pakistan-russia relations: progress, prospects and constraints - the islamabad policy ... · 2015....

Pakistan-Russia Relations: Progress, Prospects and Constraints 63

Pakistan-Russia Relations: Progress, Prospects and

Constraints

Muhammad Hanif

Abstract

It would be an important relationship for Pakistan to become

a regional partner of Russia which is a major regional and

world power, having great economic potential and the right

to exercise the veto power at the UNSC. With the tense

history of their Cold War relationship, the Afghan Jihad

against Soviet occupation and the subsequent „war on terror‟

now behind them, Pakistan and Russia see their strategic and

economic interests converging in the face of the awaited

withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Afghanistan in

2014. Both envisage a role for themselves in achieving peace

and stability in Afghanistan and economic cooperation in

Central Asia. While Pakistan needs Russian investment for

reviving its economy due to dwindling American aid, Russia

also eyes Pakistan as a good destination for its investments

and trade, with India getting closer to the US and Europe in

its place. It is in this light that the recent progress in Pak-

Russian relations is being seen. Another helping factor in this

growing closeness is the strategic partnership India and the

US have struck. Therefore, whatever the constraints, the

relationship has strong prospects. And Pakistan has to keep

its diplomatic focus on this mutual interest.

Key Words: Pakistan, Russia, India, United States, Cold War,

Afghanistan, Central Asia.

Introduction

n the Cold War period relations between Pakistan and the then USSR

remained generally uneasy barring some diplomatic initiatives for

improvement. After Cold War‟s end and USSR‟s disintegration in

1991, the successor state Russia has regained and consolidated its politico-

economic and military status as a major world power. Its economy is strong

Col. Muhammad Hanif (retd), Consultant/Research Fellow, Islamabad Policy

Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad.

I

IPRI Journal XIII, no. 2 (Summer 2013): 63-86

64 Muhammad Hanif thanks to oil and gas revenues and its political stature high in a territorially

reconciled neighbourhood. It has realigned its foreign policy and for the last

couple of years has been re-asserting its position as a veto power in the

United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Pakistan‟s strategic and

economic interests make Russia an important regional player which regards

Pakistan with greater interest in the post-Cold War era.

In the first decade after the end of the Cold War although bilateral

visits remained a regular feature, progress in mutual relations remained

sluggish. Trust building needed time while the factor of India‟s influence on

Moscow was still there. Meanwhile new factors had emerged like

Pakistan‟s support of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the later half of 1990s.

Moreover it was a period of economic transition in Russia and its political

adjustment in a united Europe without the East-West division. Vyacheslav

Nikonov, Deputy Head of Foreign Affairs Committee told Russian

Television in a telephonic interview, “ In initial years of Perestroika, Russia

was definitely Western- oriented; Gorbachev had been speaking about a

„common European home,‟ while Yelstin actually applied for NATO and

EU membership. This has given us nothing as the only result of these

efforts was Eastward expansion of NATO. Russia should turn to the East

and become a self-sufficient centre of international strength. We cannot be

integrated into European Union or NATO; we are too big and too Russian

for that. Russia is doomed to be an independent central power.”1

However, the terrorist attacks in the US on 9/11 and Pakistan‟s

decision of abandoning the Taliban and joining the „war on terror‟ in

Afghanistan as a front line state altered the whole scenario and Russian

perceptions about Pakistan‟s role in the region started to change for the

better. The materialization of the 2003 visit to Moscow of Pervez

Musharraf, then President, gave a major fillip to improving relations.

Afterwards, the Indian nuclear deal and agreement of strategic partnership

with the US further helped in opening up Russia towards Pakistan. Lately,

Russian perception about Pakistan as a key player in achieving peace in

Afghanistan appears to have favourably disposed the regional environment

towards advancing Pakistan-Russia relations. Apart from strategic security

reasons, many economic and trade related opportunities for both sides also

favour the development of bilateral ties.

With the Cold War baggage in mind this paper traces the gradual

warming up in bilateral relations between the two countries and the

1 http://rt.com/politics/nikonov-interview-russia-us-west-425/ (accessed May 5,

2013).

http://rt.com/politics/nikonov-interview-russia-us-west-425/


progress attained since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, particularly

during the „war on terror‟ years. The paper analyses the quick progress

made in improving relations during the period 2010-2012 highlighting the

factors which crystallized the convergence of their strategic interests. The

paper then highlights the prospects of developing closer bilateral strategic

and economic relations. It identifies the likely obstacles and constraints

which can hinder the progress and offers recommendations for Pakistan to

strengthen its political, strategic and economic relations with Russia.

Theoretical Framework

During the Cold War period, Pakistan had to align itself with the US by

becoming part of CENTO and SEATO to respond to its security concerns

from India and in this regard its foreign relations were guided by the realist

theory of international politics. According to the realist theory,2 as

explained by Hans Morgenthau (1891-1976) and George Kennan (1904-

2205) “since states are primary actors, are sovereign and there is anarchy at

world stage in the sense that due to absence of a central controlling

authority to regulate state behaviour, states try to defend their interests (the

state survival being the prime interest) through coercion and use of force.

Hence to defend themselves against aggression the states either try to

maximize their power or seek alliances to create and maintain state of

balance of power. In this context the ethics are inconsequential.” Since the

US objective of making Pakistan a part of the above mentioned treaties was

designed to contain the then Soviet Union, Soviet relations with Pakistan

remained soured and even hostile at times. In response, during this period

the Soviet Union always provided diplomatic and military assistance to

India on issues related to Pakistan. Pakistan‟s foreign policy also remained

US-friendly to the extent that it acted as a US ally in organizing the

Afghans‟ resistance guerrilla war against the Soviet occupation from 1979

to 1989 (when USSR decided to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan).

However since the emergence of Russia as heir to the USSR which broke

up in 1992, its perceptions about Pakistan have undergone a positive change

to which Pakistan has been more than receptive.

In the post Cold War world politics Russia as a multi-party

democracy with a liberal economy has stabilized and consolidated its

economic and military power and has also re-established itself as a major

world power. It has started reasserting its influence in international affairs

2 Keith L. Shimko, International Relations, (US: Suzanne Jeans Publishers, 2008),

50.

