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GULF OIL LUBRICANTS INDIA LTDResult Update (PARENT BASIS): Q2 FY19

CMP: 814.00 DEC 21st, 2018

Overweight ISIN:INE635Q01029

Index Details SYNOPSISGulf Oil Lubricants India Limited (GOLIL), part ofHinduja Group, is an established player in Indianlubricant market.The company achieved a turnover growth of 29.19% atRs. 4172.14 mn for Q2 FY19 as against Rs. 3229.48mn in Q2 FY18.During the quarter, EBIDTA stood at Rs. 781.17 mn asagainst Rs. 657.47 mn in the corresponding period ofthe previous year, up by 18.82%.During Q2 FY19, PBT stood at Rs. 620.26 mn fromRs. 619.57 mn in Q2 FY18.During the quarter, net profit registered at Rs. 402.91mn against Rs. 404.20 mn in Q2 FY18.EPS of the company stood at Rs. 8.09 in Q2 FY19against Rs. 8.15 in the corresponding quarter of theprevious year.Net Revenue for H1 FY19 rose by 24.40% and stood atRs. 8075.74 mn against Rs. 6491.81 mn in H1 FY18.During H1 FY19, PAT of the company rose by 7.65%at Rs. 804.23 mn as compared to Rs. 747.09 mn in H1FY18.The Company continued its growth momentum duringQ2 recording a very robust volume growth of 22% inits core business (overall Q2 volume growth around30% including non- regular institutional sales duringthe quarter).Gulf Pride 4T Plus, its leading MCO brand was re-launched and the new pack with refreshed look andfeel hit retail shelves across the country.A new Endurance series of Greases was launchedunder the brand name of Gulf Crown with completelynew look and the Customer Value Proposition (CVP)of longer life.In a recent development, Tata Motors and Gulf Oilsigned an agreement to launch a range of cobrandedlubricants for its passenger vehicles segment in thebazaar segment.Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected togrow at a CAGR of 16% and 17% over 2017 to 2020E,respectively.

Stock DataSector Oil Marketing & DistributionBSE Code 538567Face Value 2.0052wk. High / Low (Rs.) 1095.00/618.00Volume (2wk. Avg.) 669Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) 40529.47

Annual Estimated Results(A*: Actual / E*: Estimated)Years(Rs. In mn) FY18A FY19E FY20ENet Sales 13784.40 16265.59 18542.77EBITDA 2618.21 3037.64 3445.34Net Profit 1585.57 1688.18 1901.04EPS 31.84 33.91 38.18P/E 25.56 24.01 21.32

Shareholding Pattern (%)

As on Sep 2018 As on June 2018

Promoter 72.74 72.88

Public 27.26 27.12

Others -- --

1 Year Comparative Graph

GULF OIL LUBRICANTS INDIA LTD S&P BSE SENSEX

PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS(TTM) P/E (X)(TTM) P/BV(X) DIVIDENDCompany Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)

Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd 814.00 40529.47 33.04 24.63 8.67 525.00

Castrol India Ltd 155.15 153462.30 7.01 22.13 15.05 140.00

Savita Oil Technologies Ltd 994.00 14236.20 78.11 12.73 1.92 25.00

Panama Petrochem Ltd 137.15 8296.70 7.04 19.48 2.41 60.00


QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (PARENT BASIS)

Results updates- Q2 FY19,

(Rs. In million) Sep-18 Sep-17 % Change

Revenue 4172.14 3229.48 29.19%

Net Profit 402.91 404.20 -0.32%

EPS 8.09 8.15 -0.67%

EBIDTA 781.17 657.47 18.82%

Gulf Oil Lubricants India Limited has achieved a turnover of 29.19% at Rs. 4172.14 million for the 2nd quarter of the FY

2018-19 as against Rs. 3229.48 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. During the 2nd quarter, net profit

stood at Rs. 402.91 million from Rs. 404.20 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year. Reported

earnings per share of the company stood at Rs. 8.09 in Q2 FY19 as against Rs. 8.15 in the corresponding quarter of the

previous year. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax stood at Rs. 781.17 million as against Rs. 657.47 million in the

corresponding period of the previous year, up by 18.82%.

