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Seite 1
Solar PV Market in India
Market Potentials and Business Applications for Photovoltaic in India
25.10.2013, Berlin, Germany
Timon Herzog, Sandeep Goel, GIZ / ComSolar
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Seite 2
Challenging Energy Future
29/10/2013
Growth assumptions for 20701:
• 1.7 Billion population (1.2 today)
• 2000 kWh per capita electricity consumption (625 KWh today)
• 2070 no more (economic feasible) fossil fuels available
3400 TWh electrical energy required (Germany 2012: 594,5 TWh)
More than tripling todays demand (~ 1000 TWh)
1 own assumptions following aggregation of different sources e.g. CIA Worldfactbook, Census data, IEA projections
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Scenario for 3400 TWh non-fossil supply?
29/10/2013
Exemplary calcualation1:
1200 TWh hydroelectric, wind, biomass & large scale PV
PLUS:
2200 TWh in 540 nuclear power plants (1 reactor every 11 KM on the
Indian coast)
OR:
One 3 kWp PV rooftop system on every 4th Indian household (~1275
GWp capacity / ~ 22 GWp annually from 2013)
Theoretically enough to do for the PV-Sector!
1 Atul H. Chokshi, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
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Seite 4
I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Pic
ture
s:
GIZ
, D
MR
C
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Commercialisation of solar energy in urban and
industrial areas (ComSolar)
29/10/2013
Around 15 activities for facilitation of solar thermal and PV
applications on behalf of BMU / IKI
Flagship activities:
• www.solarguidelines.in – pathway for project finance and implementation
• Policy support for rooftop solar – policy advisory for MNRE, states and cities
• Solar thermal in process heat applications for industries
• Solar Air Heating in the Himalaya – with Solar-Institut Jülich & SWT Stuttgart
• Demo projects – E.g. :PV metro, Green cricket, IndiaOne
• Capacity building - workshops, trainings, awareness building
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I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Pic
ture
s:
GIZ
, D
MR
C
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Seite 7
• Population: 1.2 billion (Nearly 14 times of Germany)
• Area: about 10 times of Germany
• 69% population lives in rural areas
• About 350 million people still depend on kerosene for lighting
• 3rd largest CO2 emitting country but with very low per capita emissions
• 28 states and 7 union territories with strong federal character
India snapshot
29.10.2013
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Thermal; 153.8 ; 68%
Large Hydro; 39.6 ; 17%
Nuclear; 4.8 ; 2%
Wind Power; 19.7 ; 9%
Small Hydro Power ; 3.7 ; 2%
Cogeneration-bagasse; 2.3 ;
1%
Biomass Power; 1.3 ; 0%
Solar Power; 1.8 ; 1%
Waste to Energy; 0.1 ; 0%
Renewable energy; 28.9 ;
12%
Grid Connected Installed Capacity – 228 GW1
29/10/2013
1Source: Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (As on 31.07.2013)
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Thermal comprises of 87% coal, 12% Gas and 1% diesel power
Captive Generation Capacity in Industries (as on 31-03-2011)=34,444.12 MW
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Electricity demand & supply gap in India
29/10/2013
• The demand and
supply represents only
for grid connected
households.
• Still, 350 million people
have no / not sufficient
access to electricity
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Source: Central Electricity Authority, Census of India 2011
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13*
Ele
ctr
ica
l e
nerg
y i
n T
Wh
Years
Electrical energy required Electrical energy supplied Shortage (%)
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Agriculture Pumping, 18%
Commercial buildings, 2%
Municipalities, 2%
Domestic, 24%
Industry, 53%
Electricity consumption pattern
29/10/2013
• Huge potential for onsite
generation through solar
• Apart from electricity, direct
diesel engine drives are
commonly used for
agriculture pumping
applications
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Source: Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE)
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Summary
29/10/2013
• India’s biggest challenge is to supply electricity to 1.2 billion people
• Majority of electricity demand in India is met by Thermal power plants
• Renewable Energy (excluding large hydro) constitutes about 12% of supply mix
• The difference between demand and supply of electricity remains between 8-10%
• Domestic electricity supply is the 2nd largest demand segment after industrial
sector for electricity – huge potential for rooftop solar
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I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Pic
ture
s:
GIZ
, D
MR
C
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Seite 13
Retail electricity costs in India (Euro/kWh*) (at 85 INR/EUR)
29/10/2013
• Commercial consumers pay more to subsidize domestic and agricultural
consumers (almost free electricity)
• Consumers are facing abrupt tariff hikes.
