strategic outlook of the global medium-heavy commercial truck market in 2013- research outline
TRANSCRIPT
Strategic Outlook of the Global Medium-heavy Commercial Truck Market in 2013
Despite Strong Headwinds, Sales Volume Poised to Touch 2.8 Million
NC37-18
February 2013
Global
Research Outline
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Research Team
Wallace Lau Research Analyst, Automotive & Transportation
+1.416.490.0813
Bharani Lakshminarasimhan Industry Analyst, Automotive & Transportation
+91 44 66814121
Contributing Analyst
Program Director
Sandeep Kar Global Director, Automotive & Transportation
+1.416.490.7796
Franck Leveque Vice President, Automotive & Transportation
+49 (0) 697703321
Strategic Review Committee Leader
Lead Analyst
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 4
Research Objectives, Methodology, Background, and Scope 11
Definitions/Segmentation 18
Key Global Market Trends- GDP Analysis, Vehicle, Powertrain-Conventional and
Alternative , Telematics, Platform Strategies, OEM Sales Forecast, TCO Analysis in
2013, Attractive Vehicle Segments
20
Impact Analysis of Urban Logistics on the CV market 44
Regional Market Profiles 52
North America Breakdown 53
Europe Breakdown 58
South America Breakdown 63
Russia Breakdown 68
India Breakdown 73
China Breakdown 78
Others(Next 11 and Rest of World including Africa) 83
Key Conclusions 88
Appendix 91
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Executive Summary
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Big 5 Predictions
2
MCV and HCV sales in Next 11, Russia, and Rest of World markets (outside of
TRIAD and BRIC) are poised to increase by 10 to 13 percent. China’s
3.1 percent growth rate, although moderate in comparison to previous years,
will provide upside boost to global demand.
3
1
The global economy is expected to grow by 3 to 3.5 percent in 2013, resulting
in medium and heavy truck demand to increase by 5.6 and 3.6 percent,
respectively. Sales in 2013 for medium-heavy trucks will reach 2.8 million units.
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5
Twenty-two percent of all heavy-duty trucks sold in 2013 will feature platform-
based lineage, showing tectonic changes in global truck production. Significant
growth in the global low-cost truck market (an 8.6 percent CAGR) will lead to
developments and fine-tuning of several BRIC market-based platforms.
Nearly 6,000 CNG/LNG-powered natural gas trucks will be sold in North
America, while global sales for MD-HD natural gas-powered trucks will reach
16,000 units. Hybrid truck sales will trail NG truck sales.
Daimler’s 2013 MD-HD truck sales are expected to reach 350,000 units in
2013; Volvo’s acquisition of Dong Feng could take Volvo Group’s MD-HD
truck sales over the 400,000 units mark.
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Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and
Methodology
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Geographic Regions
The regional markets covered in this research service are:
• North America (United States and Canada)
• Europe (Western European and Central Europe)
• Russia
• China
• India
• South America (Brazil, Argentina, and others)
• Next 11 (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea,
Turkey, and Vietnam)
• Rest of World (RoW)
Geographic Definitions and Research Timeline Research Scope
Source: Frost & Sullivan research.
Commercial Vehicles: MCVs and HCVs (only trucks) Vehicle Type
2013 Forecast Period
2012–2013 Study Period
2012 Base Year
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Research Aims and Objective
Aim
The aim of this research service is to provide an executive outlook of the growth opportunities in the global
commercial vehicle market for 2013.
Objectives
• Provide a strategic overview of key Mega Trends influencing the global CV industry in 2013.
• Provide market drivers, restraints, and opportunities in the global market and regional influence on the
market dynamics.
• Provide insights into the global economy and the impact on the freight demand in the global markets.
• Provide market forecasts of global vehicle sales of MCV and HCVs in 2013.
• Provide market size for advanced powertrain technologies and penetration rates on a global scale.
• Provide impact analysis of urban logistics on global commercial vehicle market.
• Provide market share analysis on a global scale.
• Develop an actionable set of recommendations for market entry and growth.
Source: Frost & Sullivan research.
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Key Questions this Study Will Answer
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Global CV Outlook: Key Questions This Study Will Answer—Global: 2012–2013
What is the impact on freight demand due to the prevailing global economic scenario and its resulting
influence on global CV sales and production?
What is the global market for MCVs and HCVs in 2013? What are the powertrain and telematics
technologies that are being globally adopted in these vehicle segments?
Which markets and technologies will drive growth opportunities for medium-heavy truck market
participants in 2013?
What will be the impacts of Mega Trends on the global commercial vehicle industry in 2013?
