global market outlook - amazon s3...global market outlook market and industry analysis 2012 - 2017...
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4th July 2013
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017
Ioannis Thomas Theologitis
Business Analyst
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW
PV Market Status and Evolution
Market Scenarios
PV Industry Status and Evolution
Greek Case
OUTLINE
OUTLINE
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PV Market Status and Evolution
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Historical development of the PV market
Global PV market was stable in 2012
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW
More countries appeared on the map in 2012
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Global status
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Historical development of the PV market
European market went down in 2012
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market segmentation in Europe
European variety
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market segmentation in Europe
Market segmentation in key European markets
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW
PV on rooftops increases in Europe (from 65% to 72% of the market in 2012 compared to 2011)
In absolute value in Europe,
• Residential market grew from 2.9 to 3.3 GW
• Commercial/ industrial declined from 7.6 to 5.2 GW
• Ground mounted declined from 5.7 to 4.5 GW
Globally, FiT still dominates
Traditional support schemes are still dominant (GC/Grants)
Self-consumption represents 10% of the market
Net-metering is negligeable
Purely competitive PV is hard to assess
Development drivers
Market Segmentation
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10% 2%
65%
4%
18%
1%
PV development drivers
Self-consumption
Net-metering
FIT
ROC/RPS
Grants
Competitive PV
Green C Green Certificates
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Market Scenarios
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market forecasts for Europe
Business as usual vs Policy-driven scenarios for Europe
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market forecasts for Europe
2020 targets for PV have been already achieved in Europe
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Global market development
2 scenarios for global PV market development until 2017
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW
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EU market development
Europe will dominate Roof-top market
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Q2 2013
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW GMO 2013-2017
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Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013-2017
www.epia.org
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PV Industry Status and Evolution
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GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Industry Evolution
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Compound annual growth rate across PV value chain
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Industry Evolution
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PV technology trends
GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW
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Greek Case
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EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Greece
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EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
Until August 2012 market was very robust. Since then the Greek market has been facing several attacks: reduction of the FiT, restrictions of licenses for medium-large projects and retroactive measures which have created uncertainty.
Support scheme:
• FiT with clear evolution in 2013
Administrative and legal barriers:
PV Project Development: share of administrative costs, duration and waiting time(source: PV GRID Project)
2013 and beyond
• Market will develop due to past committed projects. Adverse financial environment is limiting development of new projects. Residential PV is favoured over large scale PV plants. Licensing of new large projects frozen since August 2012, retroactive taxation adopted in Q4 2012, huge delays for producers’ payments.
Greece – Political Context
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European Photovoltaic Industry Association
Renewable Energy House
Rue d’Arlon 63-67, 1040 Brussels - Belgium
T +32 (0)2 465 38 84 - F +32 (0)2 400 10 10
[email protected] - www.epia.org
www.epia.org
For more information or further details contact
Ioannis Thomas Theologitis [email protected]
EYΧΑΡΙΣΤΩ ΠΟΛΥ
ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΠΡΟΣΟΧΗ ΣΑΣ
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Back up slides
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Competitiveness of PV
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4. Results: roadmap to dynamic PV parity
in 11 European countries Probability of achieving dynamic PV parity in the Residential sector in 11 EU countries
• 25 PV Competitiveness Roadmaps in the Target Countries PV Parity Project
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
UK
PT
NL
IT-South
BE-W
BE-F
AT
IT-North
90% probability of PV grid parity
50% probability of PV grid parity
FR-South
FR-North
ES-South
ES-North
EL-South
DE-South
DE-North
CZ
EL-North
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Roadmap to dynamic PV Parity in the residential
sector in the target countries
• 26 PV Competitiveness Roadmaps in the Target Countries PV Parity Project
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
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• 27
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
PV Competitiveness Roadmaps in the Target Countries PV PARITY Project
Roadmap to dynamic PV Parity in the commercial
sector in the target countries
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Q2 2013
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
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PV Competitiveness in Europe is fragile
Hypothesis - Reasonably low WACC - Reasonnably Low PV System prices - Self-consumption (30%) - Resale of excess electricity at current
market prices - Etc.
And…
- Compensation of grid costs for self-
consumption!
2014
2014
2012
2015
2017
2016
2015
2014
2016
2019
2018
2019
2015
2018
2018
2020
2020
2017
2019
2020
France
Germany
ItalySpain
UK
Example in the residential sector
Favorable conditions (low WACC and prices)
Non-compensation of grid-costs
Non-compensation of taxes
Non-compensation of grid-costs and taxes
Source: « Connecting the Sun » – EPIA 2012
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Q2 2013
EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW
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Connecting the Sun Report
www.connectingthesun.eu
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Q2 2013
GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW
PV in buildings
Competitiveness in Europe ?
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Competitiveness of PV
Self-consumption must be allowed Taxes and grid costs compensation allowed as well Alternative grid financing
No additional grid connection requirements that
could reduce the revenues
Excess PV electricity can be sold on the electricity market
With electricity market prices that remain significant
Transition from an investors market to an energy-savings market quite uncertain
Road to full competitiveness is complex and dangerous