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  • ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium.

    Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series

    2/5/2013 ICRISAT Patancheru, India, S.Nedumaran@cgiar.org

    Series Paper Number 2

    Sorghum and Millets Futures in Asia under Changing Socio-economic and Climate

    Scenarios

    S Nedumaran, P Abinaya and MCS Bantilan

  • DISCLAIMER This paper is part of ICRISAT Economics Discussion paper series.. This series

    disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about a wide array of issues in the area of agriculture for development. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. Any comments and suggestions are more than welcome and should be addressed to the author who’s contact details can be found at the bottom of the cover page. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics and its affiliated organizations.

    ICRISAT - Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series

  • Sorghum and Millets Futures in Asia under Changing Socio-economic and Climate Scenarios

    ICRISAT - Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series 1

    Abstract The foremost determinants of agricultural production in much of the developing

    world are weather conditions and water availability, both of which are susceptible to the vagaries of climate. Any policy interventions that might make a difference to the global food situation in the future, but coupled with the harmful effects of climate change, the full benefits of these reforms may not be passed on to the wider agricultural community. In this report, we analyse the plausible futures of dryland cereals, namely millet and sorghum, under alternative policy and climate scenarios to assess the direction and probable magnitude of the change in supply and world prices of these cereals, particularly in the semi-arid tropics of Asia. We also examine the impact of the policy scenarios on human welfare such as child malnutrition and per capita calorie intake across countries. The human populations of the dryland live in increasing insecurity due to land degradation and desertification. Livelihood of the people in the dryland tropics will be affected by climate change if no measure is taken to check its disastrous implications on dryland farming. Various adaptation strategies are required to manage the possible risks that the agricultural population might face due to the impact of growing population and climate change. Diversification into livestock production is one viable alternative available to cushion the income losses from falling cereal demand. Income plays a major role in removing the constraints for adopting new technologies and enhancing accessibility to them. Changing consumption pattern is significant fallout of the rise in middle income group which prefers livestock products to cereals. Sorghum and millet having traits most suited for dryland farming will satisfy the growing food and feed demand than any other crop, being able to withstand water scarcity and rising temperatures. Indeed, the following analysis shows these cereals to be more resilient to climate change than maize, a substitute for these crops.

    Keywords: Dryland cereals; foresight and projections; IMPACT model; Climate

    change JEL classification: Q11, Q16

  • Sorghum and Millets Futures in Asia under Changing Socio-economic and Climate Scenarios

    ICRISAT - Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series 2

    Contents Sorghum and Millets Futures in Asia under Changing Socio-economic and

    Climate Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 1

    Abstract ................................................................................................................ 1

    1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 4

    2 Historical Trends ............................................................................................... 6

    2.1 Area and Production Trends of Millet ......................................................... 6

    2.2 Area and Production Trends of Sorghum ................................................... 7

    2.3 Consumption Trends and Dynamics for Millet ............................................ 7

    2.4 Consumption Trends and Dynamics for Sorghum ...................................... 8

    3 Scenario-Based Analysis of Dryland Futures .................................................... 8

    3.1 Key Elements of Scenario Building ............................................................ 9

    4 The IMPACT Model ........................................................................................ 11

    4.1 Modeling Methodology of IMPACT ........................................................... 11

    4.2 Spatial Coverage of IMPACT ................................................................... 12

    4.3 Crop Model Incorporation ......................................................................... 13

    4.4 Model Calibration, Validation and Interpretation ....................................... 15

    4.5 Model Validation ....................................................................................... 16

    4.6 Interpretation of results ............................................................................. 16

    5 Considering Alternative Futures for Dryland Crops ......................................... 17

    5.1 Key Drivers of Change ............................................................................. 17

    5.2 Plausible Futures and Alternative Scenarios considered ......................... 18

    6 Projections and Outlooks for Dryland Crops ................................................... 18

    6.1 Baseline Projections for Millet .................................................................. 18

    6.2 Net Trade Projections for Millet ................................................................ 20

    6.3 Baseline Projections for Sorghum ............................................................ 20

    6.4 Net Trade Projections for Sorghum .......................................................... 21

    6.5 Baseline Projections of Malnourished Children ........................................ 21

    6.6 Baseline Price Dynamics .......................................................................... 22

    6.7 Summary of Baseline Projections............................................................. 23

    6.7.1 Millet .................................................................................................. 23

    6.7.2 Sorghum ............................................................................................ 23

    7 Analysis of Scenario Outcomes ...................................................................... 24

    7.1 Optimistic Scenario Projections for Millet ................................................. 24

  • Sorghum and Millets Futures in Asia under Changing Socio-economic and Climate Scenarios

    ICRISAT - Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series 3

    7.2 Pessimistic Scenario Projections for Millet ............................................... 25

    7.3 Optimistic Scenario Projections for Sorghum ........................................... 26

    7.4 Pessimistic Scenario Projections for Sorghum ......................................... 27

    7.5 Malnourishment under Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios .................. 28

    7.6 Food Security under Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios ...................... 28

    7.7 Summary of Key Findings from Alternative Policy Scenarios ................... 29

    7.7.1 Millet .................................................................................................. 29

    7.7.2 Sorghum ............................................................................................ 29

    8 Climate Change .............................................................................................. 30

    8.1 Climate Change Drivers ........................................................................... 30

    8.2 Baseline Projections under Rainfed and Irrigated Environments ............. 31

    8.2.1 Projections of Area, Yield and Production of Millet ............................ 31

    8.2.2 Projections of Area, Yield and Production of Sorghum ...................... 32

    8.3 Description of Climate Scenarios ............................................................. 33

    8.3.1 Climate Scenario Projections for Millet .............................................. 34

    8.3.2 Climate Scenario Projections for Sorghum ........................................ 35

    8.3.3 Changes in price level under Climate Scenarios ............................... 36

    8.3.4 Comparative analysis with maize under climate change .................. 36

    9 Conclusions and Policy Implications ............................................................... 37

    5 References[examples can be found in the guidlines] ...................................... 41

    Appendixes [limit the number to only the absolutely necessary] .......................