stephen brown, nyu william goetzmann, yale bing liang, u mass christopher schwarz, uc irvine
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Hedge Fund Due Diligence
Stephen Brown, NYU William Goetzmann, Yale Bing Liang, U Mass Christopher Schwarz, UC Irvine
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Previous Work: Lessons From Hedge Fund RegistrationBrown Goetzmann Liang and Schwarz
Is SEC registration useful?
What correlates to operational risk?
Can we predict operational event?
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SEC Registration Form ADV
Form ADV Item 11: legal and regulatory problems.
A “Problem” fund = a fund whose management company answered ‘Yes’ to ANY question on Item 11 of Form ADV. Past Suspension Past Fine Other Legal or Regulatory issue
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Problem vs. Non-Problem Funds
1814
358
10295
1526
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Hedge Funds All Advisers
ProblemNon-Problem
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Problems and External Conflicting Relationships
"Problem" Funds "Non-Problem" Funds
No. Funds % Yes No. Funds % Yes
Broker/Dealer 368 73.10 1929 23.70
Investment Comp 368 50.30 1929 15.80
Investment Adviser 368 73.90 1929 41.60
Commodities Broker 368 53.50 1929 20.70
Bank 368 40.50 1929 9.80
Insurance 368 39.90 1929 8.30
Sponsor of LLP 368 56.80 1929 21.50
**, * significant at one and five percent respectively Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration, Stephen Brown, William Goetzmann, Bing Laing, Christopher Schwartz, Not for reproduction or citation or quotation without authors’ permission
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Problems and Internal Conflicts
"Problem" Funds"Non-Problem" Funds
No. Funds % YesNo.
Funds % Yes
Buy Sell Your Own 368 30.7 1929 8.3
Buy Sell Yourself Clients 368 84.8 1929 69.3
Recommend Sec You Own [Rec] 368 75.5 1929 50.4
Agency Cross Trans 368 30.7 1929 2.3
Rec Underwriter 368 69 1929 47
Rec Sales Interest 368 22.6 1929 15.7
Rec Brokers 368 46.7 1929 38
Other Research 368 81 1929 70.5
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Conflict of Interest and Future Performance
Regression t-values. Blue = problem fund
**, * significant at one and five percent respectively From Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration, Stephen Brown, William Goetzmann, Bing Laing, Christopher Schwartz, Draft: October 11, 2007. Not for reproduction or citation or quotation without authors’ permission
4.1
7
1.3
1
-1.2
1
1.8
0.4
4
-0.2
5
-2.5
3
0.5
2
-1.5
6
4.1
9
3.5
7
-4.7
3
2.1
4
3.3
8
-1.5
6
0.5
8
-1.1
8
-2.1
5
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Log(Assets) Fund Age(Years)
Std Dev Onshore Incentive Fee High WaterMark
Relationship DirectDomestic
Percent own75%
t-value
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Predicting Problems
We need PAST ADV problems Difficult to get from SEC
Instead, we can use observables “Rotation” of Lipper-TASS variables
and “Rotation” of ADV characteristics that are most highly correlated.
Canonical correlation. Use this model with historical data.
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The ω-Score:
A propensity score for “problem” Uses TASS data (widely available) As good as we can do without a
research and due diligence team A linear factor model Does it predict fund disappearance? Back-test
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Operational Risk Measure Predicting Returns
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Co
effi
cie
nt
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
t-va
lue
coefficient (left axis)
t-value (rigth axis)
coefficient average value
t-value average value
From Estimating Operational Risk For Hedge Funds, The Ω-Score, Stephen Brown, William Goetzmann, Bing Laing, Christopher Schwarz. Not for reproduction or citation or quotation without authors’ permission.
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How About Fund Failure?
Is the half-life of the fund related to the omega score?
Other factors – age.
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Operational risk and the half life of USD funds
0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2
0.70.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
90 months
80
70
60
50
40
Half Life
Fin
an
cia
l ri
sk (p
rior
mon
thly
)
Operational Risk -Score
0.8
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Due Diligence
Market alternative to regulation Not all funds register Due diligence before investing
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Current Study: Private Sector Data
445 DD funds over past decade DD decision endogenous
Past returns. Different thresholds for problems based
on returns. Focus on honesty
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Why DD gets Done: LogitDatabase Matches
All Funds
Coef Chi Sq Coef Chi Sq
Log Assets 0.363 91.54** 0.324 67.76**Management Fee 0.269 5.95* 0.402 18.31**Incentive Fee 0.047 14.24** 0.056 22.81**High Water Mark 0.643 12.64** 0.794 22.20**Leveraged 0.036 0.08 -0.073 0.40Red Notice Period 0.007 11.78** 0.009 25.87**Lockup Period -
0.03511.51** -0.037 16.20**
Return Mean 0.850 146.21** 0.865 149.68**Return Std. Dev. -
0.45987.88** -0.480 97.58**
Ret Autocorrelation
0.257 0.82 -0.099 0.16
Year Dummies Y YStyle Dummies Y YClustered by Fund Y YFund Year Observations
26,127
26,219
Number of Funds 9,001 9,093
R-Squared 0.25
0.25
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Returns Before and After DD
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Flows Before and After DD
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Conditional Flow Response
DD Funds
Non-DD Matched Funds
Difference p-value
Flows 1.491 0.641 0.850 0.00Problem Flows 1.675 0.736 0.939 0.00Non-Pro Flows 1.292 0.538 0.754 0.00
Appraisal ratio 0.216 0.133 0.083 0.26Problem A ratio 0.249 0.184 0.065 0.62
Non-Pro A ratio 0.184 0.085 0.099 0.16
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Problem Fund ProbitModel 1 Model 2
coefficient
Chi-sq coefficient
Chi-sq
Return mean 0.016 0.02 -0.080 0.33
Return Std. Dev.