66 Muhammad Hanif which is its due as a major military and economic power possessing modern

technological prowess and holding sway over vast territories across two

continents. Being a veto power at the UN its significant international

influence at the world stage is evident from its role in the Syrian crisis and

Iran‟s nuclear programme tussle with the US. Russia, along with China, has

already vetoed UNSC resolutions on the Syrian issue twice and obstructed

further sanctions against Iran. Pakistan cannot fail but recognize this

importance of Russia as a world and regional player and it would be natural

for it to meet more than half way if a gesture of improvement in ties comes

from Moscow that till 2000 had had concerns with Pakistan relating to its

recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

That scenario however dramatically changed when in the wake of

9/11 attacks Pakistan reversed its Taliban policy and became part of the US

and NATO led „war on terror‟ in Afghanistan. Russia now sees how central

Pakistan is to any scheme of ending the conflict in Afghanistan and

bringing peace in the region. And now with the US withdrawal from

Afghanistan in sight, Russia and Pakistan‟s strategic interests in working

for peace in Afghanistan and the region have come even closer. Moreover,

Pakistan, which feels it was unduly treated to pressures from the US in the

„war on terror‟ that Russian leaders took notice of in their statements in

favour of respecting Pakistan‟s sovereignty, wants to put its relations with

Russia on a firm footing to diversify its foreign policy options. Similarly to

have Pakistan‟s role in maintaining regional peace after the West‟s exit

from Afghanistan, Russia has been making appropriate moves. These

changing perceptions and efforts on both sides to develop closer relations

have been reinforced by the evolving strategic partnership between China

and Russia. These major powers are also moving closer to each other since

both share views on building a world security architecture based on the

principles of respecting sovereignty and integrity of the states and handling

of crisis situations and interstate and intrastate disputes primarily through

all inclusive internal, bilateral and multilateral dialogue under the UN

sponsorship3. Both powers also agree that if the use of force appears to be

the only option it has to be decided and monitored by the United Nations as

is evident from their blocking of UNSC resolutions seeking UN approval

for use of force in support of the Syrian opposition. Another development

that inclines Pakistan towards Russia is India‟s strategic partnership with

3 “The Concept of Russian Foreign Policy”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the

Russian Federation,

http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/76389FEC168189ED44257B2E0039B16D


the US and Afghanistan which the former thinks is an attempt to establish

Delhi‟s military influence in Afghanistan and which is a strategy that

indeed may have the aim of encircling Pakistan. In this context Pakistan

thinks that despite its friendship Russia has a nagging skepticism about

India‟s future role in Afghanistan and Central Asia which might be in

service of US strategic objectives in the region. Russia which sees Pakistan

as a supportive hand in regional peace will not therefore support India in its

anti-Pakistan Afghan politics. The pursuit of the realist theory on this two-

way friendship track is thus quite evident.

Yet another dimension besides its strategic interests in the region

that Pakistan seeks in this new phase of its relationship with Russia is in the

economic realm which under the global drive can have its own growth

momentum. Pakistan seeks Russian economic assistance in the form of

foreign direct investment and technological cooperation particularly in the

energy field. Russia seems inclined to responding to these needs in addition

to increasing the trade volume. The development of these economic

relations is taking place in the true spirit of the theory of commercial

liberalism according to which trade, investment and interdependence are

forces for peace.4 In this paper the strategic and economic relations between

Russia and Pakistan are examined largely in the theoretical framework of

realism and commercial liberalism besides drawing insights from theories

of constructivism and globalized interdependence.

Uneasy Bilateral Relations in the Cold War Period

Soon after Pakistan‟s inception the then Soviet Union invited its first Prime

Minister, Liaquat Ali Khan to visit Moscow. Later, in the same year the

United States of America also invited him. Liaquat Ali Khan accepted the

latter invitation.5 It is believed that Liaquat Ali Khan preferred the US visit

for prospects of procuring defence equipment and economic assistance

which the Soviet Union despite Pakistan‟s repeated requests had not

responded to.6 These were urgently needed to bolster defence against India

after the1948 war over Kashmir and to support Pakistan‟s precarious

4 Keith L. Shimko, International Relations, 55.

5 Muhammad Owais, “Pakistan-Russia Relations: Economic and Political

Dimensions,” Pakistan Horizon, vol.60, no. 2 (April 2007): 127. 6 Sabir Shah, “A Brief Recap of the Troubled Pak-Russia Relationship,” News

International (Islamabad), October 4, 2012, http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-

News-2-135657-A-brief-recap-of-the-troubled-Pak-Russia-relationship (accessed

May 4, 2013).

68 Muhammad Hanif economic situation at that time. It was also thought that after losses suffered

in World War II the Soviet Union would not be in a position to provide the

kind of economic assistance Pakistan urgently needed.7 On the other side

Soviet suspicions grew that Pakistan was joining the anti-communist

Western alliance which proved to be correct when in 1954 and 1955

Pakistan joined the SEATO and CENTO pacts.8 That drew the USSR closer

to India in a defence relationship under which Soviet military hardware

started flowing to India disturbing the balance of power in South Asia.

Moscow endorsed India‟s Kashmir9 stand at all international forums

including the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). In the Cold War

period, Soviet efforts to reach the warm waters of the Arabian Sea were

interpreted in Pakistan as aimed at separating the Balochistan province from

Pakistan.10

The Soviet Union supported Afghanistan on the Pakhtunistan

issue.11

It also supported India in its military aggression in East Pakistan in

1971 under a Peace and Friendship Treaty it had signed with India in 1971

and facilitated the country‟s disintegration by vetoing an important

resolution12

at the UNSC that called for a ceasefire and could have provided

time and space for a political solution.

The worst period of their relationship lasted a decade from 1979 to

1989 when Pakistan helped launch the US sponsored guerrilla war of the

Mujahedin against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. This bitter phase

ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.13

But another

source of tension arose in the later part of 1990s on account of Pakistan‟s

support to the Taliban in the Afghan civil war and its ultimate recognition

7 Ardeshir Cowasjee, “A Recap of Soviet-Pakistan Relations,” Dawn, March 13,

2011,

http://dawn.com/2011/03/13/a-recap-of-soviet-pakistan-relations/ (accessed May

4, 2013). 8 Musa Khan Jalalzai, The Foreign Policy of Pakistan (Lahore: Ariana Publications,

2004), 306. 9 Ibid., 307.

