stock forecast toolbox - tradespoon
TRANSCRIPT
Stock Forecast Toolbox An institutional-grade tool for the self-directed trader
The Stock Forecast Toolbox is at the core of our research platform. This toolset delivers highly accurate
forecasts that are produced by artificial neural networks which constantly self-learn to apply nuanced
algorithms to voluminous, chaotic market data.
Our platform processes over 100,000 individual stock and index analyses each month- and this is just for
the Stock Forecast Toolbox alone.
We set out to build Tradespoon’s technology with the purpose of putting institutional-grade tools in the
hands of self-directed investors. It is crucial to know how to best interpret the forecasting data and apply
SFT reports to your trade ideas.
Section 1: Reading Prediction Data
1. Accessing the Stock Forecast Toolbox 2. Reading Forecasts 3. Chart 4. Predicted Data
Section 2: Understanding Company Screeners
1. Company Finder 2. Short-Term Forecast 3. Stocks & ETFs with Model Grade A and B 4. Vector Screener
Section 3: Quick Steps to Finding Profitable Trade Ideas
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Section 1: Reading Prediction Data
1. Accessing the Stock Forecast Toolbox
You can find the Stock Forecast Toolbox in Tradespoon’s Quick Navigation menu- located in the
top-right corner of the Tradespoon website. Under the Tools column, click in the Forecast Toolboxes link.
You can also find the Stock Forecast Toolbox in the Dashboard menu, located under the Tools
Membership section. You can find the Dashboard menu by clicking the Launch Dashboard button in the top-right corner of the Tradespoon website.
Search a symbol using the symbol search bar at the top of the user interface, a Quick Review of
the selected symbol will appear.
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The Stock Forecast Toolbox provides three time horizons for forecasting:
Intraday- This forecast generates price predictions for the next hour, segmented into 5
minute intervals. This data is refreshed every 5 minutes.
10 day- This forecast generates price predictions for the next ten days, segmented into
one day intervals. This data is refreshed every evening after market close.
6 month- This forecast generates price predictions for the next six months, segmented
into one month intervals. This data is updated on the first of each month.
You can choose the forecast range from the Range selector next ot the symbol search bar:
It is important to remember that prediction data reflects only the most recently updated market
data. Example:- in a 10-day forecast, the 5th day predictions are relative to the market conditions that were captured in the previous trading session. If you were to generate a forecast again the next day, that 5th day may be slightly different because the model is working with a different set of data. Likewise in an Intraday or Long-term prediction, each time interval refers back to the previous real time interval (the past 5 minutes for Intraday and previous month for Long-term).
2. Reading Forecasts
For each stock/ETF being analyzed, you will be presented with several figures which indicate
accuracy levels and probabilities of the asset reaching estimated price changes. We’ll review these from left to right:
Est. Change- The Estimated Change figure shows the difference between the average of the
previous trading session’s real Open, Close, Low and High prices against the average of the current
trading session’s predicted Open, Close, Low and High prices. This is the same as the current day
Vector figure in a 10-day forecast for a symbol.
Predicted Low/High- The Predicted Low/High numbers are showing you the predicted Low and
High prices for the current time interval for the forecast range you’ve selected. For example- you’ll
see the current day Low/High prices if you’ve selected the Short-term (10-day) forecast, and you’ll
see the current five-minute interval Low/High prices if you’ve selected an Intraday (1 hr) prediction.
Range Trend- This meter is showing the average of all vector figures in your selected forecast
range, and is represented as a colored meter which ranges from Very Bearish, Bearish, Neutral,
Bullish, and Very Bullish. Click here for a video tutorial on Range Trend and Vector
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Prob. Low/High- The Probability Low/High figure will show you the statistical likelihood- based
on backtest results for past predictions- for the chosen stock to close between Tradespoon’s
predicted Low and High prices for the current trading day only.
Prob. Change- This figure reflects the likelihood, based on backtest results for past predictions- of
our model to accurately predict the Est. Change value, or the current day Vector movement for that
chosen stock. This figure is valid only for the current trading day.
Model Grade- The Model Grade indicates a relative ranking of the selected symbol compared to
our entire data universe (~3000 symbols) in terms of accurately predicting Low and High prices for
the current and next trading session. An A grade indicates the top 10%, a B grade is the top 25%,
and a C grade is 50%. Occasionally you will see N/A, which indicates there is not enough market
data to determine accuracy. Typically, our system can assign a Model Grade to symbols with high
volume and high liquidity, which translates to larger sets of market data needed to make a relative
distinction.