0.073 1.16 0.110 1.97
Return Autocorr
0.186 0.34 -0.019 0.00
Log(assets) 0.022 0.20 0.015 0.08
Fund age 0.004 0.02 0.027 0.59
Management fee
-0.222 2.06 -0.175 0.84
Incentive fee -0.012 0.46 -0.014 0.41
Lockup period -0.005 0.15 0.003 0.05
Notice period 0.007 0.11 -0.001 0.29
Non-Verification
0.505 12.09** 0.369 4.66*
Signature 0.115 0.45 0.032 0.03
Self-Pricing -0.253 6.56* -0.298 5.77*
Big 4 auditor -0.444 8.31** -0.470 6.53*
# Ind Board -0.274 1.14
Lambda 0.247 0.92 0.045 0.02
Style Dummies Y Y
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Misrepresentation ProbitModel 1 Model 2
coefficient Chi-sq coefficient Chi-sq
Return mean -0.007 0.00 -0.073 0.21
Return Std. Dev. -0.008 0.01 0.036 0.15
Return Autocorr 0.279 0.63 0.175 0.17
Log(assets) -0.102 3.14 -0.102 2.42
Fund age 0.035 1.19 0.048 1.25
Management fee 0.131 0.58 0.025 0.41
Incentive fee -0.008 0.17 -0.017 0.13
Lockup period 0.009 0.50 0.003 0.03
Notice period -0.002 0.00 -0.005 1.21
Inconsistency 0.295 2.70 0.390 3.26
Signature IQ -0.027 0.02 -0.045 0.04
Pricing -0.065 0.37 -0.049 0.12
Big 4 auditor -0.388 5.37* -0.544 6.94**
# Ind Board 0.232 0.59
Lambda -0.244 0.63 -0.397 1.20
Style Dummies Y Y
Num Obs. 380 287
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Fund Flows and Operational Risk
All Funds Non-Problem Funds Problem Funds
Coeff. t-value Coeff. t-value Coeff. t-value
Lawsuit 0.714 1.67
Regulatory 0.461 0.88
Misrepresentation 0.468 1.02
Return Mean -0.547 -1.34 -0.062 -0.11 -1.628 -2.72**
Return Std. Dev. 0.073 0.36 -0.072 -0.27 0.377 1.27
Return Autocorr 1.118 1.32 0.517 0.46 0.689 0.56
Log(assets) -0.911 -4.81** -0.533 -2.25* -1.604 -5.39**
Fund age -0.120 -1.38 -0.220 -1.87 0.081 0.66
Management fee 0.165 0.39 0.432 0.70 0.649 1.13
Incentive fee 0.013 0.21 0.009 0.13 0.070 0.62
Lockup period 0.026 0.81 0.061 1.49 0.040 0.86
Notice period 0.000 0.00 0.003 0.28 -0.005 -0.47
Non Verification -0.556 -1.24 -0.643 -1.14 -0.311 -0.46
Signature IQ 0.480 0.92 -0.753 -1.09 1.608 2.12*
Pricing 0.196 0.75 0.388 1.07 -0.197 -0.54
Big 4 auditor 0.387 0.87 0.814 1.28 -0.396 -0.64
Lambda -1.125 -1.33 -0.050 -0.05 -2.926 -2.38*
Style Dummies Y Y Y
Adjusted R-squared 0.17 0.07 0.33
Num Obs. 197 95 102
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Performance and Operational Risk
All Funds Non-Problem Funds Problem Funds
Coeff. t-value Coeff. t-value Coeff. t-value
Lawsuit -0.115 -0.68
Misrepresentation 0.397 2.18*
Regulatory -0.141 -0.69
Log(assets) -0.026 -0.43 -0.079 -1.46 0.009 0.07
Fund age -0.069 -2.06* -0.020 -0.69 -0.110 -1.77
Autocorrelation -0.081 -0.24 0.533 1.81 -0.325 -0.52
Management fee -0.253 -1.56 -0.272 -1.82 0.000 0.00
Incentive fee 0.038 2.01* 0.002 0.16 0.113 2.49*
Lockup period -0.013 -1.11 -0.019 -1.89 0.001 0.03
Notice period 0.009 3.26* 0.003 1.36 0.012 2.58*
Inconsistency -0.005 -0.29 0.104 0.72 -0.154 -0.49
Pricing -0.284 -2.82* 0.040 0.44 -0.606 -3.45**
Signature IQ -0.066 -0.04 0.003 0.02 0.072 0.21
Big 4 auditor -0.196 -1.14 -0.265 -1.60 -0.340 -1.16
Lambda 0.507 2.55* -0.053 -0.31 0.933 2.63*
Style Dummies Y Y Y
Adjusted R-squared 0.12 0.09 0.15
Num Obs. 266 138 128
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Conclusion
Hedge fund opacity demands trust Problem funds have:
Verification problems Minor auditors More likely to self-price