Community Socioeconomics:

North Aleutian Basin

Edward W. GlazierImpact Assessment, Inc. (IAI)

The intent of this presentation is to discuss previous MMS socioeconomic research conducted in the NAB, and a theoretical orientation for conducting such work in advance of prospective future OCS development in the region

IAI’s early work in the NAB, now 25 years ago, included a 20-year forecast of socioeconomic conditions in the absence of OCS development (see MMS TR-75, subsequently published as A Systems Approach to Social Impact Assessment, 1985, Boulder: Westview Press)

The work was intended as baseline against which development scenarios & OCS-related socioeconomic change could be assessed; forecasts were based on systematic ethnographic work in communities in AEB & points west

Similar work was undertaken by IAI in Bristol Bay (see MMS TR-103) & other areas potentially affected by prospective OCS industry activity (see MMS TR-92, 93, 103, 126, 128, 139, 140)

The research was organized to enable assessment of long-term social change with/without OCS devel.

Three components were involved: (1) OCS development assumptions/scenarios based on industry needs & interests, (2) examination & description of baseline social, cultural, and economic conditions against which OCS-related changes could be assessed while controlling for other sources of change, and (3) evaluation of potential socioeconomic effects of OCS development at state, regional & local levels of analysis

A systems modeling approach was used to assess relationships between social structural aspects of the communities and agents or forces of change

The approach was applied along many dimensions: ecology, demography, economics, socio-politics, social networks, education, health care, and religion

It was attentive to factors such as economic stratification, the effects of external revenue on subsistence practices, and intra-regional variation in effects of involvement in commercial fisheries

ANCSA was relatively new and a new(er) economic order was developing; commercial fisheries were growing and limited entry fisheries were being introduced; technology was improving the efficiency of pursuit of natural resources

The dominant source of change was projected to be growth of commercial fisheries & closer integration of local/indigenous society with more formalized systems of social and political interaction

This led to forecasts (working hypotheses) that then-current trends of social change would extend into 2002 (even in the absence of OCS development)

Select 1982 Hypotheses about NAB Communities:

Commercial salmon resources would increasingly constitute an important basis of social & economic change

Growth of non-indigenous populations would be less significant than other projections were indicating, due in part to the effects of ANCSA and limited entry fisheries

Increased income & predominance of the cash economy were seen as likely, but class dichotomization would occur where involvement in comm. fisheries mixed

Cold Bay

Aleutians East BoroughPrimary Fish Processed

0 30 60 90 12015

Miles

Nelson Lagoon

Akutan

False Pass

Dutch Harbor

King Cove

9

2 Sand Point

Salmon

Groundfish

Crab

Shore Plant (number)

CDQCommunity

2

Egekik

Naknek

Togiak

Ugashik

Newhalen

Nondalton

Manokotak Dillingham

Port Heiden

Pilot Point

King Salmon

South Naknek

New Stuyahok

Goodnews Bay

Clark's Point

Bristol Bay

0 25 50 75 100

Miles

Commerical Permits

Active Fishermen

Vessels

5 to

5 to

195

173

3 to 147

Commercial Fishing Permitand Vessel Activity: 2005

Increased correlation between income, economic wealth, and political power would be likely

Social & economic interaction and political structures in indigenous communities would become more formalized

Traditional means of subsistence would decline given increasing availability of imported goods

Adoption of “mainstream” material & social values would accelerate at the expense of traditional orientations

In short, there was emphasis on probable responses to exogenous social & economic sources of change, & prediction: integration of traditional/indigenous and capitalist/American-Alaskan societies inevitable

While some of the hypotheses can now be observed as valid, there is much depth to the story, and a T-2 round of detailed ethnographic work would aid in adequately assessing social change in the region since 1982

This would be highly instructive given ongoing potential for OCS development & associated introduction of new agents & forces of change in this unique region of Alaska

Given lessons that have been learned since 1982, future analysis is likely to indicate that traditional Unangan, Alutiiq (& other Alaska Native) values & lifeways being enacted with more resilience than was hypothesized

Actually, the authors did recognize the complexity of social change & the probability that indigenous residents would retain individual and collective agency (p. ix):

“In spite of the adoption of western values there will be a reversal of trends toward the amalgamation of ethnic identities and a renewal of the strength of [indigenous] ethnic identity . .”

Indeed, it is possible to accommodate exogenous forces & factors of change without fully adopting them or sacrificing identity, and many would argue that Unangan and Alutiiq identity are most durable. In fact, indigenous societies have persisted for millenia in Alaska despite a range of challenging factors

This is highly significant in this context as it is clearly possible for Alaska Natives to nurture identity & associated lifeways while accommodating, articulating with, or otherwise responding to external forces of change

Cash and capital are now clearly seen as enabling subsistence-oriented lifeways and associated cultural practices. These aspects of life are not mutually exclusive.