10 Momina Ashier, “Fortifying Pak-Russia Relations,” Daily Times, June 30, 2012.

11 Ibid.

12 Sanskar Shrivastava, “1971 India-Pakistan War: Role of Russia, China, America

and Britain”, World Reporter, October 30, 2011,

http://www.theworldreporter.com/2011/10/1971-india-pakistan-war-role-of-

russia.html (accessed May 4, 2013). 13

“Fall of The Soviet Union”,

http://www.coldwar.org/articles/90s/fall_of_the_soviet_union.asp (accessed May

5, 2013).


of their government which the Soviets believed was harmful for the entire

region.14

However, despite this history of tense relations, both countries from

time to time made moves to improve their relations. In 1958, the Soviet

Union indicated its interest in providing economic and technical assistance

to Pakistan in agriculture and control of floods. President Muhammad Ayub

Khan visited the Soviet Union in April 1965,15

the first ever visit of a

Pakistani head of state. The visit helped in removing misunderstandings and

agreements on trade, economic cooperation and cultural exchanges were

signed.16

In 1966 USSR mediated the famous Tashkent Declaration

between Pakistan and India to end the 1965 war stalemate.17

In that

improved bilateral environment, in April 1968, Soviet Prime Minister

Alexei Kosygin visited Pakistan and announced a limited supply of arms to

Pakistan.18

In 1969, President Yahya Khan visited Moscow and a deal for

provision of some helicopters to Pakistan was signed.19

When after the

separation of East Pakistan in 1971 Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto assumed power, he

revised Pakistan‟s foreign policy withdrawing from SEATO in 1973 and

CENTO in 1979.20

As Prime Minister of Pakistan he visited USSR twice,

first in March 1972 and then in October 1974 which considerably improved

bilateral relations as a result of which the Soviet Union installed a steel mill

in Karachi.21

The Soviet President, Leonid Brezhnev, also made an effort to

convince Pakistan about his Asian Collective Security Treaty plan which

14

S. Iftikhar Murshed, “Pakistan, Russia and the Taliban,” News International

(Islamabad), September 30, 2012, http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-

134923-Pakistan-Russia-and-the-Taliban (accessed May 5, 2013). 15

Ansar Mahmood Bhatti, “Pakistan-Russia Détente?,” Defence Journal,

(February, 2003),

http://www.defencejournal.com/2003/feb/pak-russia.htm (accessed May 4,

2013) 16

Muhammad Owais, “Pakistan- Russia Relations: Economic and Political

Dimensions,” Pakistan Horizon, vol. 60, no. 2, (April 2007): 127. 17

Musa Khan Jalalzai, The Foreign Policy of Pakistan, 310. 18


Dimensions,” 127. 19

Nazir Hussain, “Pak-Russia Relations: Lost Opportunities and Future Options,”

Journal of Political Studies 19, no.1 (2002),

http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/pols/pdf-files/Pak-

russia%20relations,%20opportunities%20Nazir_Vol_19_Issue_1_2012.pdf

(accessed May 4, 2013). 20

“Milestones: 1953-1960”, US Department of State,

http://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960 (accessed May 3, 2013). 21

Nazir Hussain, “Pak-Russia Relations: Lost Opportunities and Future Options”,

83.

70 Muhammad Hanif could not materialize since China and India were also not in favour of such

a proposal.22

In the Cold War period these positive developments could not

yield the desired results in creating sustainable friendly relations between

Pakistan and Russia.

Progress Attained in Improving Relations in the Post Cold War

Era

Development of Relations before 9/11

In the post Cold War period, Pakistan and Russia found opportunities for

making a new beginning in developing better relations. Both countries

started reviewing their old policies and initiated various foreign policy

initiatives to develop closer friendly relations. The progress made in

improving relations is reflected in bilateral diplomatic visits and related

agreements signed particularly after 9/11, in the environment of the „war on

terror‟.23

These endeavours were quite in line with the new world trend of

countries pursuing independent foreign policies to advance their national

interests in the best possible manner within the constraints of a unipolar

world order led by the US. These diplomatic initiatives include the visits to

Pakistan by Russian Vice President Alexander Rutskoy in December 1992,

Foreign Minister Kozyrev in April 1993, and First Deputy Foreign Minister

Adamishin in May 1994. In return, Pakistan‟s Foreign Secretary Akram

Zaki visited Russia in 1992 and Foreign Minister Sardar Asif Ahmed Ali

visited Moscow in July 1994. During the latter‟s visit an important protocol

was also signed on holding regular consultations between foreign ministers

of the two countries. In September 1995, a Russian parliamentary

delegation visited Pakistan. The leader of the delegation, Alexander

Vengerovsky, disclosed that Russia was ready to supply military hardware

to Pakistan.24

This developing close relationship was however again

interrupted on account of Pakistan‟s support to the Taliban government

which Russia feared could spark separatism in some of the Central Asian

22

Debidatta Aurobina Mahapatra, “Vladimir Putin‟s, Pakistan Visit and India”,

September 24, 2012, http://idrus.in/articles/2012/09/24/validinir_putin_Pakistan-

visit_and_india_17855-html. 23


84. 24

Muhammad Owais,” Pakistan- Russia Relations: Economic and Political

Dimensions”, 129.


States (CARs) and even in Russia itself. Yet both sides continued their

efforts to improve relations.

Nawaz Sharif, as Prime Minister of Pakistan, visited Russia in 1999

and signed quite a few trade and industry related agreements. This visit

greatly helped in breaking the ice and opening a new chapter of bilateral

relations.25

The visit was termed by the Russian President Boris Yeltsin as a

“new chapter in relations between the two countries oriented into the 21st

century.”26

There onwards exchange of visits by representatives of both

countries became a regular feature. In September 1999 special envoy of

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pakistan and after discussions with

the Pakistani leadership, he stated that Pakistan was capable of playing a

stabilizing role in the region by helping in addressing the issues of

international terrorism, narcotics trafficking and religious extremism.27

A

major development in bilateral relations occurred in 2001, before the 9/11

attacks in the US when as a consequence of visit to Russia by the ISI Chief,

General Mehmood, as President Musharraf‟s special envoy, an agreement

was concluded for the sale of sixteen MI-17 military cargo helicopters to

Pakistan.28

Since that visit, Pakistan and Russia have been engaged in

proactive diplomacy to improve bilateral relations and intense high level

interactions have continued to take place between two countries.

Advancement of Relations in the Aftermath of 9/11

After 9/11 Pakistan‟s major policy shift in abandoning the Taliban and

becoming a front line state in fighting the international „war on terror‟ in

Afghanistan greatly helped in improving its relations with Russia. They

established a major working group in 2002 called the Consultative Group

on Strategic Stability and also signed an agreement to cooperate in handling

threats to regional stability.29

Aziz Ahmed Khan, Additional Secretary,

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, visited Moscow in January 2002 for

consultations on trade, economic and political matters. In early 2002, a

Russian business delegation visited Pakistan as a consequence of which the

Pakistan-Russia Business Forum and Pakistan-Russia Business Council

were created targeting a turnover of one billion dollars worth of trade and

25

Musa Khan Jalalzai, The Foreign Policy of Pakistan, 319. 26

Muhammad Owais,” Pakistan- Russia Relations: Economic and Political

Dimensions”, 129. 27

Musa Khan Jalalzai, The Foreign Policy of Pakistan, 320 28


Dimensions”, 130. 29

Ibid., 130-131

72 Muhammad Hanif investments in the coming years.

30 A major development in bilateral

relations was the visit of President Pervez Musharraf to Russia in 2003.