Today’s Trend- This is similar to Range Trend, but is based on the current day Vector figure and is
valid only for the current trading session. The meter will reflect Very Bearish, Bearish, Neutral,
Bullish, and Very Bullish day-trade trends reflecting the Vector strength.
You’ll also see several tabs: Snapshot, Fundamental Data, Predicted Data, Chart, Headlines and
Financial News.
Snapshot includes Fundamental Data, Predicted Data, and Chart.
Fundamental Data- A report of fundamental price levels and data for the asset being analyzed, such as
Volume, Market Cap, Bid/Ask prices, Div. & Yield, and so forth.
Predicted Data- This table shows the predicted prices and vector values represented in time intervals
reflecting the chosen forecast range.
Chart- Candlestick charting representing future predicted price movements and both past predicted and real
prices for the asset being analyzed, reflected the chosen forecast range.
Headlines- An automatically updated list of recent media mentions of the asset being analyzed. The list
descends from the most recent media mentions aggregated into a single list.
Financial News- An automatically updated list of current events and media stories which can impact the
markets at large. The list descends from the most recent news stories aggregated into a single list.
3. Candlestick Charts
The candlestick charts represent past and future prediction data reported for a specific time
horizon (intraday, 10-day and 6-month) for the symbol you are analyzing. You can adjust time
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zooms, and drill down to tighter time windows in order to get a detailed look at how our past predicted prices compared to real prices.
Each candlestick represents a price movement for an individual time increment within the
selected time horizon.
To select a specific time horizon either:
A. Use the blue preset Zoom options found in the bottom right corner
B. Type in a Date Range in the bottom left corner
C. Use the Grey Sliding Bar directly beneath the chart to select range
D. Click and Drag a specific area on the chart to manually zoom
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4. Predicted Data
The Predicted Data table will show a breakdown of all open, close, low, and high prices. Intraday
(1 hr) predictions will forecast one hour in intervals of five minutes, Short-term (10 days) predictions will forecast ten days in intervals of one day, and Long-term (6-months) will forecast 6 months in the future in intervals of one month.
Vector Column
Vector figures compare two price averages- the average of the previous time interval real Open,
Close, Low and High prices against the average of predicted time interval Open, Close, Low and
High prices. The column shows expected average price movement "Up or Down", in percentages.
Example: In a 10-day forecast- the average of the previous trading session Open, Close, Low and
High prices is compared the the average of each future predicted day’s Open, Close , Low and High
prices. Every day in a 10-day outlook will refer back to the previous trading session. The 10-day
outlooks are updated every evening.
The same condition applies to the intraday and long-term predictions, where you’re seeing
comparisons of price averages for 5 minute intervals and one month intervals, respectively. The
higher the value of the Vector, the higher its momentum. These figures should not be looked at as
absolutes, but rather a guideline as to how a particular stock or ETF is predicted to move, relative to
the current conditions.
An Accuracy Model Grade of A or B, coupled with a Vector over 1% for the current day and the
entire 10-day outlook in one consistent direction, indicates a very high likelihood that stock will
close under predicted resistance, or above predicted support levels. Based on backtests results,
there is a 75% likelihood of an equity to close between predicted low and high prices for the current
and next trading session if these conditions are met.
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Section 2: Company Screeners
1. Company Finder (Updated Monthly)
The Company Finder is a comprehensive breakdown of annual projected growth rates for stocks
and ETF’s in the S&P 500 Index. The list is segmented into industry sectors, which you can then drill down into smaller categories and individual assets.
Use Case
Step 1- At the Industry Sector Level, look for Annual Return Vectors over 20%. Try to select the
sector with the highest vector, and is most comfortable for you.
Industry Sectors
Step 2- In the Industry Sub-Categories, use the same rule- categories with Annual Return Vectors
over 20%, looking for the highest.
Sub-categories for Industry Sectors
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Step 3- Now select a stock (or several) with the same criteria. Open the Stock Forecast
Toolbox and search these ticker symbols.
Companies in Industry Sub-category
Step 4- Run a 10-day prediction and look for a Vector remaining over 1% for the next ten days.
When possible, enter a position close to the predicted low.
2. Short-term Forecast (Updated daily)
This screener is designed for short-term position holding and provides a daily list of stocks which
rank highly in our prediction algorithms. All symbols listed here are assigned a Model Grade of A or B.
