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The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016 Prices, Forecasts, Market Shares and Vendor Profiles Executive Summary Scott Moskowitz Senior Analyst, Solar [email protected] November 2016

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Page 1: The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Report H2 2016 ES · The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016 9 In some sense, little has changed in the inverter market. The market continues

The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

Prices, Forecasts, Market Shares and Vendor Profiles

Executive Summary

Scott Moskowitz

Senior Analyst, Solar

[email protected]

November 2016

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1The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

Scott Moskowitz, Senior Analyst, Solar | GTM Research

Scott Moskowitz is a Senior Analyst at GTM Research in the Solar PV Systems and Technologies practice, where his research focuses

on PV system design, inverters, balance-of-system components and global downstream markets. In addition to tracking the global

landscape of PV projects and balance-of-systems vendors, Scott was the Assistant Editor of PV News, the solar industry’s longest-

running market research periodical. Before joining GTM Research, Scott was active with Engineers Without Borders, where he co-led

a water and sanitation implementation project in the Peruvian Amazon. Scott holds a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering and

mathematics from Vanderbilt University and a master’s degree in environmental engineering from the University of California, Davis,

where his work focused on energy efficiency, life cycle analysis and environmental law.

About the Analyst

Scott MoskowitzSenior Analyst, Solar

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2The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

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3The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

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The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

Executive Summary1.

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5The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

Huawei and SMA Lead the H1 2016 Global PV Inverter Rankings as Market Consolidation Continues

Estimated Shipments: 38.4 GWac

Estimated Market: $3.20

Billion

Source: GTM Research

H1 2016 Global PV Inverter Market Shares by Shipments (MWac)

H1 2016 Global PV Inverter Market Shares by Revenue ($M)

*Estimate

*Estimate

Huawei, Sungrow lead H1 2016 global PV inverter shipment rankings

• Huawei and Sungrow both grew their global market share over the first half of

2016 due to leadership in world’s largest solar market, China; roughly 90% of

each company’s shipments are to that market

SMA holds the lead in global PV inverter revenue rankings in H1 2016

• SMA has gained share in the global revenue rankings over 2015, bolstered by its

leading position in the U.S. market

Market concentration reaches highest level since 2010

• The top-10 inverter vendors accounted for 80% of all shipments in H1 2016,

the highest level since 2010 when PV demand was concentrated in

continental Europe

• Ingeteam, the leading inverter vendor in Latin America, acquired the PV inverter

business of Bonfiglioli in June 2016 to accelerate its global expansion

• Given price pressure and diversifying global demand, we expect M&A activity to

continue

HuaweiSungrow Power SupplySMASinengTMEICTBEA SunOasisABB*KStarGeneral ElectricSolarEdge TechnologiesPower Electronics*Schneider Electric*All Others

SMAHuaweiTMEIC*SolarEdge TechnologiesABB*Sungrow Power SupplySchneider Electric*Enphase EnergyOmronFroniusSineng*General Electric*All Others

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6The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

Chinese Vendors Rise in H1 2016 Global Inverter Shipment Rankings After China Installation Rush