This land mark visit and President Musharraf‟s earlier meetings with

Russian President, Vladimir Putin at Almaty and Kuala Lumpur, greatly

helped in building mutual trust and confidence. Both countries also signed

three agreements to enhance cultural and diplomatic ties and to resolve visa

and immigration bottlenecks.31

As a result of improved relations Russia also

supported Pakistan‟s entry to the SCO as an Observer.

Russian Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, visited Pakistan in July

2004. Also, a delegation of Russian Duma visited Pakistan the same year.32

Russia and Pakistan also see prospects of collaboration in the fuel and

energy sector. Russian Gazprom is interested in the construction of Iran-

Pakistan gas pipeline.33

In 2005, both countries‟ presidents met on the

sidelines of UN General Assembly session and heads of governments met

in Moscow during the SCO heads of government meeting. The high level

contacts continued in 2006. Apart from high level meetings of officials, the

two presidents also met on the sidelines of the SCO meeting in June 2006

and both heads of government met on the sidelines of the next SCO summit

in September 2006. In November 2006, the Russian Foreign Minister

visited Pakistan and held talks with his counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri on

major global issues and cooperation in many fields including energy,

communications, railways and information technology. During their press

conference Khurshid Kasuri said, “We consider Russia as an engine for

increased economic growth and a factor of peace and stability in the

SCO.”34

During this meeting Russia also showed its keen interest in

participating in construction of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.35

In the light of

the increasing mutual visits and contacts it appears that in the post Cold

War strategic environment and after experience of realities of the „war on

terror‟ being fought in Afghanistan, a shift appears to have taken place in

the Russian strategic perception in favour of Pakistan‟s future positive role

in Afghanistan and the region. That is why Russia is showing keen interest

in developing close relations with Pakistan.

In 2007 Russian Prime Minister, Mikhail Fradkov visited Pakistan

(first visit of a Russian Prime Minister in 38 years) and held in-depth

30

Ibid., 131. 31

Ibid. 32

Ibid.,133. 33

Ibid. 34

Ibid., 135. 35

Ibid., 133.


discussions with President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat

Aziz. The emphasis was on increasing economic cooperation.36

In

November 2007 Pakistan‟s Petroleum Minister visited Moscow and signed

a MoU on joint exploration of oil.37

Pakistan‟s Chief of Army Staff,

General Kayani‟s visit to Moscow in 2009 and subsequent meetings of

former Prime Minister Gilani with the Russian leaders on the sidelines of

SCO Summit in Dushanbe in 2010 had paved the way for presidential visits

in the ensuing years.38

In 2011, both countries held talks on the proposed

free trade agreement and currency swap arrangement to boost bilateral trade

and further strengthen their economic relations.39

Quick Progress in Relations in 2010-2012

In 2011, Russia‟s Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin publicly supported

Pakistan‟s desire to attain full membership of SCO.40

He further stated that

in South Asia and the Muslim world Pakistan was a very important partner

for Russia. He offered help in the expansion of Karachi steel mill and in the

energy sector technical assistance for the Guddu and Muzaffargarh power

plants41

as well as the development of Thar Coal Project. Russia‟s warming

up to Pakistan can be seen in the backdrop of India‟s cosying up to the US

following the agreement on strategic partnership.42

And now there is this

three way strategic partnership – between India and Afghanistan and

between the US and Afghanistan – under which US appears to favour India

over Pakistan in Afghan affairs, which is drawing Pakistan and Russia

closer.

President Asif Ali Zardari visited Russia in September 2011, the first

visit of a Pakistani head of state in 37 years. It was basically aimed at

36


84. 37

Ibid. 38

Nadeem Hyder, “Pakistan-Russia Geopolitical Convergence,” Pakistan Observer

(Islamabad), October 18, 2012. 39

“Pakistan-Russia Relations”, Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan%E2%80%93Russia_relations (accessed

September 25, 2012). 40

“From Chicago to Shangre La and Beijing”, http://politact.com/analysis-of-

perception-and-perspective/from-chicago-to-shangri-la-and-beijing.html 41

Ibid. 42

Nivedita Das Kundu, “Russia – Pakistan Relations in the Post- Cold War Era”,

Russia-India Report, January 16, 2012,

http://indrus.in/articles/2012/07/02/russia-pakistan_relations_in_the_post-

cold_war_era_16104.html (accessed September 15, 2012).

74 Muhammad Hanif assuring Russian leaders that Pakistan was ready to forget the legacy of

their bitter past and wanted to forge a new relationship for the good of their

people and for the benefit of the region. During this visit the two countries

signed MoUs in energy, investment, air services and agriculture43

Pakistan‟s

Foreign Minister visited the Russian Federation in March 2012 and met the

Russian Foreign Minister. As stated by Stephen Blank of Strategic Studies

Institute, “Pakistan and Russia has covertly developed geopolitical and

strategic relations behind the scenes of the world politics since Russia has

concluded that in the wake of withdrawal of NATO led ISAF and US forces

by 2014, Pakistan will be a crucial player in Afghanistan and hence speeded

up advancement of relations with this country.”44

In this build-up of cordiality the Russian President, Vladimir Putin,

was scheduled to make a landmark visit to Pakistan in October 2012 but it

was suddenly postponed. It was said by the Russian authorities that the visit

had been temporarily put off due to technical hitches related to holding of

quadrilateral summit in Pakistan. This explanation suggested that the

cancellation was not a rebuff and mutual relations would move on.

However the media speculation was that the cancellation was probably due

to Pakistan‟s reluctance to award the $1.2 billion contract of Iran-Pakistan

gas pipeline to Russia‟s energy giant, Gazprom, without bidding as Russia

wanted. Some said Indian pressure was behind that.45

In his recent article,

Sandeep Dikshit has stated that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had asked

the visiting Russian Prime Minister, Dmitry Rogozin, in July 2012: “Could

Russian President Vladimir Putin, put off his visit to Pakistan in October

2012 so that optics of the India-Russia summit meeting scheduled in

November 2012 could remain unimpaired.”46

In reply, Mr. Rogozin

demurred. However, an accompanying diplomat privately explained that

earlier the Russian side had informed New Delhi that Mr. Putin‟s proposed

43

Nadeem Hyder, “Pakistan-Russia Geopolitical Convergence”. 44

Stephen Blank, “Russia‟s Quiet Rapprochement with Pakistan,” The Jamestown

Foundation, June 6, 2012,

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=39

462 (accessed May 5, 2013). 45

Sadhavi Chauhan, “Pakistan-Russia Relations: Beyond Putin‟s Cancelled Trip to

Islamabad ”,

http://www.opendemocracy.net/sadhavi-chauhan/russia-pakistan-relations-

beyond-putin%E2%80%99s-cancelled-trip-to-islamabad 46

Sandeep Dikshit, “Growing Russia- Pakistan Ties a Reality that India Will Have

to Live With,” Hindu (New Delhi), October 8, 2012,

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/growing-russiapakistan-ties-a-reality-

