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ETCETERA is an FP7-funded project Contract No. 261512

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EVALUATION OF CRITICAL AND EMERGING SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE ELABORATION OF A STRATEGIC RESEARCH AGENDA

DELIVERABLE 6.2

Report on Development and Application of an Economic Model concerning High Risk/High Payoff

Socio-economic Model for the Assessment of Emerging Security Technologies Authors: Antje Bierwisch (Fraunhofer ISI) Stephan Grandt (Fraunhofer ISI) Victoria Kayser (Fraunhofer ISI)

October 2013


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1 Introduction 5

2 The assessment approach 6

2.1 Qualitative information procurement for the socio-economic model 8

2.2 Quantitative Methods as decision aids 8

2.2.1 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 8

2.2.2 Selection of the appropriate aggregation method 9

3 Socio-economic model – design 9

3.1 Technical Dimension 9

3.1.1 Publication/Patent activity 9

3.1.2 Research & Development activities for realization 10

3.1.3 Life Cycle 10

3.1.4 Security Relevance 10

3.1.5 Application Potential 11

3.1.6 Misuse of Technology 11

3.1.7 Current Utilization 12

3.2 Economical Dimension 12

3.2.1 Market Potential 12

3.2.2 Time Frame and Maturity 13

3.2.3 Substitution Effects 13

3.2.4 Indirect Costs of Development 14

3.2.5 Direct Costs of Development 14

3.2.6 Public Funding of Development 14

3.2.7 Private Funding of Development 15

3.2.8 Qualified and Trained People 15

3.3 Societal Dimension 16

3.3.1 Privacy Issues 16

3.3.2 Physical or Mental Harms – Misuse 16

3.3.3 Acceptance - Perceived Ease of Use 17

3.3.4 Acceptance – Perceived Usefulness 17

3.3.5 Aspects Concerning Health Issues 17


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3.4 Ecological Dimension 18

3.4.1 Recycling & Waste Disposal 18

3.4.2 Resource Efforts and Consumption of Critical Resources 19

3.5 Legal & Political Dimension 19

3.5.1 Subvention 19

3.5.2 Regulation 19

3.5.3 Standardization for European Market Potential 20

3.6 Scenario Dimension - Drivers and Barriers 20

3.6.1 The Scenarios and their characteristics for the different dimensions 22

3.6.2 Short Description of the emerging security technologies 25

3.6.3 Homomorphic Encryption - Drivers and Barriers 26

3.6.4 Cognitive Radio - Drivers and Barriers 30

3.6.5 Small-Scale Energy Harvesting - Drivers and Barriers 32

3.6.6 Indoor Navigation - Drivers and Barriers 35

3.6.7 Smart Textiles - Drivers and Barriers 38

3.6.8 Sensor Technologies - Drivers and Barriers 41

4 Results and Conclusions 43

4.1 Results of the qualitative assessment 44

4.1.1 Ranking of the emerging security technologies 44

4.1.2 Sensitivity Analysis 48

4.2 Results of the quantitative assessment 49

4.2.1 Ranking of the emerging technologies 49


4.3 Results of the quantitative assessment under the additional consideration of general drivers and barriers 54

4.3.1 Ranking of the emerging security technologies 55


4.4 Comparison of the qualitative and quantitative results 61

4.4.1 Global results of the socio-economic model combining the qualitative and quantitative assessment 61

4.4.2 Scenario Influence Analysis concerning the emerging security technologies 63

4.5 Conclusion 65

5 Literature 67


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6 Appendix 68

6.1 Online Survey 68

6.2 Assessed Dimensions for the emerging security technologies 83

6.2.1 Homomorphic Encryption 83

6.2.2 Cognitive radio 84

6.2.3 Small-Scale Energy Harvesting 86

6.2.4 Smart Textiles 89

6.2.5 Sensor Technologies 91


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1 Introduction

In this report, a socio-economic model for the assessment of emerging security technologies is developed. Therefore, a multi-criteria decision analysis with several dimensions is conducted. Within this model, qualitative and quantitative data will be considered to fulfil the requirements of a holistic assessment approach by integrating expert opinions and quantitative facts. The bases of the socio-economic model are the results of the previous work packages as well as the output of the scenario workshops and the online survey1 executed by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI. In the following, the assessment approach, including the description of the socio-economic model and its qualitative information procurement as well as the multi-criteria analysis is firstly described. After that, the specific dimensions (technological, economical, social, ecologic and legal & political) and criteria of the socio-economic model and its considered aspects are introduced. Also, the four future scenarios developed in Task 5.3 are used as a further dimension, containing drivers and barriers which were identified as explicitly relevant. The results of the analysis are described in the last section.

1 Because of the limited time frame, the execution of the online survey was seen as a test run for the socio-economic model and was executed on an overall sample of 106 security experts. Thereby the Fraunhofer ISI received a full reply by 30 participants and a partially feedback from additional 44 attendants. The complete survey is listed in the appendix 5.1. The number of technology specific replies was as follows: Homomorphic Encryption (11), Cognitive Radio (9), Small-scale Energy Harvesting (15), Indoor Navigation (23), Smart Textiles (25) and Terahertz (8). The organizational distribution was as follows: Industry (7), non-university and university Research Institutes (13) and Politics (3).


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2 The assessment approach

The socio-economic model for the assessment of emerging security technologies developed by the Fraunhofer ISI combines the advantages of quantitative methods as decision aids and qualitative foresight methods in the form of the scenario method. Therefore, an evaluation model was developed to integrate quantitative data as well as qualitative data. To fulfil the requirements of a holistic assessment approach, the model contains different dimensions being evaluated within the process in orientation on a standard PESTLE analysis. This analysis identifies barriers as well success factors that are likely to influence future development in the mid- or long-term manner. This approach is supposed to assist stakeholders to better understand the embedding of innovation in a whole innovation system and their links to different aspects. The dimensions considered are:

Technical Dimension Economical Dimension Societal Dimension Ecological Dimension Legal & Political Dimension Scenario Dimension (Drivers/Barriers)

They are described in detail in the following chapter. These dimensions contain in turn different criteria being all relevant to the assessment of emerging security technologies. The basis of the selection of the dimensions and criteria had been, on the one hand, the results of the scenario workshops executed by Fraunhofer ISI and, on the other hand, the previous work of the consortium members who carried out a comparative analysis in Task 4.2. An additional literature study was performed to check the identified dimensions and criteria for their completeness. However, an assurance of completeness cannot be given due to the possibility of integrating further perspectives. Regarding the problem definition of the project ETCETERA, all mainly relevant dimensions and criteria are considered. The following figure shows an overview of the relevant dimensions and the included criteria identified within the process. They are described in detail in the following chapter. It also includes the technologies assessed by the model and a proposal of possible stakeholders who could be differentiated.