But one should not infer that these differing ways of life are typically compatible or that attending to traditional lifeways is easy given the pressures of modern societies

In fact, a conundrum is often generated. That is, cash is required in the modern context, but in the absence of opportunity it is not easily acquired, particularly if one highly values subsistence practices & associated traditional-cultural lifeways, as these unavoidably require time and energy that cannot be given to capitalist ideals

As such, forms of economic opportunity that readily enable rather than obviate Alaska Native cultural traditions and practices are typically highly desirable to the practitioners

Understanding the aforementioned conundrum and indigenous interests, and the way these have played out over time in the NAB are critically important dimensions of social analysis to be considered in advance of potential OCS development or other source of planned change in the region

Particularly important given large % of Alaska Natives living in region, local importance of comm. fisheries, extensive Outside participation in comm. fisheries, few employment alternatives, existing socioeconomic conditions in many communities

pop 4283

pop 713

pop 64

pop 88

False Pass

Cold Bay

King Cove Sand Point

Nelson Lagoon

pop 83

pop 792 pop 952

Aleutians East BoroughSelect Demographics

Source: Census 2000

0 30 60 90 12015

Miles

Unemployed

Employed

Alaska Native

Non Alaska Native

Below Poverty

Above Poverty

Akutan

Unalaska/Dutch Harbor

0 25 50 75 100

Miles

Egekik

Naknek

Togiak

Ugashik

Newhalen

Nondalton

Manokotak Dillingham

Port Heiden

Pilot Point

King Salmon

South Naknek

New Stuyahok

Goodnews Bay

Clark's Point

Bristol BaySelect Demographics

Source: Census 2000

Unemployed

Employed

Alaska Native

Non Alaska Native

Below Poverty

Above Poverty0 25 50 75 100

Miles

pop 230

pop 442

pop 678

pop 137

pop 809pop 399

pop 471

pop 75

pop 2466

pop 178

pop 160

pop 166

pop 119

pop 11

pop 100

The likely community-level social and economic effects of development on the NAB OCS cannot be immediately analyzed or answered

Although recent social research in the region has covered a broad geographic area (e.g., NMFS fishing community research), its depth of coverage has generally been limited to specific programmatic needs that yield information that is useful but inadequate for generating sufficient understanding of socioeconomic change & its correlates

Comprehensive social assessment would require work at the level of detail previously conducted for MMS in the region, & careful monitoring of select social and economic variables and indicators over the course of time

Logically, the research would address the nature of participation of indigenous and non-indigenous residents in predominant & subsidiary industries in the region; the potential nature of their involvement in, or interface with prospective oil & gas industry activity in the NAB; & the dynamic-interactive effects of such participation on involvement in traditional cultural practices

Commercial Permit Trends: AEB Communities

0

50

100

150

200

250

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elson

Lag

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ove

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elson

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Number ofPermits

Number ofPermit Holders

Commercial Permit Trends: Bristol Bay Communities

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

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1985 1995 2005

Number ofPermits

Number ofPermit Holders

Finally, as per the logic of TR-75 and associated research, future assessment must be designed so that the effects of non-OCS sources of change (e.g., salmon abundance or lack thereof, or opportunities associated with Pebble Mine) are analytically controlled, thereby enabling measurement and adequate understanding of the potential (or actual) local and regional social and economic effects of specific industry actions on the NAB OCS. This is increasingly challenging given that many sources of change are now seen as global in scope and effect

[Animated Landings Trends: Aleutians East Borough (w/Unalaska/Dutch Harbor]

[Animated Landings Trends: Bristol Bay Communities]

Effective social assessment will also need to address the potential for spatial conflict/competition between local (indigenous or non-indigenous) fishing interests and the interests of the oil & gas and other maritime industries potentially active on or adjacent to the NAB OCS (see MMS Study OCS 2004-038)

This would also require assessment of the larger systems of navigation and maritime traffic through Unimak Pass and elsewhere in the region

Various social science research projects have been conducted in the North Aleutian Basin over the last decade [these may be reviewed later in the workshop]

But the detailed descriptive & theoretically-based research that enabled MMS to comprehensively characterize socioeconomic & socio-cultural aspects of life in the NAB in the early 1980s has not yet been replicated in the region, leaving a series of important hypotheses not fully tested

By comprehensively revisiting old [and new] socioeconomic variables and theoretical perspectives in advance of prospective further social change, analysts would be able to continue the long-term systematic research begun in the region in the 1980s, and in so doing:

(1) advance understanding of the human implications of OCS scenarios in the NAB, (2) satisfy NEPA- and OCSLA-related social-analytical mandates, and (3) generate sufficient information for developing policy that could serve to enhance the life experiences of persons residing in adjacent communities

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