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Research Background
This research service is a short summary capturing content from recently published and ongoing research in the
areas of global commercial vehicle powertrain, chassis, safety, telematics, and regulation compliance technologies
and markets:
• NA53-18: Strategic Analysis of Global Platforms of Major Heavy-duty Truck Manufacturers—Completed
• M657-18: Strategic Analysis of Global Low-cost Truck Market—Completed
• N8CF-18 Strategic Analysis of Classes 6–8 Natural Gas Truck Market in North America—Completed
• N998-18 Strategic Analysis of Brazilian Commercial Truck Market—Completed
• P4F1-18 Strategic Analysis of Indian Commercial Vehicle Market—Completed
• NA66- Strategic Analysis of Chinese Commercial Truck Market—Completed
• NAAF- Strategic Analysis of Powertrain Downsizing Strategies of Major Heavy-duty Truck Manufacturers in
North America and Western Europe—Completed
• P6DD- Strategic Analysis of Indonesian Commercial Vehicle Market—Completed
• M905- Strategic Analysis of Turkish Commercial Vehicle Market—Completed
• M6E6-Strategic Analysis of European Commercial Vehicle Telematics Market—Completed
• N838- Strategic Analysis of North American CV Telematics Market—Completed
This study is also supplemented by our ongoing continuous interactions with vehicle manufacturers and
suppliers of alternative powertrain technologies, among other truck technologies.
Source: Frost & Sullivan research.
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Research Methodology
Research Methodology: Frost & Sullivan’s research services are based on primary and secondary
research data.
Primary Research: More than 35 interviews have been conducted over the phone by senior
consultants/industry analysts with original equipment suppliers, regulation authorities, and distributors.
Primary research has accounted for 80 percent of the total research.
Secondary Research: Extraction of information from existing reports and project material within the Frost &
Sullivan database, to include data and information gathered from technical papers, specialized magazines,
seminars, and Internet research.
Global CV Outlook: Partial List of Industry Participants—Global: 2012–2013
Source: Frost & Sullivan research.
OEM: Region—EU
Daimler AG
Volvo AB
MAN SE
Scania AB
IVECO
OEM: Region—NA/BRIC
Paccar, Inc. (Paccar)
Navistar, Inc.
TATA Motors
Beiqi Foton
CNHTC
Supplier: Global
Cummins, Inc.
WABCO
Eaton Corporation
ZF
Allison Transmissions
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Key OEM Groups Included in this Study
The OEM Groups included in this study are as follows:
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Group OEMs
Daimler Group Daimler Trucks North America, LLC; Daimler AG Commercial Vehicles Europe; Daimler
India Commercial Vehicles; Mitsubishi Fuso Truck Company, Ltd.
Volvo Group Volvo Trucks North America, Mack Trucks North America, Volvo Trucks Europe, Renault
Trucks, UD Trucks, Volvo Trucks India, Eicher Volvo Commercial Vehicles
MAN SE MAN Truck & Bus Europe, MAN Latin America
Scania AB Scania AB Europe
IVECO IVECO, SAIC-IVECO Commercial Vehicles China
Paccar, Inc.. Peterbilt Truck Company, Kenworth Truck Company, DAF Trucks N.V.
Navistar, Inc. Navistar International; Mahindra Navistar Automotive, Ltd.
TATA Motors TATA Motors Commercial Vehicle India, TATA Daewoo Commercial Vehicles
Ashok Leyland Ashok Leyland Trucks India
CNHTC China National Heavy Truck Company
DFM Corp. Dongfeng Trucks
Beiqi Foton Foton Trucks China
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Definitions and Segmentation
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Vehicle Segments
Vehicle
Classification Definition
Europe, South
America, India,
China, Russia
and RoW
North America
Medium
Commercial
Vehicles
(MCVs)
MCVs represent all types of mid-size trucks. The
typical application includes home delivery, logistics,
parcel delivery, utilities, waste and recycle
collection, and airport operations.
GVWR >6 MT
& <=16 MT
Class 4,5, 6, and 7
GVWR more than
14,000 lbs. and
lesser than or
equal to 26,000 lbs.
Heavy
Commercial
Vehicles
(HCVs)
This constitutes all types of large trucks. The typical
application includes line haul freight trucks, refuse
trucks, mining and construction trucks, and other
types of vocations that demand high-GVWR trucks.
GVWR >16 MT
Class 8
GVWR more than
33,000 lbs
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Market Engineering Methodology
One of Frost & Sullivan’s core deliverables
is its Market Engineering studies. They
are based on our proprietary Market
Engineering Methodology. This approach,
developed across 50 years of experience
assessing global markets, applies
engineering rigor to the often nebulous art
of market forecasting and interpretation.
A detailed description of the methodology
can be found here.
Source: Frost & Sullivan research.