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Figure 1: Dimensions and criteria of the technology assessment


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2.1 Qualitative information procurement for the socio-economic model The socio-economic model was passed through twice. The assessment of the emerging security technologies is conducted both in a quantitative and a qualitative way. The qualitative evaluation refers to previous results from work package 5 and 4 and is based on a comprehensive analysis of market studies and scientific publications. Desk research has supplemented this analysis. Furthermore, the qualitative socio-economic model shall be supported by the results of the scenario workshop performed in within the previous work packages by Fraunhofer ISI. Here, specific drivers and barriers were identified, which are influencing the development of the emerging technologies within four selected scenarios in a different way. The scenarios and the identified drivers and barriers concerning the six security technologies are presented in Chapter 3.6. In addition, a quantitative evaluation that will resort to the results of an online survey is executed by Fraunhofer ISI. This approach allows supporting the earlier qualitative assessments by broad expert estimations. The online survey can be found in the Appendix. First of all, the experts could choose on which of the six selected technologies they can make a statement. Then, they were asked for weightings for each selected technology. Finally, the dimensions were ranked. Up until now, we received a feedback from about 30 survey participants. So it is possible to present first insights and results regarding the evaluation based on the survey data. Finally, both assessments will be compared to identify critical dimensions and criteria depending on the respective perspective.

2.2 Quantitative Methods as decision aids The identification and interpretation of technological innovation within its development process is widely considered as one of the most important factors regarding the competitive capability of an organization. An innovation and technology management configured for this purpose can be perceived as a connector between technology supplies, on the one hand, and societal needs, on the other hand (Geldermann, 2006). Here, specific methods and processes of operations research (OR) are applied to the technology assessment under the consideration of not purely technical dimensions.

2.2.1 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

The OR is primarily engaged in the development and the application of quantitative models and methods for the decision aids. In the context of the project specific problem, the multi-criteria methods are of special interest. In principle, they had been developed to solve the disadvantages of classical optimization methods. For instance, they offer the opportunity to integrate different interest groups in economical as well as political and societal decision processes in which a decision concerning the selection of the most appropriate alternative is faced. Consequently, this offers the opportunity to regard conflicting interests and subjective judgments within the decision making (Zimmermann & Gutsche, 1991). Moreover, the MCDA methods ensure the consideration of multiple perspectives in the form of different stakeholders. This is seen as a significant advantage of the methods, which could be taken into account to manage the different expert opinions generated within the course of the ETCETERA project. The multi-criteria methods are distinguished in Multi-Attribute Methods (MADM) and Multi-Objective Methods (MODM). Regarding the specific


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requirements of the ETCETERA project, the MADM processes are of special interest since qualitative and quantitative criteria of a socio-economic model for the assessment of emerging security technologies can be combined within these processes. On the one hand, multiple alternatives in the form of different clearly defined and separated technologies are considered. On the other hand, these methods allow the integration of multiple stakeholders into the decision process. The MADM methods assess different alternatives on the basis of individual dimensions and criteria which reflect the preferences of the decision maker. Concerning the total evaluation of the alternatives, there are different aggregation methods available which are separated into the American and European school (Geldermann, Zhang, & Rentz, 2002).

2.2.2 Selection of the appropriate aggregation method

The present study applies the methods of the European school because they, in contrast to the methods of the American school, represent the assumption that the decision maker isn’t quite aware about his preferences. The result is a decision support system being able to treat conflicting information and to show the consequences of different criteria weighting (Geldermann & Rentz, 2001). Among the most popular methods are PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Methode for Enrichment Evaluations) und ELECTRE (Elimination et choix traduisant la réalité) which are able to map indifference or weak preferences regarding specific criteria in the evaluation. In most cases, PROMETHEE is preferable to ELECTRE since the used algorithm is more transparent, plain and easier to implement (Hyde, Maier, & Colby, 2003). Moreover, the results generated are significantly more stable (Brans, Vincke, & Mareschal, 1986) and the possibility for the clear visualisation of the results is given (Polatidis & Haralambopoulos, 2007). Furthermore, the compensation of “good criteria” by “bad criteria” can be prevented through the application of the PROMETHEE method (Beccali, Cellura, & Mistretta, 2003).

3 Socio-economic model – design

3.1 Technical Dimension The technical dimension considers aspects which are directly or indirectly related to the technologies themselves and which are mainly relevant to the development and application. On the one hand, it includes aspects concerning the supply side which focus on R&D, publication, patent and activities. Furthermore, the life cycle of the technology is examined. In addition, aspects which focus on the demand side and especially consider the end-user perspective are listed here. Beside the security relevance and the application potential of the technology, the misuse potential as well as the current utilization of the technology is looked at in the following.

3.1.1 Publication/Patent activity

This criterion describes the current publication and patent activity as the results of research in the specific examined area. Usually, the publication activity can be recognized upstream to the patent activity and so their economic exploitation as well. This permits to draw conclusions about the relative future relevance of the examined security technology. The assessment is based on bibliometrics and patent data. The scale for the qualitative assessment is:


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Zero – no patent and publication data in this technology field Low – small/limited number of patents and publications in the technology field Medium – an average number of patents and publications in the technology field High – a high number of patents and publications in the technology field2

3.1.2 Research & Development activities for realization

This criterion focuses on research and development activities for the realization of the specific technology until 2020 to 2030. Beside the quantitative estimations in the form of the previous publication and patent activity, this criterion shall estimate in a qualitative way the effort required to bring the technology to the point of maturity from today. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on results of the online survey. The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the realization of the technology “no R&D activities” are necessary Low – the realization of the technology “limit R&D activities and efforts” are

necessary Medium – the realization of the technology “average R&D activities and efforts” are

necessary High – the realization of the technology “high R&D activities and efforts” are

necessary

3.1.3 Life Cycle

This criterion looks at the life cycle of the individual technology. The technology life cycle is concerned with the time and costs of the technology development, the timeline of recovering costs and modes of making the technology yield a profit proportionate to the costs and risks involved. Linked with the patent activity mentioned above, seeking to lengthen the cycle and to maximize the profit from it, this criterion describes the general expected life cycle of the specific technology considering its enhancement potential and diverse types of the security technology. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on results of the online survey. The scale for both assessments is as follows:

Zero – the expectations of no life cycle Low – the expectations of a life cycle length up to three years Medium – the expectations of a life cycle length between three and seven years High – the expectations of a life cycle length over seven years

3.1.4 Security Relevance

This criterion describes obvious and intricate relations to security applications or public security issues. It elaborates if and how security issues benefit directly from such a

2 This dimension is not taken into account in the online survey since the assessment is evaluated by the expert as rather difficult.


