strategic outlook of the global medium-heavy commercial ... · pdf filestrategic outlook of...

Strategic Outlook of the Global Medium-heavy Commercial Truck Market in 2013

Despite Strong Headwinds Sales Volume Poised to Touch 2.8 Million

Sandeep Kar

Global Director- Commercial Vehicle Research

2 NA53-18 NC37-18

Objective of Frost & Sullivan’s

Global Commercial Vehicle Growth Partnership Services

Track commercial vehicle

> Technologies

> Econometrics

> Application

> Markets

Provide information and insights

> Key and emerging market

> Technology trends

> Competitive landscape

Help identify and develop sustainable growth strategies

for our client partners

“Our industry-focused research, combined with extensive experience in all

aspects of the commercial vehicle industry, helps our clients find areas

where they can grow despite the challenges of technology, price,

competition, and regulation.”

T.E.A.M Research to Offer Mission Critical Growth Strategy Development and Execution Support

3 NC37-18

Big 5 Predictions

2

MCV and HCV sales in Next 11, Russia, and Rest of World markets (outside of

TRIAD and BRIC) are poised to increase by 10 to 13 percent. China’s

3.1 percent growth rate, although moderate in comparison to previous years,

will provide upside boost to global demand.

3

1

The global economy is expected to grow by 3 to 3.5 percent in 2013, resulting

in medium and heavy truck demand to increase by 5.6 and 3.6 percent,

respectively. Sales in 2013 for medium-heavy trucks will reach 2.8 million units.

So

urc

e: F

rost &

Su

lliva

n a

na

lysis

.

4

Daimler’s 2013 MD-HD truck sales are expected to reach 350,000 units in

2013; Volvo’s acquisition of Dong Feng could take Volvo Group’s MD-HD

truck sales over the 400,000 units mark.

5

Twenty-eight percent of all heavy-duty trucks sold in 2013 will feature platform-

based lineage, showing tectonic changes in global truck production. Significant

growth in the global low-cost truck market (an 8.6 percent CAGR) will lead to

developments and fine-tuning of several BRIC market-based platforms.

Nearly 6,000 CNG/LNG-powered natural gas trucks will be sold in North

America, while global sales for MD-HD natural gas-powered trucks will reach

16,000 units. Hybrid truck sales will trail NG truck sales.

4 NC37-18

Region GDP Growth

Estimates: 2013 (%)

MCV Growth

(YoY%)

HCV Growth

(YoY%)

Overall CV

Growth

(YoY%)

Market

Opportunity

North

America 2–2.5 8 5.9 6.8 Moderate

South

America 4–5 4.6 7.2 6.3 Moderate

Europe 0.5–1 (3.0) (7.9) (6.9) Low

China 8–8.5 2.0 3.5 3.1 Moderate

India 5.5–6.5 1.5 3.5 2.5 Moderate

Russia 4–6 3.0 13.5 11.1 High

Next 11 6–7 11.1 10.9 11.0 High

RoW 4–5 15.5 9.5 12.7 High

Global 3–3.5 5.6 3.6 4.3 Moderate

2013 Global GDP and Commercial Truck Market Growth Outlook: Growth in BRIC and Next 11 economies are expected to offer strength to global truck demand.

Source: World Bank, Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Global CV 2013: World GDP and CV Growth Outlook Overview, Global, 2013

5 NC37-18

Global Medium and Heavy Truck Market Forecast 2013

Despite strong global headwinds, improving Chinese manufacturing indices and strength in BRIC

and Next 11 countries will elevate global MCV and HCV sales to 2.8 Million by 2013.

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Global CV Outlook 2013: Unit Shipments—Global: 2012–2013

4.3% YoY Growth

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

North America

South America

China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW

MCV HCV

2012

2013 Regional Shares

85.1 %

2013

~2.6 million ~2.8 million

43%

33%

27%

47%

21%

20% 49%

54%

35% 34%

66%

57% 67%

73%

53%

79% 80%

51% 46%

65%

Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.

Un

its

MCV: 6T to 16T

HCV: 16T and above

6 NC37-18

Next 11 Markets: Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and Egypt offer strong growth potential in 2013, as these economies

expect rapid economic development, leading to freight movement expansion.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Egypt Indonesia Iran Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Phillipines Turkey South Korea

Vietnam

2012 2013

14.7% 11.4%

8.5% 9.2%

As the most populous Arab nation, Egypt offers an attractive opportunity for

truck OEMs, as its focus has shifted toward modernizing the economy.

