steve heminger executive director, mtc western cog conference september 20, 2007
TRANSCRIPT
Steve HemingerExecutive Director, MTC
Western COG Conference
September 20, 2007
CommissionersCommissionersMary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson
Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice Chair
Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation
Maria Cino Deputy Secretary of Transportation
Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University
Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of New York
Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot
Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking Association
Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad
Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company
Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation
Statutory MandateStatutory Mandate
• Study current condition and future needs of surface transportation system
• Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax
• Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons
• Report to Congress by January 1,2008
Field HearingsField Hearings
• September 20-21, 2006 Dallas, TX
• November 15–16, 2006 New York, NYMemphis, TN
• February 21–22, 2007 Los Angeles, CAAtlanta, GA
• March 19, 2007 Washington, DC
• April 18–19, 2007 Chicago, ILMinneapolis, MN
FreightFreight
China was 33% of US imports in 2000 and will be 50% by
2010
China was 33% of US imports in 2000 and will be 50% by
2010
1,4371,437
6,1656,165
(TEUs in thousands)
20202020
20042004
HoustonHouston
13,10113,101
LA/LBLA/LB1,0101,0102,15
22,152
MiamiMiami
2,0432,0433,3823,382
OaklandOakland
4,4784,478
15,83515,835
NY/NJNY/NJ
1,8091,809
5,5665,566
VirginiaVirginia
1,8601,860
6,6396,639
CharlestonCharleston
1,6621,662
9,4209,420
SavannahSavannah
1,7981,7984,3964,396
TacomaTacoma
1,7761,776 2,5572,557
SeattleSeattle
59,42059,420
Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade
Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020
Source: U.S. DOTv
Truck Rail Water Air Total
More trade means more domesticfreight movements…
More trade means more domesticfreight movements…
West region +65%
South region +71%
Central
region +71%
Northeast region +58%
U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020
U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020
20202020
20002000
% change 2000-2020% change 2000-2020
62% 44% 39% 181% 57%
10,70010,700
17,29617,296
2,0092,009
2,8912,891
1,0541,054
1,4701,470
13,77213,772
21,68221,682
992525
(tons in millions)
Source: U.S. DOT
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4%1%
9%
3% 2% 0%
7%3% 1%
40%
74%
67%
16%
40%
6%<1%<1%
6%2%
13%
3%
Tons Value Ton-Miles
Perc
en
t
s
TruckRailWaterAirPipeline
Multiple ModesOther/Unknown Modes
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b.
Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value
commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned
Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads
Rail Network TodayRail Network TodayToday’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a
core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design
Metro MobilityMetro Mobility
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
Top Ten Congested Metro Areas
Top Ten Congested Metro Areas
Source: U.S. Census
Metro AreaAnnual Delay per Traveler
(hours)
Travel Time Index
Wasted Fuel per Traveler
(gallons)
1. Los Angeles 72 1.50 57
2. San Francisco/ Oakland
60 1.41 47
3. Washington DC 60 1.37 43
4. Atlanta 60 1.34 44
5. Dallas 58 1.35 40
6. San Diego 57 1.40 44
7. Houston 56 1.36 42
8. San Jose 54 1.34 38
9. Orlando 54 1.30 35
10. Detroit 54 1.29 35
Source: America 2050
Top Dozen Metro AreasTop Dozen Metro Areas
Source: U.S. Census
Metros Are Engines of Economic Growth
Metros Are Engines of Economic Growth
• Combined GDP of top dozen metro areas exceeds combined economic output of 35 states
• New York metro area ranks 10th in the world, with a larger economy than India, South Korea or Mexico
• Los Angeles and Chicago metro areas rank 18th and 19th — each larger than Belgium, Sweden or Taiwan
Source: U.S. Conference of Mayors
Metros Capture Huge Market Share
Metros Capture Huge Market Share
10 Megaregions
Top Dozen Metro Areas
1 Share of U.S. Population 68% 33%
2 Share of Traffic Congestion
92% 70%
3 Share of GDP 78% 39%
4 Share of Transit Ridership
93% 76%
5 Share of Population Exposure to Criteria Pollutants
94% 64%
Sources: U.S. Census, Texas Transportation Institute, U.S. Conference of Mayors, EPA
U.S. Population Change, 2000 –2050
U.S. Population Change, 2000 –2050
Sour
ce: W
oods
& P
oole
200
2; U
nive
rsity
of
Penn
sylv
ania
Sch
ool o
f D
esig
n
Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)
Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)
Sources: Environmental Protection Agency; Energy Information Administration
Ho
rsep
ow
er
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1997 19961995
1994 19931992 1991
1990 19891988
19871986
19851984
19831982
1981
1998
2004
20032002
20012000
1999
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
00 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Miles per Gallon
59 percent more energy performance
52 percentmore output
U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles
U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles
1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG
International Fuel Economy Comparison
International Fuel Economy Comparison
Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles
Sou
rce:
UC
Berk
ele
y
Source: U.S DOE
World and U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Compared
World and U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Compared
1
World U.S.14% Transportation 28%17% Industrial 30%22% Power Stations NA3% Waste Disposal/Treatment NA
10% Land Use & Biomass Burning
NA
10% Residential & Commercial 34%11% Fossil Fuel Production NA13% Agricultural Byproducts 8%
Sources: US DOE and EPA
Is the Public Ready for Change?
Is the Public Ready for Change?
Source: The New York Times / CBS News Poll, April 2007
SafetySafety
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities
Per 100 Million VMT
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities
Per 100 Million VMT
Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
U.S. Traffic Deaths Far Exceed Casualties of War
U.S. Traffic Deaths Far Exceed Casualties of War
Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
What’s Broken?What’s Broken?
Environmental Impact StatementEnvironmental Impact StatementProcessing Time (FY 1998–2006)
Source: FHWA
Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process
Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process
Source: Holland & Knight
Street and Highway Construction Costs Have Increased Dramatically
Over the Past Few Years
Street and Highway Construction Costs Have Increased Dramatically
Over the Past Few Years
Source: AGC
FinanceFinance
Highway Account Cash Balance
Highway Account Cash Balance
Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections
Mass Transit Account Cash BalanceMass Transit Account Cash Balance
Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections
Year
600
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015)
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015)
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Year-
of-
Expendit
ure
Dolla
rs (
in B
illio
ns)
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015)
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015) Revenue
Cost toMaintain
Cost toImprove
National Funding GapNational Funding Gap
Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce
State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum
Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax
State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum
Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax
State
Cents per Gallon
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NY CT MI NV FL RI IN OH ME WV ID OR SD MD ND MN IA NH DC TX VI MS NM OK NJ AK
CA IL WI PA HI WA NC MT NE GA KS UT MA DE CO AR TN AL LA VT AZ KY MO SC WY
Excise MFT
Additional MFT
Source: American Petroleum Institute
As of April 2006
Recent Public Private PartnershipsRecent Public Private Partnerships
Source: Public Works Financing
Project Location
Intermodal Projects in Green
Highway Projects in Blue
Transit Projects in Yellow
Reno RailCorridor
SR 125Toll Road
-Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line
Chicago SkywayAsset Sale
Dulles Greenway
Miami Intermodal Center
Central TexasTurnpike
PocahontasParkway
Camden Trenton Light Rail Line
San Joaquin HillsToll Road
Foothill EasternToll Road
Alameda Corridor
-Trans TexasCorridor
Denver E-470NorthwestParkway
NM 44 (US 550)
Southern Connector
Hiawatha Light Rail Line
Jamaica JFK Airtrain
Tacoma NarrowsBridge
Osceola Parkway
Las Vegas Monorail
I-15 Reconstruction
AZ-17
Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale
CREATE
“Our unity as a nation is sustained by
free communication of thought and
by easy transportation of people
and goods... Together the unifying
forces of our communication and
transportation systems are dynamic
elements in the very name we bear
— United States. Without them, we
would be a mere alliance of many
separate parts.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1955
For More Information:
www.transportationfortomorrow.org
For More Information:
www.transportationfortomorrow.org