Reflections on the 58th Annual Conference

Iwrite today to thank AAPOR’s mem-bers for giving me the opportunity to

plan the 58th Annual Conference for theAssociation – it was an honor and apleasure.

I especially thank the membership forgiving me the opportunity to take somechances, to move the conference in somenew directions, and to allow our discus-sions to take on some important but dif-ficult issues. My attempts at innovationcertainly stirred some controversy,which made the experience all the morechallenging. But in the end, it appearsthat all turned out reasonably well and, Ihope, will help the community of surveyresearch professionals to feel an evenstronger bond, a more powerful sense ofcollective mission and importance, and aclearer sense of our potential for con-structive impact.

In this essay, I offer some reflections ontwo of the principal themes addressed byconference events: survey responserates, and criticisms of our work by out-side observers.

Response Rates: Too ManyQuestion MarksFor a handful of years, it has seemed toall of us in survey research that responserates pose a substantial challenge to ourwork. A series of factors have made itmore difficult to contact potentialrespondents, driving up costs. Duringthe same time period, respondents’ will-ingness to participate in surveys hasdeclined slightly. Taken together, theseshifts have led to lower response ratesthan those of twenty years ago.

Yet our understanding of this phenome-non seemed to me to be relatively super-ficial in at least two regards. First, veryfew detailed and systematic studies havereported long term, interpretable track-ing of response rates. Without suchanalyses, we cannot understand why anyapparent trends are occurring. At thesimplest level, the vast majority of sur-veys conducted each year are publicizedwithout reporting response rates or theircomponents. So it has been very difficult,even for centrally involved professionals,

to know what rates our peers wereachieving and why.

Second, we have very little understand-ing of the factors that affect responserates in naturally occurring surveys.Many studies have experimentally variedstudy aspects and measured the impactof these changes on response rates. Butan important complement to theseexperiments must be a thorough study ofthe natural covariation of study charac-teristics with response rates. This sort ofwork has been very rarely publicized.

Most importantly, our field has had verylittle scientific evidence available withwhich to assess the impact of loweredresponse rates on survey accuracy. Asmall handful of recent, and oft-cited,studies have shown that a reduced

AAPOR NewsVolume 31, Number 2 American Association for Public Opinion Research Summer 2003

ss ss s

RESPONSE RATES, HUFFINGTON, AND MORE

THISIssueIN

The President’s Column 2

Dillman and Stanton 2003 AAPOR Award Winners 3

AAPOR 2004 Phoenix! 5

Chapter News 6

Fun and Games at Nashville Conference 8

Award Renamed in Honor of Sudman 9

Crossword Puzzle 9

Federal Do-Not-Call Registry Exempts Surveys 10

Faces of AAPOR 11

continued on page 4

By Jon A. Krosnick, 2003 Conference Chair

Huffington takes the pledge at AAPOR

Expert respondentstop left to right:Robert Shapiro,Roger Tourangeau,and Richard MorinBy Steve Everett

AAPOR NEWS2

As has been true in each of the 30 years I’ve been attending, I found

this year’s annual conference extremelystimulating. I left Nashville with threemain take-home points, ideas that willmotivate my term as president.

The first: We ought to pay more atten-tion to, and take more responsibility for,the uses and interpretations of the survey and polling data we produce.

In a heavily attended plenary session,Arianna Huffington took us to task for:silly polls; meaningless or superficialpolls about weighty questions, such asgoing to war; and misuses of poll data bythe media and politicians.

And in his presidential address, MarkSchulman said that we undervalue theimpact of our research, and advised us toplace more weight on the relevance of asurvey to real decisions.

What might we do differently if we tooktheir comments seriously? We might:

• promote critical discussion in AAPOR,and in other public forums, about theuses to which our data are being put—both good uses and bad uses.

• communicate purposes and uses torespondents, and–what amounts tothe same thing–to the public, toimprove public understanding andacceptance of surveys.

• marry substantive and methodologicalperspectives in our own profession, toovercome what may be a too narrow,technical focus by some of us on themethodological side.

• contextualize results in public discus-sions of public opinion—to place themin historical context and interpretthem in the light of other beliefs andattitudes, rather than in isolation.Some of the misuses involve narrowfocus on single questions, for examplehorserace questions or questionsabout presidential popularity.

A second ideaI took awayfrom themany sessionson nonre-sponse wasthat AAPORneeds to continue to be proactive in pro-moting survey quality and disclosure.