Investment in infrastructure is necessary to drive demand for new trucks.

Global CV Outlook 2013: Unit Sales Forecast—Next 11: 2013

Indonesia is set to double its demand for MCV and HCV by 2018.

The Mexican CV demand is set to triple over the 2011 to 2018

period. Economic growth and rise in construction activity, coupled

with the need for replacement of aging fleet vehicles, will drive

growth.

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Bangladesh data is not present, owing to

lack of availability at the time of publication of this study. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Turkey will experience a rising demand for MCVs and

HCVs in 2013, which is based on both export-oriented

production and local sales.

Un

it S

ale

s

7 NC37-18

Global MCV and HCV Market—Powertrain Technology Forecast: Diesel is expected to retain dominant leadership in the powertrain space; natural gas and

hybrid/electric technology are expected to experience rising proliferation in 2013.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NA SA China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW

Gasoline 8 2 0.5 0 0 0 2 2.1

HEV 1 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.5 0.4

NG 1.5 0 0.4 0.2 0 0.5 0.5 0.5

Diesel 89.5 98 99.1 99.8 100 99.3 97 97

Global CV Outlook 2013: Powertrain Technology Split by Region—Global: 2013


Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and

Bangladesh.

Pe

rce

nta

ge

8 NC37-18

Median range

Analysis of Key Design Parameter Ranges for HD Engine Market (North

America), 2011–2018: Powertrain Downsizing Pushing Weighted Average Engine Displacement to

Under 14 L in Class 8 Trucks by 2018

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Displacement (in L) Torque (in lb. ft.)

2011

2018

2011

2018

2011

2018

Power (in bhp)

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650

1100 1250 1400 1550 1700 1850 2000 2150

1100 1250 1400 1550 1700 1850 2000 2150

13.7 L–14.1 L

13.4 L–13.7 L

2%–3%

reduction

400–520 bhp

425–540 bhp

4%–6%

increase

1250–1650 lb. ft.

1300–1750 lb. ft.

4%–6%

increase

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Heavy-duty Engine Market: Diesel Engine Market Overview, North America, 2011

9 NC37-18

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Un

it S

hip

men

t (‘

000s

)

Optimisitc Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Conservative Scenario

Class 6-8 LNG/CNG Trucks Sales Volume Forecast by Scenarios- North America A steady increase in adoption is expected through the forecast period, and Class 6-8 natural gas

truck shipments are expected to reach 35,429 units in 2017.

Class 6-8 Natural Gas Truck Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Scenarios, North America, 2010–2017


226,400 Units

446,100 Units

2010 2017

15,675

44,610

35,429

1,950

2017 Spark Ignition Compression

Ignition

Total

CNG 11,028 2,757 13,785

LNG 11,904 9,740 21,644

Frost & Sullivan Scenario Breakdown

10 NC37-18

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2011 2018

MD HD

Total Units:

15,300

Total Units:

950

HD Truck- 2018

MD Truck - 2018

MD and HD LNG/CNG Trucks Volume Forecast- Europe The heavy-duty segment set to account for 75% of natural gas truck sales in Europe by 2018.

MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Truck Production Forecast by Category, Europe, 2011 and 2018

Un

its

LNG 22%

CNG 78%

LNG 65%

CNG 35%

Total: 3,825

Total: 11,475

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan

11 NC37-18

Global Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain Combined Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Production is to Reach 307,000 by 2020;

Parallel Hybrids and Pure Electrics Will Be the Largest Contributors to This Growth.

Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain, Global, 2009-2020

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

0

70,000

140,000

210,000

280,000

350,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020

Electric Series Parallel Series-Parallel

Total Units:

307,858

Total Units:

6,934

2020 Unit Shares

EMEA 2020

Asia 2020

30,487

10,623 4,503

52,584

Outside of the big three (North America,

Europe, and China), Brazil, Japan, India,

and Korea are emerging as countries

offering market penetration potential to

hybrid and electric powertrain modules,

systems, and components suppliers.

Americas

53% Europe

13%

Asia

34%

Americas 48.7%

EMEA 14.8%

Asia 36.5%

North America Brazil Rest of

America

Americas 2020 132,859

10,921 5,962

China Korea Japan India Rest of

Asia

14,277

26,825

16,869

1,948

Pro

du

cti

on

Un

its

Western

Europe

Russia Rest of EMEA

12 NC37-18

Global Hot Spots: Continued economic uncertainty in TRIAD and moderation in growth

rates in BRIC will lead to OEMs shifting focus to Next 11 markets; North America and China are

expected to remain strong growth bets for OEMs.