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technology (i.e. research and development explicitly address security applications or security demand) or whether there is an indirect impact on security issues (e.g. general capability improvements like increased endurance of mobile devices). It evaluates if this technology could help to eliminate a current or future security capability gap. It considers the usefulness for security applications as well as any misuse potential. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The scale for this assessment is numerical. The theoretical range of ratings goes from -3 to +6 with -3 as most negative estimation and 6 as most positive estimation. The quantitative assessment is based on results of the online survey. The scale for the quantitative assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected security relevance regarding the technology is not existent Low – the expected security relevance regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected security relevance regarding the technology is average High – the expected security relevance regarding the technology is high

3.1.5 Application Potential

Based on the explanations given in the section “Security Relevance”, this criterion describes how this technology could help in facilitating security duties and responsibilities. In general, it evaluates the significant chances and benefits for security agencies and the protection of society. On the one hand, it considers concrete applications, and on the other hand, the difference between the current situation and future possibilities due to this new technology. Societal trends which might have impact on or be influenced by this technology (e.g. influences of smartphones in daily life today and their relation to security issues) had also been examined. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The scale for this assessment is numerical. The theoretical range of ratings goes from -3 to +3 with -3 as most negative estimation and 3 as most positive estimation. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey. The scale for the quantitative assessments is as follows:

Zero – the expected application potential regarding the technology is not existent Low – the expected application potential regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected application potential regarding the technology is average High – the expected application potential regarding the technology is high

3.1.6 Misuse of Technology

Based on the explanations given in the section “security relevance”, this criterion describes how a new quality or quantity of misuse could be enabled. On the one hand, it considers concrete applications, and on the other hand, the difference between the current situation and future possibilities due to this new technology. In general, this criterion evaluates the significant opportunities for criminal acts and terrorist attacks. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The scale for this assessment is numerical. The theoretical range of ratings goes from -3 to +3 with -3 as most negative estimation and 3 as most positive estimation. The quantitative


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assessment is based on the results of the online survey. The scale for the quantitative assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected misuse potential regarding the technology is not existent Low – the expected misuse potential regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected misuse potential regarding the technology is average High – the expected misuse potential regarding the technology is high

3.1.7 Current Utilization

This criterion focuses on the current utilization of technology regarding its specific range of application in terms of security issues. For example, there are many international companies developing detection technologies for military use. Regarding the dual use thematic there might be a possible civil use expected in the future. The qualitative assessment based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment based on results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the current utilization of the technology is not existent Low – the current utilization of the technology is existent in a low form Medium – the current utilization of the technology is existent in a medium form High – the current utilization of the technology is existent in a high form

3.2 Economical Dimension The economical dimension considers aspects related to the market and frameworks/market conditions relevant to their development and application of the technologies. On the one hand, it includes general aspects concerning the market like the market potential, the maturity of the technology and potential substitution effects on the technology. On the other hand, this dimension focuses on the development of the technologies including aspects like indirect and direct costs of the development as well as the public and private funding of the technology development. In addition, the demand for qualified and trained people is included in this dimension.

3.2.1 Market Potential

This criterion incorporates any information concerning estimated or collected market data related to the specific technology. Statements on future expectations are especially considered here. Every outlook on the future market potential of this technology is mainly related to the information given concerning the security relevance of the specific technology. If there are statements on future market expectations being consistent with or in contrast to statements on the future technology development given due to the criterion “security relevance”, this is included here. In general, this criterion evaluates if there is a large market for products based on this technology in the future. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The scale for this assessment is numerical. The theoretical range of ratings goes from -3 to +3 with -3 as most negative estimation and 3 as most positive estimation. The quantitative assessment is based on results of the online survey. The scale for the quantitative assessments is the following:


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Zero – the expected market potential regarding the technology is not existent Low – the expected market potential regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected market potential regarding the technology is average High – the expected market potential regarding the technology is high

3.2.2 Time Frame and Maturity

This criterion describes why the technology is judged as an “Emerging Technology”. The current technology maturity is based on the three technology readiness levels ’Low’, ’Medium’ and ’High’ as specified in European Security Research and Innovation Forum (ESRIF, final report, page 19, 2009). Based on this report, further expectations or statements from different sources concerning the future development of this technology are considered here. It evaluates when and how this technology might become relevant for security issues, either in a salutary or detrimental way. Since the focus of the project ETCETERA is the time frame between the years 2020 to 2030 and all nine emerging technologies match the expectations to arise during this period, the value determined here expresses how probable it will arise in this period, based on expert opinions. In general, this criterion evaluates if the technology is expected to be mature for the mass market so that any impact on security issues will become valid. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The scale for this assessment is numerical. The theoretical range of ratings goes from -3 to +6 with -3 as most negative estimation and 6 as most positive estimation. The quantitative assessment is based on results of the online survey. The scale for the quantitative assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected maturity for the mass market regarding the technology is not existent

Low – the expected maturity for the mass market regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected maturity for the mass market regarding the technology is

average High – the expected maturity for the mass market regarding the technology is high

3.2.3 Substitution Effects

This criterion describes the potential substitution of the specific security technology by other similar and essential technologies which might be focused on in the next years. The more similar or essential technologies concerning the same security issues are expected to arise in the next years, the higher the potential substitution of the individual technology is. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – there are no substitution effects influencing the technology Low – there are low substitution effects influencing the technology Medium – there are medium substitution effects influencing the technology High – there are high substitution effects influencing the technology


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3.2.4 Indirect Costs of Development

This criterion focuses on the assessment of indirect cost-specific factors during the development process of the technology and the efforts to develop the specific technology to the point of maturity. It considers aspects like infrastructure investments to convert them into a qualitative scale. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero –no indirect costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

Low –limit indirect costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

Medium –average indirect costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

High –high indirect costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

3.2.5 Direct Costs of Development

This criterion focuses on the assessment of direct cost-specific factors during the development process of the technology and the efforts to develop the specific technology to the point of maturity. It considers aspects like material costs, cost effectiveness, cost reduction to convert them into a qualitative scale. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero –no direct costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

Low –limit direct costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

Medium –average direct costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

High –high direct costs of development are necessary for the realization of the technology

3.2.6 Public Funding of Development

This criterion describes the public funding potential regarding the research and development of the specific technology in terms of e.g. research funding like the 7th framework program for research and technological development. In this context, several projects and technology areas are supported. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:


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Zero – the expected public funding of the development regarding the technology is not existent

Low – the expected public funding of the development regarding the technology is low

Medium – the expected public funding of the development regarding the technology is average

High – the expected public funding of the development regarding the technology is high

3.2.7 Private Funding of Development

This criterion describes the private funding potential regarding the research and development of the specific technology in terms of e.g. companies or organizations. In the case of software defined radios for example, there is a huge private funding development dominated by companies from the United States, followed by the European companies. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected private funding of the development regarding the technology is not existent

Low – the expected private funding of the development regarding the technology is low

Medium – the expected private funding of the development regarding the technology is average

High – the expected private funding of the development regarding the technology is high

3.2.8 Qualified and Trained People

This criterion focuses on the estimation of the amount of required qualified and trained people for the successful development and application of the specific technology. Not only low labour costs could be one of the key factors regarding the successful implementation of a technology, but also the availability of skilled workers has to be ensured. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the amount of required qualified and trained people for the successful development and application of the technology is not existent

Low – the amount of required qualified and trained people for the successful development and application of the technology is low

Medium – the amount of required qualified and trained people for the successful development and application of the technology is average

High – the amount of required qualified and trained people for the successful development and application of the technology is high


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3.3 Societal Dimension The societal dimension considers aspects which are mainly relevant for the development and application concerning ethical criteria and those focusing on the acceptance of innovative technologies. On the ethical side, aspects like privacy issues, the misuse potential of the technologies to cause mental or physical harm and the aspects concerning health issues are mentioned in this dimension. On the acceptance side, the rejection or acceptance of innovative technologies is defined by the value, added by the use of those technologies, especially the perceived ease of use and the perceived usefulness of the technology.