• Commonly used diesel backup power (~ 30 GW) is too expensive and polluting
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0.08 0.09
0.08 0.07
0.01
0.17
Domestic CommercialLT
CommercialHT
Industrial Agriculture DieselBackup*Average of tariff from four main states
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1100-1300 kWh/m2 1250-2150 kWh/m2
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High solar radiation in India
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Results from 10.47 kWp rooftop plant at German
House, New Delhi
29.10.2013
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5.52 kWp (Multi-crystalline) and 4.95 kWp (Thin film)
Specific yield: 1442 kWh/kWp/year
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4% 5% 5%
7% 7%
11%
8% 6% 7%
14%
8%
14%
20%
24%
10%
Korea Japan Germany Italy Australia SouthAfrica
France China USA Canada UK Russia Brazil India World
Comparison of Transmission and Distribution losses
29/10/2013
• Data represents technical and commercial losses
• Largest problem at the distribution level
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Source: Central Electricity Authority
Seite 17
Major market opportunities
29.10.2013
Large Ground Mounted: Central/State tariff/VGF PPA revenues
Medium size ground/rooftop: REC mechanism REC+PPA revenues
Small/Medium size rooftop: captive consumption & NME Electricity/diesel savings
Diesel abatement– telecom towers Diesel savings
Rural applications (not covered in this presentation)
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1. Large Ground Mounted
29.10.2013
Parameters State policies Central policies
Policy Diverse National solar mission
(20 GW till 2022)
Plant size 5-50 MW 10-50 MW
Average determined
Tariffs
0.07-0.11 Euro/kWh
(6.45-9.27 INR/kWh) VGF – to be determined
Current capacity
allocations About 2 GW 750 MW (JNNSM II. B1)
Time of procurement Ongoing till Q2 2014 Q3/4 2014
Domestic content
requirement No Yes, on 375 MW
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2. Medium size ground/rooftop based on REC
mechanism
29.10.2013
• Registered projects – 180 MW
• Accreditated projects – 200 MW
• No domestic content requirement
@ APPC by SERC
Eur 0.02-0.04/kWh
@ Rate at
Exchange Platform
(Euro 109-157/REC*)
Renewable
Energy
Electricity
REC
Distribution
Company
Obligated
Entity
(Buyer)
REC
Mechanism
OA / Trader
Agreement @
Mutually Agreed
Price
1MWh=1 REC
* Price fixed only till 2017
Source: www.recregistryindia.nic.in
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OA – Open Access Consumer
SERC – State Electricity Regulatory Commission
APPC – Average pooled Purchase cost
Seite 20
3. Rooftop PV for captive supply
29.10.2013
Key drivers of the market
• Retail electricity more expensive everyday (partial solar parity)
• Unreliable conventional grid power
• Expensive and polluting Diesel power
• MNRE Capital subsidy (30%) can be available
• Accelerated Depreciation (80% first year) available
• State Governments come up with additional incentives/subsidies
• Net/Gross metering is being developed in many states
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State policies focused on rooftop
29/10/2013
Net metering
• Bidirectional metering
• Monthly credits
• Annual settlements
States: Andhra Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Punjab,
West Bengal
FIT
• Fixed levelized tariff for 25 years
• Eur 0.12-0.13/kWh (INR10.36 -
11.57/kWh*)
• Applicable upto 1 MW
States: *Gujarat
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4. Solarizing Telecom Towers
29.10.2013
• 580,000 telecom towers; 5 billion litres diesel consumption/year
• 3 billion Euro diesel expenditure every year
• Diesel power @ Euro 0.17/kWh vs Solar @ Euro 0.09/kWh*
Cell sites Grid availability Description
10% >20 hrs Mainly metro cities like Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai etc.
20% 16-20 hrs Most cities and towns
30% 12-16 hrs Semi-urban and small urban towns
25% 8-12 hrs Mostly rural areas
15% <8 hrs
Off grid
Mostly parts of Bihar and some towns of Assam, NE
states, UP and J&K
Source: Telecom Authority of India
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* Without battery
Seite 23
I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Implemented by
Seite 24
Market developments so far..