Europe Economic slowdown to

prolong through 2013, thus

impacting CV demand. EU

OEMs are focusing on Next

11 and RoW for growth.

North America CV market to improve marginally

in 2013 with improving economic

indicators. Stronger growth

expected in 3rd and 4th quarters.

Russia Russia to be the most attractive

among the BRIC countries. Market to

grow by 10 percent in 2013.

South America With the recovering Brazilian

economy and renewed resource

demand, trucking will experience

global growth in 2013.

China Strengthening

manufacturing sector

and infrastructure

development to boost

truck demand.

Next 11 Several Next 11 markets to post near

double-digit growth in new truck sales in

2013. Turkey and Indonesia looking

attractive for long-term sustainable growth.

India Domestic demand to remain strong in

2013 with improving economic

activity. Heavy-duty truck market to

grow more quickly than MCV market.

13 NC37-18

HCV

MCV

2009 2016

21 8 13

14

7

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

TATA Prima

MN 25/40

U-Truck

Sinotruk Howo

AsiaMotorWorks

Daimler Brand X

HD

IVECO LC HCV

MAN Force

Sinotruk HuangHe Hyundai HD

DongFeng DFL

GAZ-FAW HD

Volvo-Eicher VE

DongFeng Duo

IVECO’s Chinese

Platform Based MD

Daimler Brand X

MD

GAZ 3309c

2013

Fuso FG LCT ISUZU FTR

Kamaz LCT HD

VolvoDongFeng

LCT HD

Global CV Outlook 2013: Low-cost Truck Model Timeline—World: 2009–2016

Low-cost Truck Market (Global) Over 21 key global low-cost MCV-HCV model ranges

are expected to be introduced by global OEMs between 2009 and 2016; 2013 is a critical year, as

OEMs strive to introduce low-cost truck platforms for both developing and mature markets.

14 NC37-18

Expected number of global platforms available: 2013

HD OEM Outlook for 2013: Participants with global platform portfolios, strong

presences in growth markets, and regional branding are expected to sustain profits globally

in 2013; Daimler is emerging as a strong benefactor of globalization in 2013.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Daimler

Group

Volvo

Group

MAN SE

Scania AB

PACCAR, Inc.

Dongfeng

Motor

Corp.

Beiqi

Foton

Navistar,

Inc.

IVECO

Ashok

Leyland

Clear global strategy,

strong product mix Global strategy evolving,

strong regional products

Size of bubble represents expected production volume attributable to platform-based HD truck models by 2013

TATA Motors

Profitable

only at

regional level

Sought-after

zone

Sustained

profits

globally

Ove

rall

Glo

ba

l P

rese

nce

In

de

x

CNHTC

Global CV Outlook 2013: OEM Outlook Comparative Analysis—Global: 2013

15 NC37-18

Telematics FMS Opportunities by Country—2013: There is a growing demand in North America, Europe, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa; Middle

East and Asia are likely to gain momentum beyond 2015.

1

2

3

6 7

5

4

2 3 4 5 6 7 1 North America Europe Russia Brazil South Africa Middle East Asia


Qualcomm,

Trimble/PeopleNet, XATA,

Teletrac, WebTech Wireless,

Telogis, Network Fleet,

FleetMatics, Actsoft, SkyBitz,

ID Systems, and others

MixTelematics, Digicore,

Netstar, Tracker, and others

Potential Countries

Beyond 2015

Autotrac, Zatix, Onixsat,

WirelessCar, and others

Tom Tom, Masternaut, Transics,

Qualcomm, Microlise, FleetBoard, Dynafleet,

MixTelematics, Trimble, Novacom, Schmitz

Cargobull, IDEM-Krone, and others

China GPS, Ltd.;

FleetBoard; Navman

Wireless; Trimble; and

others

Mobiliz, Arvento, Vektor,

Infotech, Solit, Satko, Pergo,

and others

Arya Omnitalk, eLogistics, CMC

Limited, Pricol, Mahindra

Telematics, Ashok Leyland, Trimble,

iTrack, MobiApp, and others

16 NC37-18

Vehicle Electronics: Common Multiplexed Architecture Across OEMs Laying Out a Common Advanced Electrical and Electronics Platform Will Provide Clear Boundaries for

Integration of Electronics in Cabins; This Will Emerge as a Key Foundation for Future Cabin Design Strategies

Need for Robust, Effective and Efficient Electronics, Communication and

Networking Architecture

Infotainment

Regulation

Compliance

OBD

OBD – On-Board Diagnostics; HVAC – Heating Ventilating and Air-Conditioning

HMI – Driver Comfort &

Convenience Controls

Handheld / Personal

Device Connectivity

Telematics

Connectivity

Safety System

Integration

HVAC

Powertrain

Control

Chassis

Control

Development of

architecture in

compliance with SAE

standards.

