Statistics on Same-sex Couple Households from 2010 Census

Martin O’ConnellUS Census Bureau

Presentation to The Council of Professional Associations

on Federal Statistics December 2, 2011

Topics

• Comparisons of 2010 Census estimates of same-sex couples with recent ACS data

• Problems in estimating numbers of same-sex couple households

• How we developed set of “Preferred estimates” to account for data capture problems uncovered in the 2010 Census

• Comparison of original counts from Summary File 1 with the Preferred Estimates

Figure 1. Same-sex Couple Households: Census 2000 and 2010 Census Counts and Preferred Estimates

and ACS Estimates, 2005-2010

Num

bers

of s

ame-

sex

hous

ehol

ds

(in

thou

sand

s)

C-Census A-American Community Survey

ACS form changed2007-2008

Original counts

Preferredestimates

Figure 2. Percent of All Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households, by State:

2010 Census and 2010 ACS EstimatesPercent

Note: States ordered from highest to lowest based on 2010 Census percentages.

Figure 3. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households by Form Type:

2010 Census and ACS 2010 EstimatesPe

rcen

t re

porti

ng S

ame-

sex

hou

seho

lds

•NRFU forms for 2010 Census and CATI/CAPI forms for ACS 2010.

Figure 4. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households by Form Type: 2010 Census

Perc

ent

repo

rting

sam

e-se

x c

oupl

e h

ouse

hold

s

Note: States ordered from highest to lowest based on 2010 Census percentages for all forms.

Figure 5. Matrix-Based Format: Pre-2008 ACS Mail and 2010 Census NRFU Form

Figure 6. Vertical Person-Based Format: ACS 2008+ and 2010 Census Mail Forms

How to Test Quality of Reporting Sex?

• Compare reported sex with likelihood of person’s name being the same sex.

• Names Index=Number of times per 1,000 that name reported was male.– Higher the index, more likely that person is male– Names like John or Thomas have high index– Names like Elizabeth or Virginia have a low index– Names like Tracy or Pat may have an uncertain/mid range index (1-2%)

• Names data base built during processing for that state.• Names with no index value (about 15%) are those with:

– Less than 10 occurrences– First name is left blank or has only one character– No one with that name reported their sex

How the Names Index Works

• Persons with index value 0-50 were likely to be female.• Persons with index values of 950-1000 were likely to be male.• Sharp drops in cell counts found in adjacent 50 point cells. • Couples who had either a female partner with a name at the

highest index value or male partner with a name at the lowest index value were then considered to have incorrectly marked the sex item on the question.

• They were removed from the population of same-sex couples and a series of “preferred estimates” were produced for each state.

Illustrative Example: First Name Indices for Male-Male Households in Texas, 2010 Census

(Numbers of reported partners)

HouseholderNameIndex

0-50 51-100

101-499

500-899 900-949 950-1000

NA Total

0-50 35 4 36 90 54 1869 105 2,193

51-100 13 0 2 7 1 77 6 106

101-499 125 8 51 34 11 361 32 622

500-899 302 22 119 132 15 621 88 1,299

900-949 178 12 24 27 10 339 28 618

950-1000 6,265 261 699 786 411 14,439 1,184 24,045

NA 275 24 58 53 32 498 1,942 2,880

Total 7,193 331 987 1129 534 18,204 3,385 31,763

Partner Name Index

Figure 7. Percentage of Same-sex Couples with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting, by Form Type: 2010 Census

Perc

ent

with

inco

nsis

tent

nam

es

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

OR

KS

WY

IA

CO

SD

NE

MN

UT IL

FL

ND

OK

WA

GA

LA

AR

WI

MO

IN

PA

AL

NY

NC

MS

TN

VAKY

MI

OH

SC

ME

WVMD

NH

NJ

VT

MA CT

DE

RI

Percent of Same-sex Couples with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting

6.3% - 25.8%

25.9% - 28.2%

28.3% - 38.1%

38.2% - 49.9%

Map 4. Percent of Same-sex Couples with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting: Census 2010

US Average: 28.3%

AK

HI

DC

Map 1. Percent of Same-sex Couples with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting: 2010 Census

Figure 8. Plot of Percent of Same-sex Couple Households Using NRFU Forms vs. Percent with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting,

by State: 2010 Census

Figure 9. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple Households by Household Type:

2010 Census and 2010 ACS EstimatesPe

rcen

t re

porti

ng s

ame-

sex

hou

seho

lds

Summary

• Preferred 2010 Census estimates of same-sex couple households closer to 2010 ACS estimates.– Number in 2010 Census declines from 902,000 to 646,000.

• Declines occur for both same-sex unmarried partner and spousal households.– For unmarried partners 2010 preferred estimates still about 75,000

higher than the 2010 ACS. Possible Census campaign to encourage same-sex household reporting accounts for some differences.

• Spousal household estimate most improved.– Census 2010 preferred estimate of 132,000 compared with 152,000

from the 2010 ACS. Formerly Census count of 349,000.– Very few actual spousal households in US (<50,000) so names

adjustment effect is greater for spouses than unmarried partners.

END OF PRESENTATION

TX

CA

MT

AZ

ID

NV

NM

OR

KS

WY

IA

CO

SD

NE

MN

UT IL

FL

ND

OK

WA

GA

LA

AR

WI

MO

IN

PA

AL

NY

NC

MS

TN

VAKY

MI

OH

SC

ME

WVMD

NH

NJ

VT

MA CT

DE

RI

Percent of Same-sex HouseholdsReporting with NRFU Forms

12.0% - 23.1%

23.2% - 27.4%

27.3% - 31.2%

31.3% - 45.1%

Map 3b. Percent of Same-sex Households Reporting with NRFU Forms: Census 2010

US Average: 27.3%

AK

HI

DC

Map 2. Percent of Same-sex Households Reportingwith NRFU Forms: 2010 Census