report automated-truck-technology-outlook-for-heavy-duty-trucks (00000002)

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Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks Exclusively Prepared for the

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Page 1: Report automated-truck-technology-outlook-for-heavy-duty-trucks (00000002)

Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks

Exclusively Prepared for the

Page 2: Report automated-truck-technology-outlook-for-heavy-duty-trucks (00000002)

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Top Market Trends Driving Autonomous Technologies in Trucks With autonomous driving technology development receiving widespread OEM focus, the future of the market is dependent on the support of government policies and early consumer adoption.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Top Trends, Western Europe and North America, 2014–2025

Impact

HighLow

Certainty

Fuel Price Volatility

Declining Cost ofAutonomous Driving Technologies

Shortage of Trained Drivers and Technicians

OEM Strategy for Brand Differentiation

Fleet and Social Acceptance

Rising Demand for Connectivity and Downtime

from Potential Young Drivers

High

Low

Infrastructure and Communication Network Development

Gradually Favorable Legislative Framework

Integration of Safety Systems

Availability and Maturity of Autonomous Driving Technologies

OEM Focus on Developing Smart and Connected Trucks

Economic Recovery Enabling Fleets to Invest in Advanced Technologies

The potential of heavy-duty autonomous driving technologies is expected to drive the trucking industry into a period of dynamic change, influenced heavily by these top market trends. The individual effects of these trends will determine the level of autonomy achieved in trucks by 2025

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How OEMs Will Differentiate Their Brand in the Future All major OEM R&D focal points indicate automated mobility as a strategic priority and a key brand differentiator

Source: Frost & Sullivan

QUALITY & RELIABILITY

COMFORT & CONVENIENCE

COST OF OWNERSHIP

CONNECTIVITY & SMART

HEALTH & WELLNESS

ADVANCED SAFETY

PRE 2000 TODAY FUTURE

POWERTRAIN EFFICIENCY

SUSTAINABILITY & ENVIRONMENT

AUTOMATED MOBILITY

SERVICE & MAINTENANCE

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Automated Driving BenchmarkTruck OEMs have the capability to create semi- or highly automated vehicles today. The biggest challenge is taking the driver out of the loop and providing a robust business case for fleet adoption

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Levels of Automated Driving, Western Europe and North America, 2014

Enabling Technology

Incremental Cost

Year Expected

Distance/Duration

of Automation

Driver Involvement

Vocation Application

(Long-haul, Regional,

Vocational)

Level of Automation

None

Level 1

$0

Today

None

Very High

All

LowMedium-High MediumHigh

• Electric power steering (EPS), electric braking systems (EBS), electronic throttle control, adaptive cruise control (ACC), advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)

Level 2

$5,000–$10,000

~2015–2020

Low

High

Long-haul

Regional

Vocational

• V2X, DSRC, integrated safety systems (ISS), cameras, sensors, ACC

Truck Platooning

$5,000–$10,000

~2020–2025

Moderate

Moderate

Long-haul

Regional

Vocational

• Intersection assist, redundancy backup for connectivity, self-driving capability until driver takes over control

Level 3

$20,000–$25,000

~2025–2030

Moderate-High

Moderate-Low

Long-haul

Regional

Vocational

• Multiple redundancies (hardware) and artificial intelligence (software)

Level 4

$30,000 +

~ 2035 +

High

None

Long-haul

Regional

Vocational

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Value Proposition of Automated Commercial VehiclesAutomated driving paves the way for the automotive industry to address 3 key goals: save lives, save the environment, and reduce human effort

Note: A full list of abbreviations can be found in the Appendix. Source: Frost & Sullivan

Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Parametric Analysis of Ecosystem, Western Europe and North America, 2014

Parameter Present (Level 1 and 2 Automation) Future (Level 3 and 4 Automation)

• Fleet Benefit

• Traffic Deaths

• Fuel Economy Benefit

• Key Stakeholder

• Cost

• Driver Solution

• Functional Safety Systems

• Activities Allowed

• Software Architecture

• Little to none in terms of productivity

• ~33,000 (2014 US)

• Little to none from ADAS

• OEM, Tier I suppliers

• ~$5,000 to $10,000

• Drivers will still need all standard training and certification while adhering to all regulations (e.g., Compliance, Safety, Accountability [CSA], HOS); will help in improving safety of vehicles

• ACCS, ACC, BSD, CMS, DIWS, ESC, LDW, EOBR, DDWS, ISS

• Talking on the phone, using the HMI, eating

• Automotive Open System Architecture (AUTOSAR)

• Improvements to fuel efficiency, productivity, driver satisfaction

• <20,000 (US by 2025)

• ~3% due to efficient driving, ~10% potential from platooning

• Mobility integrator, IT companies, insurance companies

• ~$20,000 to $25,000

• Possible solution to global driver shortage, reduced driver stress, improved work conditions; will revolutionize on-road driving environment

• Fail-operational multiple redundancies (sensors, cameras, software), artificial intelligence, V2X, automated controls

• Sleeping, reading, using the Internet, completing office work

• AUTOSAR with timing specification, Dedicated OS for automated driving

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Automated Commercial Vehicles by ApplicationAutomated trucks will be used in all applications and operating environments to improve productivity, cost efficiency, and safety

20252014 2020 2035

Op

era

tio

nal E

nv

iro

nm

en

t

Open

Restrictive

Semi-Restrictive

2030

Time

Agriculture Construction

Bus & Coach

• Automated bus rapid transit

• Semi-autonomous coach buses

Defense

• Drones• Driverless trucks

for logistics, transport, and hazard detection

• Semi- or fully automated tractors, combines, and harvesters

• Semi- or fully autonomous dump and material handling trucks

Mega Factories

• Semi- or fully autonomous goods transfer trucks and vehicles

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: Commercial Vehicle Application Areas, Europe and North America, 2014–2035