3.3.1 Privacy Issues

This criterion focuses on privacy issues related to this technology, e.g. in case this technology could be used to violate the privacy of persons or to threaten the security of communication processes. Also, aspects related to the private use of the specific technology are considered here, for example the high availability of security technologies due to low production costs could raise privacy issues because of the installation of surveillance systems by private persons to violate the privacy of other persons or this technology could be used to threaten the security of communication processes. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The scale for this assessment is numerical. The theoretical range of the ratings goes from -3 to +3 with -3 as the most negative estimation and 3 as the most positive estimation. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey. The scale for the quantitative assessment is the following:

Zero – the expected provoked privacy issues regarding the use of the technology are not existent

Low – the expected provoked privacy issues regarding the use of the technology are low

Medium – the expected provoked privacy issues regarding the use of the technology are average

High – the expected provoked privacy issues regarding the use of the technology are high

3.3.2 Physical or Mental Harms – Misuse

This criterion focuses on the misuse potential related to the specific technology. It describes whether it can be expected that this technology could pose any health risks for human beings by intentional usage (e.g. laser weapon). In general, this criterion evaluates if it is likely that this technology will be used to provoke any physical or mental harm to humans. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The scale for this assessment is numerical. The theoretical range of the ratings goes from -3 to +3 with -3 as the most negative estimation and 3 as the most positive estimation. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey. The scale for the quantitative assessment is the following:


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Zero – the expected physical or mental harms in the form of misuse of the technology are not existent

Low – the expected physical or mental harms in the form of misuse of the technology are low

Medium – the expected physical or mental harms in the form of misuse of the technology are average

High – the expected physical or mental harms in the form of misuse of the technology are high

3.3.3 Acceptance - Perceived Ease of Use

This criterion considers the expected societal acceptance of the specific security technology regarding its perceived ease of use. This criterion is based on the findings of Davies (1989) in the form of the technology acceptance model. This model suggests that when users are presented with a new technology the perceived ease of use is one of the main factors that influence their decision about how and when they will use a technology on an individual level. This criterion shall evaluate the perceived ease of use on a societal level. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected perceived ease of use regarding the technology is not existent Low – the expected perceived ease of use regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected perceived ease of use regarding the technology is average High – the expected perceived ease of use regarding the technology is high

3.3.4 Acceptance – Perceived Usefulness

This criterion considers the expected societal acceptance of the specific security technology regarding its perceived usefulness. This criterion is based on the findings of Davies (1989) in the form of the technology acceptance model. This model suggests that, when users are presented with a new technology, the perceived usefulness is one of the main factors that influence their decision about how and when they will use a technology on an individual level. This criterion shall evaluate the perceived ease of use on a societal level. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected perceived usefulness regarding the technology is not existent Low – the expected perceived usefulness regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected perceived usefulness regarding the technology is average High – the expected perceived usefulness regarding the technology is high

3.3.5 Aspects Concerning Health Issues

This criterion describes aspects concerning health issues regarding the use of the specific security technology. In fact, risks regarding the use of new technologies are not well known and no particular health issues have been identified so far, but tendencies can be


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thoroughly derived. This criterion considers whether it can be expected that this technology could, maybe in the form of accidents (e.g. laboratory research on a deadly virus, the potential threat of chemical accidents or the general risk of a technology affecting the ecological system) or long-time use, pose a health risk for human beings. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected aspects concerning health issues regarding the use of the technology are not existent

Low – the expected aspects concerning health issues regarding the use of the technology are low

Medium – the expected aspects concerning health issues regarding the use of the technology are average

High – the expected aspects concerning health issues regarding the use of the technology are high

3.4 Ecological Dimension The ecological dimension considers aspects which are related to the environment and mainly relevant for their development and application of the technologies. This dimension is basically becoming increasingly important as people consider the consequences of continually interfering with the ecological balance of nature. Especially aspects regarding the protection of the environment or demanding less pollution are considered here. The focus lies on recycling activities, especially the question of waste disposal, and on the appropriate interaction with critical resources. In particular, the increase or improvement in efficiency is mainly addressed here.

3.4.1 Recycling & Waste Disposal

The criterion recycling and waste disposal focuses on ecological effects and environmental aspects such as the waste disposal and the recycling process regarded over the complete life cycle of the specific technology. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected recycling and waste disposal efforts regarding the technology are not existent

Low – the expected recycling and waste disposal efforts regarding the technology are low

Medium – the expected recycling and waste disposal efforts regarding the technology are average

High – the expected recycling and waste disposal efforts regarding the technology are high


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3.4.2 Resource Efforts and Consumption of Critical Resources

The criterion resource efforts and consumption of critical resources describes the additional effort developers and researchers are faced with during the development of the specific technology as well as the dependencies of critical resources. For example, silicon as one of the most important materials for many types of advanced and consumer-used sensors is not a suitable material for high temperature and harsh environment applications. For these advanced applications, silicon carbide is used. Not only material factors are considered, but also hardware and software components. In general, the aspect of scarcity of resources shall be considered here. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected resource efforts and consumption of critical resources regarding the technology are not existent

Low – the expected resource efforts and consumption of critical resources regarding the technology are low

Medium – the expected resource efforts and consumption of critical resources regarding the technology are average

High – the expected resource efforts and consumption of critical resources regarding the technology are high

3.5 Legal & Political Dimension The legal and political dimension considers aspects which are related to political elements and the regulative surrounding of the technologies, which are mainly relevant for their development and application of the technologies. In particular, aspects like subventions, regulation and standardization for the European market are regarded in this dimension.

3.5.1 Subvention

This criterion focuses on subvention aspects. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected subventions regarding the technology are not existent Low – the expected subventions regarding the technology are low Medium – the expected subventions regarding the technology are average High – the expected subventions regarding the technology are high

3.5.2 Regulation

This criterion describes regulatory aspects. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:


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Zero – the expected regulation regarding the technology is not existent Low – the expected regulation regarding the technology is low Medium – the expected regulation regarding the technology is average High – the expected regulation regarding the technology is high

3.5.3 Standardization for European Market Potential

This criterion focuses on standardization aspects for the European market. The qualitative assessment is based on research studies and scenario workshop results. The quantitative assessment is based on the results of the online survey: The scale for both assessments is the following:

Zero – the expected standardization for the European market regarding the technology is not existent

Low – the expected standardization for the European market regarding the technology is low

Medium – the expected standardization for the European market regarding the technology is average

High – the expected standardization for the European market regarding the technology is high

3.6 Scenario Dimension - Drivers and Barriers The scenario dimension regards the four scenarios (green scenario, pink scenario, orange scenario, yellow scenario) developed within the scenario workshops of Fraunhofer ISI. It contains relevant drivers and barriers respective to the specific emerging technology, which both include market, technological, societal, legal, political and ecological aspects. The drivers and barriers from the workshop were also included in the hereby introduced socio-economic model and interlinked with the scenarios. The exact procedure is described in the following. As a first step, the workshop material is analyzed to identify suitable barriers and drivers. Important aspects in the selection process are the same aggregation level to be comparable or plausible explanations. Especially in the case of indoor navigation and small-scale energy, adjustments had to be made. Here, mainly the results from the first scenario workshop day from work package 5.3 were used. The final list of used barriers and drivers of this model can be found in the following. Also, a short explanation and the influence they have on the six used dimensions (social, technological, economical, ecological, legal and political), which were already introduced in the last work package, are given. For the implementation of the socio-economic model, small adjustments were made here. For each technology, the barriers and drivers are weighted on a predefined scale regarding the influence they have within the dimensions and therefore are a barrier or driver for the specific technology.