We’ve made progress in the past fewyears on the disclosure of response rates,thanks in large part to the able work ofthe individuals who have developedAAPOR’s standard response rate defini-tions (and whose contribution was rec-ognized with AAPOR’s Innovator’sAward, given this year to Tom Smith,Rob Daves, and Paul Lavrakas). There isstill work to be done to improve ourrecord on disclosure, and we face diffi-cult and troubling questions about theimpact of declining response rates onthe data and the viability of the surveyenterprise. I was struck by Rich Curtin’sgraph showing the steady downwardmarch of response rates for theConsumer Sentiment Survey over thedecades. It led me to wonder, ‘How muchlonger will survey research be a viableenterprise?’ and ‘Should AAPOR moreactively seek to address response rateissues, perhaps by facilitating or fundingresearch needed to assess the impact ofnonresponse on survey validity?’

A third area where I believe AAPORcould usefully play a more active role ispre-election polling. Unlike most sur-veys, pre-election forecasts may bejudged against an external criterion ofvalidity – the actual outcome of an election. Thus, the performance of pre-election polls in forecasting electionsmay shape public perceptions of theaccuracy of surveys more generally.AAPOR has an interest in the quality andcredibility of their results and methods.Last year, Council established a commit-tee (chaired by Michael Traugott) toreview the methodology used in pre-

AAPOR News American Association

for Public Opinion Research

Editor Claudia DeaneAssociate Editor Daniel Merkle

AAPOR News is a publication of AAPOR, P. O. Box 14263, Lenexa, KS 66285-4263

Phone: (913) 310-0118 • Fax: (913) 599-5340 E-mail: AAPOR-info@goAMP.com

For express mail: 8310 Nieman Road, Lenexa, KS 66214-1579

www.AAPOR.Org

2003-2004 AAPOR Executive Council President

Elizabeth (Betsy) Martin,U. S. Census Bureau

Vice President/President-ElectNancy Belden, Belden Russonello & Stewart

Past PresidentMark A. Schulman, Schulman,

Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc.

Secretary/TreasurerAllan L. McCutcheon,

University of Nebraska-Lincoln Associate: Sandra H. Berry,

RAND Survey Research Group

Standards CommitteeRoger Tourangeau, University of Maryland

Associate: Mick P. Couper, University of Maryland

Conference CommitteeRobert P. Daves, Star Tribune Associate: Tom W. Smith,

National Opinion Research Center

Membership & Chapter RelationsPatricia Moy, University of Washington

Associate: Mollyann Brodie, The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation

Publications & InformationClaudia Deane, The Washington Post

Associate: Daniel M. Merkie, ABC News

Councilors-at-Large Janice M. Ballou,

Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Robert M. Groves, University of Michigan

Executive CoordinatorMichael P. Flanagan,

Applied Measurement Professionals, Inc.

Send your newsletter ideas and submissions to deanec@washpost.com. To join AAPORnet, send a short e-mail message to AAPOR-info@goAMP.com.

Copyright © 2003, American Association forPublic Opinion Research. All rights reserved. Nopart of this Newsletter may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means electronicor mechanical, including photocopying, recordingor by any information storage and retrieval systemwithout express written permission from thepublisher.

President’s ColumnBy Elizabeth (Betsy) Martin

THE

Betsy Martin

continued on page 12

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3SUMMER 2003

Dillman and Stanton

By Mark Schulman, Past President

2003 AAPOR Award Winners

The 2003 AAPOR Awards for Excep-tionally Distinguished Achievement

recognized two true survey pioneers,Don Dillman and retired CBS PresidentFrank Stanton. The awards were con-ferred at the AAPOR Conference AwardsBanquet in Nashville on May 17.

Dillman’s work has transformed thepractice of mail and self-administeredsurveys. Stanton’s achievements includenot only his pioneering work in mediaresearch, but his championing ofresearch at CBS as well.

Don Dillman and TDM

Dillman’s “Total Design Method,” firstformulated in his 1978 book, Mail andTelephone Surveys: The Total DesignMethod, is widely regarded as the “Bible”of mail and self-administered surveys.The Washington State University profes-sor has authored nine books and hun-dreds of articles and papers.

Dillman’s award also recognized his con-tributions to our profession beyond hispublications. In 1970, he was foundingcoordinator of the Social and EconomicSciences Research Center (SESRC) atWashington State, one of the first uni-versity-based telephone survey laborato-ries in the United States.

From 1991 – 1995, Dillman served asSenior Survey Methodologist in the

Office of the Director, U.S. Bureau of theCensus, where he provided leadership forthe development of new questionnairedesigns and procedures for the 2000Decennial Census and other governmentsurveys. This and related work on otherfederal agency surveys led to his receiv-ing the Roger Herriot Award for innova-tion in federal statistics in September2000.

His award plaque noted that “Don’s‘Total Design Method’ has now evolvedinto the ‘Tailored Design Method.’ ”Whatever follows in the ‘TDM’ tradition,we can be assured that the “TotalDillman Method” will always stand forrigor, dedication and integrity.

