Statistics and forecastThis is quarterly edition of statistics and forecasts for the Wind Power Market, covering data from

turbine manufacturers and wind power developers acting on the Swedish market (estimated

coverage is 100 percent respectively 95 percent of the total Swedish market)

Q4 2019

Svensk Vindenergi – Swedish Wind Energy Association, SWEA

2020-02-04

• The statistics are based on the order books of the turbine manufacturers and

project portfolios of the wind power developers presented at aggregated level

• The forecast consists of three future scenarios (low, base, high). They are based

on assumptions regarding which projects will be realized - considering today’s

market situation and the future’s.

• Low case: Only projects where turbine contracts (firm and unconditional) have been signed

will be realized. In this scenario no further investment decisions are made, hence this

scenario defines the lower limit of wind power growth in Sweden.

• Base case: Projects with signed turbine contracts, approximately 30 percent of permitted

projects and 15 percent of projects under permission process will be realized. This is the

most realistic scenario and is the official forecast.

• High case: Projects with signed turbine contracts, around 60 percent of permitted projects

and 30 percent of projects under permission process will be realized. This scenario is more

optimistic and sets the ceiling for growth of wind power in Sweden.

The statistics and forecast

Total by the end of 2018

Turbines: 3 652

Capacity: 7 395 MW

Actual production: 16,4 TWh *

Annual production (estimated): 19,5 TWh **

Added capacity in 20191st quarter: 136,2 MW

2nd quarter: 140,8 MW

3rd quarter: 519,0 MW

4th quarter: 792,4 MW

Total: 1588,4 MW

Total by the end of 2019 Turbines: 4 099

Capacity: 8 984 MW

Actual production: 19,5 TWh *

Annual production (estimated): 24,7 TWh **

Last year

* Actual production is the real production and

depends on wind conditions and when

installations are made during the year.

** Estimated annual production is the annual

production the turbines are expected to

produce when in operation during a whole year

with normal wind condittions.

Total by the end of 2019

Turbines: 4 099

Capacity: 8 984 MW

Actual production: 19,5 TWh *

Annual production (estimated): 24,7 TWh **

Added capacity in 2020 (forecast)1st quarter: 363,6 MW

2nd quarter: 242,9 MW

3rd quarter: 526,5 MW

4th quarter: 765,9 MW

Total: 1898,9 MW

Total by the end of 2020 (forecast)Turbines: 4 549

Capacity: 10 883 MW

Actual production: 26,7 TWh *

Annual production (estimated): 30,9 TWh **

Installations in 2020

* Actual production is the real production and

depends on wind conditions and when

installations are made during the year.

** Estimated annual production is the annual

production the turbines are expected to

produce when in operation during a whole year

with normal wind condittions.

Project portfolio, status by 2019-12-31

** Estimations

**

**

*

* Firm and unconditional turbine order based on investment decisions

( +230 )

( +792 )

( -132 )

( -311 )

Quarterly changeIn operation Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 4 020 79 4 099

Capacity (MW) 8 794 190 8 984

Under construction Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 971 971

Capacity (MW) 4 271 4 271

Permitted Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 1 546 418 1 964

Capacity (MW) 6 257 1 925 8 182

In permission process Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 1 361 150 1 511

Capacity (MW) 5 964 1 750 7 714

In operation

Permitted

In permitting process

Source: Vindbrukskollen.se

Geographical spread

Rejected

Project status

New turbine contracts (firm and binding)

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

275

106

248

50

221115

189

25 51 49 63160

66

273

2

635

25

1429

220

413403

675

1225

114

686

481

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Q3 2

01

3

Q4 2

01

3

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4

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Q3 2

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Q4 2

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4

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Q2 2

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Q3 2

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Q4 2

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Q1 2

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6

Q2 2

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Q3 2

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Q4 2

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Q1 2

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7

Q2 2

01

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Q3 2

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Q4 2

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Q1 2

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8

Q2 2

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Q3 2

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Q4 2

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Q1 2

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Q2 2

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Q3 2

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Q4 2

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9

New turbine contracts (capacity) Mean value last 12 month

MW

Order books

Time plan according to turbine manufacturers for wind power installations

during year (MW) *

2019 2020

Q1

2020

Q2

2020

Q3

2020

Q4

2020

(Tot)

2021 2022 2023

1588 364 243 527 766 1899 2158 193 23

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

Status as of 2019-12-31

MW

Installed capacity by price area 2023-12-31 (forecast)

1615

3202

2603

1552

1214

2634

334

90

827

640

209

221

177

58

67

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4

Permission process

Permitted

Under construction

In operation

Wind power production 2020 (forecast)

TWh

31/12-19 31/3 30/6 30/9 31/12-20

Actual and forecast

19,5 19,521,6

24,0

26,7

6,4

12,5

18,9

26,7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Production last 52 weeks

Cumulative production

Wind power production – different scenarios

TWh

Actual and forecast

As of 31/12

Increased uncertainty

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

High case

Base case

Low case

Base caseThis scenario is the most realistic and official forecast of Svensk Vindenergi

Actual and forecast

As of 31/12

Increased uncertainty

61007160

990011450

1660015500

1760016400

19500

26664

33095

39474

43945

2899 3743 43825425 6029,2 6495 6691 7395

898410883

1304014407

15672

2039 2403 2663 3048 3233 3378 3437 3652 4099 4549 5051 5361 5642

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Annualproduction [GWh]

Cumulativecapacity [MW]

Cumulativeinstalled windturbines

Assumptions

Part of wind power project portfolio capacity expected to be realized within

given time frame depending on scenario (approximate figures)

Status High Base ** Low

Under construction 100 % 100 % 95 %

Permitted * 60 % 30 % 0 %

In permission process * 30 % 15 % 0 %

Only onshore wind power are expected to be built.

The base case reflects a possible scenario based on an assessment of current and future market conditions.

*

**

Follow up

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Actual

Q4 2012

Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

Previous forecasts and actual installed wind power capacity

MW

Follow up

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Actual

Actual (normal year)

Q4 2012

Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Q4 2015

Q4 2016

Q4 2017

Q4 2018

Previous forecasts and actual annual wind power production

TWh