Stimulating Businesses

and Jobs in Urbanizing

Communities

Town of Innisfil

Market Saturation Analysis

Presented by: Jamie Cook, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

November 2, 2017

Study Purpose

1

To assess forecast market demand for the

Innisfil Heights Employment Area within the

context of employment land needs for the

broader market area

Assess the relative competitive position of the

Innisfil Heights Employment Area in terms of the

overall cost of development

Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)

Growth Outlook, 2041

2

9. M

4.5 M

12. M

5.7 M

13.5 M

6.3 M

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

Population Employment

Po

pu

lation

/ E

mp

loym

en

t

2011 2031 2041

Source: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

GTHA Core Municipalities

67%

Countryside/905 Fringe

14%

GGH “Outer Ring”

19%

The Share of Population Growth in

the GGH is Changing

3

2001-

2011

2011-

2021

52%

21%

26%

2021-

2031

49%

23%

28%

Simcoe Area Growth Forecast

4

Relative population growth

1.8%

1.7%

1.5%1.4%

1.2% 1.2%1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

0.9%

1.3%1.4%

1.3%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

An

nu

al A

ve

rag

e G

row

th R

ate

(2

011-2

04

1)

Municipality/ region

2011-2041 Population Growth Rates

Source: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

Simcoe Area Growth Forecast (Cont’d)

5

Relative employment growth

1.9%

1.5%1.4%

1.2%

1.1%1.0%

0.9% 0.9%

0.7% 0.7%

1.1%

1.3%1.1%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

An

nu

al A

ve

rage

Gro

wth

Ra

te (

20

11

-20

41

)

Municipality/region

2011-2041 Employment Growth Rates

Source: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

How is Recent Employment Growth

Tracking to Growth Plan Forecast?

6

Estimated Employment Growth, 2011-2016

Recent Trends Growth Plan

101,000 57,000

148,000 213,000

76,000 77,000

325,000 347,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Watson & Associates 2016 Employment Growth (1) Technical Report to the Growth Plan, 2013 (2)

Tota

l Em

plo

ymen

t Gro

wth

City of Toronto GTHA (less Toronto) GGH Outer Ring

1. Derived from Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. employment data, 2011 & 2016

2. Technical Report Addendum to the Growth Plan, June 2013 Ontario Ministry of Infrastructure

Planning for the New Economy

Being competitive in today’s “new economy”

requires a different look at how we plan and develop

our Employment Areas

The evolving economy is also impacting the factors

that make Employment Areas successful (i.e.

access to labour, transit, amenities, post-secondary

institutions)

7

Light Industrial Areas and

Business Parks

8

.

Freight Villages/Enterprise Zones

Increasing trend towards greater integration of intermodal

terminals and logistics hubs

Lands surrounding the intermodal facility often

accommodate a range of transportation/logistics,

warehousing, distribution centers, manufacturing, office

and ancillary uses

9

Research Parks and Innovation Districts

Concept fosters entrepreneurialism, innovation, research/

training, and investment through connectivity and social

interaction through the design of buildings, public spaces and

supporting amenities

Innovation districts are often comprised of a mix of land uses,

including institutional (i.e. universities and hospitals),

residential, retail, office and R&D facilities connected with

start-ups, business incubators and accelerators

10

Employment Land Needs, 2031

11

Broader Regional Market Area

Summary of Forecast Employment Lands Absorption, 2016 to 2031

206

399

276

333

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Historical, 2010-2015 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031

An

nu

al L

an

d A

bso

rptio

n (

ha

)

Peel Region Highway 400 Corridor

North/Central Highway 404 Corridor South/Central Simcoe Area

Employment Land Needs, 2031 (Cont’d)

12

Broader Regional Market Area

(Excluding Town of Innisfil)

Summary of Forecast Employment Land Needs, 2016 to 2031

Employment

Land NeedsNet ha

1,933

1,996

-64

5,108

5,042

65

Broader Regional Market Area

(Excluding Town of Innisfil)

2016 Designated Vacant Employment Land Supply

2016-2031 Forecast Employment Land AbsorptionDesignated

(Serviceable)

2016 "Shovel-ready" Vacant Employment Land Supply

2016-2021 Forecast Employment Land Absorption

2021 Employment Land Surplus/(Shortfall)

"Shovel-ready"

H:\Innisfil\Market Saturation Study\Growth Forecasts\[Growth Forecast Notes- Revised September 14 2016.xlsx]EMp Land total

