Source: CJTF HOA NIPR Web Site

Source- RAND Corporation

FOOD SCARCITY

15 – 39% 5 – 15% 1 – 5%

0.5 – 1.0%0.1 – 0.5%

0.0 – 0.1% not available

HIV prevalence in adults, end 2001

HIV/AIDS

Recoverable Crude Oil Futures (in billions of barrels)

                             0.1 0.1 to 1 1 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 100 > 100

Eckert VI Projection U. S. Geological Survey, C. Masters & R. M. Turner 1994

OIL

US presses Africa to turn on the tap of crude oil.  By Carl Mortished, International Business Editor . July 29, 2002

NIGERIA

GAS

ALGERIA

ANGOLA

NAMBIA

LIBYA

EGYPT

SUDANNIGER

CHADMALI

ETHIOPIA

Transit Routes

The New Gulf Oil States

• Africa’s Oil Reserves are 8% of world crude reserves (UN Conference on Trade & Development)

• Sub-Saharan Africa produces as much as Iran, Venezuela and Mexico combined

• Output increased 36% in 10 years (2003 rpt)

• Most non OPEC• Accounts 16% US imports (2003)

– 25% in 10 years25% in 10 years

URANIUM

NIGER

NAMBIA

GABON

FRANC ZONE

Phases of Integration:

Customs Unions as entry point into community

A Common Market

A monetary Union

A Political Federation

Franc Zone Principles• Free convertibility by French treasury of CFA

francs • Fixed exchange rates (French Franc/Euro peg)• Liberty of transfer free in the zone• Centralization of exchange reserves.

Operations account in French treasury , CFA central banks depositing 65% of their exchange reserves in exchange for convertibility– French veto over zone monetary policy if account

overdrawn

So What?

• Local Issues and Solutions Have Regional Impacts

• Vision Is Continental• Interests Are “Vital”• Commitment Is Generational

Spreading Democracy

CENTCOM Brief

National Security Goals/Africa

• Protect US, Property, & Citizens– Isolate, Disrupt, Destroy Terrorist Organizations of

Global Reach• Eliminate safe havens & networks• Improve CT capability & cooperation• Expand African capacity to participate in HA & PK ops• Promote African defense capability & reform• Facilitate democratic development• Stop spread of HIV/AIDS• Increase participation w/ European partners in Africa• Prevention of WMD & illegal arms proliferation

African Center For Strategic Studies 2004

Challenges

• Expand African Capacity to Participate in HA & PK Operations– Legal FrameworkLegal Framework – “Neo Peace

Enforcement” & “Robust Peace Keeping.” – Organizational FrameworkOrganizational Framework

• UN Resolution• Regional Authority Request