state of the world market and prospects for economic policy in russia
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State of the World Market and Prospects for Economic Policy in Russia. Ye . T . Gaidar. 22 January 2008, Institute for the Economy in Transition. Annual GDP growth rates in Russia, %. Annual growth rates of investments, %. Growth rates of incomes in real terms, %. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
State of the World Market and Prospects for Economic Policy in
Russia.
Ye. T. Gaidar
22 January 2008, Institute for the Economy in Transition
2
Annual GDP growth rates in Russia, %
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
3
Annual growth rates of investments, %
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
4-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Growth rates of incomes in real terms, %
5
Growth rates of output in manufacturing, %
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Machinery and equipment total
Electronics and optics manufacturing
Transport vehicles and equipment
6
Exports of machinery and equipment from Russia, %
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
7
Growth in communication sector, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
8
Output growth rates: extractive industries versus manufacturing, 2003-2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Extractive industries Manufacturing
9
Growth rates of world GDP (left-hand scale) and price trends for crude oil and metals (right-
hand scale)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
весь мир нефть металлы весь мир (среднее)
10
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
приток/отток капитала, млрд. долл. темпы роста мировой экономики
Net inflow/outflow of investments in developing countries, billion USD (left-hand scale)
and world GDP growth rates (right-hand scale)
11
Thailand’s balance of capital transactions before and
during the Asian financial crisis, % of GDP
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1995 1996 1997 1998
12
GDP growth rates in Thailand, 1992-1998, %
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1992-95 1996 1997 1998
13
GDP growth rates in China, 2000-2007 and forecasts for 2010, %
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000-2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 2010*
14
Growth rates of Consumer Price Index in China,
2000-2008, %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000-2005 2006 2007 2008*
IMF data China's official statistics
15
Growth rates of world GDP, Russia’s GDP, and
GDP of the CIS excluding Russia, 1996-2008
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
World total Russia CIS (excl. Russia)
16
Russian Exports in 2006
Metals and metal products
14%
Machinery, equipment and
transport vehicles 6%
Mineral products66%
Other commodities 14%
17
Economic growth and General Government budget deficit/surplus (as a share of GDP) in USA
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008*
GDP growth rates Budget surplus/deflict
18
Federal and General Government’s Budget Surplus (left-hand scale)
and GDP growth (right-hand scale)
0%1%
2%3%4%
5%6%7%
8%9%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
General government budget surplusFederal budget surplusGDP growth rates
19
General government’s expenditures growth rates
in Russia, %
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
20
Crude oil prices in the long run, constant 2000 dollars
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Pri
ce,
2000
co
nst
ant
US
D p
er 1
bar
rel
*
Average his toric level (19.41 USD per barrel)
Average annual price
21
UK Brent prices in 2007
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
jan feb mar apr may june july aug sept oct nov dec
US dollars per barrel Euros per barrel
22
Consumer Price Index growth in Russia, %
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
23
Real wages growth rates, %
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
24
Proportion of Russian industrial enterprises that name workforce shortage as an obstacle to output
growth (polls data), %
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
fore
cast
25
Net import/export of capital by private sector in Russia, in billions of USD
0,1
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
26
Russian external debt, in billions of USD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Private sector Public sector
27
Russian gold and foreign currency reserves by end of year, in billions of USD
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
28
Russian Stabilization Fund by 31 December of corresponding year (as a
Share of GDP)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007
29
General Government’s budget revenues growth
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
30
Russia and France: average annual growth of government revenues, in %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
France (1950-1980) Russia (Gen. Govt.) 2000-2007