2031 Employment Land Surplus/(Shortfall)

Employment Lands – A Case for

Municipal Servicing in Innisfil

13

The majority of the Employment Areas surveyed

in the broader regional market area offer full

municipal servicing

Employment Areas with no or partial servicing

within the broader market area have

experienced relatively low absorption due to the

limited ability to attract a wide range of users,

including prestige tenants. In addition, they

typically have very low employment densities

Measuring Competitiveness

14

Competitiveness

Factors

· Regulatory environment

· Dollar exchange rate

· Corporate taxation

· Political stability

· Geographic Attributes

· Labour costs (wage rates, benefits)

· Local industry clusters

· Access to markets

· Access to Regional labour force pool

· Quality of infrastructure and distribution

networks

· Utility costs (electricity, heating, water)

· Locational attributes

· Major infrastructure access (major highways,

intermodal facilities, airports)

· Local labour force

· Development opportunities

· Development costs (land prices, off-site levies)

· Property taxes

· Market rents and availability of building

space

· Quality of life

· Local business environment

· Availability of developable industrial and

commercial lands

· Investment readiness of Employment Areas

· Quality and suitability of building space

· Access/circulation

· Development standard

National/Provincial Level Regional Level

Community Level Site Level

Innisfil’s Competitive Advantage –

Employment Lands

Central location within the Simcoe Area

Direct access to Highway 400

Sufficient available land supply for large-scale

industrial development

Proximity to recreational amenities/quality of life

Proposed GO train station

Competitive development costs

15

What Types of Jobs are Anticipated

in Innisfil Heights?

Industrial Cluster Size and Growth Matrix –

Town of Innisfil Relative to GGH

16

Accommodation and food services

Manufacturing

Finance and insurance

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Information and cultural industries

Educational services

Professional, scientific and

technical services

ConstructionReal estate and rental and

leasing

Wholesale trade

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Public administration

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting

Other services (except public administration)

Admin. and support, waste mgt and

remediation services

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Lo

cati

on

Qu

oti

en

t to

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe A

rea

Average Annual Employment Growth (2006-2015)

Note: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction, Management of Companies and Utilities are not displayed as they each have an employment base less than 60 in the Town of Innisfil. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Data source: Location quotients based on comparison to Greater Golden Horeshoe Area derived from EMSI OMARFA Analyst, 2006-2015.

Town of Innisfil Employment Growth

The Town of Innisfil is forecast to experience

relatively balanced employment growth by major

sectorTown of Innisfil

Employment Growth Increment by Major Sector, 2016 to 2031

17

Institutional13%

No Fixed Place of Work

14%

Work at Home14%

Industrial23%

Commercial/ Population

Related36%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Employment Growth and

Employment Land Absorption

The Town’s current employment estimate of 2,700

jobs for Innisfil Heights remains appropriate in

accordance with the Town’s approved Official Plan

Town of Innisfil

Employment Land Absorption, 2016 to 2031

18

H:\Innisfil\Market Saturation Study\Growth Forecasts\[Innisfil Employment September 12 2016.xlsm]Employment Land Absorp- intensi

5

10

9

0 0 0 0

2

3

1 2

3 3

4 44.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

5 5 54.5

4 4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

Hecta

res A

bsorb

ed

Land Area Absorbed Forecast 10 Year Average (2006-2015) Forecast Average, 2016-2031

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

4 ha

3 ha

Regional Market Capture

19

Share of Innisfil and South/Central Employment Absorption,

2010 to 2031

5.5%

13.3% 13.3%

18.5%

15.0%

0.5%

0.8% 1.7%

1.4%

1.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Historical, 2010 -2015

2016 - 2021 2021 - 2026 2026 - 2031 2016 -2031

Sh

are

of L

an

d A

bso

rbed

in t

he B

road

er

Reg

ion

al M

ark

et A

rea

South Central Simcoe/Barrie/Bradford West Gwillimbury, excluding Innisfil Town of Innisfil

6%

14%15%

20%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

16%

Conclusions

20

A key driver of Innisfil’s future economic

potential is its geographic location within the

GGH

Our analysis suggests there is an opportunity for

the Town of Innisfil to capture a small but

growing share of forecast regional market

demand across a broad range of employment

sectors

Conclusions (Cont’d)

The Innisfil Heights Employment Area is an

important area to the Town, representing almost

all of Innisfil’s Employment Area land base

This area is forecast to accommodate

approximately 40% of the Town’s employment

growth over the 2016 to 2031 planning period

assuming the extension of full municipal services

to the Innisfil Heights Employment Area

21

Conclusions (Cont’d)

The macro-economic analysis, prepared as part

of our market saturation analysis study, supports

a prestige business park development which is

envisioned in the Town’s Official Plan for the

Innisfil Heights Employment Area

22