-3 High barrier -2 Moderate barrier


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-1 Low barrier 0 No statement can be made 1 Low driver 2 Moderate driver 3 High driver

So, assessments for each technology are made. As an example, an excerpt of the resulting matrix for sensor technology is shown below.

Dimension Social Technological Economical Ecological Legal Political

Multisensing 0 3 2 0 0 0 Public acceptance -2 0 0 0 0 0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Figure 2: Assessment matrix for sensor technology (excerpt) The regarded dimensions are used according to the previous work3. Societal Dimension This perspective considers different societal elements which influence the application, development or usage of the regarded technologies. Trust in institutional arrangements, societal trends and societal changes, healthcare demand, societal tensions, societal need for secure data and communication or a higher security level in general are considered. Also, changes within the value system and the level of training are mentioned.

Technological Dimension This perspective considers different elements which are direct or indirect related to the technology itself like the functions, materials, resources, concepts as well as aspects concerning the application, supporting technologies etc. General aspects with regard to the supply side like better quality, more efficiency, expansion of technology functions, user driven technology development as well as extended potential for applications were addressed. Furthermore, technologies or materials that support the development of the selected emerging technologies are named. In addition, aspects which focus on the demand side and consider especially the end-user perspective are listed and specific aspects to the research and development potential are discussed. Economical Dimension This perspective considers aspects related to the economy, market conditions and competition that could have an influence on the development of the evaluated technology in particular on the application side. The affordability, cost efficiency and the extended utilization of technologies (industry, private persons and administrations) and the understanding and implementation of risk management are named. Standardization as well as different technical approaches and solutions, maintenance, durability and life cycle costs as well as market size are further considered.

3 See ETCETERA Working Document 6.2 “Report on the scenario-based workshop”


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Ecological Dimension This perspective considers aspects which are related to the environment and the ecological balance of nature. Environmental protection, pollution or energy consumption are discussed here.

Legal Dimension These aspects consider legal aspects which could have an influence on the application and development of the technology (aspects regarding the judicial power and the executive). Different legal spheres like individual rights, commercial law, civil law and data protection law were addressed.

Political Dimension This perspective addresses the political elements which are related to the stability of a government, policies of political parties or the nature and ability to influence political decision making in general. Legislation, regulation, standardization and harmonization are also compared. Moreover, the political forces which are related to the stability of a government, policies of political parties or political influences on decision making in general are described. As a next step, the values of the drivers and barriers for each technology are aggregated for each dimension (social, technological, economical ecological legal and political). Sensor Technology Barrier Driver Social -2 0 Technological 0 3 .. ... ...

Figure 3: Summarization of assessed barriers and drivers for each technology (excerpt) Those new values are compared with the four scenarios and their possible influence. Finally, those values are compared with the situation in the scenario if there are any remarkable influences. The four scenarios build own dimensions in the socio-economic model. A short summarization of the scenarios is included in this report. After that, the influence of the scenarios on the dimensional barriers and drivers is described.

3.6.1 The Scenarios and their characteristics for the different dimensions

For the qualitative comparison of the scenarios and the dimensions of the technologies, it is essential to have a clear overview about the intention of the scenarios on the different axis. The six regarded dimensions have varying characteristics within the four scenarios. A quantitative comparison (quantification of the following matrix) is not possible because of the high loss of information and the degree of generalization. In each step of the following influence analysis individual aspects have to be regarded.


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Green scenario path: 2nd Woodstock – a peaceful world with harmony, unison, qualitative progress

The green scenario named “2nd Woodstock – a peaceful world” is characterized by a long-term economic stability and the absence of great power conflicts in the world. The European Union is competitive at the global level and there is a strong industrial capability and knowledge base in the security field in Europe. Europe has a worldwide leading position in science and research in general but also in civil security related technology fields and industries. Global rethinking leads to sustainable and efficient consumption and production behaviour in industry and society. The supply and demand for security technologies and measures is determined by usefulness and is focused on technologies that contribute to the needs of everyday life. Therefore, the R&D activities in science and industry as well as the security products and services are characterized by expressed market needs and user integration at an early stage. Furthermore, a change from the fully secure approach to a risk management approach in industry is observed. At the same time, the people and the society in general show a conscious handling of uncertainty and risk. Therefore, the enhanced resilience of the society is one important distinguished attribute. Traditional and social values still remain important in the European countries. Issues like active aging, life-long education, demographic change and new living models are characteristics of the society.

Orange scenario path: Technology (High tech) rules the world

The orange scenario named “Technology rules the world” is characterized by competing political systems at the global level. The worldwide economy is stable. Europe is competitive and has a worldwide leading position in science and industry. There is a greater demand and competition for essential resources and the balance of military powers shift to various regions that could lead to tensions between regions, states and national identities at the global level. At EU-level, harmonization is far driven as is the enlargement of the European Union and the monetary union. In the European countries, the ‘western’ value system remains important. The overarching European security policy is characterized by human security, but focused on a securitization of life. This focus is likewise pushed forward by the fragmented, yet strong security economy and industry in Europe. This orientation addresses more the technological feasibility as usefulness and societal needs. Because of the strong focus on securitization, civil security technologies are widely used. Furthermore, solutions for current challenges, problems and societal needs are mainly expected in the technology field. The trust in technology solutions and the awareness and acceptance of risk originating from technologies are characteristic for the technology affinity in the society. For the higher security level, citizens even reduce the claims for their rights and public acceptance is given for high security standards. In general, technology is seen as a solution for different kinds of challenges, new technologies are hyped and research activities are not scrutinized.


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Pink scenario path: “Buddenbrooks global” with instability, social gaps and inequalities

The pink scenario, “Buddenbrooks global”, is characterized by an instable economic situation with many crises and competition for resources at the global level. New global players are evolving and asserting the market interests. The political influence of the European Union is decreasing at the global level. Europe is divided into different regions and characterized by different integration levels at the policy side. Furthermore, the eurozone is minimized. The European security policy is strongly focused on national security and the interactions with other policies are limited. Due to the shift to private R&D funding, the research landscape is characterized by market interest like profit, efficiency and turnover. R&D is more related to applied research, and necessary basic research is missing. The European security industry is very strong and produces tailored security solutions for society and industry. But the user-friendliness is rather oriented on market and societal needs than on the best solution. Furthermore, less regulation and harmonization allows industries to develop and proved more innovation inputs. Therefore, technology driven research and development activities are typical. The need for security is enforced by the security industry. The affinity to technological solution in society is reflected in high technology penetration of everyday life. For higher security levels, citizens accept the restriction of their individual rights and freedoms. Due to the further growth of social gaps and strict differentiation between social classes, only certain groups of “rich people” can afford these security technologies and products.