Break up of Expenditure

Break up ofExpenditure

Value in Rs. Million

Q2 FY19 Q2 FY18%

Change

Cost of Materialsconsumed 2249.91 1470.14 53%

Purchase of Stock-in-Trade 185.64 96.01 93%

Employee BenefitExpenses 260.01 197.80 31%

Depreciation andAmortization Expenses 55.90 22.06 153%

Other Expenses 898.35 770.46 17%


Highlights:

Net Revenue for H1 FY19 rose by 24.40% and stood at Rs 8075.74 mn as against Rs. 6491.81 mn in H1 FY18.

During H1 FY19, PAT of the company rose by 7.65% at Rs. 804.23 mn as compared to Rs. 747.09 mn in H1 FY18.

Operating Highlights:

The Company continued its growth momentum during Q2 recording a very robust volume growth of 22% in its core

business (overall Q2 volume growth around 30% including non- regular institutional sales during the quarter).

Gulf Pride 4T Plus, its leading MCO brand was re-launched and the new pack with refreshed look and feel hit retail

shelves across the country. The re-launch generated a lot of buzz and garnered positive feedback from trade partners

and customers alike.

A new Endurance series of Greases was launched under the brand name of Gulf Crown with completely new look and

the Customer Value Proposition (CVP) of longer life.

Gulf's initiatives into Rural also continues to give strong returns with growths in ranges upwards of 50%.

The newly commissioned Chennai plant has secured the IGBC (Indian Green Building Council) Gold rating -

certifying the deployment of green concepts like deployment of solar panels and use of 100% natural light to save

electricity; sewage treatment plant and rainwater harvesting for water conservation etc - designed to reduce

environmental impacts in a measurable way at this facility.

Other Updates:

In a recent development, Tata Motors and Gulf Oil signed an agreement to launch a range of cobranded lubricants for

its passenger vehicles segment in the bazaar segment.

COMPANY PROFILE

Gulf Oil Lubricants India Limited (GOLIL), part of Hinduja Group, is an established player in Indian lubricant market. It

markets a wide range of automotive and industrial lubricants, greases, 2-wheeler batteries, etc. Today, the Gulf brand is

present in more than 100 countries across five continents with values of 'Quality, Endurance & Passion' as its core

attributes. The Gulf Oil International Group's core business is manufacturing and marketing an extensive range consisting

over 400 performance lubricants and associated products for all market segments.


FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (PARENT BASIS) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)

Balance Sheet as of March 31, 2017 -2020E

FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20EASSETS1) Non-Current Assets

a) Property, plant and equipment 1168.54 2584.52 2791.28 2958.75b) Capital Work in Progress 291.84 59.99 2.75 1.98c) Intangible Assets 11.20 16.33 13.06 10.71d) Financial Assets

i) Investments 37.21 41.52 45.68 49.33ii) Loans 12.90 14.67 12.47 11.22iii) Other Financial Assets 71.93 70.37 76.00 80.56

e) Other Non Current Assets (net) 43.45 9.93 208.45 325.18Sub - Total Non- Current Assets 1637.07 2797.33 2941.23 3112.56

2) Current Assetsa) Inventories 1499.30 2368.00 3267.85 4182.84b) Financial Assets

i) Trade Receivables 1096.16 1346.21 1655.84 1953.89ii) Cash and Cash Equivalents 2528.62 3210.14 3049.63 2958.14iii) Bank Balances other than Cash 367.11 51.71 374.45 479.30iv) Loans 8.83 9.35 12.45 15.94v) Other Financial Assets 7.19 23.79 17.13 14.04

c) Other Current Assets 237.88 482.76 569.65 655.10Sub - Total Current Assets 5745.09 7491.95 8946.99 10259.25

Total Assets (1+2) 7382.16 10289.28 11888.23 13371.80EQUITY AND LIABILITIES1) EQUITY

a) Equity Share Capital 99.27 99.40 99.58 99.58b) Other Equity 3442.02 4574.79 5718.49 6862.19