Frank Stanton’s “Radio Project”

Stanton’s achievements began in thepioneering days of survey research in the1930s. His groundbreaking doctoralresearch, completed in 1935, was one ofthe first investigations into why peoplereact positively to certain radio showsbut negatively to others. He launched hiscareer that year in the fledgling CBSaudience research department. He estab-lished research as an integral componentof news reporting and corporate strategy.

In 1937, Stanton and Hadley Cantrilsecured Rockefeller Foundation fundingto conduct seminal media research for

what came to be called the “RadioProject.” Stanton and Cantril recruitedthe Viennese social psychologist PaulLazarsfeld to direct the project. Stantonwas largely responsible for one of theproject’s crowning achievements, theStanton-Lazarsfeld Program Analyzer.“Little Annie” — a media audienceresearch tool still in use today — trans-formed radio, film, and ultimately televi-sion programming.

During his long tenure as President ofCBS, 1946-1971, Stanton nurturedresearch and established a highly prolificdepartment, headed by Joseph Klapper,to study the effects of mass media on thepublic. He established written surveyreporting standards at CBS News toensure that all reported surveys methigh quality standards.

The CBS presence at AAPOR goes back toAAPOR’s early years, beginning with oursecond president, Elmo Wilson. Inspiredby the Stanton tradition, five AAPORpresidents and many AAPOR officershave come from CBS.

Stanton’s AAPOR award plaque read,“Were it not for his even greater andovershadowing achievements asPresident of CBS, Inc., he would havebeen recognized by AAPOR long beforetoday.” A video tribute to Stanton, as well as an audio recording of his long-distance acceptance of the award, areavailable at www.aapor.org.

This year’s AAPOR Award Committeemembers were: Mark Schulman, EleanorSinger, Norman Bradburn, DianeColasanto, Clyde Tucker and KathyFrankovic. ss

Don Dillman By Steve Everett

CBS President Frank Stanton Courtesy CBS News

4 AAPOR NEWS

response rate causes little or no declinein survey accuracy, but we need muchmore such work to bolster our under-standing of this phenomenon.

The volume of work reported on thistopic at the conference was truly impres-sive, and included papers by some of thefield’s top scholars. I was able to hearonly a small subset of these presenta-tions personally, but they were power-fully consistent in making the case thatwhile response rates are generally lowernow than they have been, some studiescontinue to achieve remarkably highresponse rates. And, a range of effectivetechniques are available for us to use toincrease response rates considerably ifwe wish to expend resources to do so.But much evidence suggested that lowerresponse rates are not in fact associatedwith notably decreased survey accuracy,certainly a reassuring finding, but onethat demands more study and a betterunderstanding of why this findingobtains and whether it may not undersome realistic conditions. I hope the fieldwill take steps to be sure the wisdomgained will see its way into print andbecome a permanent part of our profes-sional archive.

Inviting HuffingtonA second major theme of the conferencewas the credibility of our profession in

the eyes of the principal consumers ofour work. There has been no shortage ofcriticism of surveys over the years, andyet our sponsors continue to commissionwork from us. Under such circum-stances, it is easy to see why many of uswould be tempted to ignore our critics,believing their complaints fall on deafears or are universally viewed as lackingveracity.

But I believe such a passive approach isdangerous for survey research whenthere is at least one kernel of truth to thecritics’ complaints.

Our profession can do more to take onour critics, to help them understand theintricacies of our methodologies, and toexplain why what might appear to bevery damaging critiques of surveys arenot in fact so. I therefore wanted to pro-gram events to inspire thoughtful analy-sis of the subject.

Certainly the most controversial suchevent was the invitation I extended toArianna Huffington to speak at one ofthe plenary sessions. Huffington is awidely-known pundit and author who,along with co-leader Harry Shearer, isheading a “Crusade” to end polling. Arough summary of her arguments:

1) Politicians are slaves to polls – theywon’t do anything unless a poll shows

continued from page 1

September 17-19, 2003Prague, Czech Republic

Annual Conference

February 23-24, 2004Manila, Philippines

Regional Conference in Asia

Some key dates for the World Association for Public Opinion Research, including future seminars and thenext annual meeting:

Upcoming WAPOR Events

May 11-13, 2004Phoenix, Arizona (USA)

Annual Conference (jointly with AAPOR)Pointe Hilton Tapatio Cliffs Resort

June 24-26, 2004Cadenabbia, Italy

“Quality Criteria in Survey Research” Thematic Seminar

Reflections on the 58th Annual ConferenceRESPONSE RATES, HUFFINGTON, AND MORE that the public supports that course

of action.

2) But polls are unreliable, because (a)response rates are low, (b) questionwording can affect answers, (c) ques-tion order can affect answers, (d)some respondents make up answerssuperficially to get off the phonequickly, (e) respondents are reluctantto acknowledge socially undesirableopinions, (f) a single closed-endedquestion cannot reveal the richnessand texture of public preferences, and(g) a cagey researcher can manipulatesample selection or weighting to alterresults.

