1 faith in place a challenge to faith the energy depletion reality illinois interfaith power &...
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Faith in Place
A Challenge to A Challenge to FaithFaith
The Energy Depletion The Energy Depletion RealityReality
Illinois Interfaith Power & Light
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Oil & Natural Gas Supply
When will they peak?
Where are reserves located?
How does it affect us?
What are our options?
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Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil
Bump in the line above represents
the 100 years when most of the world’s oil was consumed
Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html
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Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil
Extend the line 5 miles to the left for the time it took to create the oil
125 million years
At 2001 Global Consumption RateOil consumed each day took 4800 years to create
Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html
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Our Current Lifestyles
World Energy Usage
Critically dependent on oil & natural gas
Food ProductionHome HeatingTransportation
Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics 2003 (1 Mtoe = 11,630 GWh)
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Early 1960s
Oil discoveries peaked
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
80
60
40
20
Bil
lion
s of
Oil
-Eq
uiv
alen
t B
arre
ls
0
Source: Harry Longwell, Exxon Mobile, “The future of the oil and gas industry: past approaches, new challenges,” World Energy 5(3), 2002
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The North Sea’s Oil Depletion
Zittel, W, 2001 "Analysis of the UK oil production". L-B-SystemTechnik www.energiekrise.de/e/articles/Analysis_of_UK_oil_production.pdf
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Oil Production Peaking Soon
Source: Bruce Robinson, Australia’s Oil Vulnerability, citing: ASPO Statistical Review of Oil and Gas, Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweeden, 23-25 May, 2002. Edited by K. Aleklett and C. Campbell, www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002, See Also Campbell & Laherrere, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83.
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1979 – Per Capita Global Oil Production Peaked
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Pro
du
ctio
n P
er C
apit
a (B
/c/y
r)
6.0
3.0
0.0
(Years)
Peak 1979
Source: World Energy Production, Population Growth, And the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, Richard C. Duncan, As published in Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5; See also: Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America, Summit 2000 in Reno, Nevada on November 13, 2000
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Evolution: Oil Reserves by Region
Middle East Includes: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait Source: BP (British Petroleum) statistical review of world energy 2003 -http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/downloads/index.asp
1982 Proven Reserves 2002 Proven ReservesAfrica
9%Asia/Pacific 6%
N. America14%
S. & Cent. America 4%
MiddleEast54%
Europe &Eurasia 13%
Africa 7%
Asia/Pacific 4%
N. America
5%
S. & Cent. America 9%
MiddleEast66%
Europe &Eurasia 9%
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If all the people in the world …
Enjoyed a standard of living and energy consumption rates similar to that of the of average American, AND …
The world’s population continued to grow at a rate of 1.5% …
The world’s fossil fuel reserves
would last about 15 years
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How long can US oil consumption increase?
Data Source: US DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2003 (Solid lines = estimates. World Production fit based on 2 trillion barrels ultimately recoverable. )
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1950 2000 2050 2100
(Year)
(Bill
ion
Bar
rel /
Yea
r)
US Consumption
US Production
2040 US Consuming entire World Output
World Production
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The problem we are facing is …
We must reduce our demand for nonrenewable
gas and oil
until it reaches
ZERO.
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The problem we are facing is …
• The economy of consumption is not the economy that any of our faiths proclaim
• The change that is required is on a scale that can only be described as religious
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How does it affect us?
Food
Shelter
Transportation
Consumer Goods
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Food
Soil erosion on cropland5 tons/year/acre in U.S.
12 tons/year/acre Worldwide.
3000 years to recover 6 inches of topsoilLand degradation alone expected to reduce food production 15% - 30% by 2020We are compensating by using oil and gasWhen oil and gas are gone - how to grow food?
We are using fossil fuel to compensate for worldwide soil loss and degradation
Source: David Pimentel et. Al., “Will limits of the Earth’s resources control human numbers?” Cornell University, 1999.
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U.S. Food Production Efficiency
Source: Energy Use in the US Food System, John Steinhart and Carol Steinhart, Science, 1974, pp. 307-316
Cal
ori
es o
f E
ner
gy
Inp
ut
for
1 C
alo
rie
of
Fo
od
Ou
tpu
t
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
20
10
5.0
2.0
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.02
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Shelter in the U.S.