The list is ordered by Vector- which represents the predicted magnitude of change for the next
trading session. The Vector figure gauges the predicted direction of movement for one day, and is determined by the difference between the predicted average price for the most recent trading session and the average of actual prices from previous session.
The Confidence Level column indicates our short-term prediction model’s confidence in
predicting a symbol’s near-term trend in the past 30 days.
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Use Case
Step 1- There are two ideal criteria to look for: a Vector closest to or above 1%, and a Confidence
Level near or above 70%.
Short-term Forecast List (Top)
Short-term Forecast List (Bottom)
Step 2- By selecting a stock, you will be brought to the Stock Forecast Toolbox with that stock
selected for analysis.
Step 3- Generate a 10-day Prediction and look for a Vector trajectory toward and above 1%,
remaining throughout the prediction window.
Step 4- Whether you’re favoring bullish or bearish movement, enter a position at the predicted low
or high when possible.
*An Accuracy Model Grade of A or B, coupled with a consistent Vector over 1%, indicates a very high
likelihood (75%) that stock will close under predicted resistance, or above predicted support levels
for the current and next trading session.
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3. Stocks & ETFs with Model Grade A and B (Updated daily)
This screener is designed for short-term position holding and provides a daily list of stocks which
rank highest in our platform’s Model Grade ranking.
The list is ordered by Vector- which represents the predicted magnitude of change for the next
trading session. The Vector figure gauges the predicted direction of movement for one day, and is determined by the difference between the predicted average price for the most recent trading session and the average of actual prices from previous session.
The Confidence Level column indicates our short-term prediction model’s confidence in
predicting a symbol’s near-term trend in the past 30 days.
Note: Not all symbols in this screener will show a Confidence Level. This only indicates
that our analysis models did not receive enough market data to generate that level for that particular day.
Use Case
Step 1- Identify stocks or ETFs which produce a Vector close to or above 1%. This can be either positive or
negative, depending on the trading strategy you are considering.
Model Grade Screener (Top)
Model Grade Screener (Bottom)
Step 2- By selecting a stock, you will be brought to the Stock Forecast Toolbox with that stock selected for
analysis.
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Step 3- Generate a 10-day Prediction and look for a Vector trajectory toward and above 1%, remaining
throughout the prediction window.
Step 4- Whether you’re favoring bullish or bearish movement, enter a position at the predicted low or high
when possible.
Video Example- Click here to see Vlad explain the Model Grade A & B Screener
4. Vector Screener (Updated monthly)
The Vector Screener analyzes all stocks in S&P 500 and ranks them by the predicted percent of
growth, according Vector figures. This screener analyzes long-term prediction data and presents Vectors for a 3-month time horizon. . This screener is updated on a monthly basis (first of each month).
Use Case
Step 1- Identify a short-list of stocks in the upper tiers of growth vectors- over 20%.
Step 2- Open the Stock Forecast Toolbox and search these ticker symbols.
Step 3a- For short-term trading, run a 10-day prediction and look for a Vector remaining over 1% for the next
ten days. When possible, enter a position close to the predicted low.
*An Accuracy Model Grade of A or B, coupled with a consistent Vector over 1%, indicates a very high
likelihood that stock will close under predicted resistance, or above predicted support levels.
Step 3b- For long-term trading, search the symbol in in the Probability Calculator, and hover over the Trend
Rating. If 3 out of 4 time periods have “higher” predictions 75% of the time on average, stock will spend at
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the price levels higher than on the day the model ran (Model runs each Sunday for long term
predictions). Use 10-day prediction to gage optimal entry point, preferably entering position close to the
predicted low.
Section 3: Quick Steps to Finding Profitable Trade Ideas
For short-term trading (intraday, 1-2 days), please review this guide which covers the Stock Forecast
Toolbox:
Short-term Trading Plan Guide
For 5-20 day positions, you can also review the following guide which covers Stock Forecast Toolbox in
tandem with other Tradespoon tools and services:
Long-term Trading Plan Guide
Tradespoon provides add-on integration for the MetaStock platform.. You can learn more here:
Tradespoon/MetaStock Integration
MetaStock add-on Manual
Please let us know if you have any thoughts or questions by contacting our dedicated support team at
Tradespoon offers private 1-on-1 coaching for self-directed traders who want to build a master trading
plan or improve upon existing strategies. Apply to our 1-on-1 Coaching Program
You can also schedule a quick call with a Product Specialist to review our tools and services at any time.
Schedule a call
To your success,
The Tradespoon Team