3) More concern is justified by the factthat survey researchers hide theirresponse rates. If they had nothing tohide, why hide them?

4) Therefore, politicians should ignorepolls, use solid values to envision sen-sible courses of action for govern-ment, and be strong leaders.

5) But politicians are too afraid to dothat. So they kowtow to polls.

6) The only way to inspire politicians tobe real leaders is to cut off polls attheir source: Stop them from beingconducted at all.

Many of us would disagree with the bot-tom line of this argument, but I couldunderstand why a person outside of ourfield would offer the criticisms containedin point two above. Yet it is very difficultto find powerful, data-based responses tosuch criticisms in print.

➠

5SUMMER 2003

AAPOR 2004 PHOENIX!

AAPOR’s “meeting place” will return to the Sonoran desert May 13-16, 2004, for the 59th Annual Conference at the PointeHilton Tapatio Cliffs Resort. As AAPOR has grown, so has its need for larger facilities. The Arizona resort’s hotel will bebetter able to meet our members’ needs than hotels in recent years.

The conference committee will be examining your responses to the post-conference survey to build on the successes of thisyear’s conference. If you have suggestions or comments for the 2004 conference, you can send them to conference programchair Rob Daves at daves@startribune.com.

Meanwhile, save the date! ss

By Rob Daves, Conference Chair

I believe it is our responsibility to for-mulate those answers and to educate thepublic about the value and validity ofour work, rather than essentially askingthe public to give us the benefit of thedoubt.

I invited Huffington to speak at our ple-nary so that (1) our members could hearher articulate her views first hand, (2)some of our industry’s leaders would beinspired to formulate and express theirmost compelling and reassuringresponses to her criticisms, and (3) ourmembership could then judge for them-selves whether the responses were suffi-ciently compelling or whether theymade clear the need for more researchto understand the phenomena in ques-tion.

By many accounts, the event was themost well-attended plenary in AAPOR’s

history (filling the huge ballroom tonear capacity), and the full audienceremained in the room until the very endof the evening. Casual conversationsand AAPORnet postings afterward sug-gested that the audience was stimulatedin many constructive ways by the inter-change between Huffington and thepanel of expert respondents (in additionto being entertained by Huffington’s witand charm). I am not in a position tocharacterize whether the event was asuccess, but I hope Rob Daves’s post-conference survey will be able to do soin an objective and detailed way.

More importantly, I hope that theevening will lead all AAPOR members tolisten a little more carefully to our crit-ics and to think carefully in assemblingcompelling, data-based responses tothem. I also hope it highlighted thepotential benefits of having an open flow

of communication between our profes-sion and the consumers of our work, sothat we can continue giving voices tomembers of democratic societies andmonitoring the quality of life now and inthe future.

A final note: Huffington’s appearancewas only one small part of a larger andricher conference program. It included194 oral paper presentations, 6 roundta-bles, 101 poster presentations, and 57interactive paper presentations. Totalattendance at the conference was 763people, and there were 341 registrationsfor short courses. Clearly, this was a bigevent for AAPOR, and again, I am grate-ful for having had the opportunity toserve the Association as program chair.Thank you! ss

toward an integration of chapter web-sites.

If you have any ideas or would like tobecome more involved, please feel free tocontact me at pmoy@u.washington.edu,or contact an officer in your local AAPORchapter. ss

– Patricia Moy, Membership andChapter Relations Chair

New YorkChapter(NYAAPOR)New York’s AAPORChapter had an active,fun, and successful year.After a tough post-9/11year, the chapter’s mem-bership rebounded,thanks to the efforts ofMembership ChairGraham Hueber andAssociate MembershipChair Diana Pollich.Mickey Blum, our inde-fatigable Councilor-at-Large, spearheaded a

Chapter News6 AAPOR NEWS

AAPOR MembershipGrowingThe numbers are in! AAPOR’s post-conference figures indicate that the number of members in all sectors – academia, industry, government, andnonprofit – is at an all-time high. Theproportion of members in each sector hasshifted slightly to include more academicmembers, reflecting a marked (nearly 50percent) increase in the number of student members.

AAPOR regional chapters are flourishingas well. The New York and WashingtonDC/Baltimore chapters continue toattract members. After a strong member-ship drive this past year, the New Jerseychapter has grown considerably and nowstands at over 90 members. The NewEngland, Midwest, Southern, and Pacificchapters, all of which hold annual confer-ences, remain strong. That membershipremains, at the very least, stable is nosmall feat given the recent economicdownturn.

