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Spatial Economics • Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction – Covered last chapter • Secondary Sector: Manufacturing • Tertiary Sector: Services – Pay Scales: • Primary: 0 $ • Secondary: $ $$ • Tertiary: $ $$$

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Page 1: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Spatial Economics

• Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction– Covered last chapter

• Secondary Sector: Manufacturing

• Tertiary Sector: Services – Pay Scales:

• Primary: 0 $• Secondary: $ $$• Tertiary: $ $$$

Page 2: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Industry: Manufacturing

http://www.china-consulting-sourcing.com/Img/xin_b18be03cc16511d69cfb00c04f4adb90.jpg http://www.tickintsofcentralohio.org/images/Historical/MODEL_T_ASSEMBLY_LINE.jpghttp://faculty.virginia.edu/hius341/images/objects/fordassemblyline.jpg

Page 3: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Beginnings: Cottage Industry

• http://www.fao.org/docrep/w9500e/w9500e72.jpg

Page 4: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Steam Engine, by James Watt

Heralded the Industrial Revolution• Pumped mine water• Drove machinery• Drove railroad engines

• (Before the steam engine, machinery driven manually, by wind, or by water.)

http://www.glasgowmuseums.com/assets/slideShows/Watt%20Steam%20Engine.jpg

Page 5: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Steam Application: Locomotive, Railroad

• Faster, more efficient land transportation, with larger loads• Steam engine + wheels + rails• U.K. Germany France, U.S., etc.• Engines considerably sped up local development.

•http://library.thinkquest.org/04oct/01249/imagesc/locomotive.jpg

Page 6: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Example: Smithsonian Museum(Modern Museum of Industries)

http://sc94.ameslab.gov/TOUR/smithsonian.gif

Page 7: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Land Cost Example: Tokyo Bay

• Purple is built-up.

• Green is vegetation

• High land rents

• Land built in the bay

•http://www.gdrc.org/oceans/un-seahorse/images/tokyo-bay.gif

Page 8: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Density Higher land rent

• http://homepage1.nifty.com/sukusuku/photo/tdr/2003/020-tokyo-bay.jpg

Page 9: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Educated Large Labor Force Growth

• http://www.benchmarkstaffing.com/images/pics/client_img.gif

Page 10: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Skilled labor higher productivity, profits

Key to manufacturing

• Literacy

• Technical skills

• Strong in EU, US, Russia, China, etc.

• Weak in Africa, parts of Asia and S. America

•http://www.benchmarkstaffing.com/images/pics/client_img.gif

Page 11: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Lax Laws: Child Labor more profits

• Information: http://www.historyplace.com/unitedstates/childlabor/• http://www.historyplace.com/unitedstates/childlabor/empty.jpg• http://www.kenlight.com/photos/childlabor/beads.jpg

Then: U.S.

Now: Third World

Page 12: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Site: Capital and Interest Rates

• Negotiable• Varies by

country, and over time…

• Sometimes varies by region, site

http://www.norges-bank.no/english/speeches/annual-2004/charts/chart1.gif

Page 13: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Situation: Bulk Reducing: Copper

http://mining.ubc.ca/cimarchive/Smelter/AnodCast/10000039.JPG, http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~wegryn/images/Morenci3.JPGhttp://stoner.eps.mcgill.ca/HomeImage/open_pit_copper_mine_arizona.jpg

Processing reduces shipping costs.

Page 14: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Situation: Bulk Gaining:Locations near the customer

• Reduces distribution costs by adding bulk near the consumer.• Example, Coke: Just add water and carbonation…

•http://www.texasescapes.com/Signs/CocaCola/CocaColaRoswellNewMexicoCBarclayGibson.jpg

Page 15: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

By-products: Steel Mills Pollution

• http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/images/0ChinaBeijSteelPol.jpg

Page 16: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Transportation

• Transportation: part of services sector (Tertiary sector, next chapter.)• Picking sites with good transportation at the location is a site decision.• Location central to customers, and near transportation modes, are situation

decisions.

http://www.theclydebankstory.com/images/TCSM00108_m.jpghttp://www.speakeasy.org/~peterc/nicaragua/drycanal/containr/images/dblstac1.jpghttp://www.airliners.nl/images/DAS_Air_Cargo_280204.jpg

Page 17: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Market Decline and Stagnation

Market Decline can destroy companies , while stagnation stalls growth.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_4jIlyJ10uJU/TPFEHXh6K9I/AAAAAAAAKic/ICj7os7vJFU/s1600/Sur%2BGoods.JPG

Page 18: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Stagnation: Agricultural Sector and Trade

• Demand is flat, sometimes declining!• No market growth little incentive to enter market.• (Example grains, from agriculture, same principle works here. http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/1999/99-05/graint3.gif

Page 19: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Problem: Capacity Exceeds Demand:

• Could be SUVs, Trucks… Remember the present and past.