Total Equity 3541.29 4674.19 5818.07 6961.772) Non Current Liabilities

a) Financial Liabilitiesi) Borrowings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00ii) Other Financial Liabilities 16.37 5.82 6.11 5.01

b) Employee Benefit Obligation 26.70 24.30 25.51 26.28c) Deferred Tax Liabilities (net) 45.02 106.41 175.58 242.30d) Deferred Government Grants 0.00 18.07 15.36 14.13Sub - Total Non Current Liabilities 88.09 154.60 222.56 287.71

3) Current Liabilitiesa) Financial Liabilities

i) Borrowings 1784.89 2480.64 2416.55 2295.72ii) Trade Payables 1330.79 2228.58 2406.87 2542.76iii) Other financial liabilities 292.95 436.92 533.05 639.66

b) Employee Benefit Obligation 9.28 6.66 8.99 11.51c) Current Tax Liability 55.82 123.82 229.07 309.25c) Deferred Government Grants 0.00 2.01 2.11 2.19d) Other Current Liabilities 279.05 181.86 250.97 321.24Sub - Total Current Liabilities 3752.78 5460.49 5847.60 6122.32

Total Equity and Liabilities (1+2+3) 7382.16 10289.28 11888.23 13371.80


Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2017 to 2020E

Value(Rs.in.mn) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E

Description 12m 12m 12m 12mNet Sales 12597.63 13784.40 16265.59 18542.77Other Income 203.50 260.99 300.14 330.15Total Income 12801.13 14045.39 16565.73 18872.92

Expenditure -10819.56 -11427.18 -13528.09 -15427.58

Operating Profit 1981.57 2618.21 3037.64 3445.34Interest -98.25 -85.31 -245.50 -297.06

Gross profit 1883.32 2532.89 2792.14 3148.28Depreciation -72.50 -104.33 -196.14 -223.60

Profit Before Tax 1810.82 2428.56 2595.99 2924.68Tax -635.27 -842.99 -907.82 -1023.64

Net Profit 1175.55 1585.57 1688.18 1901.04Equity capital 99.27 99.58 99.58 99.58Reserves 3442.02 4574.79 5718.49 6862.19

Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

EPS 23.68 31.84 33.91 38.18

Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 31st Mar, 2018 to 31st Dec, 2018E

Value(Rs.in.mn) 31-Mar-18 30-June-18 30-Sep-18 31-Dec-18E

Description 3m 3m 3m 3mNet sales 3733.11 3903.60 4172.14 4422.47

Other income 70.80 66.37 67.07 72.43

Total Income 3803.91 3969.97 4239.21 4494.90

Expenditure -3104.28 -3258.50 -3458.04 -3678.17

Operating profit 699.63 711.47 781.17 816.74

Interest -27.61 -44.02 -105.01 -68.26

Gross profit 672.01 667.45 676.16 748.48

Depreciation -37.16 -49.48 -55.90 -59.25

Profit Before Tax 634.86 617.97 620.26 689.23

Tax -221.30 -216.65 -217.35 -240.82

Net Profit 413.56 401.32 402.91 448.41

Equity capital 99.40 99.40 99.58 99.58

Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

EPS 8.32 8.07 8.09 9.01


Ratio Analysis

Particulars FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E

EPS (Rs.) 23.68 31.84 33.91 38.18

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.73% 18.99% 18.68% 18.58%

PBT Margin (%) 14.37% 17.62% 15.96% 15.77%

PAT Margin (%) 9.33% 11.50% 10.38% 10.25%

P/E Ratio (x) 34.37 25.56 24.01 21.32

ROE (%) 33.20% 33.92% 29.02% 27.31%

ROCE (%) 35.84% 35.13% 34.51% 34.80%

Debt Equity Ratio 0.50 0.53 0.42 0.33

EV/EBITDA (x) 19.83 15.18 13.01 11.43

Book Value (Rs.) 71.35 93.88 116.85 139.82

P/BV 11.41 8.67 6.97 5.82

Charts


OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION

At the current market price of Rs. 814.00, the stock P/E ratio is at 24.01 x FY19E and 21.32 x FY20E respectively.

Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY19E and FY20E is seen at Rs. 33.91 and Rs. 38.18

respectively.

Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 17% over 2017 to 2020E,

respectively.

On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 13.01 x for FY19E and 11.43 x for FY20E.

Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 6.97 x and 5.82 x for FY19E and FY20E respectively.

Hence, we say that, we are Overweight in this particular scrip for Medium to Long term investment.

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

India follows the US and China to be the third largest lubricant market globally. It is one of the fastest-growing lubricant

markets in the world. The Indian lubricant market can be broadly classified under the three heads of automotive, industrial

and process/white oils. Process oils constitute one-third of the total lube market. Automotive and industrial together form

two-thirds of the market in terms of volume, followed by industrial oils such as transmission and hydraulic fluids, general

industrial oils, gear oils, greases and so on. Automotive engine oils form the largest pie of the Indian lubricant market,

excluding process oils.

India’s lubricant market constitutes over 20 organised players, including the MNCs, public sector oil marketing

companies and other domestic companies. The market is dominated by the public sector oil marketing companies. In

recent years, though, private players have started growing rapidly owing to their expanding reach and highly innovative

products and services. This trend is likely to continue in the future as well. Encouraging prospects of the rural economy,


focus on energy efficiency, higher brand consciousness and continuous advancement of engine technology are some

macro enablers that will contribute to the growth of India’s lubricant market in the future.

Automotive segment

Automotive lubricants dominate the lubricant market in India, with specialised applications for Commercial Vehicles

(CV), Passenger Vehicles (PV) and two-wheelers. Diesel Engine Oils (DEO) lead the automotive lubricant market as they

alone form about 45% of the total market, followed by Motorcycle Oils (MCO) and Passenger Car Motor Oils (PCMO).

The demand for automotive lubricants is a direct function of vehicle movement on the roads, as well as growth of vehicle

population and automobile sales, which have grown rapidly in recent years.

India’s production of vehicles crossed the 29-million mark during FY 2017-18. For the first time, the country’s PV and

utility vehicle production crossed the 4-million mark each. These numbers indicate the inherent durability in the domestic

demand for automobiles. The country’s automobile sales grew at a rapid pace during FY 2017-18 and India overtook

Germany as the fourth largest global automotive market, right behind China, the US and Japan.

This is commendable, especially when viewed in the context of the setback arising from the inventory realignment

undertaken post the implementation of the GST. The industry revived quickly from the transitory pain witnessed by

distributors post GST implementation and registered a healthy double-digit growth of 14% during the year. Normal

monsoon aided rural income during the year, thereby bolstering demand for two-wheelers, which grew at a healthy pace

of 14.8%. This trend rubbed-off favourably on the sale of MCO in the lubricant industry.

On one hand, tractor sales too benefited from a buoyant rural economy and grew 22% during FY 2017-18. While on the

other hand, continued government push to the infrastructure sector, healthy momentum in the road construction and

mining sectors as well as improving demand from the e-commerce and Fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sectors

facilitated the growth of CV during FY 2017-18. This momentum was reflected in DEO sales, which bounced back during

the year.

Growing in strong double digits, compact cars were at the forefront of the overall PV segment. Stable interest rates also

supported the overall demand for PV in the year gone by. Consequently, PCMO witnessed healthy traction in sales.

Industrial segment

The industrial lubricant segment comprises hydraulic fluids, metal working fluids, greases and industrial gear oil. These

products are used in the construction, manufacturing, textile, power generation, mining, food processing, light-heavy

engineering, marine operations and metal working sectors.

Demand for industrial lubricant depends on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and overall growth trends in the

economy. Besides, the demand for high-performance lubricants in the industrial segment is driven by the criticality of the

application in which they are used, such as compressors, textile machinery, windmills, captive power plants, among

others.