that-india-will-have-to-live-with/article3975260.ece


visit to Pakistan was related to Afghanistan where future settlement of the

issue depended on its neighbours‟ actions.47

However, three important mutual visits of Pakistani and Russian

officials which took place immediately after the cancellation of the Russian

President‟s visit helped in allaying any misperceptions in this regard. First,

a Russian high-powered delegation visited Pakistan and signed three

important MoUs on expansion and modernization of Pakistan Steel Mills,

cooperation in Railways development and in the energy sector. Then,

Pakistan Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, visited

Russia as per his schedule in the first week of October 2012 and held

meetings with Russian Army top brass and the ruling politicians on ways to

develop defence ties between the two countries.48

Also, to dispel any doubts

being aired in the Pakistani media about cancellation of Putin‟s visit, the

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov, visited Pakistan in

the first week of October 2012 and held meetings with Pakistan‟s Foreign

Minister and also called on the Prime Minister. During his visit he made

some significant statements. In response to a question regarding the

cancellation of President Putin‟s visit, Lavrov stated that the visit was

cancelled due to serious rescheduling problems.

The mere fact that Lavrov planned his visit to Pakistan, after

cancellation of the Presidential visit, just at two days‟ notice after

rescheduling his planned visit to India on October 4, 2012 and his cabinet

colleague, Anatoliy Serdyukov, the Defence Minister, postponed his

planned visit to India to be able to meet General Kayani, who was to visit

Moscow on the same dates, indicates that the cancellation was not meant to

undermine the improving Pakistan-Russia relations.49

Supporting Pakistan‟s

stance on drone attacks, Mr Lavrov declared that they violated the

sovereignty and territorial integrity of any state and were unacceptable. His

statement that Russia favoured the solution of the Afghan issue which is

home grown also coincides with Pakistan‟s position on the issue.50

Mr

Lavrov also stated that Russia attached great importance to consultations

with Pakistan and was looking forward to Pakistan‟s participation in the

next SCO Summit, scheduled to be held in Kyrgyzstan.51

The mutual visits

of officials of both countries which have been discussed and the strong

47

Ibid. 48

“Pak-Russia Relations”, Nation (Lahore), October 3, 2012. 49

Ibid. 50

“Pak-Russia Relations”, Nation (Lahore), October 6, 2012. 51

“Pakistan-Russia Relation should be further Strengthened”, Dawn, October 4,

2012.

76 Muhammad Hanif statements of the Russian Foreign Minister in favour of Pakistan indicate

the significance which Russia is according to Pakistan in the obtaining

regional geo-strategic scenario. Analysts also believe that since Russia

realizes that any successful resolution of the issues associated with

Afghanistan must involve Pakistan, cancellation of President Putin‟s visit to

Pakistan cannot change the relevance of this argument or of Russia‟s

objective of advancing relations with Pakistan.52

Even some Indian scholars

are convinced that Pakistan-Russia relations will progress because being a

close neighbour to Afghanistan, Pakistan is being considered by Russian

leaders as a strategic pivot in the region.53

The officials in Russia, Pakistan

and even India are also of the view that despite the sudden cancellation of

President Putin‟s visit, Russia-Pakistan relations will grow. Moreover, even

President Putin‟s visit to India in November 2012 gave no indication of any

Indian pressure that may have inclined him to relegate the development of

Russia-Pakistan relations. In the overall context the on-going improvement

in bilateral relations of Pakistan and Russia is because of various factors

such as post Cold War geopolitical realignment by Russia, its worries about

Afghanistan‟s post-withdrawal stability for which Russia considers Pakistan

as a key player, Pakistan‟s regional tilt in the wake of its strained relations

with the US, and India‟s growing geo-strategic and military ties with the

US.54

All of these factors strengthen the hope that Pakistan-Russia relations

will continue to move forward55

in the coming years.

Prospects of Developing Closer Bilateral Relations

Opportunities for Russia in Pakistan

Pakistan and Russia find it mutually advantageous to cooperate in the

economic, military and regional politico-strategic and security areas.

Prospects are bright for promoting trade, investment and joint ventures in

the fields of energy, infrastructure development, metal industry and

agriculture sectors.56

Russia wants to invest in mega projects in Pakistan

like construction of Iran- Pakistan gas pipeline, expansion of steel mill at

Karachi, improvement of heavy mechanical complex in Taxilla, expansion

of Guddu and Muzaffargarh power plants, development of Thar coal

52

Ibid. 53

Ibid. 54

Aurobinda Mahapatra, “Vladimir Putin‟s Pakistan Visit and India”, 55

“Fearing Afghanistan, Russia Gets Closer to Pakistan”,

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66040 56

Nivedita Das Kundu, “Russia – Pakistan Relations in the Post- Cold War Era”.


project, partial funding of the CASA (Central Asia- South Asia) 1000

electric transmission project57

from Tajikistan and construction of

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.58

Russia

sees Pakistan as a big market for its engineering exports and Pakistan is

interested in Russia‟s energy projects due to its urgent needs in the sector. 59

This was reiterated by the Russian Premier at the last SCO Summit where

he announced support for Pakistan‟s proposed trade and energy projects.60

Indian diplomats also think that Russia wants better relations with Pakistan

for its economic interests and securing CARs from religious extremism in

cooperation with Pakistan.61

In the military field also, Russia has offered counter-terrorism

equipment to Pakistan and cooperation in fighting terrorism and radicalism.

In view of the US and West‟s reluctance to sell military equipment to

Pakistan, the latter may conveniently turn to Russia for its military supplies

which will also help in maintaining production in its defence industry. As

earlier suggested, Russia recognizes Pakistan‟s strategic significance in the

region particularly with respect to final settlement of Afghanistan 62

where

instability can have negative impact on the security of CARs and North

Caucasus. Pakistan can also be helpful in dealing with drug trafficking

emanating from Afghanistan to Russia through CARs.