Yellow scenario path: “The broken pitcher” with broken relationships, no harmony, stagnation, retrograde step in social terms

The yellow scenario, “The broken pitcher”, is characterized by an economic and political instability at the global level, and the power of the European Union is reduced. Global powers and balances shift to few regions and conflicts over markets, investment flows and resources already exist. Furthermore, the long-term financial crisis is not overcome. Due to the regionalism and the de-globalization process, benefits of technologies will be realized by only a few leading countries worldwide. The European Union enlargement is stagnating and tendencies to harmonize the legal framework are given up. Due to the return to the interest of nations and regions, the decision making process at the European level came more or less to a standstill. Furthermore, for example, security policy is perceived by the individual states and, therefore, more emphasis is placed on defence than on trust and cooperation. Additionally, it is to observe that lobbies have a strong influence at the policy level. The global economic arrangement is characterized by multinational companies and big players which concentrate on markets with few risks. The security market is dominated by US companies. The technology acceptance is decreasing in general and more effective research is required by the society. The demand for security technologies in society is decreasing due to the awareness of society that not all risks may be covered by security solutions. On the other hand, not all citizens can afford the necessary security measures due to the financial and economic crisis as well as the growing social divide. The further growth of the social gap enforces the strict differentiation between social classes. As a result of these social developments, extreme groups become stronger and are difficult to control.


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3.6.2 Short Description of the emerging security technologies

The emerging security technologies are shortly described to get the needed information for the following assessments and argumentation. Homomorphic Encryption Homomorphic Encryption is a special type of encryption that permits computation on encrypted data. In contrast to other encryption types, there is no necessity to decrypt the encrypted data for the purpose of processing. As a consequence, the confidentiality of the data is ensured anytime. Partially homomorphic encryption schemes and fully homomorphic encryption schemes can be distinguished. Partially homomorphic encryption schemes allow only a few number of operations on the cipher text while fully homomorphic schemes allow arbitrarily complex computation on the cipher text.4 Cognitive Radio A Cognitive Radio is an adaptive radio that can change its transmission parameters, for example transmission power, carrier frequency, bandwidth and modulation scheme, dependent on the current boundary conditions. The crucial parameter is the current usable frequency range. A Cognitive radio should monitor the parts of the electromagnetic spectrum which come into question, detect momentarily available ranges (spectrum holes) and uses the best available free spectrum range (dynamic spectrum access). This means that the electromagnetic spectrum is used more efficiently. Small-scale Energy harvesting Energy harvesting is the process by which energy is derived from external sources, captured and stored. Energy harvesting systems are usually embedded as subsystems producing power without interfering the tasks of the main system. Their energy source is freely available in the environment and passively captured by the energy harvesting system. The energy source can be the temperature gradient, movement, vibrations, radiation or a fuel (e.g. blood sugar, air). There are a number of different technologies in the field of energy harvesting with a high potential and a low development degree to be used in security applications. Indoor Navigation In environments without line-of-sight (LoS) connection to navigation satellites (GNSS), these solutions comprise inertial navigation (INS), odo-/pedometry or different radio-based localization techniques. For the navigation with respect to complex or dynamic 3D surroundings, systems with integrated cameras using “visual navigation“ would be most valuable. This would enable independency from dedicated and expensive radio infrastructures. Smart textiles Smart textiles are fabrics that enable computing, digital components, electronics, energy supply and sensors to be embedded in them. They belong to the development of intelligent clothing. Currently, different approaches are discussed: the functionalisation of cotton using carbon nanotubes for improving its mechanical properties, the development of

4 The short description of the technologies originates from the technology cards, which based on the details desk research and publications analysis as well as from the results of the previous work packages WP 4 and WP 5.1.


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photovoltaic fibres for energy supply or embedding fibre optics into textiles for medical monitoring. Sensor technologies The following sensor technologies were selected as emerging technologies. In the evaluation workshop, it was not suitable to conduct all these technologies. Therefore, overarching aspects for the four sensor technologies were worked out from the participants in the workshop and are illustrated after the short definitions. Explosive traces integrated sensors This technology comes from the integration of different technologies creating a system of systems which can yield a highly efficient system to detect explosive threats. Single technology candidates could be Differential Mobility Analysis, Mass Spectrometry, biodetectors, lab-on-chip, data fusion etc. Today, a few technologies are capable to detect and identify traces of explosive materials. They generally require preparation of a sample and do not cover all possible threats. The proposed technology integrates some of these technologies to boost the detection capability in real time without interaction with the explosive device. Sensors on unconventional flexible substrates The significant efforts dedicated to the development and implementation of electronic components on flexible and stretchable substrates could also give way to new types of sensors with new functionalities. The main focus is on the production of environmental sensors on plastic and flexible foils for wireless applications. Other types of flexible substrates such as paper, thin metal sheets, textiles and biodegradable materials are also conceivable. Typical examples of sensor types are temperature, humidity and gas sensors. CBRN Identification CBRN identification technologies offer solutions to detect and identify chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats as well as the delimitation of high-risk zones. Detection mechanisms are needed at the three stages of a CBRN incident, i.e. before, during and after – monitoring, warning, identifying and consequence assessment are, thus, all core functions of detection. Technologies can either be used by military or civilian personnel. Terahertz Terahertz (THz) wave radiation is defined as the far-infrared (FIR) electromagnetic radiation between 100 GHz and 10 THz (1 THz = 1012 Hz) which is between the microwave and infrared bands. The electromagnetic spectrum of terahertz can be used both to create an image of an object by measuring the intensity of reflected or emitted energy and to gather information on the chemical makeup of an object by measuring the absorption of electromagnetic energy.

3.6.3 Homomorphic Encryption - Drivers and Barriers

For homomorphic encryption, we identified six barriers (Market Demand for Security Technologies, Strategic use of Patents, Legal interception (governmental) forensic, Technology realization, Necessity of harmonized legal framework, Price <-> Security Trade-off) and only one driver (cloud computing) according to the workshop results.


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Market Demand for Security Technologies: This might be a barrier when there is little demand for security technologies from the society and safety in general prevails. Security is only relevant for economic players and in competition. Most relevant in this case is the market demand for security technologies. Normally, this is a small economic barrier because the technology and also its application potential are only useful for a very small group of users. Cloud computing: Cloud computing is the technical frame where homomorphic encryption is implemented in to secure the stored cloud data. The far driven acceptance of Cloud services influences the adoption of homomorphic encryption and, thus, it is mainly a highly relevant technical driver. Strategic use of Patents: The strategic use of patents might lead to a blockade of technical fields because key technologies are protected and not freely accessible for other developments. So, monopoles are formed which eventually results in rising prices and only few providers. Thus, it is an economical barrier for the further technology development. Considering that patents for software and IT are controversially discussed, it is seen as a very low barrier. Legal interception by governmental forensic: The mismatch between privacy technologies and governmental forensic is a moderate barrier for industry at political and legal level. Legal regulations and interventions through governmental actors are conflicting with technical aspects and data security. Technology realization: At the moment, homomorphic encryption is only a theoretical concept and there is no practical implementation. A proof of concept is missing which is a very high barrier from the technological side. Necessity of harmonized legal framework: Different legal frameworks of the several EU member states might be seen as a moderate barrier. The legal framework increases the complexity of a practical implementation due to the national applicable law and individual adaption so that additional agreements are necessary. Therefore, this is a moderate barrier. Price <-> Security Trade-off: There is a trade-off between price and security and the two factors are differently weighted by each individual. The extra costs for the security technology are compared to the added value and enhancement of the security level. Thus, it is a potential barrier, but only to a moderate extent.