Story:http://www.potashcorp.com/investor_relations/investor_overview/industry_overview/2005/phosphate/page_19.zsp

Image: http://www.potashcorp.com/common/images/content_images/markets/industry_overview/2005/graphs/S519_New-DAP-Cap-vs-Demand.gif

Page 20: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Increasing Product Supply:

• Plastic ‘Stuff’: – When you get your plastic stuff, see where it comes from.

• Japan• Korea• China• India

• Shoes: – When you shop for shoes, look at the tags.

• Was Indonesia (but we boycotted sweat shops, so…)• Now made in China

Page 21: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Resource Demand: Oil

• Increased demand, but old supplies dwindle

• More demand, less supply higher prices

http://www.kkrva.se/images/energi/priddle2.jpg

Page 22: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

US Petroleum Supply, Energy Use:

• Total demand increases• Local production falls• Foreign oil purchases, dependency• Foreign oil supply and foreign policy are critical.

Images: http://www.azgs.az.gov/images/winter0106.gif http://www.cpast.org/Articles/Artfiles/000/000/014/f14_6.gif

Page 23: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Innovation: Assembly Line

• http://www.tickintsofcentralohio.org/images/Historical/MODEL_T_ASSEMBLY_LINE.jpg• http://faculty.virginia.edu/hius341/images/objects/fordassemblyline.jpg

Page 24: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

MDC perspectives

• Trading Blocks: Example of cooperation…– Politics chapter

• Competitive trade advantages (NAFTA, OPEC, &)

• Internal disparities within countries and unions– areas of growth and decline…

• (Rust Belt, R&D regions such as Silicon Valley)

• Older, shrinking established populations, immigration– Population and Migration,

• (Western E.U. and Japan, Scandinavia, Russia)

• Transnational Corporations– Globalization of production

• Outsourcing

Page 25: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

LDC perspectives• More Disadvantages:

– distance to (external) markets, – inadequate infrastructure: (transportation, communications, goods,

services, tools, machines) – entrenched competition, – inconsistent governance and laws, – government instability, – low literacy

• More Advantages: – low labor costs, – local raw materials (if any) – fewer legal restrictions, (e.g. easier to pollute)– Large labor pools– Few or no benefits (health, retirement, vacation, etc.)

Page 26: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Services:

Service: • Any activity that fulfills a human want or need

and returns money to those who provide it.

(Not Manufacturing…)• Not people making ‘stuff’.

Page 27: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Service Types:• Consumer Services

– Services for people who enjoy them• Retail Services: sales to individual consumers • Personal Services: services for the well being and personal

improvement of individual consumers. • Producer Services:

– Services for people who use services for their work.• banks, insurance, real estate, financial, law, engineering,

wholesale• Transportation and Information Services,

– Railroads, trucking, phone, airlines, UPS, cable• Public Services

– Provide security and protection for citizens and businesses– Provide benefits to society as a whole.

• (Includes teaching)

Page 28: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Situation patterns

• Dispersed Settlements: – more self-sufficient, – lower demand for goods/services – Example: Mid-Atlantic US Midwest

• Clustered Settlements: – more interdependent – produce better goods by specializing– Examples: New England, Europe

Page 29: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Site Patterns:

– Circular (defensible), – Linear (along rivers, roads), – Grid (Chang-An, Nara, Kyoto), – Long-lot (France, Canada)

Page 30: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Central Place Theory

• (important!) – (What do I do when things are important?)

• Why is it important?– Helps explain the distribution of services, and why

a regular pattern develops.– Helps explain migration patterns.– Half of the explanation for cities, the next chapter.

Page 31: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Threshold and Range

• Threshold: minimum population required to survive.• Range: maximum distance people travel for a service.

http://teacherweb.ftl.pinecrest.edu/snyderd/APHG/Unit%206/urbannotes_files/image002.jpg

Page 32: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Increasing Competition

A: Less competition: circles

B: More competition: overlapping service ranges

C: Select the closest store lines service boundaries

This produces hexagons.

http://www.csiss.org/learning_resources/content/g5/materials/G5_Image_Library/de_Blij_figures/IMAGE_56.JPG

Page 33: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Hexagon: Basic shape

• Highly competitive market: – all areas are served.