Incentives for Pakistan to Advance Its Relations with Russia

As far as Pakistan is concerned, in the wake of many geo-political and geo-

strategic changes taking place in its neighbourhood and to focus on its

internal issues, it has felt the strategic need to strengthen its relations with

all major regional players including Russia. Pakistan believes that a

sustainable political settlement of Afghanistan before completion of the

withdrawal63

will greatly help in achieving internal stability in Pakistan

57

“From Chicago to Shangre La and Beijing”, http://politact.com/analysis-of-

perception-and-perspective/from-chicago-to-shangri-la-and-beijing.html 58

Nadeem Hyder, “Pakistan-Russia Geopolitical Convergence”, Pakistan Observer

(Islamabad), May 21, 2011. 59

Interview of M. K. Bhadrakumar, “Russia-India Relationship is based on

Bedrock of great Trust and Confidence”, http://valdaiclub.com/asia/46581.html 60

“From Chicago to Shangre La and Beijing”. 61

Sandeep Dikshit, “Growing Russia-Pakistan ties a reality that India will have to

live with”. 62

Nivedita Das Kundu, “Russia – Pakistan Relations in the Post- Cold War Era”. 63

Interview of M. K. Bhadrakumar, “Russia-India Relationship is based on

Bedrock of great Trust and Confidence”.

78 Muhammad Hanif which has been adversely affected by the conflict in Afghanistan. Since the

major regional players also want to bring peace in Afghanistan as soon as

possible,64

it is necessary that Pakistan coordinates its efforts with Russia.

Russia is a former superpower and currently a major regional and world

power as a permanent member of United Nations Security Council (UNSC)

having the veto right. It is a leading member of the Shanghai Cooperation

Organization (SCO).65

In view of these strong credentials Pakistan needs

stronger ties with Russia particularly when the US seems inclined to giving

India a major role in the post- 2014 Afghanistan.66

Moreover, constraints of strategic partnership with India,

congressional activism that insists on linking assistance to Pakistan to

performance in the „war on terror‟67

and economic slump at home, that are

purportedly behind America‟s coldness towards Pakistan, a non-ally not so

long ago, also drive the latter to diversify its sources of assistance by

befriending Russia that too appears willing to help Pakistan in many ways.

In the region, China is already assisting Pakistan in various strategic,

military and economic areas. In this age of globalization, Pakistan‟s

thinking of developing good relations with all important regional and world

heavy weights, is in consonance with the world trend of developing good

relations with every country, even ignoring mutual disputes for the sake of

mutual advantage. In a world where geo-economics dominates politics,

Pakistan had better develop and maintain good relations with China, the

US, EU, the Muslim world, Russia, all neighbours and the CARs. With

Russia as a new friend, Pakistan stands to gain in all areas: Connecting

Russia and CARs to Gwadar Port and developing the new Silk Road as

proposed by the US68

will result in an economic turn around for Pakistan.

Moreover Russian ties can help in achieving better relations with India69

through resolution of disputes. In that respect one recalls Moscow‟s role in

brokering the Tashkent Pact which ended the 1965 war impasse between

the contenders.

64

Nivedita Das Kundu, “Russia – Pakistan Relations in the Post- Cold War Era”. 65

Momina Ashier, “Fortifying Pak-Russia Relations,” Daily Times (Lahore), June

30, 2012. 66

Manish Chand, “India‟s Role In Afghanistan: Is US Speaking in Many Voices?”,

http://www.indiawrites.org/diplomacy/indias-role-afghanistan-speaking-voices/ 67

Susan B. Epstein and K. Alan Kronstadt, “Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance,”

CRS Report for Congress (2012,) http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41856.pdf 68

Joshua Kucera, “The New Silk Road?”, The Diplomat,

http://thediplomat.com/2011/11/11/the-new-silk-road/ (accessed November 27,

2012). 69

Aurobina Mahapatra, “Vladimir Putin‟, Pakistan Visit and India”.


Likely Impact of Russia- US Relations and Pakistan’s Position in this

Equation on Pakistan-Russia Relations

For some years now Russia – US relations have been under strains. Their

policies with respect to various issues in the world are not in consonance.

Their major differences are over US plan of deploying the anti nuclear

missile defence in Eastern Europe in the face of Russia‟s opposition.

Currently there are also differences on dealing with the Syrian crises and

Iran‟s nuclear programme. While the US favours unilateral military action

in Syria in support of the opposition groups there and harsher sanctions

against Iran, Russia wants both issues to be resolved through bilateral or

multilateral negotiations under UN auspices. In response to the US State

Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland‟s announcement that the US was

still set to act in circumvention of the United Nations Security Council‟s

decision on Syria, Russia and China jointly called for other nations to

strictly observe the UN charter and the international law.70

Russia also

strongly differed over the development of the US global missile defence

system. Russia‟s Chief of Staff, Valery Gerasimov warned “If the US

continues with a global ABM system, Moscow may exit the new START

treaty signed in 2010.71

He added, “We make no secret that we have

military means to neutralizing the possible negative impact of the US global

missile defence system on the Russian nuclear forces potential.”72

In March 2009 when Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister

announced a „reset‟ in relations, the future looked quite bright. But in the

past three years the relations have deteriorated sharply. Except for the new

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty signed in 2010 there has been no major

improvement in the relations73

though both sides maintain active diplomatic

contacts in view of the looming threat of another global financial crises,

tensions in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia Pacific regions.

This tense state of Russia – US relations places Pakistan, with its

geo-strategic importance, in a position of interest for both Moscow and

Washington. For Russia, Pakistan has significance for providing access to

the Arabian Sea and the Gulf; serving as a back door to Iran; as the route of

the pipeline projects; and as a counterweight to the nearby powers of India,

70

“Russia, China Say Bypassing UN Rules is Impossible”,

http://rt.com/politics/russia-bypassing-un-inadmissible-189/ 71

“Obama, Putin Exchange Letters Amid Troubled US-Russia Relations”,

http://rt.com/politics/putin-obama-message-patrushev-669/ 72

Ibid. 73

Ibid.

80 Muhammad Hanif China and Russia.

74 Pakistan could also be useful in helping the US

maintain a foothold if not a strong hold in the region.75

The former US

Defence Secretary Robert Gates is reported to have hinted at Pakistan‟s

strategic importance when he said: “We (US and Pakistan) need each other

more than just in the context of Afghanistan”.76

On its part Russia wants to

deepen its economic and strategic relations with Pakistan since it wants to

work with Pakistan in stabilizing Afghanistan and the Central Asian region.

During his visit to Pakistan in October 2012 he had said that the inter-

governmental commission between the two countries had been working to

promote economic cooperation between the two countries and that Russia

attached great importance to consultations with Pakistan and was looking

forward to Pakistan‟s participation in the next SCO Summit scheduled to be

held in Kyrgyzstan.77

It is being perceived in Russia that in case Pakistan-

US friendship fell apart due to US undue pressure on Pakistan to do more in

fighting the „war on terror‟, Russia‟s close cooperation with Pakistan will

give it a chance to gain a real foothold in South and Central Asia.78

Russia

will also gain access to the India Ocean through the Arabian Sea and to the

Straits of Hormuz bypassing Iran. Russia should also endeavour to make

Pakistan a permanent member of the SCO since Pakistan can greatly help it

in controlling terrorist activities in Central Asia. And if Iran, Afghanistan

and India also ultimately acquire SCO membership the balance of power in

the region will greatly tilt in favour of China and Russia.79

These factors

bode well for Pakistan-Russia relations in the future. However due to its old

strategic links with Pakistan the US may not like the advancement of this

relationship.