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Figure 4: Assessed Drivers and Barriers - Homomorphic Encryyption After the aggregation of the values for drivers and barriers from above, the matrix for homomorphic encryption looks like the following.

Barrier Driver Social 0 0 Technological -3 3 Economical -1 0 Ecological 0 0 Legal -2 0 Political -2 0

Figure 5: Aggregated Values - Homomorphic Encryption No statements on the social dimension were made, so that we have 0 for the barriers as well as the drivers. This also applies for ecology. Technological aspects are seen as a strong driver but also as a strong barrier. For the economical perspective, only a small barrier is seen that results from the three aspects use of patents, dependence on demand for security technologies and the trade between the price and the gained security improvement. Regarding the scenarios, several adjustments are necessary. Primarily, the main aspects are picked and their influence is described in the following. Green Scenario Technology: Cloud computing as a main technical driver and the missing technical realization as a barrier remain in this scenario and there is nothing changed in the assessment. Economy: Within the green scenario, we have increased risk awareness, risk management and a general resilience orientation. So, the market demand for security technologies is lowered and, therefore, the economical barrier increases. Another point is that patents, as a potential strategic barrier, are not granted very often in the green scenario so that their blockading effect is vanishing. Due to the balance of those aspects (strengthening and lowering), the value of -1 (economical barrier) remains. Legal: The harmonized legal framework within the EU is advanced so that this potential legal barrier is lowered within the green scenario. Politics: Due to the resilience orientation and global stability, governmental actors are less interested in forensic intrusions. Thus, this barrier at the political level can be lowered.

Barriers and DriversDimension

Social Techno-logical Economical Ecological Legal Political

Market Demand for Security Technologies 0 0 -1 0 0 0

Cloud Computing 0 3 0 0 0 0

Strategic use of Patents 0 0 -1 0 0 0

Legal interception by governmental forensic 0 0 0 0 -2 -2

Technology realization 0 -3 0 0 0 0

Necessity of harmonized legal framework 0 0 0 0 -2 0

Price <-> Security Trade-off 0 0 -2 0 0 0


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Orange Scenario Technology: The main technological driver for homomorphic encryption, cloud computing, might be supported by the good framework conditions for R&D activities, financing and funding as well as through the trust in technologies. These points legitimize that cloud computing is seen as strong driver within this scenario. Economy: The market demand for security is high and securitization of life is important for the society. Furthermore, the price is less problematic because of the high expectations regarding the security level. Hence, in sum we get a value of -1 for this barrier. Legal: The harmonized legal framework within the EU is advanced so that this potential legal barrier is lowered within the orange scenario. Politics: Governments in this scenario are dealing with competing political systems. Therefore, this barrier at the political level stays moderate. Pink Scenario Technology: We have a high technology penetration of everyday life and a high demand for security technologies in the pink scenario. On the other hand, the implementation of the technology and the innovation success could be hindered through the high orientation on applied research activities and the reduced investments in basic research. Economy: Especially here, enterprises can strengthen their competitiveness by the strategic use of patents. Reasons are the fragmented but strong European market and the focus on applied research by the market interest driven R&D structure. Thus, the high barrier remains unchanged. Legal: The state of harmonization is stable but unchanged so that the value remains unchanged. Politics: In the pink scenario, the political barrier remains very low. Here, we have a few leading countries and the level of harmonization is unchanged over the last years. Yellow Scenario Technology: Technologies are highly scrutinized in this scenario which decreases the technology acceptance; the technological driver cloud computing has to be reduced. Economy: The society in the yellow scenario is characterized by the demand to be secured against every possible threat so that the barrier of the demand for security technologies vanishes. The balance between price and additional value in security might potentially be strengthened because of the long-term financial crisis and the global instability in this scenario. In addition, patents are strategically used by definition. This results in a moderate economical barrier for the implementation of the technology. Legal: A harmonized legal framework within the EU is far from being fulfilled. Hence, the related barrier is even strengthened in this scenario. Politics: Global instability and the stopped harmonization process explain the moderate political barrier in this scenario. Resulting Scenario Matrices The following table summarizes the values for the scenario-matrices. The values differing from the original ones are shown in green.


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Figure 6: Influence of the scenarios – homomorphic encryption

3.6.4 Cognitive Radio - Drivers and Barriers

Described below are the three drivers (More efficient use of frequency spectrum, Need for Resilient Communication in Crisis and Emergencies, Need for secure communication) and one barrier (Lack of Standardization) for cognitive radio. Lack of Standardisation: Missing interfaces and a lack of interoperability of different systems affect the availability and the uptake of cognitive radio-devices/solutions which results in high economic implications. Moreover, the uniformity is important for the user uptake of the technology and a high standardized market would be an advantage. It might also be a small legal barrier to some extent. More efficient use of frequency spectrum: The more efficient use of the frequency spectrum is strongly related to cost efficiency and also to the compliance with local rules. Furthermore, the data transfer rates and the service stability might improve. In general, this is a moderate driver at the technical as well as the economical level. Need for Resilient Communication in Crisis and Emergencies: Cognitive radio could raise the resilience of the society in crisis and emergencies because of the improved communication infrastructure between the first responders and, thus, it is seen as a small societal and moderate economical driver. Need for secure communication: The demand for secure and reliable communication paths in society and economy is a moderate driver.

Figure 7: Assessed Drivers and Barriers - Cognitive radio After the aggregation of the values for drivers and barriers from above, the matrix for Cognitive Radio looks like the following.

ScenarioDimension

Green Orange Pink Yellow

Barrier Driver Barrier Driver Barrier Driver Barrier DriverSocial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Technological -3 3 -3 3 -3 3 -3 2Economical -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0Ecological 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Legal -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0Political -1 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0

Dimension


Lack of Standardisation 0 0 -3 0 -1 0

More efficient use of frequency spectrum 0 2 2 0 0 0

Need for Resilient Communication in crisis and emergencies 1 0 2 0 0 0

Need for secure communication 2 0 2 0 0 0


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Barrier DriverSocial 0 2 Technological 0 2 Economical -3 2 Ecological 0 0 Legal -1 0 Political 0 0

