply that the regime has been defeatedand must step aside - something that it is not ready to concede, apparently supported by Moscow.

Remaining support for Assad

The situation is far more complex than during the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

In contrast to their ousted leaders, it does appear that the Assad regime still enjoys the support ofsignificant sectors of the country's patchwork society, increasingly polarised as the crisisdeepens. By and large, his own Alawite minority apparently continues to stand with him, someno doubt fearful of the consequences of change. The same seems generally to be true of otherminorities, especially the Christians, with more questionable allegiance from the Kurds andDruze.

Secular-minded and business circles within the middle classes of the majority Sunni community,especially in the two biggest cities, have also shown little enthusiasm for the revolt, which somefear might bring Islamists to the fore, especially now that armed action is increasingly in thepicture. The regime has also apparently been able to continue using the army and security forcesin a repressive role without them going to pieces. There have been individual or group defectionson the ground, but not by whole units.


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What nobody knows - probably not even the regime itself - is how long it can go on using forcesin which the rank and file are necessarily largely Sunni, to quell a largely Sunni-based revolt.That may be one of the key constraints forcing the regime towards an eventual compromise. Ifthere is to be a chance of a peaceful transition, a Russian role might be vital in persuading theregime to give ground - something Moscow would likely only do if it were convinced that a balanced outcome, rather than a Western-dictated formula removing Syria from its sphere ofinfluence, would result.

Other formulae being explored, such as the idea of an enhanced, joint UN-Arab League observermission and the appointment of a special envoy, would imply an international consensus andagreement to stabilise the situation. A UN observer mission could not be mounted without aresolution from the Security Council, which Russia and China would have to approve. It couldalso not be deployed without Syrian approval, because observers are not mandated or equippedto fight their way in or impose anything, just to monitor, report, and hope that their presence hasa calming and restraining effect.

As the powers consider all these complexities, the killing on the ground goes on, with every dropof blood shed - on either side - making a solution and eventual reconciliation more difficult.


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Syria resolution: The diplomatic train-wreck

By Jonathan MarcusBBC Diplomatic Correspondent

International efforts to bring pressure to bear on President Bashar al-Assad's regime in

Syria have collapsed in acrimony.

The decision by Russia and China to veto an Arab League-inspired resolution at the UnitedNations Security Council has created serious strains especially between Moscow and the West.

Worse, it has probably sent the wrong signal to President Assad, who many analysts believe isdetermined to step up the violence.

The annual Munich Security Conference in Germany has provided a ring-side seat as thisdiplomatic drama played out. The touring company of world leaders, diplomats and experts whodo the rounds of these policy gatherings have made Munich the premier event of its kind.

It always has a good cast-list and this year was no exception. Both US Secretary of State HillaryClinton and her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov were in town, fresh from their starring rolesin the negotiations at the UN in New York.

'Not a serious policy'

Almost from the outset of this crisis, all eyes have been on Moscow.

Russia is Syria's only prominent ally. Moscow has long had close military, economic anddiplomatic ties with the Syrians. Russia is expanding its use of the Syrian naval base at Tartusand has maintained arms supplies to Damascus throughout this crisis.

So all eyes were on Sergei Lavrov when he began his brief intervention.

Was Russia now ready to join in concerted international action to condemn the Syrian regime?The answer quickly became clear - No, it was not.

For all the hopes in the West of a last-minute compromise, with Mr Lavrov and Mrs Clintonhurrying off for bilateral talks in the margins of the conference, there was probably no deal to bedone.

At one level it is quite simple. Russia is, as I have said, Syria's most prominent ally and that isthat.

This, together with Russia's traditional antipathy towards what it sees as the UN SecurityCouncil's interference in a sovereign nation's affairs - here China takes much the same view -was enough to prompt the Russian veto.

But it is a little more complicated than that.


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I listened closely to Mr Lavrov's comments. "Russia," he said, "supported the call of the Syrian people for change." It had backed the Arab League observer mission and had persuaded theSyrian authorities to accept it.

But, he went on, Russia was not going to accept any resolutions that might open the way toforeign intervention or that would pre-determine the political outcome in Syria.

Mr Lavrov was clearly sceptical about what any UN resolution might achieve.

"What was the West's game plan?" he asked. If the violence continued, he argued, would yousimply go back to the UN for another resolution? This was simply "not a serious policy".

If the draft resolution did not apply equivalent restrictions on all parties - for the Russians thatmeans the "armed groups" who they believe are fomenting the violence as much as the Syriangovernment - it was going to be unacceptable to Moscow.

Similarly, if it referred in any way to the Arab League peace plan which involves PresidentAssad stepping aside according to a tight schedule, then this too was unacceptable to theRussians, as was anything that they believe might pre-determine the outcome in Syria.

Impact on relations

Contrast all this with the Western view and the context of Saturday's talks - reports of hundredskilled by Syrian government artillery in Homs. The fact that the death toll was significantlyscaled down by the evening does little to alter the horror of the events there.

Western leaders believed the Syrian government's escalation of the violence required a promptand unanimous condemnation from the international community.

But the broader context matters too.

In general terms, the West is far more enthusiastic than the Russians about the upheavals in theMiddle East. Moscow has welcomed the advent of the Arab Spring in cautious terms, concernedby instability and the potential overthrow of established diplomatic patterns.

In the West there has been an altogether more jubilant tone. Syria is seen as the next outdatedregime to fall and its departure would be a blow to Iran. After hoping that President Assad mightdeliver reform, he has turned his guns on his own people and the consensus in the West, alongwith the Arab League, is that he must go.

So where does diplomacy go from here? The sense of anger in Western diplomatic circles ispalpable, and that is bound to have an impact on broader relations with Moscow.

"The Russians and Chinese have put themselves on the wrong side of history, and they willregret it," said veteran US Senator John McCain who is leading a Congressional delegation to theMunich conference.

"Didn't Mr Lavrov though have a point?" I asked him. "A UN resolution is not going to changePresident Assad's approach?"


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"No" he said, such resolutions mattered.

"Secretary Clinton had gone the extra mile with Mr Lavrov here in Munich. She was willing tomake changes to the resolution. It wasn't set in concrete," he said.

"But Mr Lavrov wanted to gut the resolution, it's as simple as that."

Western diplomats insist that the quest for a UN resolution condemning Syria will continue. Mr

Lavrov is heading to Damascus for some bilateral diplomacy of his own.

What message will he carry with him to the Syrian capital? Russia of course does not want tolose an ally, but it is undoubtedly in an uncomfortable position. It wants any new Syria that mayemerge to maintain its alliance with Moscow.

But there was perhaps just a hint of Moscow's thinking in Mr Lavrov's comments here inMunich.

"Russia fully supports the rights of the Syrian people for a better life. We are not friends or alliesof President Assad," he said.

He said it again a few moments later: "We don't have any special concern for President Assad."

That is one straw in the wind, though. With the Assad regime struggling for its survival, Moscowmay find that its efforts to manage regime change in Syria is just as fruitless as the diplomaticpressures coming from the West and the Arab League.


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