AAPOR’s Membership and ChapterRelations Committee will be working thisyear on sustaining and increasing mem-bership, both at the national and chapterlevels. In addition, we will be workingwith chapter liaisons to update bylaws,discuss chapter incorporation, and work

campaign to enlist corporate and individ-ual sponsors. That successful effort con-siderably helped defray expenses, to therelief of Treasurer Annie Weber. MarjorieConnolly, Communications Chair, con-tinued to develop our fledgling website(www. nyaapor.org), which now boasts anumber of great features: informationabout our programs, with snapshots;information about our sponsors; andeven the speech given by WarrenMitofsky when he received NYAAPOR’sDistinguished Achievement Award lastJuly.

We hosted a number of fascinating andwell-attended programs on a wide rangeof topics, all put together by ProgramChair Sarah Dutton and AssociateProgram Chair Ariela Keysar. Programssince the last newsletter include: abrown-bag lunch session and a workshopon public speaking by Dan Broden(Ketchum Public Relations); an eveningsession about the 2000 Census withDoug Muzzio (Baruch College), AndyBeveridge (Queens College), and JoeSalvo (NYC Department of Planning);and an evening session entitled “Is BigBrother Watching? Americans’ AttitudesToward Privacy,” with Gary Langer (ABCNews), Eleanor Singer (University ofMichigan), Sandra Bauman (BaumanResearch and Consulting), and DavidKrane (Harris Interactive). MichaelKagay, Director of Polling at the NewYork Times, received the NYAAPORDistinguished Award at this year’s finalmeeting (watch for his speech on ourwebsite).

In short, it was a dynamic and stimulat-ing year, all ably recorded by SecretaryMichael Butterworth, and presided overby the Council’s President, CorinneKirchner, whose wise and kind leadershiphelped make 2002-2003 a great success.Jo Holz, Past President, shepherded theelection process, with the new Council tobe announced in our next report. ss

– Geoff Feinberg

Chapter News

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ss ss s

2,000 –

1,900 –

1,800 –

1,700 –

1,600 –

1,500 –

1,400 –

1,300 –

1,200 –

1,100 –

1,000 –

ssssssssss

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

1,833

1,611

1,496

1,5931,5711,5141,482

1,4221,4181,420

34%

40%

8%

10%

8%

■ Academic

■ Commercial

■ Government

■ Non-profit

■ Other/Missing

2003 Membership

10 years of AAPOR membership...a long way from 194members in 1947!

7SUMMER 2003

Midwest Chapter(MAPOR)“Public Opinion in Crisis” is the themefor MAPOR’s annual conference to beheld November 21-22, 2003, in Chicagoat the Radisson Hotel & Suites (120 E.Huron). The theme refers to the wayspublic opinion functions during times ofwar and other crises, and it also reflectsthe current climate for polling. Studentsshould take advantage of the MAPORFellows Student Paper Competition. A$200 prize is awarded to the top studentpaper. The winner, and any studentsawarded “honorable mention,” receivesfree conference registration and a freeticket to the MAPOR luncheon on Friday.To participate, students whose abstractsare accepted must complete their papersand submit them by postal mail byOctober 1 to Mark Miller (mark@mmmiller.com), Fellows Coordinator.For more information, see the MAPORwebsite: www.MAPOR.org. ss

– Julie Andsager

Washington DC/Baltimore Chapter (DCAAPOR)The record cold, rain, and snow notwith-standing, the DC/Baltimore Chapter ofAAPOR had a wonderfully productivespring, successfully holding elections,hosting Executive Council meetings,scheduling seminars and social events,and thinking about new and better waysof bringing the AAPOR experience tolocal area students.

Congratulations to the newly elected2004 Council — Paul Beatty (VicePresident and President Elect), EileenO’Brien (Associate Program Chair),Diane Willimack (Associate Secretary/Membership Chair), and Michael Cohen(Associate Treasurer). We were very for-tunate to have an outstanding slate ofcandidates this year, and are thrilled to beworking with this great new group ofCouncil members!

The DC/Baltimore Chapter was happy tohost the 2003 AAPOR Executive Councilmeeting in March, preceded the evening

before by a well-attended happy hour for local members and friends. Photos areon the DC-AAPOR website: www.dc-aapor.org.

This spring, local members had a chanceto see a superb series of lunchtime semi-nars. In February, Carolyn L. Funk dis-cussed the impact of the surveyintroduction on respondents, followed bya talk by Bob Groves in April on inter-viewer falsification and scientific miscon-duct. In May, Brian Harris-Kojetin andKaren Lee presented insights into theOMB clearance process for survey infor-mation collections, and in June, DC-AAPOR co-sponsored the Second Seminaron the Funding Opportunity in SurveyResearch at the Bureau of LaborStatistics.