29/10/2013
•Majority of installations are
ground mounted large power
plants (>2-3 MW)
•Share of rooftops <10%
(estimation)
•Long term plans of 20 GW till
2022
0.0
0.9
1.7
1.8
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 31.07.13
Solar PV installed capacity in India (GWs)
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0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
FIRST SOLAR
CANADIAN SOLAR
TRINA SOLAR
SHARP SOLAR
CHINT SOLAR
JINKO SOLAR
YINGLI SOLAR
C-SUN
NEX POWER
VIKRAM SOLAR
SUNWELL
SOLAR FRONTIER
MOSERBAER SOLAR
TATA POWER SOLAR
LANCO SOLAR
WAAREE ENERGIES
SUNTECH
DUPONT APOLLO
REC GROUP
EMMVEE
WEBEL SOLAR/RENESOLA
SCHUCO
ABOUND SOLAR
AVANCIS
MIASOLE
LDK SOLAR
HANWHA
T-SOLAR
SUNNER SOLAR
SOLAR WORLD
BHEL
JAIN IRRIGATION
PREMIER SOLAR
SCHOTT SOLAR
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Market share of Module suppliers
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Share of German companies – 2%
* This analysis should be taken as just an indicator and actual market share may differ
Seite 26
Market share of third party EPCs
29/10/2013
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0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%
MOSERBAER SOLAR
LARSEN AND TOUBRO
LANCO SOLAR
STERLING AND WILSON
JUWI ENERGY
VIKRAM SOLAR
MEGHA ENGINEERING
REFEX ENERGY
TATA POWER SOLAR
WIPRO ECOENERGY
WAAREE ENERGIES
ARIES WAAAREE
CIRUS SOLAR
INDU PROJECTS
MAHINDRA SOLAR
RAYS EXPERTS
EMMVEE SOLAR
ENFINITY SOLAR
ELECTROTHERM IMMODO
PREMIER SOLAR
SUNTECHNICS
BHEL
PHOTON
CHEMTROLS SOLAR
MADHAV POWER
ABB
INSOLARE ENERGY
SOLAR SEMICONDUCTOR
SUNBORNE ENERGY
Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Share of German companies – 6.4%
* This analysis should be taken as just an indicator and actual market share may differ
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0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
SMA
BONGFIGLIOLI
ABB
POWERONE
AEG
SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC
SIEMENS
SATCON
ELTEK VALERE
ELECTRONICA SANTERING
DELTA
HITACHI-HIREL
FECON
REFUSOL
IDS
INGETEAM
HELOFAX
KACO
FRONIUS
BOSCH
GAMESA
Market share of Inverter suppliers*
29/10/2013
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Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA
Share of German companies – 33.3%
* This analysis should be taken as just an indicator and actual market share may differ
Seite 28
I. About ComSolar
II. Electricity sector in India
III. Playground for rooftop solar
IV. Development of solar – so far
V. Challenges & market requirements
Implemented by
Seite 29
Challenges
29/10/2013
• Roofs are generally occupied
• Ownership structure is complicated
• Project debt financing is still developing
• High interest rates (12-14%)
• Insecurity in terms of building planning
• Land procurement is a tough task
• No strict quality assurance
• Price level / expectations are very low (e.g. SECI Tender EUR 1.02 / Wp)
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•Highly cost driven market – nothing gets sold if it does not make economic
sense
•Robust equipments and good quality execution – considering Indian
conditions
• Innovative products e.g. portable, plug and play systems
• Integration with Diesel generators/UPS systems
•Hybrid system – low grid availability
• Innovative economic/financial solutions
What is required in the Indian market?
29/10/2013
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Seite 31
Requirement for bidirectional inverters Source: PI Experts / GIZ, Comsolar
29.10.2013
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Frequent load shedding
requires economic
solution for:
Grid feeding / net
metering
Off-grid / Island
mode
Pure captive use
Back-up / DG
integration
Seite 32
Thank you!
[email protected] | [email protected]
ComSolar - Indo German Energy Programme
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
GIZ Office New Delhi
www.giz.de - www.comsolar.in
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Seite 33
Annexures
29.10.2013
Seite 34 29/10/2013
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Policy framework in India
Seite 35 company presentation 2012 29/10/2013
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