Sub-Saharan Africa Team

• Agenda– Intro to Africa– Methodology for ranking our issues– Issues (with multiple slides)– Sources to use and how they will be applied– Road Ahead

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Rob Canavosio-ZuzelskiCurt Hammill

Bill MullenRay Simms

The Size, Diversity and Challenges of Africa

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Ethno-Linguistic Groups

“Poor economic policies—rooted in patrimonial interests and incomplete economic reform—will likely exacerbate ethnic and religious divides as well as crime and corruption in many countries.”

“Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other places in Africa will remain battlegrounds in this sectarian struggle.”

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Human Development Index

“Many countries— especially the landlocked and resource poor ones in Sub Saharan Africa—lack the fundamentals for entering the globalization game. By 2025-2030, the portion of the world considered poor will shrink by about 23 percent, but the world’s poor—still 63 percent of the globe’s population—stand to become relatively poorer, according to the World Bank.”

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HIV/AIDS in Africa

“Although prevention efforts and local behavioral changes will depress infection rates globally, experts expect HIV/AIDS to remain a global pandemic through 2025 with its epicenter of infection in Sub-Saharan Africa.”

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Life Expectancy

Countries with youthful age structures and rapidly growing populations form … [an] “arc of instability”. Three quarters of the three dozen “youth bulge countries” projected to linger beyond 2025 will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Methodology

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Criteria for Evaluation

1. Individual Needs– Food/Water– Housing– Fuel– Security– Medical

2. Country Stability– Internal Security– Sufficient material goods– Economy/Resources– Education– Infrastructure

3. Trans-National Stability– Civil Unrest– Food Instability– Economic Disparity– External Influences– Terrorism

Sub-Saharan Africa

“By examining a small number of variables that we judge probably will have a disproportionate influence on future events and possibilities…“By examining a small number of variables that we judge probably will have a disproportionate influence on future events and possibilities…

…the study seeks to help recognize signposts indicating where events are headed and to identify opportunities for policy intervention.”…the study seeks to help recognize signposts indicating where events are headed and to identify opportunities for policy intervention.”

Inside the proper Geographic Context

Applied to

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Issue Individual Needs

Country Stability

Trans-National Stability

Total

Globalizing Economy

Shift in Power from West to East 1 1 1 3

Growing Middle Class 2 2 1 5

Resolving Global Imbalances 2 3 3 8

Multiple Financial Nodes 1 1 2 4

Demographics of Discord

Pensioner Boom 0 0 0 0

Youth Bulges 2 2 2 6

Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts 1 2 1 5

New Players

China / India 0 1 0 1

Russia / Europe / Japan / Brazil 0 0 0 0

Iran / Indonesia / Turkey 0 0 0 0

Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty (Resources)

Post Petroleum Age 1 2 2 5

Geopolitics of Energy 1 2 2 5

Water, Food and Climate Change 2 2 2 7

3 – Large Impact on SSA 2 – Impact on SSA 1 – Limited Impact to SSA 0 - Marginal Impact to SSA

S

S

S

S

S

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Issue Individual Needs

Country Stability

Trans-National Stability

Total

Growing Potential For Conflict

Arc of Instability 1 2 3 6

Risk of Nuclear Arms Race in Mid-East 1 1 2 4

New Conflicts over Resources 2 2 2 6

Terrorism 1 1 2 4

Afghanistan / Pakistan / Iraq 0 0 0 0

International System

Multi-Polarity without Multilateralism 1 1 1 3

How Many International Systems 0 1 1 2

A World of Networks 0 1 1 2

Power Sharing in a Multi-Polar World

Demand for US Leadership 0 0 1 1

New & Old Relationships 0 1 1 2

Less Financial Margin of Error 0 1 1 2

More Limited Military Superiority 0 1 1 2

Surprises and Unintended Consequences 0 1 1 2

Leadership Will be Key 0 1 1 2

S

S

11 3 – Large Impact on SSA 2 – Impact on SSA 1 – Limited Impact to SSA 0 - Marginal Impact to SSA

Principal Issues

• Economic Challenges• Population Stresses• Resources• Civil Conflict

Sub-Saharan Africa

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Key Issues

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Economic Challenges

• SSA Is & Will Continue to be a Major Supplier of Oil, NG, Metals, Jewels– Income May Not Benefit the Majority of

the Population• Poor Economic Policy• Patrimonial Intersects• Incomplete Economic Reform

– Will Exacerbate• Elite/Non-Elite Populations • Political / Religious Extremes• Ethnic Divides

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2025 Population Stresses- SSA will exceed 1 billion people

- 60% will be age 24 or under- Disease Spread due to Pop. Density- High Unemployment as economies

lag behind Population growth- Massive Investments in infrastructure

will be needed- Wars may be needed to distract the

citizens from internal woes

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Climate Change Impact on Resources

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/impacts/high-end

• Impacts to SSA Region with a 4 Degrees Celsius Temperature Change- Increased Forest Fires - Crop Damage- Stress on Water Supplies- Drought Conditions- Health Risks (Malaria, Denge Fever, Malnutrition)

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Vulnerability to civil conflict

• Sub-Saharan Africa is marked by– militaries fragmented along ethnic or other divides, – limited control of border areas, and – insurgents and criminal groups preying on unarmed

civilians across borders.

• Central Africa contains the most troubling of these cases, including – Congo-Kinshasa, Congo-Brazzaville, Central African

Republic, and Chad.

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Summary

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What to Watch• Countries Vulnerable to – Economic challenges– Population stresses (Growth and Global Warming)

• Disease• Education• Overcrowding • Political Corruption

– Civil conflicts• Cross Border insurgency/Crime• Resource stealing

– Wants what neighbor has• Hoarding of wealth from resources• Water Supply (requires focused resource investments)

– Major Resource Impacts

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How to Track

• Identify Stable/Unstable countries– Track Marginal Countries

• Progress or Back-Sliding– Develop signatures/monitoring

keys– Track trends for predictions

• Civil Wars– Monitor military actions– Mobilization efforts– Impacts to civilians

• Civil Unrest– Economic Disruptions– Gatherings in streets– Gov’t response

• Infrastructure investment and payoff– Track ‘public works projects’– Key changes in

health/environmental conditions

– Track trends to predict future • Regional Conditions Mapping

– Context & Trend Analysis• International (extra-regional)

actions and interactions– WB/IMF– International Investments (who

& what)

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Methodologies

• Remote Sensing & GIS can support analysis of– Population Assessments – Civil Conflicts– Economic Development– Infrastructure Development

• Complimentary Sources– US Embassy/Political reporting– NSA and Other Intelligence Sources– UN Economic and Public Health Reporting– News services

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Questions

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