• Equal services: – Go to the closest service.

• Boundaries form the lines of a hexagon.

• http://www.uwec.edu/Geography/Ivogeler/w111/circle4.gif

Page 34: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

3

• http://www-personal.umich.edu/~sarhaus/courses/NRE501_W1999/501w/cptk7.jpg

Page 35: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Central Place Theory: Pattern

• Stores requiring a larger market threshold must serve more than one settlement to survive. These stores serve a market area encompassing neighboring settlements within their range.

• If the range encompasses one neighboring settlement, it encompasses all six.

Page 36: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Central Place Theory: Pattern

• This results in hexagons containing 7 settlements. The central settlements contain these (larger market threshold and range) stores serving more communities are larger, and are also known as more central places. (This gives the name to the theory.)

• Stores with still larger thresholds and ranges encompass clusters of these larger communities, and are located at cluster centers.

Page 37: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Applied Central Place Theory

– CPT pattern affects migration• Jobs, • services, • convenience

– Concentration and mixture of cultures, development of subcultures

• Faster dispersion of:– new ideas, activities, things,– cultural change

Page 38: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Rank Size:• Small Towns: serve local region, with small range stores that

contain the population threshold.

– Castroville: often, small store, gas, motel?

• Medium Towns: Sell to small towns within a larger local region or service area.

– King City: supermarkets, auto sales, mall & CBD

• Small Cities: Serve medium towns within an even larger region.

– Salinas: Wal-mart/K-Mart/Cosco, Community College

• Larger Cities: Market to small cities within an increasing, larger service area

– San Jose: University, convention center, international airport, wide range of services

Page 39: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Largest City Comparisons:

• Rank Size Rule: (pattern) The nth city (or city rank) has approximately 1/n * the population of the largest city.

– When the rank size rule does not work for the second city, the first city is extremely dominant.

• Primate City Rule: (pattern) The largest city in a region has more than twice the population of the second largest city.

You have one OR the other, but not both!

Page 40: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Cities: History

– Ancient cities: ex: Ur, Chang-an, Athens, Rome (wall, temples, market, housing, & road networks)

– City states: independent self-governing communities that included a nearby countryside

– Medieval cities: ex: Paris, London (often charters of rights, more personal freedom/less serfdom)

– Modern World Cities: ex: NYC/Tokyo/London (global reach/service area, e.g. finance, influence)

Page 41: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Central Place Theory: Review

• A threshold population is needed for success• This population must be in range for them to buy.• With overlapping ranges, people pick closest store.

– (This defines the service area in the simplest case.)

• Hexagons result from closest packing.• Then, services need a threshold (population) within

the service area.• A beehive pattern is optimal for consumer access.• We find a nested pattern of larger and smaller

communities, larger communities also have stores with larger range, serving smaller communities.

Page 42: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Resource Issues

Manufacturing and Services Environment and Economics

Page 43: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Total energy consumption per capita

Kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) per personhttp://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/results.php?years=1990-1990,2000-2000,2003-2003&variable_ID=351&theme=6&cID=26,38,63,70,85,122,189,190&ccID=0,9,10

2003 2000 1990

World 1,674.40 1,633.80 1,633.30

2003 2000 1990

Developed Countries 4,623.10 4,576.80 ..

Developing Countries 910.1 840.1 705.7

ISO 2003 2000 1990

Brazil BRA 1,067.60 1,068.10 896.6

China {1} CHN 1,138.30 946.4 791.7

France FRA 4,518.40 4,345.10 4,005.90

Germany DEU 4,203.10 4,173.00 4,484.50

India IND 512.4 501.4 425.7

Mexico MEX 1,533.20 1,502.40 1,475.00

United Kingdom GBR 3,918.10 3,970.20 3,738.10

United States USA 7,794.80 8,109.00 7,543.40

Page 44: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Global carbon consumption per capita:

(Down? Not. Population still increases.)  http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/results.php?theme=3&years=1980-1980,1990-1990,2000-2000&variable_ID=466&cID=38,63,70,85,122,189,190&ccID=0,9,10&years_rev=1

1980 1990 2000

World 4.24 4.06 3.95

1980 1990 2000

Developed Countries 12.48 11.94 11.11

Developing Countries 1.25 1.55 1.91

ISO 1980 1990 2000

China CHN 1.54 2.2 2.72

France FRA 9.03 6.65 6.16

Germany DEU 14.05 12.23 10.42

India IND 0.46 0.76 1.03

Mexico MEX 3.83 3.66 3.86

United Kingdom GBR 10.66 10.16 9.4

United States USA 20.87 19.22 20.29

Page 45: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Resources:• Energy

– Petroleum– Natural Gas– Coal– Nuclear

• Minerals– Ferrous: Iron, et. al.– Non-Ferrous: Many more.

