Sustainability – Surviving Oil Depletion & Climate Change with Community Solutions’ Plan C

2009 Illinois Renewable Energy Association Oregon, IllinoisAugust 8, 2009

Presented byPat Murphy – Executive DirectorCommunity Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387

Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions

Founded in 1940 to support Small Local Communities

Represents a trend to re-localization/localization

Small communities under assault since World War II Made possible by cheap energy

In 2004 we began focusing on Climate Change and Peak Oil The factors that will lead to small community resurgence

Humans develop optimally in a place over generations Our “Home Town”

New Watchword Needed!1987 – Sustainability, 2009 – Survivability Three Interrelated Threats to Humanity

Increasing CO2 (From burning fossil fuels) Threatens life on earth

Shrinking amounts of Fossil Fuels – “Peak Oil (Energy)” Implies a declining material standard of living

Record Inequity – result of cheap fuels and cheap credit More violence, suffering and alienation today Related to current economic crisis

World Threatened with Climate Crisis

CO2 – 387 ppm; Increasing 2.1 ppm annually James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!

World Facing Energy Decline

Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) says occurred in 2008

IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 – Acknowledged Peak Oil

World Inequity Highest in History

Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974 U.S. Military predicting perpetual resource wars Contraction and Convergence – Europe and NGOs

Modern Technology – Problem or Solution?

10,000 years of Agrarian living ~250 years of technology living 65 years hyper-technology living

Modern world is an “energy” world

Technology is limited Fuel cell car a 30 years effort Electric cars 90 years old Fusion 40 years late Ethanol has not succeeded

Energy Sources Are Limited

Fossil Fuels and UraniumOil and Gas Not enough resourcesCoal–Tar Sands–Oil Shale Not enough atmosphereNuclear fission Not enough resourcesNuclear fusion Too difficult

RenewablesBiomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough air/water/soilHydroelectric Not enough sites Hydrogen folly Needs energy to be producedPhotovoltaic & Wind Power Proven – But will they scale?

Why are there so few options? Are we at a point of diminishing returns? Has anything been added since crisis of 1970s?

Energy Devices Are Limited

Fuel Cell cars a 30 year debacle $17 billion spent – few cars

EV a less expensive debacle Few $ billion spent – 4,000 made

Green Building not very green – Energy Star and LEED 15 – 25% savings at best: need 80 – 90%

PHEV next techno fix – but just a coal car (no better than hybrid) And how much lithium exists in the world?

Power plants have changed little – a few IGCC generators But only a handful built in last 20 years Carbon Capture and Storage doubtful

Three Technology (Societal) Options

Plan A – Black (fossil fuel technology) More oil, gas, tar sands Proponents are oil, gas, coal, agribusiness, car companies Maintain current life style – 90% (or more) of population

Plan B – Green (solar, wind, switch grass) technology Focused primarily on intermittent electricity generation Proponents are Al Gore, Lester Brown, Environmental NGOs Maintain current life style – 9% (or less) of population

Plan C – High Satisfaction Low Energy Life Style Focused on curtailing fossil fuel usage Reduce current life style – .9% of population

Plan C – Curtail Consumption First

Community Survival Strategies We must cut energy use – fast !

Cuts must be deep IPCC: 80–90% by 2050; 4–5% yearly

Take responsibility Can’t wait for techno-fixes

Our focus: Cut energy under personal control House, Food, Cars – 2/3 US energy

Plan C – High Satisfaction, Less Energy A “Community” Context

A “sufficiency” lifestyle Cooperating vs. Competing Sharing vs. Hoarding Saving vs. Consuming

Context where curtailment is not suffering Happiness is relating, not accumulating “Live simply that others may simply live”

Community is a cooperation principle Capitalism/Competition destroying life

And high tech 20th century socialism Need high satisfaction cooperative living

Justifying Plan C

Our work is Technology/Science driven Technology of depletion – proven by M King Hubbert Climate Science – Universally accepted now (IPCC) Psychology/Sociology – “Bowling Alone” Ecological Economics

Our Research in Plan C Intermediate Technology Buildings Transportation Food

Expose false solutions

“If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It!” – per Capita Thinking Need to understand energy accounting

EROEI, LCA, Embodied energy vs. operating energy

Understanding requires per capita comparisons Country comparisons are always misleading Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous

There are three key “macro” considerations CO2 Generation (tonnes per capita per year) Energy Consumption (BOE per capita per year) Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year)

CO2 – 90% Reduction Required for Survival

Per Capita Comparison 33 most populous nations 80% of world population

Survival (sustainable) level 1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita 4 tonne CO2 world average today 19 tonne CO2 U.S. average today

U.S. greatest CO2 contributor 4.5% of world made 27% of CO2

Need a 90% cut

World Organization by Energy

Rich world is most of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development)

OECD–L = OECD minus US, Turkey, Mexico (moved to ROW)

U.S. is a separate category

U.S. Energy Consumption Breakdown

Population: U.S. – 300MOECD–L – 700MROW – 5,700M

U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home) Each sector uses

more than total energy of ROW

Setting 80 – 90% Reduction Targets

Housing (15.4 BOE/c/year) Deep Building Retrofits – German Passive House as model ACI’s 1,000 Home Challenge

Cars (13.5 BOE/c/year) Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit Metrolite from India Electric bicycles – China’s real transportation growth

Food (10 BOE/c/year) Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products Change your diet Eat locally grown non-industrial food

#1 Target – US Homes – Size Matters Most

Per capita square foot 1950 – 260 2008 – 800

New US home size

1950 – 1,000 sq. ft. 2007 – 2,300 sq. ft

US residences almost twice as large as Europe or Japan

A cultural issue

U.S. Energy Use in Buildings

50% of US energy is used in buildings 40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy

US has about 130 million residences (80 million buildings) New building – about 1.0 million units yearly

“Green Building” – Too Little, Too Late LEED, Energy Star Ineffective

Programs reduce energy use by 15% – 25% (need 80% – 90%) “Green buildings” are less than 5% of new construction

Less than 1% of existing stock after a decade

Would take about 75 years to turn over the building stock

Home Energy Reductions

Easier Lighting – CFLs reduce energy use by factor of three Plug leaks: 15 – 30% of heat loss – low cost Insulate attic – inexpensive Window coverings – inexpensive and fast

Harder and costly – but with very large payoff Replace windows Modify (thicken) the building envelope Move ductwork into the conditioned space

Needed – A Thick Building Envelope

The German Passive House

Passive Houses use 90% less heating and cooling energy They have no external heat source or air conditioning

13th Annual Passive House Conference

Held four months ago in Frankfurt 1,200 attendees from around

the world 100 presenters

Tours of homes/schools

About 20,000 passive houses/buildings to date

18 years since first build – a maturing technology Windows, heat exchangers, insulation, sealants

Achieving the 90% heating/cooling reduction

Challenge – Retrofit Existing Buildings

1,000 sq. foot. Carriage House Thicken walls, roof, floors First floor 4” rigid, 7 “ fiberglass Double wall added – 12’ total Roof rafters – from 2x4 to 2x12

Installed a heat exchanger

Replaced windows

A model for retrofitting

Retrofit Building Energy Savings and $$

Wide range of estimates to redo all homes 130 million residence @ $40,000 is $5 trillion. Impossible? Maybe – only 7 years of US real military budget Or a year or two of bailing out banks !

Far cheaper than paying fuel bills – e.g. 2008 to 2050 (42 yr) Save 10 boe yearly– estimate $300 boe eqv. in 2012+ $3,000 yearly for 40 years = $120,000

Culture likely to adopt 1950s values – homeowners do work!

Any serious sustainability group must have a retrofitting plan!

#2 Target – The Private Car

U.S. has 210 million cars/SUVs/pickups U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime

75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly

U.S. fleet mileage 21 mpg; Europe 42 mpg; Japan 47 mpg

Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades Hybrids less than 1% of cars after 10 years This is a little known “scale” issue

U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone

Passengers per trip U.S. Transportation Energy Book, 2008

New Mass Transit Success Questionable

Mass transit typically just supplements cars Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit

Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,496 SUV – 4,329 Bus Transit – 4,318 Airplane – 3,959 Amtrak Train – 2,760 Rail transit – 2,569 Vanpool – 1,294

How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?

Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox)

Efficiency isn’t the answer From 750 million 30

mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars?

3 times the efficiency – 5 times the number of cars

1–2% yearly tech improvements and population increase

2–4% yearly oil depletion rate

What About a Jitney?

A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule

An unlicensed taxicab

Essence of the Jitney Shared transit with cars Not mass transit with buses

Common in 85% of world

The “Smart” Jitney Proposal

Every existing car can be jitney “Shared transit” – not mass transit

Made possible by new communications/GPS technology A software problem – not hardware; All components exist!

Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules

“Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75–80%

Status – Operational!!! Avego of Ireland is first out of the box First US “Real Time Rideshare” conference April ’09 at MIT Should expect announcements soon in MA and CA

#3 Target – Food

May be the hardest changes – behavior changes But the easiest physically – no new technology

Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars

Suffering of food animals is horrific

Garden and buy locally grown food CS has its own garden – supports CSAs

John Michael Greer – Organic garden is contemporary!!

Restore rural America

Local Work in Yellow Springs

Council formed Electrical System Task Force in 2007 Cancelled a new $3 million substation Withdrew from planned AMP-Ohio coal plant

Council formed Energy Task Force for long range planning

New home energy audit company – working with local college

CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership Will review town’s energy use Different than token sign ups for Architecture 2030 or Kyoto

Must measure usage and design solutions – not easy Metro Lite

Time Is Getting Short

Peak Oil may have already occurred – July 2008 IEA November 2008 report – acknowledges depletion

Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate” Artic ice melt is accelerating

Survivability needs 80-90% reduction of energy use (4-5% yearly) “Incrementalism is death”… Stephen Tanner (BioHaus)

No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV

Must change habits and way of life – become different people Using intermediate proven technologies

Financial Crisis Creates Opportunity

Financial corporations have defrauded–swindled–cheated us Will mean cutbacks in energy exploration and R & D This could end our love affair with corporate America

Important to consider inequity in post great depression period Up to 1929: Very high inequity 1930s – 1980s: focus on increasing equity 1980 – 2008: Inequity buildup like pre 1929 period

Curtailment will be unavoidable – and that is not all bad In the depression community flourished ! !

Expect a Community Resurgence

Early 2000s was like pre-depression period (roaring 20s)

Things were declining before October 1929 – like now

The financial crisis is a crisis of character The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes Consumer debt triggered both depressions

Free Market has become a license to steal

Community provides the alternative value system Cooperation, not competition Values of “caring and sharing”

Summary

CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community No techno–fix(es) can maintain current way-of-life

CS projects are directed at personal 2/3 of energy consumption Houses, Cars, Food Working with Low Energy building organizations – Affordable

Comfort, Inc., Passive House Institute – US Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego) & India Working with farmers for local food production

Our view – A return to high satisfaction low-e communities World sacrificed community for consumerism Horrible mistake – community will be reborn Strong community means less materialism (energy)

Einstein’s Reminder

“We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when

we created them”

All our thinking (and values) since WWII has been to consume more

Our current way of living (values) is threatening life on earth

Time for new thinking & new values How about Community? And High Satisfaction Low–e Living