0© DKMA 2011

The ACI Traffic Forecast Report (TFR)

ACI Statistics and Forecasting Workshop

Catherine Harmel-Tourneur, DKMA

March 2011

1© DKMA 2011

Overview of the Presentation

• Presentation of the ACI Traffic Forecasts.– Methodology.– ACI vs. other industry forecasts.

• Key forecast results:– The ACI long term forecast; and– The ACI short term forecast.

2© DKMA 2011

ACI Traffic Forecast Report (TFR)

• The ACI report is prepared in partnership with DKMA since 2006.– DKMA is an aviation market, research and forecasting specialist.– Aside from the TFR, still in partnership with ACI, we prepare individual airport forecasts (aka as the ‘Traffic

Forecast Advisory Services’).– Finally we also manage the Airport Survey Quality (ASQ).

• The report highlights traffic from the perspective of the airport industry.– Period covered: 2009-2029.– Latest edition was released in Q4 2010.

• The report is based on the traffic forecasts from over 300 airports.– Additionally, inputs/ adjustments are made.

• The forecast covers:– Development of worldwide passengers;– Traffic projections by world regions;– Individual countries;– Forecast traffic growth between region pairs; and– Freight and aircraft movement forecast.

3© DKMA 2011

140 Individual Countries are Covers

• Africa:– Algeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Reunion, South Africa, Tanzania,

Tunisia and Zimbabwe

• Asia/ Pacific:– Australia, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, New

Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam

• Europe:– Armenia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,

France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia & Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine and United Kingdom

• Latin America/ Caribbean: – Argentina, Aruba, Barbados, Bermuda, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican

Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guadeloupe, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Mexico, Neth. Antilles, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Lucia, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela

• North America:– Canada and USA

• Middle East:– Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

4© DKMA 2011

Overview of the Methodology

• Steps to the production of the TFR: – Send and compile completed questionnaires to ACI members:

• Questionnaire covers: pax, cargo and ATMs.– For the short term period some forecast figures are revised:

• Revisions based on most recent capacity development (OAG); • Year to date trends;• Carrier bankruptcy and other events;• State of the economy;• Etc.

– Internal models, including regression driven models, are used.

• The TFR is a combination of a bottom-up forecast (short/ medium term) and top-down (long term).

5© DKMA 2011

Overview of the Methodology: The Work Flow

Forecast database/models

Traffic inputs

By country

Domestic vs. Intl

Intl by world region

Historical trends Projected trends

Questionnaire inputs OAG Flight Schedules(History and current

year)ACI traffic database

Other data sources(FAA, Civil Aviation

Authorities, etc.)

GDP & Population: History & Forecast

Tourism

Passengers Flights Freight

Global

Airline capacity inputs Socio-economic inputs

6© DKMA 2011

ACI TFR vs. Other Forecast Sources

ACI IATA Airbus Boeing Rolls-Royce

Forecast period 20 years 5 years 20 years 20 years 20 yearsYear by year forecasts First 5 years First 5 years No No NoCountry totals Yes Yes No No NoDomestic-International split Yes Yes No No NoRegion-pairs Yes Yes Yes Yes YesCountry-to-region Yes Yes No No NoCountry-pairs No Yes No No NoHistorical trends Yes No No Yes NoForecas assumptions Yes Yes Yes Yes YesPassenger volumes Yes Yes No No NoRPK volumes No Yes No Yes YesAnnual rates of growth Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Main sources of industry forecasts

7© DKMA 2011

Global Results: Comparing Forecasts

• Traffic growth expressed in RPKs is generally higher than when expressed in passenger enplanements.

– Based on OAG, historically this difference has been 1.0% between 1995-2000 and 0.8% between 2000-2010.

• It means that, when expressed in passenger-kilometres, the ACI forecast is close to 4.9% p.a. for the next 20 years.

ACI Pax 4.1%Airbus RPKs 4.7%Boeing RPKs 5.3%Rolls-Royce RPKs 4.8%

OAG (2000-2010) Seats 2.6%OAG (2000-2010) Seat-km 3.4%Difference 0.8%

20 year period forecast

8© DKMA 2011

Link Between Economic Growth and Air Transport

Source: DKMA

9© DKMA 2011

The Markets Driving Growth

Source: DKMA

10© DKMA 2011

Long Term Forecast Trends by World Region

Small Base –High Potential

Large Base –Moderate Potential

Source: DKMA

Large Base –High Potential

11© DKMA 2011

Growth Trends by Key Route Areas

Source: DKMA

12© DKMA 2011

Fastest Growing Countries

8.6%8.2% 8.0%

6.6%6.2% 6.2%

5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Mainlan

d China

IndiaViet

nam

Indones

iaRom

ania

Brazil

PeruPhil

ippines

Egypt

South A

frica

Ave

rage

ann

ual g

row

th 2

009-

2029

Most Fast Growing Markets will be in Asia

Source: DKMA

13© DKMA 2011

Largest Aviation Markets in 2029

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

USMain

land C

hina

India

Brazil UK

German

y

Spain

Austra

lia

Japan Ita

ly

Pass

enge

rs (0

00)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Ave

rage

ann

ual g

row

th 2

009-

2029

20092029Growth

In 20 Years China Will be Almost as Large as the US

Source: DKMA

14© DKMA 2011

Short Term Forecast

• 6 time per year a short term regional forecast is published.– Can be downloaded for free at: http://www.dkma.com/publications– Latest forecast released in Feb. 2011.

Passenger traffic: History and short term forecast

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

J-09

F-09

M-0

9A

-09

M-0

9J-

09J-

09A

-09

S-09

O-0

9N

-09

D-0

9J-

10F-

10M

-10

A-1

0M

-10

J-10

J-10

A-1

0S-

10O

-10

N-1

0D

-10

J-11

F-11

M-1

1A

-11

M-1

1

Forecast

Source: DKMA

15© DKMA 2011

Short Term Forecast

Source: DKMA

• Forecast indicates that the start of 2011 will be positive but risk exist.– Continued robust growth in emerging markets and economic rebounds in North America and Europe.– In Europe the forecast reflects the expectation that its travel market will recover from the volcanic.– The forecast is tempered by uncertainties surrounding the political situation in the Middle East and North

Africa.

• Forecast was prepared in early February 2011.

6.2%5.2%8.3%5.7%5.8%6.2%World

3.4%3.8%3.9%4.0%3.4%1.9%North America

6.6%5.0%5.2%8.1%8.2%6.5%Middle East

7.8%6.4%7.3%7.9%8.1%9.2%Lat. America/Caribbean

7.3%4.9%15.3%5.1%5.2%6.9%Europe

8.0%7.2%7.4%7.7%8.5%9.1%Asia/Pacific

5.8%4.3%6.0%5.9%3.5%9.4%Africa

YTDMayAprilMarchFebruaryJanuary

ForecastsEstimates

Short term forecast by regions ‐ May 2011

16© DKMA 2011

Catherine Harmel-Tourneur

Director

Tel: +1 450 550 6951E-mail: catherine.harmel@dkma.com

For more a copy of the short term forecast, information or questions, please contact:

or check our website: www.aci-forecast.aero

Contacts