• Crucial to the world as we know it today.

Page 46: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Pollution:• Pollution occurs when more waste products are

generated than a resource (local system) can accommodate.– Natural

• Volcanoes, Floods, etc.

– Human• Manufacturing• Transportation• Consumption• Discarded products• Waste Products

Page 47: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

By-products: Solid Pollution

• http://www.pools-hottubs.com/Dump%201.JPG

Page 48: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Land and Water Pollution: Tailings

Tailings:• Leavings of the mine• Unwanted by-product

Tailings also produce:• Dust• Contaminated runoff

http://www.robinsonforest.org/mining/strip_mine_runoff.jpg

Page 49: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Mining and Mountain Topping:

• http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/razingappalachia/images/home_left.jpg

Page 50: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Abandoned industries & Superfund sites

• http://www.blm.gov/aml/graphics/pregpond.jpg• BLM abandoned mine work: http://www.blm.gov/aml/alphindex_aml.htm

Page 51: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

By-products: Liquid Pollution

• Agricultural• Manufacturing• Services• Sewage

http://www.motherjones.com/news/featurex/2006/03/runoff_265x347.jpg

Page 52: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Population and Consumption:

What happens if the present population increases consumption to the present

first world consumption rate?

1. Use present consumption information

2. Compare the industrial world and the rest of the world.

3. Set the world to industrialized world consumption

4. Compare present and fully industrialized consumption.

Page 53: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

1) Find a relative consumption factor:

MDCs• 20% of population uses 80% of resources.• 0.2 * R1 = 0.8• R1 = 0.8 / 0.2 = 4 • (4 * AVERAGE!)

LDCs• 80% of population uses 20% of resources.• 0.8 * R2 = 0.2• R2 = 0.2 / 0.8 = 0.25• (1/4 OF AVERAGE!)

Page 54: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

2) Compare the MDCs and LDCs:

• Try a ratio:• R1 / R2 = 4 / 0.25 • R1 / R2 = 16• If still true, the First World (MDCs)

uses 16 times the amount of resources

per capita as the rest of the world.• (Amazing!)

Page 55: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

3) Set the world to MDC consumption:

Old total consumption:• (MDCs) + (Everyone Else) = 1• (20% * 4) + (80% * .25) = 1

Fully industrialized total consumption:• 100% * 4 = 4• 4 * present average… (Problem!)

Page 56: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Q1: Is this supportable? Realistic?

• We would run out of oil approx. 4 times as fast.• We would have 4 * the demand for raw materials.• We would have 4 * the demand for steel and other industrial products.• The world would in theory eat a similar calorie and meat diet.• The world also would adopt our approach wholesale.

– (All are doubtful.)

Page 58: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

When do we run out? What do we do?Assumptions are used in

each model:• Proven Reserves,• Potential Reserves,• Reasonable production

costs, &Note: This estimate

assumes no coal, nuclear by 2050, but both are now major contributions.

• Is this the ‘best’ mix?• What is ‘best’? Why?• Who picks? How?

http://www.hdg-online.net/data/comp_images/1248/0202_29_tab1_e.jpg

Page 59: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Local, Regional, Global Effects Sources:

• Transportation• Energy

consumption• Manufacturing

http://www.torontoenvironment.org/image/view/154http://www.wnbiodiesel.com/smog.jpg

Page 60: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Local Regional: Smog in China

• http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Smog/2004/UNIchina008_MO.jpg

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Smog/2004/UNIchina008_MO.jpg

Page 61: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Smog: combustion engines, industry

• http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/P/photochemical_smog.gif

Page 62: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Oil Drilling used to be easy.