Source: GTM Research

Global PV Inverter Rankings by MWac Shipped, 2010-H1 2016

Rank 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

1 SMA - SMA - SMA - SMA - SMA - Huawei +2 Huawei -

2 Power-One +2 Power-One - Power-One - Sungrow +1 Sungrow - Sungrow - Sungrow -

3 KACO -1 KACO - Sungrow +2 ABB (Power-One) -1 Huawei +6 SMA -2 SMA -

4 Fronius -1 REFUsol +1 REFUsol -Omron Corporation

+14 ABB -1 ABB - Sineng +2

5 REFUsol +4 Sungrow +12 KACO -2 TMEIC +11 TBEA Sunoasis +1 TMEIC +1 TMEIC -

6 Santerno +4 Santerno - Advanced Energy +3 TBEA Sunoasis +19 TMEIC -1 Sineng +5 TBEA Sunoasis +1

7 SatCon +6 Fronius -3 Fronius -Advanced Energy (REFUsol)

-1Omron Corporation

-3 TBEA Sunoasis -2 ABB -3

8 SolarMax -2 SatCon -1 Schneider Electric +3 Emerson +8Schneider Electric

+2SchneiderElectric

- KStar +8

9 Danfoss +5 Advanced Energy +7 Samil Power +19 Huawei +22 Tabuchi Electric +3PowerElectronics

+3 General Electric +3

10 Delta +9 SolarMax -2 SolarMax - Schneider Electric -2 Advanced Energy -3SolarEdge Technologies

+10SolarEdge Technologies

-

Percentage of Global Shipments by Top-10 Suppliers

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

80% 69% 66% 55% 66% 72% 80%

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7The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

U.S. Inverter Pricing Pressure Has Accelerated in the Second Half of 2016

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

H1 2016 H2 2016E H1 2017E H2 2017E

Ave

rage

Sal

e P

rice

($

/Wac

)Microinverter Single-Phase String Three-Phase String

Central Standalone Central Solution DC Optimizer Attachment

Source: GTM Research

U.S. Short-Term PV Inverter Average Factory-Gate Price Forecast, H1 2016-H2 2017 ($/Wac)Central inverter prices have fallen nearly 10% since H1 2016 due to

pressure from Huawei and increased procurement of 1,500-volt inverters

• 1,500-volt inverters have quickly grown in popularity. Higher power

densities result in ASPs up to 10% lower than 1,000-volt inverters

Residential inverter prices falling, to accelerate with Huawei entrance in

2017

• SolarEdge’s and new entrants’ aggressive price reduction strategies

continues to add pressure in the residential market

• Mid-2017 introduction of residential optimizer/inverter solution from

Huawei will result in accelerated pricing declines for all residential inverter

solutions

Price pressure has put U.S. manufacturing landscape in flux

• Due to accelerated price declines, in mid-2016 ABB and SMA both

announced closure of U.S. manufacturing centers in order to consolidate

production in their European factories. Both companies remain

committed to the U.S. market.

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8The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021ESh

ipm

ents

(M

Wac

)

Europe North America Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey Sub-Saharan Africa

Global Market Declines in 2017 Followed by Steady Recovery as New Markets Emerge

• Global PV inverter shipments will reach a record 63.5 GWac in 2016, up

from 59.7 GWac in 2015. The three largest solar markets, China, the

United States and Japan will each decline in 2017, resulting in global

shipments falling 5.0% year-over-year to 60.3 Gwac

• Global inverter revenue will decline only 1.2% from $5.80 billion in 2016

to $5.73 billion in 2017 in spite of 5.0% shipment decline. Residential

string inverter and MLPE market value will rise 32% in 2017 and make

up for decline in utility solar demand.

• New markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia will be the fastest

growing regions globally from 2016 to 2021. Each region will grow at

CAGRs above 25% over that time.

• Overall, China will remain the largest solar market through 2021

though annual installations will decline due to lowering of national

solar target. The Japanese market additionally began a steady decline

in 2016.

• U.S. extension of the 30% Federal Investment Tax Credit will result in the

return of 20% annual growth in the U.S. market from 2018 to 2021 after

installations spike in 2016.

Source: GTM Research

Global PV Inverter Shipments by Region, 2015-2021E (MWac)

Global Shipments Decline

5.0% in 2017

*Note: GTM includes Turkey as part of the Middle East and North Africa region. This region is referred to as MENAT throughout this report.