The DC/Baltimore Chapter is excited tojoin other chapters in holding an annualpaper competition for local area students.We are currently in the planning stages,but very hopeful to have the program upand running this coming fall. We arelooking for a few volunteers to join our“planning committee” – if interested,please contact Dawn Nelson atdawn.v.nelson@census.gov. ss

– Adam Safir

New England Chapter(NEAAPOR) The New England Chapter held its eighthannual conference on April 4, 2003, atthe historic Longfellow’s Wayside Inn, inSudbury, Massachusetts. With lit fire-places, and a traditional New Englandluncheon of chicken-pot pie and Yankeepot roast, a captive crowd enjoyed a fullprogram featuring several dynamic pre-sentations, including the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey (NAES)Project, by Ken Winneg, Kate Kenski,and Dannagal Goldthwait; Thomas E.Patterson of Harvard University’s TheVanishing Voter project; Al Leighton ofthe Muskie School discussed research onrefusal conversion; and NEAAPOR mem-ber David Moore presented the very latestGallup findings on American public opin-ion of the Iraq War—which had literallyjust begun. In addition, Marc Maynard ofthe Roper Center paid a special tribute toNEAAPOR’s first honorary LifetimeMember, the late Bud Roper.

Every year after AAPOR’s annual Mayconference, we usher in a new slate ofNEAAPOR officers: Doug Schwartz ofQuinnipiac University is our newPresident, Andrew Smith of University ofNew Hampshire is Vice-President,Gallup’s Lydia Saad is on board as chapterSecretary, and April Radocchio continues(thank you!) as Treasurer for anotheryear. Cynthia Talkov Boyd will serve asPast-President, and Ellen Boisvert—NEAAPOR’s first President back in1995—remains our trusted chapterAdvisor. ss

– Cynthia Talkov Boyd

New Jersey Chapter(NJAAPOR)This spring the newly energized NewJersey Chapter held its elections. Thenewly elected officers are Janice Ballou ofMathematica Policy Research, President(jballou@mathematica-mpr.com); EdFreeland of Princeton University, VicePresident (efreelan@princeton.edu); PaulBraun of Braun Research, Treasurer(pbraun@braunresearch.com); Jim Searsof James M. Sears Associates, Secretary(jsears1234@comcast.net); and FrankRusciano of Rider University, ProgramChair (rusciano@rider.edu). Currently,the chapter has 92 dues paying membersand 62 participated in the election for aturnout of 67 percent. Over the summerthe officers will be making plans for the2003-2004 programs, will continue torecruit members, and will review thebylaws. Please contact any of the officerswith ideas for chapter programs or formembership information. ss

– Janice Ballou

Pacific Coast Chapter(PAPOR)The Pacific Coast Chapter is having abusy and highly successful year. On thebusiness front, we became a registerednon-profit organization in California andalso moved our website to www.field.com/papor/ where it is being hosted byField Research Corporation.

continued on page 8

Hitting the Links This year’s AAPOR golf outing, arranged by Norm Trussell, was held Thursdaymorning at the spectacular Hermitage Golf Course. The weather could not havebeen better as the 27 golfers made their way around the beautifully laid out course.When it was all over, Bob Baumgartner was the winner of both low net and lowgross, as well as the ‘closest to the pin’ honors. Nancy Whelchel had second over-all low net, and low net and low gross for the women. Congratulations to all thegolfers!

AAPOR’s Athletes: 2003 Fun Run/Walk Results Several of our more active members got up early Saturday morning to participatein AAPOR’s Annual Fun Run/Walk. Thirty-five AAPORites took off at the 7:00 a.m.start for a scenic 1.5 mile run/walk through empty parking lots, honeysuckle-lineddeserted streets, and a lovely little lake (complete with signs to ‘beware ofsnakes’!). Dashing through the heat and humidity to finish first among the malerunners, with a time of 10:27, was Rob Suls, while Adria Gallup-Black finished firstamong the female runners with a time of 10:46. First among the walkers were RobSimmons and Trish Gallagher. Congratulations to all who participated in thisannual AAPOR event! We hope to see even more folks for a run/walk through thedesert at the Tapatio Cliffs Resort in Phoenix! ss

8 AAPOR NEWS

In the personnel arena, we wishedGodspeed to Karl Feld, who will remain asBoard President as he moves from WesternWats to RTI International in Raleigh-Durham. We also wished Godspeed toLiberty Greene of the Kaiser FamilyFoundation, who will be leaving the Boardto pursue a Master’s Degree in Chicago. Wewelcome three new board members: JillDarling-Richardson of the Los AngelesTimes as Vice President and PresidentElect, Jon Cohen of the Public PolicyInstitute of California as the newConference Chair to replace Liberty, andRebecca Levin of the Kaiser FamilyFoundation as Associate Conference Chairand Student Paper Coordinator.

On June 12, we co-sponsored a presenta-tion and discussion of papers that had beengiven at AAPOR for those who were unableto attend. Fifty-three people attended theall-day session at the University ofCalifornia, Berkeley, which was organizedby the Bay Area Survey Evaluators,Researchers, and Statisticians (BASE).