• http://www.bfcollection.net/indphoto/jpg/02294s.jpg

Page 63: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Harder Sites: Offshore Oil, and Slicks

• Background:

– Oil platform

• Foreground:

– Oil Slick

• Site:

– Santa Barbara Channel

http://www.countyofsb.org/energy/images/1969Blowout.jpghttp://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.countyofsb.org/energy/images/1969Blowout.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.countyofsb.org/energy/information/1969blowout.asp&h=374&w=255&sz=23&hl=en&start=13&tbnid=ubcKu3hGTJKE2M:&tbnh=122&tbnw=83&prev=/images%3Fq%3Doil%2Bplatform%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official_s%26sa%3DG (Text)

Page 64: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

US Petroleum Supply, Energy Use:

• Total demand increases• Local production falls• Foreign oil purchases & dependency• Foreign oil supply and foreign policy become critical.

Images: http://www.azgs.az.gov/images/winter0106.gif http://www.cpast.org/Articles/Artfiles/000/000/014/f14_6.gif

Page 65: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

We do not control our oil future.

• (Relate to ANWR.)• Image: http://oil.server4.com/temp9.gif

Page 66: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Resource Demand: Oil

• Increased Demand, but old supplies dwindle• New supplies are more costly.• More demand, less supply higher prices

http://www.kkrva.se/images/energi/priddle2.jpg

Page 67: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

Oil Reserves:• Extract from proven reserves.• Note location and regional (in)stability.

http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/proved.versus2.gifhttp://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/proved.versus2.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/index2.html&h=404&w=550&sz=21&hl=en&start=2&tbnid=q41euhCtAOLmeM:&tbnh=98&tbnw=133&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dproven%2Boil%2Bsupply%2Bworld%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official_s%26sa%3DG

Page 68: Spatial Economics Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction –Covered last chapter Secondary Sector: Manufacturing Tertiary Sector: Services –Pay Scales:

What are ‘Recoverable, Unconventional?’

• Unconventional:– Tar Sands– Oil Shale

• Recoverable:– Re-tapping old fields (See ‘fracking’, and associate risks.)

• Many extraction efforts need new technologies• Deeper wells• Deep-sea drilling• Specialized extraction techniques

– Many to be determined, developed, or tested, risks evaluated.

• If the oil is not recoverable, we run out. • If the oil is recoverable, we pay more… and we pollute more.

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Pollution: Air / Thermal

• Local: – Smog,

– Surface Ozone,

– Inversions,

– Heat Islands

• Regional: – Smog,

– Acid Rain,

– Changes in rainfall patterns

• Global: – Warming

• Greenhouse Gases

– Ozone Hole• CFCs, etc.

http://www.battelle.org/environment/images/air1.jpg

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Local Temperature: Heat Island Effect

• This localized effect is different from global warming. It is caused by energy use (air conditioning, cars, industries, etc.)

Source URL: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/images/health_fig2_e.jpg

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Regional Effect:

• Acid Rain– Reduces agricultural output– Harms species– Impacts ecosystems

• Ex: Black Forest, Europe• Ex: Eastern US

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Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

• http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/sustainability/images/greenhouse_effect.jpg

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• http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/climatechange/figure_4.jpg

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Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

• The greenhouse effect is natural. Gases absorb and re-radiate a lot of energy. – Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx, etc.

• The enhanced greenhouse effect is the additional human contribution to those greenhouse gases.

• The enhanced greenhouse effect is caused in large part by fossil fuel use, including manufacturing, transportation, and shipping.

• There are other contributions:– Cow flatulence, – Rice patties

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Why add the word enhanced?

• You are more correct.• You sound more intelligent.• You indicate more of the big picture. (!!!)

– The greenhouse effect exists without us.– Humans enhance it (by burning fossil fuels, etc.)– Without the greenhouse effect, the world would be a cold

place to live.– With the enhanced greenhouse effect, the world will be a

hotter place to live than it has been.

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Global Warming: Notable

• Abnormal•http://www.grinningplanet.com/2004/01-27/global-warming-1000-v2.gif

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Causes: IdentifiableEx: Consistent Annual CO2 rise

http://www.uigi.com/mauna_loa_co2.GIF

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Problem:Estimable:

Gases energy storage

in the atmosphere.

• http://www.research.noaa.gov/climate/images/observing3.gif

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Present Effects: Predictable

• We can model aspects of global warming.. • Models are incomplete, (always will be), but sufficient for prediction.

http://www.ucar.edu/research/climate/images/pcmensembles.jpg

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Sea Level Rise

Seas: response lags as the oceans absorb temperature and slowly expand. Land glacial melt combines with this.http://membrane.com/sidd/topexjason2004.jpg

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Effects are notable. Rate of future change is uncertain.