2017-2021 CAGR = 14%

59,684

74,811

86,168

100,866

63,41260,328

66,648

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9The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

In some sense, little has changed in the inverter market. The market continues to consolidate and price pressure remains a constant, unrelenting reality. These are tenants of a

photovoltaic inverter market that has scaled and continues to mature. However, the market still rewards innovation and differentiation. Solar is a dynamic industry and there are always a

number of changes ahead. These are a few of the themes GTM Research is paying attention to:

• Drive for higher power density replacing the drive for higher efficiency: Efficiency remains a very valuable metric for inverters. However, efficiencies have largely peaked, and the most

promising path forward for inverters to improve overall LCOE is to reduce the cost of the inverter itself and associated balances of systems. Higher power densities that provide more

inverter in a smaller footprint help to achieve this.

• Ongoing consolidation that encourages differentiation: In a top-heavy market at scale, vendors hoping to gain share must provide a value proposition unavailable from leading

suppliers. The inverter market still has a number of smaller pure-play and regional vendors that compete on a combination of price and track record. In the long term, these

companies will need to differentiate in order to keep up with globalized and diversified suppliers.

• A nascent and undefined solar-plus-storage market that provides upside to margin-squeezed inverter vendors: The solar-plus-storage market is a growing and promising space, though

value propositions for storage vary significantly by market. The variability in solar-plus-storage business models provides a test for inverter vendors looking to standardize and scale

offerings. The market is challenging and still small relative to standalone PV, but vendors able to help define the market will be rewarded for their efforts.

• Aging PV projects, particularly in Europe and Japan, that result in a measurable, growing market for inverter replacements: A maturing market is also an aging one and warranty

expirations are looming for several gigawatts of installed inverters. The retrofit market is still small, but it will become more significant over the next several years.

• Growing need for communications protocols and control capabilities for utilities and grid operators: The obvious (and desired) result of the extension of the Federal Investment Tax Credit in

the U.S. is the accelerated penetration of PV onto the grid. Efforts to coordinate remote control of PV inverters for grid stability purposes, in the U.S. and elsewhere, are still in their

formative stages. However, the urgency for vendors and utilities to work together to respond to high penetration PV, and to enable further growth of the market, has increased.

The State of The Global PV Inverter and Module-Level Power Electronics Market

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10The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

Table of Contents from Full Report

1. Executive Summary 5

2. PV Inverter Prices and Forecasts 16

3. Global PV Inverter Forecasts 28

4. Regional and Major Market PV Inverter Forecasts 48

5. PV Inverter Market Shares and Competitive Analysis 67

6. Vendor Profiles 94

7. Appendix and Methodology 124

Thank you for reading the executive summary. The full report is over 100 pages and provides a comprehensive look at the global state of the PV inverter andMLPE market, including product forecasts and pricing (both globally and regionally out to 2020), market shares and detailed profiles of leading suppliers.

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11The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

List of Figures from Full Report

• H1 2016 Global PV Inverter Market Shares by Shipments

• H1 2016 Global PV Inverter Market Shares by Revenue

• Global PV Inverter Rankings by MWac Shipped, 2010-H1 2016

• Top-20 Inverter Vendors by Volume Shipped, H1 2016

• U.S. Short-Term PV Inverter Average Factory-Gate Price Forecast, H1 2016-H2 2017

• Global Factory-Gate PV Inverter Average Sale Prices by Product Type, 2015-2021E

• Global PV Inverter Shipments by Region, 2015-2021E

• Global PV Inverter Shipments by Product Type, 2015-2021E

• Global PV Inverter Market Value by Product Type and Region

• Top-20 PV Inverter Markets by Shipment Volume, 2017E-2021E

• Global Factory-Gate Inverter Average Sale Price Forecast Product Type, 2015-2021E

• Region vs Global ASPs by Market Segment, Full-Year 2016

• U.S. Short-Term PV Inverter Average Factory-Gate Price Forecast, H1 2016-2017 H2

• Notable U.S. PV Inverter Manufacturing Facilities

• Microinverter Factory-Gate Average Sale Price Forecast, 2015-2021E

• DC Optimizer Factory-Gate Average Sale Price Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Single-Phase String Inverter Factory-Gate Average Sale Price Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Three-Phase String Inverter Factory-Gate Average Sale Price Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Central Inverter Factory-Gate Average Sale Price Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Central Inverter Solution Factory-Gate Average Sale Price Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Annual Global PV Installed Capacity, 2005-2021E