The chapter’s annual conference will beheld October 23 and 24 at the SheratonUniversal Hotel in Universal City,California. Included in the conference willbe a short course on Internet Pollingtaught by Dr. R. Michael Alvarez, Professorof Political Science at the CaliforniaInstitute of Technology and Co-Director ofthe Caltech/MIT Voting TechnologyProject. There will also be a plenary onCensus 2000. Panelists include: ElizabethMartin of the Census Bureau; Mary Heimof the Bureau of Demographic Research,California State Department of Finance;and Peter Brownstein of Survey SamplingInternational.

The deadline for the chapter’s AnnualStudent Paper Competition is September1, 2003. Any student attending a college oruniversity in the western United States iseligible to enter. The chair is Rebecca Levinof the Kaiser Family Foundation(RebeccaL@kff.org). The reviewers will beSandra Berry of RAND, Leslie Derbin ofPopulation Research Systems, and RogerLevine of the American Institutes forResearch. ss

– Jennifer Franz

Chapter NewsChapter Newscontinued from page 7

sssss

Norman Trussell in action. By Paul Lavrakas

Fun and Games at Nashville ConferenceBy Nancy Whelchel, Associate Chair, Conference Operations Committee

Kat Lind and Rob Daves warm up for the hoedown. By Philip Meyer.

Murray Edelman shares his squaredancing expertise with another conference attendee. By Thomas Guterbock

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9SUMMER 2003

“A Meeting Place”By Tom W. Smith

ACROSS1. AAPOR’s start7. 11 down located in8. Era

10. Old college _____11. AAPOR’s and Dorothy’s home15. Median point16. Not right19. Bay site23. Regional Transportation

Authority (abr.)24. Iron25. You27. Opposite of under votes (abr.)28. Professor’s helper (abr.)30. White plague32. Sun god34. Current36. Random draws39. St. Petersburg _____41. Maine cataloger (abr.)42. Hispanic candidate threw _____

hat into the ring45. Black gold48. Zip

49. Deep sleep51. Wisconsin siteDOWN1. Anti2. Expression in 4 down3. Light unit4. Canada site5. Charged particle6. _____ saying9. Windows is one (abr.)

11. Amusing site12. Much _____13. Quakers (abr.)14. either/ _____16. Open-ended question17. Surgery location (abr.)18. Passed from Schulman to

Martin20. Run crosstab again21. IJPOR preposition22. Rent26. Feminist grail29. AAPOR’s country home31. _____ humbug33. I think therefore I _____

35. Buck Hill Falls, _____ (abr.)37. Mightier than the sword38. Tree or e-mail program40. Copper42. Baker’s Square geometry

43. Everyone44. Copacetic46. Law (Danish)47. Links pc’s50. Danvers, _____ (abr.)

AAPOR is extremely pleased to announce the endowment of the annual student paper award in the name of SeymourSudman, world-renowned survey methodologist and former AAPOR President. The prize will now be called the AAPORSeymour Sudman Student Paper Award.

This endowment is made possible, in large part, by a very generous contribution from Ed Blair, Professor and Chair ofthe Department of Marketing and Entrepreneurship at the University of Houston’s C.T. Bauer College of Business. Blairis a former graduate student of Sudman’s and collaborated with the noted author on several books.

This contribution, in addition to ongoing support from Sudman’s many friends, makes it possible to fund the award inperpetuity, using the interest for the annual prize while conserving the principle. Additional contributions will always,of course, be welcomed, and can be made by check (payable to AAPOR Endowment Fund, with a notation to the SeymourSudman fund), or credit card, with information sent to Mike Flanagan at the AAPOR office.

This year’s winners of the Seymour Sudman Student Paper Award were:

Devon Johnson, Harvard University & Markus Prior, Princeton University

Honorable mention went to:

Clarissa David, Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania

Award Renamed in Honor of SudmanAward Renamed in Honor of Sudman

FFFFeeeeddddeeeerrrraaaallll DDDDoooo----NNNNooootttt----CCCCaaaallll llll RRRReeeeggggiiiissssttttrrrryyyy EEEExxxxeeeemmmmppppttttssss SSSSuuuurrrrvvvveeeeyyyyssssBy Mark Schulman, Past President

10 AAPOR NEWS

Millions of Americans jammed the Internet andgovernment toll-free numbers, starting June 25, to

register their phone numbers on the federal government’snational telemarketing “do-not-call” registry. This single,comprehensive registry is being administered by the FederalTrade Commission.

Survey research calls remain exempt from the federal registry.However, the survey industry is affected by the federal andstate do-not-call registries in several ways. First, becausetelemarketers have often used “surveys” as a guise fortelemarketing (“sugging”) and fundraising (“frugging”),survey respondent confusion is already resulting in somehostile feedback from registrants. Many registrants areunaware that survey research is exempt.

Second, the survey industry needs to remain vigilant inmonitoring both state and federal legislation. Some statelawmakers, for example, have inadvertently included surveysin state do-not-call legislation.