• Glacial retreat (mountain and continental)• Sea level rise

– Land loss, population displacement• More extreme events

– Stronger storms• Hotter summers

– More heat wave related deaths are expected.• More droughts

– Poorer crop production is likely.• Stronger winter cold weather events (!)

– Heat engine: more heat more circulation.

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Consequences are expected, but when?

• Sea level rise: Southeast US: + 8 m.

• Greenland Ice Cap = 7 m.– Note: Miami, New

Orleans, US East Coast cities

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/fig5.gif•http://www.fao.org/sd/SDimages/EIre0045.GIF

http://www.benfieldhrc.org/climate_change/sea_level_rise/UK7m.rise.jpg

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Now for the bad news…

• Long-term consequences of this initial change are difficult to calculate.

• There are positive and negative feedbacks that complicate the long-term results, including:– Economics– Population Growth– Energy Efficiency– Energy Sources, – New Technologies

• Technology adoption

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Why is it taking so long?

• Greenhouse gases take time to be absorbed.• Greenhouse gas production is going up, not down.• New habits and technologies (translation, you) are needed.• Any new states and transitions will take time to complete.

Example: oceans.– Sea level rise is a function of amount of water and its

temperature.– The oceans heat up slowly over time, matching the surface

temperature regime over centuries. The effect is cumulative, but glacially slow.

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Alternative Energy Source Options:• Solar

– Needs dependable sunlight.• Wind

– Needs dependable high winds.• Bio-fuel

– Takes much farmland from food production.– Low total yields.

• Fission (?) Fusion (???)– Still in search of solutions: radiation, efficiency

• Hydrogen (??) This is a storage medium, e.g. hydrogen cells– Need an energy source for splitting water. (N/A)

• This is actually like a battery. It stores energy.

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Option: Solar

• Needs reliable sunlight– Southwest

• More flexible than wind– Can place on objects

• Rooftops, etc.• Often related do demand

– Hot sunny days want A/C• Not good everywhere

– Bad in the North in Winter• New England.• Midwest

http://www.solartude.net/solar_farm_1.jpghttp://www.greenprophet.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/brightsource2_620px111-499x394.jpg

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Option: Wind

• Strong winds• Reliable winds• Few people

– Not popular– NIMBY

• Noisy• Kills birds• Visual

intrusion

http://www.tva.gov/news/files/buffmtn/turbines3.jpg

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Option: Hydro-power

• http://www.arizona-leisure.com/gfx/hoover-dam-photo-3.gif

Needs •water, •reservoir •(head)

Environmental concerns, siltation

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LULU: Locally Undesirable Land Use

• Everyone wants some products.

• No-one wants waste products, etc.

• Many want new ‘stuff’

• Few want the old junk.

• We make them and dump them someplace. Where?

• Not in my back yard! (NIMBY)

• So… Whose back yard?

http://www-csgc.ucsd.edu/STORIES/DNPP.02Lo.jpg http://www.pools-hottubs.com/Dump%201.JPG

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1/3 of Nuclear Power production is in the U.S.

• (Where is this?) http://www-csgc.ucsd.edu/STORIES/DNPP.02Lo.jpg

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Nuclear Power Concerns:Accidents

– Chernobyl• Terrorism• Bomb Material

– Theft or sale• LULU• Thermal Pollution• Radiation

– I understand that radiation from coal plants is comparable.

http://www.bb-elec.com/images/nuclear-power-plant-closer.jpg

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HDI and Consumption:

• Compare US, Japan, Brazil• Source URL: http://www.lib.utah.edu/gould/1998/Figure_9.gif• Source info: http://www.lib.utah.edu/gould/1998/lecture98.html

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Combating Pollution

• Recycle reusable resources.– Change discarded items from waste products to resources.

• Reduce consumption.– Reduce waste produced in manufacture and distribution.

• Reuse components.– Includes re-purposing.

• Research less polluting methods– Includes changing products, and changing methods.

• Replace present polluting methods with better methods.– We already have some alternative methods that work. (Prev. slides.)

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Questions?

Comments?

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Combating Pollution (repeat)

• Recycle reusable resources.• Reduce consumption.• Reuse components until they die.• Research less polluting methods• Replace present polluting methods with better methods.

Have a Merry Christmas!

(Happy Consumption Festival!)

(or) have a happy vacation!

(Consume wisely.)