• Top Solar Markets’ Global Demand Share by Installations

• Global PV Market Segmentation by Installations

• Global Segmented PV Demand, 2015-2021E

• Global PV Inverter Shipments and Installations, 2009-2021E

• Global PV Inverter Shipments by Product Type, 2015-2021E

• Global PV Inverter Market Value by Product Type, 2015-2021E

• Global PV Inverter Shipments and Market Value by Region, 2015-2021E

• Microinverter Shipment and Market Value Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• DC Optimizer Shipment and Market Value Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• Global Smart and AC Module Shipment Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• Smart and AC Module Partnerships, November 2016

• Single-Phase String Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• Three-Phase String Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• Central Inverter Standalone Shipment and Market Value Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• Central Inverter Solution Shipment and Market Value Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• All Central Inverter Shipments and Market Value Forecasts, 2015-2021E

• 1,500-Volt PV System Installations by Region, 2014-2021E

• Global Landscape of Announced 1,500-Volt PV Products, November 2016

• Global Installations by Inverter Type for Utility Projects (5 MW+), 2015-2021E

• North America Installations by Inverter Type for Utility Projects (5 MW+), 2015-2021E

• Utility PV Inverter Forecast, 2015–2020E

• Top-20 PV Inverter Markets by Shipment Volume, 2017E-2021E

• APAC PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E (MWac and $M

• China PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Japan PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• India PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Philippines PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Thailand PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2020E

• Europe PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• France PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• North America PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• U.S. PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Canada PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Current NEC Adoption by State, March 2016

• U.S Residential Market Inverter Installation Breakdown, 2015-2021E

• Latin America PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Brazil PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Mexico PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Chile PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

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12The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

List of Figures from Full Report (Continued)

• MENAT PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• Sub-Saharan Africa PV Inverter Shipment and Market Value Forecast, 2015-2021E

• H1 2016 Global PV Inverter Market Shares by Shipments

• H1 2016 Global PV Inverter Market Shares by Revenue

• Market Share Breakdown of Global Shipments by Vendors Ranked, H1 2016

• Global PV Inverter Rankings by MWac Shipped, 2010-H1 2016

• Global PV Inverter Market Taxonomy, November 2016

• H1 2016 Global Module-Level Power Electronics Market Shares

• H1 2016 Global Microinverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 Global DC Optimizer Market Shares

• H1 2016 Global Single-Phase String Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 Global Three-Phase String Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 Global Central Inverter Market Shares

• Top-20 Inverter Vendors by Volume Shipped, H1 2016

• H1 2016 China PV Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 Japan PV Inverter Market Shares

• Japan PV Inverter Market Taxonomy, November 2016

• H1 2016 India PV Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 Europe PV Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 Latin America PV Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 Middle East and Africa PV Inverter Market Shares

• United States PV Inverter Market Taxonomy, November 2016

• H1 2016 U.S. Overall PV Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 United States Module-Level Power Electronics Market Shares

• H1 2016 United States Single-Phase String Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 United States Three-Phase String Inverter Market Shares

• H1 2016 United States Central Inverter Market Shares

Vendors Profiled:

• ABB

• APSystems

• Chint Power Systems

• Daihen Corporation

• Delta Energy Systems

• Eaton

• Enphase Energy

• Fronius

• Fuji Electric

• Gamesa

• General Electric

• Ginlong Solis

• GPTech

• Hitachi

• Huawei

• Ingeteam

• KACO New Energy

• Omron

• Power Electronics

• Schneider Electric

• Sineng

• SMA

• SolarEdge Technologies

• Sungrow Power Supply

• Tabuchi Electric

• TBEA Sunoasis

• Tigo Energy

• TMEIC

• Yaskawa-Solectria Solar

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13The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape H2 2016

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