Infrastructure segment

The infrastructure segment can be classified separately as it leads the demand for both industrial and automotive

lubricants through products finding application in both on-highway vehicles and off-highway construction equipment.

Government Initiatives:

The Government of India has implemented multiple reforms and policies to facilitate and expedite the growth of the

infrastructure sector in both rural and urban areas. This, in turn, will lead to improved demand for lubricants from the

infrastructure sector.

Some of the key policy measures aiding the prospects of this sector include:

Higher spending towards infrastructure through various road projects under the Ministry of Road [including

National Highways Authority of India (NHAI)] and the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana

In the Union Budget of 2018-19, Rs. 71,00,000 lakhs was allocated for the construction of national highways

across the nation

The Sagarmala Programme (involving investments worth around Rs. 8.5 trillion) to set up new mega ports, drive

modernisation of India’s existing ports and facilitate the development of 14 Coastal Employment Zones (CEZs)

and Coastal Employment Units Adoption of new models such as the Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) to propel

investments into the sector

Implementation of various power sector reforms Modification of the Mines and Mineral Development and

Regulation (MMDR) Act to bring higher transparency

In conclusion, improving prospects of the infrastructure sector will benefit the domestic lubricant market.

Companies having wider reach and significant positioning in the lubricant sector and focusing on innovation are

well placed to benefit from the improving health of the infrastructure sector.

Opportunities

Robust prospects of India’s automobile sector and overall economic growth

Adoption of new emission norms and enhanced focus on fuel efficiency

Evolving technology as well as customer requirements

Significant potential to ramp up rural penetration of automobiles

Scope to improve the Company’s market share in the PV and tractor segments

Expansion of the Company’s reach across various channels and geographies


Outlook

Automotive segment

The Indian automotive industry is set to further improve its performance and 2018-19 is expected to bring positive

sentiments back into the market and rev up overall vehicle sales. A buoyant rural economy, presence of multiple enablers

for consumption demand and a favourable monetary policy environment would aid the prospects of the automotive sector

in the medium term. Accordingly, the overall lubricant demand is expected to improve in the current year.

Personal mobility

The growth in two-wheeler population is expected to continue in 2018-19, with scooters slated to deliver a better

performance. the company will continue to strengthen its already prominent position in the MCO segment. The industry

also forecasts a high sales growth in PV, with both utility vehicles and cars growing in the domestic market.

This, along with the increasing adoption of high-value synthetic and semi-synthetic grades of oil and expanding footprint

in the rural segment, will be the main growth catalysts of the personal mobility segment. PCMO is ahigh-potential

category and the company will continue its focus to garner additional market share in PCMO by tapping into these

opportunities efficiently.

The investments made by Company in various brand initiatives such as the Manchester United campaign will also start

yielding results this year. Company is looking to ramp up its independent workshop programme ‘Gulf Car Stops’ to

further boost its market share in this category.

The Company is confident of delivering higher volume growth than the market in the personal mobility segment and

further enhance its market share, going forward.


Disclosure Section

The information and opinions in Firstcall Research was prepared by our analysts and it does not constitute an offer orsolicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument including any companies scrips or this is not an officialconfirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available secondary sources and dataor other secondary sources believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should notbe relied on as such. Firstcall Research or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damagethat may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Firstcall Research and/or its affiliates and/or employees will not be liable for the recipients’ investment decision based on this document.

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The following analysts hereby state that their views about the companies and sectors are on best effort basis to the best oftheir knowledge. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts. Theanalyst qualifications, sectors covered and their exposure if any are tabulated hereunder:

Name of the Analyst Qualifications SectorsCovered

Exposure/Interest tocompany/sector UnderCoverage in the CurrentReport

Dr.C.V.S.L. Kameswari M.Sc, PGDCA,M.B.A,Ph.D (Finance)

Pharma &Diversified

No Interest/ Exposure

U. Janaki Rao M.B.A CapitalGoods


B. Anil Kumar M.B.A Auto, IT &FMCG


V. Harini Priya M.B.A Diversified No Interest/ Exposure

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