Thought Leaders Round Table – SAT. 17 May – FIU – Miami

Strategy Presentation by

Michael Rowan and Luis Fleischman

About Dr. Luis Fleischman

• Two decades of Middle East and national security expertise

• Senior advisor for the Menges Hemispheric Security Project

at the Center for Security Policy (Washington)

• Co-editor with Nancy Menges of The Americas Report

• Author of “Latin America in the Post Chavez Era: The

Threat to U.S Security”, 2013

• Columnist and commentator for radio & TV

• Adjunct professor of Sociology and Political Science at

Florida Atlantic University Honors College

• M. A. and Ph.D. in Sociology from the New School for

Social Research in New York City

• B.A degree in Political Science and Labor Studies from

Tel Aviv University, Israel

About Michael Rowan

• Columnist for El Universal - 1996 to present

• Columnist for Veneconomia - 1999 to present

• Author, Getting Over Chavez & Poverty - 2006 (Libros El Nacional)

• Co-Author, The Threat Closer to Home - 2009 (Free Press)

• Presidential campaign strategist in Venezuela: 1993 (Claudio Fermin)

and 2006 (Manuel Rosales)

• Strategist for Oscar Arias (Costa Rica), Rafael Hernandez Colon (P.R.),

Jaime Paz Zamora (Bolivia), Bas Panday (Trinidad & Tobago),

Joaquim Balaguer (Dominican Republic)

• Campaign consultant in 36 US states (1970 – 2010)

• President, International Association of Political Consultants (1986-7)

• Co-founder of Climate Prosperity Enterprise Solutions LLC - 2009 to present

About Venezuelan-Americans

have university degrees (compared to 29% of Americans) 51%

70% are fluent in English

Source: US State Department

What’s it about?

• Government repression of the citizenry

• Paramilitary hit-and-run motorbike thugs

• Excessive use of deadly force

• Confiscation of constitutional freedoms

• A climate of fear and scarcity

The toll so far

41

785

2,200

60

Dead

Wounded

Arrested

Allegedly tortured

Global condemnation of brutality

US & EU:

“Excessive use of force,

unacceptable repression”

Mario Vargas Llosa:

“Venezuela is going the way

of Cuba and North Korea”

El Universal, April, 2014

Vatican, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador

initiative for dialogue…

Getting Nowhere

The Government

is not serious

Thus: the PS&S campaign

To get the government

to seriously negotiate,

sanction its criminals

Venezuela’s Democracy

Assets

Sanctions pressure

from US and world

could leverage

a livable deal

Venezuelan history is

free, democratic,

and prosperous Venezuelans are

culturally unified

History at 1970

Large

middle class:

30% then vs.

5% now

Poised to

enter the

First

World

First

democracy

in Latin

America

1958

Values

Keller survey, March 2014

75% prefer

democratic

government

18% revolutionary

government

81% say many private

enterprises are

essential for the

progress of all

Venezuelans

Culture

90%+ still believe in

private

property

private

enterprise

private

schools

individualism

free

speech

free press

right to

peaceful

assembly

rule of law

Press & TV Media

Historically free, private,

and independent

And competitive

Big data shows

TV Telenovelas

Game shows

Sports

Entertainment

Advertising

resonate with

a culture of

Consumers

Free choice

Individualism

Democracy

Law

Last Man Standing

Here’s a surprise

DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013

85% watch the

2 private TV stations

remaining

even though

8 GOV channels

are actively

persecuting

private TV

Here’s a bigger surprise!

85% of pro-government

voters watch

private TV

every day

DATOS and 30.11 Consultores audience research surveys, 2013

90% of the poorest

Venezuelans

(E class)

watch private TV

every day

Myth Reality

Venezuela is

polarized

50/50

90%+ of Venezuela is

culturally

unified

Conclusion

Venezuela can

be unified again

around a

Government

for all

Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State

Entrenched corrupt regime

Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia

Venezuela’s Democracy

Liabilities

Crime pays

Thus: the PS&S campaign

To get the government

to seriously negotiate,

sanction its criminals

US sanctions are based upon

> US Leverage

Very high because:

The 750,000 b/d from

Venezuela must be refined

in US (no alternatives)

US is only full-price buyer

of Venezuelan oil

Venezuela is dependent on

oil sales for 96% of its

dollar income

> US Values

Democracy

Freedoms

Human Rights

> US Interests

National Security:

Russian missiles

Iranian nuclear materials

FARC cocaine

Cuban “advisors”

Global money-laundering

Venezuelan oil is not a

national interest of US,

which doesn’t need it

US look for sanctions support in

Brazil

Colombia

Chile

Mexico

Canada

Spain France

UK Netherlands

EU

What’s happening

Capital flight

$405B and counting

Mountains of

debt

Hyperinflation

60% to

250%

The solution is foreign

investment, but

Only independent

economic policies

can reverse

disastrous trends

Only independent

economic leaders

are credible

to global investors

Ergo, PM Thatcher’s “TINA”

There Is No Alternative

Independents lead economic ministries,

rationalize the economy, investment returns

Modus vivendi with GOV until the next election

GOV frees political prisoners, students

International monitoring of the agreement

is made transparent

Likely political

supporters of

TINA deal

Vatican

Brazil

Colombia

Maybe:

Ecuador (dollarized economy)

Cuba (8-year dollarized tax-free

investment policy, 15% profit tax

Propose it: Cuba’s law would

be a godsend to Venezuela

Facing TINA, GOV has

three choices

Don’t do it (economy collapses)

Do it (and share the credit

for improvements)

Hesitate (economy collapses)

?

Promote the deal

to all the people

of Venezuela It is a win-win deal

Reject revenge

Embrace amnesty

Dancing over the corpses of adversaries

does not build an advanced homeland” Dissident leader Belal Fadl of Egypt

The operating model

M + D – A = C

Monopoly

+ Discretion

- Accountability

= Corruption

Problem-Solution

The monopoly

addictions

Oil

Dollars

Cocaine

Sanctions pressure

from US and world

could leverage

a livable deal

Venezuelan history is

free, democratic,

and prosperous Venezuelans are

culturally unified

Use Your Assets

Recognize Your Liabilities

Power and money of a Narco-Petro-State

Entrenched corrupt regime

Militarization, Cuba, FARC, Iran, Russia

Long odds against, but democracy has a way of upsetting odds:

Remember Pinochet, Fujimori, Mubarak, Qadaffi