Russian foreign policy favours a modern system of collective

security evolved through supporting sustainable social and economic

development of all countries. It also wants to assist economic development

of less developed regions and countries to eliminate imbalances in

development.80

Towards this end, Russia is pursuing a liberal economic

74

Xiao Ling, “The Strategic Importance of Pakistan”, New York Times, June 20,

2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/21/opinion/21iht-edlet21.html?_r=0 75

Ibid. 76

Ibid. 77

“Russian Foreign Minister, Pakistan PM Discuss Bilateral Matters, Regional

Issues”, http://www.nihao-salam.com/news-detail.php?id=Mjc3OA== 78

“Pakistan Can Make Russia Queen of Asia”,

http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/28-08-2012/122006-pakistan_russia-0/ 79

Ibid. 80

“Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation”, Ministry of Foreign

Affairs of the Russian Federation,


policy without giving much consideration to any geo-political constraints. It

is using its donor potential to pursue active and targeted policies in the area

of international development at bilateral and multilateral levels.81

It wants to

increase its trade and investment relations with all the countries. It will

therefore be easier for Pakistan to develop economic and trade relations

with Russia without any difficulty.

Likely Constraints to the Development of Relations

The current geo-political and regional environment appears to be quite

favourable to the advancement of Pakistan-Russia relations. Over the years,

China has also developed friendly relations with Russia and therefore it will

not disapprove the growth of Pakistan-Russia relations. On the other hand,

in all likelihood it would support such a development as a helping hand in

bailing out Pakistan from its current economic difficulties.82

Although opportunities for advancing Pakistan-Russia relations are

many, there can be some hurdles and constraints as well in carrying forward

the process since India, some Muslim countries and the US may not feel

comfortable over this evolving partnership and therefore may like to

constrain the progress through hurdles that one might like to explore.

India

Kashmir and other unresolved disputes continue to mar prospects of

improvement in Pakistan India ties. The tendency to treat each other as

adversaries suffers no diminishment. Both envy each other‟s relations with

the major powers of the world. In the post Cold War scenario while US-

India relations have greatly improved and transformed into the strategic

partnership, Pakistan-US relations have suffered a decline after ups and

downs over a period. The long-time friendship between India and Russia is

still very strong. This is because Russia is the successor state of the former

Soviet Union which was the main supplier of defence equipment to India

for many decades. Both countries also share some perceptions on Islamic

extremism and regional stability in Central Asia.83

Their geopolitical ties

http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/76389FEC168189ED44257B2E0039B16D

81 Ibid.

82 Liza Curtis, “The Reorientation of Pakistan‟s Foreign Policy towards its Region”,

Contemporary South Asia, vol. 20, no. 2, (2012): 257. 83

Richard Weitz, “The Maturing of Russia-India Defence Relations”, Journal of

Defence Studies, vol. 6, no.3, (July 2012), http://www.idsa.in/

/6_3_2012_TheMaturingofRussiaIndiaDefenceRelations_RichardWeitz

82 Muhammad Hanif are also very strong since 2011 when they upgraded their friendship to the

level of „Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership‟.84

The Russian

Government has supported India‟s efforts for becoming a permanent

member of United Nation Security Council (UNSC) with full veto power

and also full member of SCO. To quote President Putin‟s remarks made

during his visit to India in 2010 when he was Russia‟s Premier, “India is

our candidate number one in terms of enlarging the geographical

representation of the Security Council.”85

Such a strong statement was made

to probably sustain India‟s old friendship that was under threat from the US

nuclear deal and the agreement for strategic partnership.86

India‟s earlier massive purchases and lease of Soviet military

equipment included 1000 T-90 tanks, two Akula-11 nuclear submarines,

INS Vikaramadtya aircraft carrier programme, four Tu-22M3 bombers, US

$900 million up-gradation of MiG-29, 80 Mi-17 helicopters, and six

Ilyushin IL-76 Candid to fit Israeli Phalcon radar in addition to agreements

signed for joint production of BrahMos cruise missile system, 5th generation

fighter jet programme, Sukhoi Su-30MK1 programme, and Ilyushin/HAL

Tactical Transport Aircraft which would need modernization, upgrading

and replacement.87

The two comprehensive arms sales agreements signed

between Russia and India in January 1993 and February 199688

remain the

bedrock of both countries‟ strong military relationship though due to India‟s

much changed geopolitical orientation towards the West, particularly the

US, Russia‟s status of being the main supplier of defence equipment is

likely to be lowered in the coming years.89

By the end of Yeltsin‟s

presidency, procurement of Russian weapons by India had reached 1.5

billion dollars a year.90

Therefore, despite the attraction of buying Western

military hardware India‟s arsenal is replete with an array of Russian

hardware that would retain Russia as India‟s largest defence partner for

years to come. Both countries have been cooperating in energy and space

programme also. This comprises joint exploration of oil and gas, provision

of two units of 1000 MW nuclear power plants at Kudankulam and

collaboration in outer space for peaceful purposes which can be used for

84

Ibid., 89. 85

“Putin Backs India‟s UN Seat Bid”, December 4, 2004,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4069453.stm. (accessed May 5, 2013). 86

Richard Weitz, “The Maturing of Russia-India Defence Relations”. 87

Ibid. 88

Ibid. 89

Ibid.,76. 90

Ibid., 78.


development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. An agreement to jointly

launch a proposed lunar exploration mission in 2013 was signed.91

India and Russia have taken some major steps to promote trade and

economic cooperation as well. The India-Russia Inter-Governmental

Commission on trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural

Cooperation (IRIGC) with six Joint Working Groups is functioning and is

co-chaired by the Indian External Affairs Minister and Russian Deputy

Prime Minister. The two countries have also set up India-Russia Forum on

trade and investment at the level of two Commerce Ministers to promote

trade, investment and economic cooperation. Both countries are aiming at

boosting mutual trade and achieving a target of $20 billion by 2015.92

With this robust strategic and military relationship with Russia,

India is in a position to influence the development of closer relations

between Pakistan and Russia, particularly progress in the military field in

the short term perspective. However, in view of India‟s growing relations

with the US and interest in purchasing its military hardware, India may not

succeed in this effort. Russia may argue since it has accepted India‟s

agreement of strategic partnership with the US it should also not object to

Russia‟s evolving friendship with Pakistan. Some Indian scholars are of the

view that India will have to live with Russia‟s growing relations with

Pakistan.93

Even India might have to contend with Russia providing military

hardware to Pakistan at some stage as it would be looking for other markets

to compensate for curtailed Indian demand. This was commented by a

Russian diplomat during the visit of the Russian Deputy Prime Minister,

Dmitry Rogozin to India in July 2012.94

In this context Ruslan Pukhov,

Director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies of

Russia and an analyst well connected to the Russian Ministry of Defence, in

an interview with Kommersant said, “Delhi‟s attempts to diversify its

supplies of new weapons- increasingly from Western countries-are making

Russia flinch. Moscow has explained to Delhi in no uncertain terms that it

can also diversify its military-technical ties by means of a rapprochement

with Pakistan.”95

This implies that despite India‟s opposition, it is more

91

India Space Programs and Exploration Handbook, (Washington, DC:

International Business Publications, 2011), 123. 92

Richard Weitz, “The Maturing of Russia-India Defence Relations”. 93

Sandeep Dikshit, “Growing Russia- Pakistan Ties a Reality that India Will Have

to Live With”. 94

Ibid. 95

Joshua Kucera, “Fearing Afghanistan, Russia Gets Closer to Pakistan”.

84 Muhammad Hanif likely that Pakistan-Russia relations will progress though gradually

expanding from economic cooperation to military collaboration.

The US

In view of the earlier stated US-Russia differences it seems the US might

like Pakistan to take its side in these conflicts rather than going to the other

side. As such Pakistan‟s close relations with Russia may not be to the liking

of the US. Already Putin‟s clear support for Pakistan‟s membership of SCO

is being viewed with doubts in the US about the likelihood of Pakistan‟s

slipping away from the US sphere of influence. Therefore, with no other

apparent reason but the strategic America may like to see a slow down in

the growth speed of this relationship.

China

Pakistan and China are very close friends with strategic cooperation in the

many micro and macro level economic projects and military related fields.

China has been steadfast in supporting Pakistan‟s role in the „war on terror‟.

It has firmly supported Pakistan in all matters in the United Nations Security

Council (UNSC). To assist Pakistan in withstanding US pressures for „doing

more‟ in the „war on terror‟, China‟s support for Pakistan‟s stance has been

strong. They have successfully resolved their border disputes and for the last

many years they have had close politico-economic and strategic

cooperation. In the recent times both have displayed very close coordination

and cooperation on the Syrian domestic conflict and Iran‟s nuclear

programme. In the light of their very warm relations China is likely to

welcome the development of close relations between Pakistan and Russia

barring the possibility of China and Russia‟s clash of economic interests in

Pakistan which the latter will have to guard against by being cognizant of

China‟s sensitivities regarding its commercial and strategic interests.

Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf States

Pakistan has very good long term relations with Saudi Arabia, United Arab

Emirates (UAE) and other Gulf states, all currently worried and concerned

about violence in Syria and the Asad regime‟s future. While the US, EU,

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are supporting the Syrian opposition and

want regime change; Iran, Russia and China are favouring a negotiated

settlement in Syria. Therefore Russia and China together have vetoed three

resolutions of the UNSC aimed at clamping sanctions and taking other


harder actions against Syria. On the other side, Saudi Arabia and GCC

countries are worried about Iran‟s suspected nuclear ambitions and are

supporting the US and EU on sanctions policy which, Russia and China

oppose. This regional tussle may have strained Arab ties with Russia.

Though the Arabs are not likely to obstruct Pakistan- Russia relations but

being Pakistan‟s strategic allies it behoves Pakistan to take these countries

into confidence on the necessity of getting closer to Russia.

Recommendations

The foregoing analysis shows that both Pakistan and Russia are convinced

and determined to better their relations despite constraints that are

nonetheless manageable. In this context the following recommendations

may be of interest to policy makers:

Pakistan should discuss with Russia on what role should both

countries play and coordinate their efforts to achieve early peace in

Afghanistan.

Pakistan should accord high priority to getting the Russian

President‟s visit to Pakistan rescheduled to an early date.

Provide incentives to Russia to attract its investment in energy

producing and import projects, steel mill, infrastructure

development and agriculture including water management.

Pakistan should aim at making Russia a long-term trading partner

and supplier of military hardware.

At an appropriate stage Pakistan should initiate a dialogue with

Russia to develop strategic partnership.

In this pursuit Pakistan should remain mindful of China and Saudi

Arabia‟s strategic and economic interests.

Pakistan may also extend assurance to the US its relations with

Russia will not hurt its strategic interests in the region.

Pakistan‟s relations with Russia should not be seen against any third

country.

Conclusion

After the Soviet disintegration in 1991 and in the post Cold War era both

Pakistan and Russia realized their past mistakes and initiated a process of

forging closer relations based on new strategic realities. However in the post

9/11 scenario, with Pakistan becoming part of the „global war on terror‟ and

abandoning its support for the Taliban rule, mutual trust between Pakistan

86 Muhammad Hanif and Russia improved and bilateral high level contacts picked up frequency.

Both sides saw their regional strategic and economic interests converging.

This convergence further crystallized after both countries‟ experience of the

‟war on terror‟ and the announcement of withdrawal of foreign force by

2014. Hence, the period from 2010 to 2012 saw very quick progress in

Pakistan- Russia understanding of the strategic need to get closer and work

for resolving the Afghan and other regional issues. Both states were also

attracted by the prospects of mutual economic cooperation after withdrawal.

During 2010-2012 frequent ministerial level visits were conducted

and strong desire of deepening bilateral ties was affirmed. Russian leaders

declared Pakistan as a key player in resolving Afghan conflict and

expressed keen interest in investing in various economic and energy projects

in Pakistan. Similarly Pakistan saw Russia as a strong regional partner and

source of future economic investment being the world‟s eighth largest

economy and the third major holder of foreign reserves in the Asia Pacific

region after China and Japan.96

Despite cancellation of Russian President

Putin‟s planned landmark visit to this country in October 2012 at short

notice, the immediate follow up visits of General Kayani to Russia and

Russian Foreign Minister to Pakistan strongly endorsed that the cancellation

did not have any negative implication on the progress of Pakistan-Russia

relations. Many political leaders, officials, scholars and former diplomats in

Russia, Pakistan and even in India believe that in the post withdrawal days,

Pakistan-Russia relations would grow more even in face of Indo-US tacit

opposition.

96

Roy Sultan Khan Bhatty and Nazima Shaheen, “Russia: Indispensable for

Central Asia”, Pakistan Horizon, vol. 64, no. 2, (April 2011): 56.

pakistan-russia relations: progress, prospects and constraints - the islamabad policy ... · 2015....

Documents