Declining Stable Rising

On-highway

• Semi-autonomous trucks

• Truck platooning• Road train with 1

primary driver leading convoy of driverless trucks

Off-highway

• Semi- or fully autonomous material hauling trucks

Harbor/Port

• Semi- or fully autonomous multi-modal freight transfer

Refuse

• Semi-autonomous city garbage truck pickup

Regional

• Autonomous snow plow trucks

• Dedicated route freight delivery

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Regulatory Changes Necessary for Accelerating Autonomous TrucksRegulatory changes and legislative framework regarding autonomous trucks are vital for their success

Unimportant Moderate Important Source: Frost & Sullivan

Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market : Regulatory Analysis, Western Europe and North America, 2014 and 2025

Driver Hours

(HOS)

• Maximum 11-hour driving limit after 10-consecutive-hour rest period

• Must enter work hours into a logbook

Regulation Current Status (2014) Significance

• Customized ruling for drivers in level 3 or above trucks to be able to log more hours consecutively while driving in autonomous mode

Emission

• Environmental Protection Agency Greenhouse Gas 2014 standards

• Euro VI standards

• Continued efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while making trucks run more efficiently and effectively

Safety

• Mandates for stability control systems• Proposed mandates for forward

collision mitigation, braking, and lane departure warning

• Every new truck will be required to have advanced safety systems (e.g., sensors, cameras, electronic controls, stability) installed, enabling the proliferation of autonomous driving technologies

Cyber security • None• Cybersecurity regulations will be new to the trucking industry.

With the increasingly threat of cyber attacks, autonomous vehicles will need protection

Communication

Network

• Proposed mandate for DSRC for passenger vehicles

• Trucking mandates for DSRC communication and implementation of V2X communication networks, which will be crucial for the safe operation of autonomous vehicles

Liability• None for autonomous vehicles;

testing is still required

• Insurance and automotive industries, government, and society will need to come to an understanding of the risks and safety concerns regarding autonomous vehicles on the road

Future Status (2025)

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Key Implications on Human FactorsAutonomous driving technologies could significantly affect the trucking industry, especially regarding driver shortages, driver performance, and driver safety

Source: Frost & Sullivan

RecruitingDrivers

RetainingDrivers

Driver Safety

DriverPerformance

Driver Wages

Driver-related FuelEfficiency

Level 4Automation

Productivity

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The Last Word—5 Big Predictions

Autonomous Heavy-duty Truck Market: 5 Big Predictions, Western Europe and North America, 2014

Technology – Semi-autonomous trucks (level 3) will reach a penetration rate of 5% by 2030, enabled by the convergence of advanced technologies such as sensors, radars, connectivity systems, cameras, and safety systems. Fully autonomous vehicles (level 4) are not expected to enter into the market before 2035. Truck platooning applications are expected to be used as early as 2025 on the back of increasing penetration of ACC and ISS in new trucks

Technology

OEM – By 2025, the emerging reality of semi-autonomous vehicles will gain traction in the market as a means for OEMs to grow their business and drastically change the landscape of the trucking industry. OEMs will look to vertically integrate their systems, significantly impacting the Tier I supply chain. Three of the major truck OEMs globally are expected to account for 80% of the autonomous trucks produced.

OEM

Tier I – Tier I suppliers will enter the retrofit market for autonomous driving technologies to develop a solution with IT software companies, safety systems, and connectivity system suppliers to combat OEMs’ planned vertical integration solution. Their system solution is expected to provide consumers with a more affordable solution while helping increase the penetration of autonomous driving systems. The impact of Tier I suppliers is expected to help drive prices lower by about 5% and increase autonomous technology penetration by 10%

Tier I

Fleets– By 2025, enough autonomous vehicle testing will be completed to begin dissipating consumer fears. However, fleets will require significant incentives to implement this technology over concerns of upfront costs of $25,000 to $30,000, HOS regulations and a driver shortage remain issues. Select off-highway fleets such as for mining and agriculture are expected to be primary beneficiaries of autonomous technologies

Fleets

Parallel Business Opportunities – The advent of autonomous driving technologies and vehicles will usher new value chain partners into the trucking landscape : IT companies such as Google and Facebook, cybersecurity companies, and algorithm-based developers. OEMs’ lack of IT knowledge will open unprecedented partnerships and business opportunities in the trucking industry. About 15 to 20% of emerging revenue opportunities derived from autonomous trucks will be earned by these companies

Parallel

Business

Opportunities

1

5

4

3

2

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Interested in More Information?

Sandeep Kar

Global Vice President

Automotive & Transportation

Research

+1 (416) 490 7796

[email protected]

Sandeep Kar

Global Vice President

Automotive & Transportation

Research

+1 (416) 490 7796

[email protected]

This promotional sample report by Frost & Sullivan is coordinated with the Automated Truck Conference, hosted by Kisaco Research. The event will take place October 21-22, 2015 at the Steigenberger Hotel in Stuttgart, Germany: www.automatedtruckevent.com

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Global Perspective40+ Offices Monitoring for Opportunities and Challenges

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Industry ConvergenceComprehensive Industry Coverage Sparks Innovation Opportunities

Chemicals, Materials

& Food

Electronics &

Security

Industrial Automation

& Process ControlMinerals & Mining

HealthcareEnvironment & Building

Technologies

Energy & Power

Systems

Automotive

Transportation & Logistics

Aerospace & DefenseMeasurement &

Instrumentation

Information &

Communication Technologies

Consumer

Technologies