Third, survey organizations using listed samples supplied bytelemarketing list compilers should determine whether “donot call” registrants were removed from the lists. If so,organizations may request that registrants be included in theirsamples.

Many survey organizations have been arming theirinterviewers with scripts to inform complaining respondentsabout differences between survey research and telemarketing.The impact of the registry on survey response rates will needto be monitored.

Several survey industry organizations have been tracking do-not-call legislation. These include CMOR, which was foundedas The Council for Marketing & Opinion Research in 1992 byfour major marketing and market & opinion research tradeassociations, and the Council of American Survey ResearchOrganizations (CASRO). AAPOR has contributed to CMOR.

Exemptions from the list also include calls from charities and calls on behalf of politicians. Enforcement begins October 1, 2003. Both the FTC and the FCC have Internet sitesdevoted to the do-not-call registry. See

http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/conline/edcams/donotcall/index.htmland

http://www.fcc.gov/cgb/donotcall/

For further details or any questions regarding the FTC or FCCactions, please contact CMOR’s Director of GovernmentAffairs, Donna Gillin, at dgillin@cmor.org.

C E N T R A L C I T YO H I O O EN E T R Y A K A N S A S

YL

YO N

YK

E KT BL AC HU KL LM AA N

C O N O R M I D I O YW R O N G A N O R F OH E R T A A G C E T FY E N O V A S C T A YC R A T E A I C A M PS A M P L E S C B E AC E N E R L L B I R YC P A N A M A C O I LN I L T O A N C I C OC E L A K E D E L A V

Answers to puzzle on page 8.

Don’t forget to check out the still-fledgling AAPOR website for a lookback at Nashville 2003 and the dates of Phoenix 2004. A transcript ofthe epic ‘Huffington vs. the Pollsters’ panel will also be on the siteshortly.

Feedback, suggestions, and offers of help are always welcome. ContactPublications Chair, Claudia Deane at deanec@washpost.com, or WebCoordinator, Steve Everett at steve@everettgroup.com.

Remember that the current issue of POQ is now posted in the“Members Only” area. If you’ve forgotten your membership ID number,don’t be bashful, e-mail AAPOR-info@goAMP.com and ask them tosend it to you again.

www.aapor.org

11SUMMER 2003

Faces of AAPOR

Watch out Annie Liebowitz, turns out we have a portrait artist in our midst. Below a selection of the work of AAPOR member(and official Website Coordinator) Steve Everett, who went snap happy in Nashville. (More of Everett’s photos are posted at

www.aapor.org.)

Shap Wolf Cecilie Gaziano

Robert Groves

Harry O’Neill Kathleen Frankovic and Susan Pinkus

Steven Kull

Michael O’Neil

Dawn V. Nelson

Terry Richardson and Kathy O’Connor

Mollyann Brodie

Kurt Lang

Tom W. Smith

Standard Definitions TeamWins Innovators Award

Rob Daves, Tom W. Smith and PaulLavrakas won the 2003 AAPORInnovators Award for their leader-ship in producing “StandardDefinitions: Final Dispositions ofCase Codes and Outcome Rates forSurveys.” The three received theiraward at the annual conference inNashville.

Standard Definitions TeamWins Innovators Award

12 AAPOR NEWS

President’s ColumnTHE

election polling, to document methodsand provide guidance to the public andto journalists in using and interpretingsuch data. The work of this committee isintended to complement and build onother efforts to review poll performance,such as the National Council on PublicPolls’ review of 2002 election polls.

Reflecting on the conference remindedme of discussions of similar issuesalmost 20 years ago by the NationalAcademy of Science’s Panel on SurveyMeasurement of Subjective Pheno-mena. The first recommendation of thepanel’s report, to “Take surveys and polls seriously,” foreshadowsHuffington’s critique and still seems rel-evant today, as does the panel’s answerto its rhetorical question:

“How would life be different ifthis recommendation were gen-erally accepted? There would befewer polls and surveys that aremanifestly inadequate to theirstated purpose…. One would notread extravagant or frivolousinterpretations of poll results,presented so that a critical readerhas no opportunity to make acontrary interpretation. Polls andsurveys would be applied to seri-ous social purposes and not usedsolely for the sake of public rela-tions or the legitimization ofdecisions already taken. More-over, the public would be sup-portive of competent and carefulexercise of the art of surveying orpoll-taking and capable of dis-

criminating between standardand substandard performance.And, finally, resources would behusbanded so that fewer surveysand polls could provide more andbetter information. When pollsare taken seriously, the publicwill no longer believe on theauthority of a cynical pollsterthat you can come up with anyresult you want.”

As was true then, AAPOR continues tohave an important role to play in getting survey practitioners, survey crit-ics, survey users, and the public at largeto “take surveys and polls seriously.” ss

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