J1939, J1708, CAN, LIN

etc - vehicle bus

protocol used for

communication and

diagnostics among

vehicle components

MULTIPLEXED

ARCHITECTURE

Enables

seamless

communication

between vehicle

and devices

Single

standardized

platform will

streamline

product

development for

OEMs and Teir1

suppliers

Since, necessary

infrastructure is

available, new

devices addition

will not require

discrete system

integration and

customization

IEC 60068,

ISO 16750

HCV Market : Common Multiplexed Architecture, EU, 2012

17 NC37-18

North America

South America

China

India

Russia

Europe

Next 11 RoW

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

GVWR (kilogram)

Pri

ce

($

)

Global CV 2013: Highest-selling Weight Segment in Each Region—Global: 2013

Size of the bubble: Sales units of top segments in each country in 2013.

Attractive Commercial Truck Segment by Region—2013 The 18 to 25 MT segment is to be the most attractive among heavy trucks globally at a price band

of $40,000 to $60,000, while the 25 to 30 MT segment is to be the most attractive in NA and EU.


18 NC37-18

2

3

4

5

6

1

Daimler and Volvo will intensify competition in global markets, with both experiencing success

through low-cost truck market exposure. Chinese, Indian, and Korean OEMs will benefit from

growth in MCV demand in Next 11 and African economies.

Volvo’s acquisition of DongFeng stake is expected to not only place it as a global sales leader in

2013, but also to create synergies and opportunities in medium-duty platforms involving Eicher. This

is likely to prove important for BRIC, Next 11, and RoW growth strategy empowerment

In 2013, 22,700 natural gas and hybrid/electric medium and heavy trucks will be sold, of which 71

percent will be CNG/LNG-powered vehicles, and 29 percent will be hybrid and electric vehicles.

Platform-based MCV and HCV production are set to receive major boosts in 2013, with OEMs’

building and executing capacity aimed at generating nearly 34 percent of total production of MCVs

and HCVs from platforms by 2018.

In 2013, 19 percent and 16 percent of all MCVs and HCVs in operation in North America and

Europe, respectively, will feature in vehicle-installed telematics subscription, offering robust revenue

growth opportunities.

Global sales of medium-heavy trucks are expected to grow at 4.3 percent to reach 2.8 million

units. Both US and China markets are expected to grow more quickly than in 2012, while Europe will

experience negative growth of 6.9 percent.

Key Conclusions

19 NC37-18

Questions?

Sandeep Kar

Global Director-Commercial Vehicles

Research

Toronto, Canada

Direct: 416.490.7796

Fax: 416.490.1533

Email: [email protected]

Jeannette Garcia

Corporate Communications Associate

San Antonio, Texas

Direct: 210.477.8427

Fax: 210.348.1003

Email: [email protected]

20 NC37-18

About Frost & Sullivan: Leading Growth Consulting & Research Firm with 40+ Offices in 30 Countries

We propose growth consulting, market and technology research and career-focused best practice training to help clients grow

their businesses.

Milan Sophia Antipolis

Oxford

Frankfurt

Warsaw

Tel Aviv

Dubai

Cape Town Buenos Aires

Bogotá

São Paulo

Mexico City

San Antonio, TX

Mountain View, CA New York

Toronto

Shenzhen

Chennai

Kuala Lumpur

Mumbai

Bangalore

Calcutta

Delhi

Singapore

Shanghai

Sidney Melbourne

Seoul

Tokyo

Paris

London

Hong Kong

Global expertise and local knowledge: 40+ offices worldwide – 1,800+ employees

Moscow

Istanbul

Beijing

Detroit

Auckland

A global company that partners with clients to support the development of growth strategies.

strategic outlook of the global medium-heavy commercial ... · pdf filestrategic outlook of...

Documents