![Page 1: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Sub-Saharan Africa Team
• Agenda– Intro to Africa– Methodology for ranking our issues– Issues (with multiple slides)– Sources to use and how they will be applied– Road Ahead
1
Rob Canavosio-ZuzelskiCurt Hammill
Bill MullenRay Simms
![Page 2: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Size, Diversity and Challenges of Africa
2
![Page 3: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
![Page 4: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Ethno-Linguistic Groups
“Poor economic policies—rooted in patrimonial interests and incomplete economic reform—will likely exacerbate ethnic and religious divides as well as crime and corruption in many countries.”
“Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other places in Africa will remain battlegrounds in this sectarian struggle.”
4
![Page 5: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Human Development Index
“Many countries— especially the landlocked and resource poor ones in Sub Saharan Africa—lack the fundamentals for entering the globalization game. By 2025-2030, the portion of the world considered poor will shrink by about 23 percent, but the world’s poor—still 63 percent of the globe’s population—stand to become relatively poorer, according to the World Bank.”
5
![Page 6: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
HIV/AIDS in Africa
“Although prevention efforts and local behavioral changes will depress infection rates globally, experts expect HIV/AIDS to remain a global pandemic through 2025 with its epicenter of infection in Sub-Saharan Africa.”
6
![Page 7: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Life Expectancy
Countries with youthful age structures and rapidly growing populations form … [an] “arc of instability”. Three quarters of the three dozen “youth bulge countries” projected to linger beyond 2025 will be located in Sub-Saharan Africa.
7
![Page 8: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Methodology
8
![Page 9: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Criteria for Evaluation
1. Individual Needs– Food/Water– Housing– Fuel– Security– Medical
2. Country Stability– Internal Security– Sufficient material goods– Economy/Resources– Education– Infrastructure
3. Trans-National Stability– Civil Unrest– Food Instability– Economic Disparity– External Influences– Terrorism
Sub-Saharan Africa
“By examining a small number of variables that we judge probably will have a disproportionate influence on future events and possibilities…“By examining a small number of variables that we judge probably will have a disproportionate influence on future events and possibilities…
…the study seeks to help recognize signposts indicating where events are headed and to identify opportunities for policy intervention.”…the study seeks to help recognize signposts indicating where events are headed and to identify opportunities for policy intervention.”
Inside the proper Geographic Context
Applied to
9
![Page 10: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Issue Individual Needs
Country Stability
Trans-National Stability
Total
Globalizing Economy
Shift in Power from West to East 1 1 1 3
Growing Middle Class 2 2 1 5
Resolving Global Imbalances 2 3 3 8
Multiple Financial Nodes 1 1 2 4
Demographics of Discord
Pensioner Boom 0 0 0 0
Youth Bulges 2 2 2 6
Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts 1 2 1 5
New Players
China / India 0 1 0 1
Russia / Europe / Japan / Brazil 0 0 0 0
Iran / Indonesia / Turkey 0 0 0 0
Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty (Resources)
Post Petroleum Age 1 2 2 5
Geopolitics of Energy 1 2 2 5
Water, Food and Climate Change 2 2 2 7
3 – Large Impact on SSA 2 – Impact on SSA 1 – Limited Impact to SSA 0 - Marginal Impact to SSA
S
S
S
S
S
10
![Page 11: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Issue Individual Needs
Country Stability
Trans-National Stability
Total
Growing Potential For Conflict
Arc of Instability 1 2 3 6
Risk of Nuclear Arms Race in Mid-East 1 1 2 4
New Conflicts over Resources 2 2 2 6
Terrorism 1 1 2 4
Afghanistan / Pakistan / Iraq 0 0 0 0
International System
Multi-Polarity without Multilateralism 1 1 1 3
How Many International Systems 0 1 1 2
A World of Networks 0 1 1 2
Power Sharing in a Multi-Polar World
Demand for US Leadership 0 0 1 1
New & Old Relationships 0 1 1 2
Less Financial Margin of Error 0 1 1 2
More Limited Military Superiority 0 1 1 2
Surprises and Unintended Consequences 0 1 1 2
Leadership Will be Key 0 1 1 2
S
S
11 3 – Large Impact on SSA 2 – Impact on SSA 1 – Limited Impact to SSA 0 - Marginal Impact to SSA
![Page 12: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Principal Issues
• Economic Challenges• Population Stresses• Resources• Civil Conflict
Sub-Saharan Africa
12
![Page 13: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Key Issues
13
![Page 14: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Economic Challenges
• SSA Is & Will Continue to be a Major Supplier of Oil, NG, Metals, Jewels– Income May Not Benefit the Majority of
the Population• Poor Economic Policy• Patrimonial Intersects• Incomplete Economic Reform
– Will Exacerbate• Elite/Non-Elite Populations • Political / Religious Extremes• Ethnic Divides
14
![Page 15: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
2025 Population Stresses- SSA will exceed 1 billion people
- 60% will be age 24 or under- Disease Spread due to Pop. Density- High Unemployment as economies
lag behind Population growth- Massive Investments in infrastructure
will be needed- Wars may be needed to distract the
citizens from internal woes
15
![Page 16: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Climate Change Impact on Resources
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/impacts/high-end
• Impacts to SSA Region with a 4 Degrees Celsius Temperature Change- Increased Forest Fires - Crop Damage- Stress on Water Supplies- Drought Conditions- Health Risks (Malaria, Denge Fever, Malnutrition)
16
![Page 17: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Vulnerability to civil conflict
• Sub-Saharan Africa is marked by– militaries fragmented along ethnic or other divides, – limited control of border areas, and – insurgents and criminal groups preying on unarmed
civilians across borders.
• Central Africa contains the most troubling of these cases, including – Congo-Kinshasa, Congo-Brazzaville, Central African
Republic, and Chad.
17
![Page 18: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
![Page 19: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Summary
19
![Page 20: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
What to Watch• Countries Vulnerable to – Economic challenges– Population stresses (Growth and Global Warming)
• Disease• Education• Overcrowding • Political Corruption
– Civil conflicts• Cross Border insurgency/Crime• Resource stealing
– Wants what neighbor has• Hoarding of wealth from resources• Water Supply (requires focused resource investments)
– Major Resource Impacts
20
![Page 21: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
How to Track
• Identify Stable/Unstable countries– Track Marginal Countries
• Progress or Back-Sliding– Develop signatures/monitoring
keys– Track trends for predictions
• Civil Wars– Monitor military actions– Mobilization efforts– Impacts to civilians
• Civil Unrest– Economic Disruptions– Gatherings in streets– Gov’t response
• Infrastructure investment and payoff– Track ‘public works projects’– Key changes in
health/environmental conditions
– Track trends to predict future • Regional Conditions Mapping
– Context & Trend Analysis• International (extra-regional)
actions and interactions– WB/IMF– International Investments (who
& what)
21
![Page 22: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Methodologies
• Remote Sensing & GIS can support analysis of– Population Assessments – Civil Conflicts– Economic Development– Infrastructure Development
• Complimentary Sources– US Embassy/Political reporting– NSA and Other Intelligence Sources– UN Economic and Public Health Reporting– News services
22
![Page 23: Sub-Saharan Africa Team Agenda – Intro to Africa – Methodology for ranking our issues – Issues (with multiple slides) – Sources to use and how they will](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070411/56649f555503460f94c78d01/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Questions
23