Median size of a new home built in the U.S.
1949: 1,100 sq. ft. 1970: 1,385 sq. ft 1996: 1,950 sq. ft.
Household size in the U.S.
1970: 3.14 persons per household1995: 2.65 persons per household
Source: All Consuming Passion, Third Edition, 1998, New Road Map Foundation and Northwest Environment Watch.
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Transportation: 27% U.S. Energy
U.S. Consumption in 1997 by Sector
Transportation 25.04 quads
27%
Industrial 35.43 quads
38%
Residential & Commercial
33.74 quads
36%
TOTAL 94.21 quads
EIA Annual Energy Review 1998 (published January 2000)
Source: http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/energy/stats_
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Consumer Goods: Wasting Energy
Product Wasting Rate(% discarded)
Quantity(million tons)
Disposable Diapers
100% 3.1
Disposable Tissues, Cups
100% 4.9
Clothing,Footwear
87% 5.0
Appliances 48% 2.1
Newsprint 45% 6.1
Source: EPA, “Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the U.S.: 1998 Update, as reported by the GrassRoots Recycling Network
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Our Options
0
20
40
60
80
1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075
(Year)
(Gb
oe
/ ye
ar)
Demand Growth Efficiency
Transport Mode Shifts
Price/Taxes
City Design
Lifestyle
Other Fuels
Deprivation
After: Swenson, R., 1998 "Alternative Futures for Humanity, the Swenson Curve" www.hubbertpeak.com/scenario.htm
(Gboe = Billion Barrel Oil Equivalent)
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Two Great Responsibilities
All Faiths share a sense of two great responsibilities
That we love one another
That we care for Creation
What does this tell us about our options in the world?
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Present Energy Plan
Ramp up coal & nuclear
To compensate for reduced availability of oil & natural gas
Continue to increase consumption
And …
Add small amounts of renewables to U.S. energy supply
Very slowlyIncludes wind, solar, biomass, & geothermal
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Problem 1. Pollution, Short-term Solutions
Massive increases in pollution and nuclear waste (5 -15 times present amts / year)
Very limited term solution … Domino Effect
Oil
NuclearCoal
Natur
al G
as 41 years
17 years
17 years14 years
Then What??
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Problem 2. Climate Change
grams CO2 per kW-hr
Coal: 890-975Wind: 5 – 22
1870 1930 1990 2050 2110 (Year
)
Glo
bal M
ean
Tem
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(
ºC
)
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
Top solid line: measured temperaturesDashed lines: Natl Ctr for Atmospheric Research
model results Red x is 2002 average global temperature.
x
Sources: The Crowded Greenhouse, John Firor and Judeth Jacobsen, Yale University Press, 2002, World Nuclear Association, Energy Analysis of Power Systems, February 2003 http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf11.htm
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Alternative: Switch Once … to Renewables
OilRenewables
Wind, Solar, Biomass
Gas
Coal
En
erg
y
TimeUse the remaining oil and gas to help switch the infrastructure to renewables. A switch to renewables will be much more difficult if we
exhaust oil and gas first.
Phase it out
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Faith in Place Programs
Illinois Interfaith Power & Light
Food of Faith
Youth Stewardship Programming
Local Interfaith Sustainability Circles
Earth Stewardship Education
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Illinois Interfaith Power & Light
The Religious Community must lead the demand for development of renewable energy locally
Illinois Interfaith Power & Light does this through
Aggregating congregational demand for locally produced wind powerProviding guidance through workshops on energy conservation
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Food of Faith
We must consume food that is grown with minimal energy inputs
We must create new supply mechanisms and product lines for food that is locally- and sustainably produced, good to the earth and to people
Food of Faith is doing this with TAQWA Eco~Foods, Harvest of Hope Winter Farmers Markets, & other programs
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From the Ground Up
We must teach these values to our children
A need for youth programming for congregations
An urban agriculture programHelps young people understand natural systems and God’s careVermicomposting, beekeeping, & community gardening to a better world
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Contact
For more info on Faith in Place and its programs
Rev. Clare Butterfield, Director773-278-4800, ext. [email protected]