Figure 8: Aggregated Values - cognitive radio On the ecological and political dimension, no aspects were mentioned in the workshop. The social, technical and economical dimensions are seen as a moderate driver, but economical aspects are also seen as a strong barrier. The legal framework might also evolve towards a small barrier for the field of cognitive radio because of missing standards. Technology is seen as a driver in this case. Regarding the scenarios, several adjustments are necessary and are, therefore, explained in the following. Green Scenario Society: The resilient society in this scenario agrees with the value of the social driver. Technology: In the green scenario, efficient and sustainable technology development is very important which positively influences the technical driver. Economy: In the green scenario, the barrier lack of standardization is relatively low and the public funding scheme weakens the barrier even further. The need for resilient communication from end-users in disasters and emergencies is strengthened as a driver because of the resilience orientation. Legal Aspects: Due to legislative coherence in this scenario, primarily as a result from the advanced harmonization, the barrier vanishes. Orange Scenario Society: The need for securitization of life from the society as well as the general technology hype improves the social driver. Technology: The demand for efficiency and sustainability in the orange scenario could support the technological driver. Economy: Standards and interoperability are of a high meaning in this harmonized scenario so that the barrier is lowered. Legal Aspects: As a result of the advanced harmonization, the legal framework is equal in different member states of the EU. Therefore, the standardisation barrier remains very low. Pink Scenario Society: The high need for security and the technology hype justify this driver. Technology: Unsustainable production and consumption are influential for the technology development and the research orientation. Thus, this driver is lowered. Economy: The need for resilient communication from end-users in disasters and emergencies is deactivated in the pink scenario because of the fragmented market, legislation and standards. Therefore, flexible technological solutions are necessary and cognitive radio might become a way to overcome the missing interoperability. Legal Aspects: The fragmental legislation and missing harmonization in the pink scenario could enforce the legal barrier.


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Yellow Scenario Society: The high need for security, on the one hand, and the decreasing technology acceptance, on the other, should be considered regarding this dimension for cognitive radio. Therefore, the value remains. Technology: The technological driver in the yellow scenario is moderate. Economy: Here, the economic framework is weak, but this has no remarkable influence on the barriers and drivers regarded here. However, private funding will increase the problem with the lack of common standards. Legal Aspects: This driver can be invalidated by a fragmental legislation and individual adjustments for each member state. Resulting Scenario Matrices The following table summarizes the values for the scenario-matrices. The values differing from the original ones are shown in green.

Figure 9: Influence of the scenarios – cognitive radio

3.6.5 Small-Scale Energy Harvesting - Drivers and Barriers

For Small-Scale Energy Harvesting, three barriers (Resistance of traditional Energy Producers, Surveillance & Privacy Issues and Waste Disposal) and two drivers (Efficient and lower energy consumption of technology, Improved Functionality and Miniaturizing) are deduced from the workshop results and explained in the following. Resistance of traditional Energy Industry: The willingness of the established energy producers and their industry branch in general is essential for the success of the technology. This is mainly an economical barrier, but to a moderate extent concerning Small-Scale Energy Harvesting. Efficiency and lower Energy Consumption: Increased computing times as well as smaller and more effective energy storage are an economical driver for higher and new application potentials. This also increases the demand so that we have a moderate driver in this case. Improved Functionality and Miniaturizing: There is an increased need for portability, small size and low weight. Here, new applications arise. This is primarily a technical driver and most of these aspects are key elements of the technology. Thus, this is a very strong argument.

Scenario

Dimension


Barrier Driver Barrier Driver Barrier Driver Barrier DriverSocial 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2

Technological 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 2

Economical -1 3 -2 2 -3 2 -3 2

Ecological 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Legal 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0

Political 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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Surveillance & Privacy: General issues concerning privacy and the distrust of the society to be observed when using modern (information) technology are moderate social barriers for the acceptance of the technology. Waste Disposal: There is a certain risk that devices containing small-scale energy devices will not be disposed of in an environmentally acceptable way. This is an ecological barrier, but compared to the other aspects mentioned above, only to a small extent.

Figure 10: Assessed Drivers and Barriers - Small-scale Energy Harvesting After the aggregation of the values for drivers and barriers from above, the matrix for Small-scale Energy Harvesting looks like the following. Dimension Barrier Driver Social -2 0 Technological 0 3 Economical -2 2 Ecological -1 0 Legal 0 0 Political 0 0

Figure 11: Aggregated Values - Small-scale Energy Harvesting This is the only emerging technology where we have an entry for ecology. Within the other technologies, ecology remains unregarded. The social aspects that were mentioned in the workshop lead to a small barrier as well as we have a strong technical driver, resulting from the high value that is associated with the improved functionality and other technical enhancements. For the economical dimension we have a balance between moderate barrier and moderate driver. Regarding the scenarios several adjustments are necessary. Green Scenario Social: Surveillance and privacy issues could strengthen the barrier because of the high risk awareness and the reserved acceptance of security technologies in general. Technological: The sufficient R&D-activities for basic and applied research are good framework conditions for the development of the specialized features portability, small size and reduced weight. Economical: In this scenario we have public funding, so the barrier originating from the established industry and their unwillingness to change to new forms of energy production and particularly small-scale energy harvesting might vanish.

Dimension


Resistance of traditional Energy Industry 0 0 -2 0 0 0

Efficiency and lower Energy Consumption 0 0 2 0 0 0

Improved Functionality and Miniaturizing 0 3 0 0 0 0

Surveillance & Privacy Issues -2 0 0 0 0 0

Waste Disposal 0 0 0 -1 0 0


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The driver concerning efficiency and a reduction of the energy consumption in general is correct in this scenario because of the societal demand for efficient and sustainable security technologies. Ecology: Efficiency and sustainability are very important in the scenario which perfectly matches the characteristics of this technology. Green thinking and unclear waste disposal is bad. Orange Scenario Social: The need for more security and the extremely positive attitude towards technology in society lowers this barrier. Technological: In general, this driver is more supported in scenarios that have sufficient R&D activities at the basic as well as at the applied level and R&D infrastructure as well as R&D funding and financing. The technology hype within the society increases the demand for this specialized technology and new features. Therefore, this driver remains very high. Economy: Here, we have a mixed funding structure that enables an independent technology development so that R&D is less important from the established firms than in, for example, the yellow scenario. The demand for efficiency and sustainability in the orange scenario as well as the generally high demand for security technologies will strengthen the driver. Ecological: Sustainability and efficiency are important aspects within this scenario so that the value remains. Pink Scenario Social: The barrier is lowered because of the need for more security and the extremely positive attitude towards technology in society (technology hype). Technological: The technology hype within the society justifies this value and drives the technology development. Economy: In the case of private funding, the barrier originating from the established industry might increase, also because costs gain a higher importance than sustainability or green technologies. Ecology: Within the pink scenario, costs are more important than efficiency, recycling or sustainability. This has an influence on the ecology in general and, hence, weakens the barrier. Yellow Scenario Social: Within the yellow scenario, the society has a decreasing technology acceptance in general and also scrutinizes technology. However, they would reduce their claim for fundamental rights to gain a higher security level. Thus, the moderate barrier remains. Technological: Private funding and the insufficient R&D framework reduce investments regarding technical details like minimization so that the driver is reduced. Economy: In the case of private funding, the barrier originating from the established industry might increase because the industrial players can act independently. Furthermore, the security market dominated by a few big players enforces this aspect. Hence, smaller and new firms offering this new technology might have difficulties to enter the market. The driver is losing weight because sustainable technologies are less important within this scenario (from the demand as well as the production side). Ecology: The ecological barrier loses weight because we have an inefficient and unsustainable consumption and production behaviour in this scenario. Therefore, this issue is of no importance. Resulting Scenario Matrices The following table summarizes the values for the scenario-matrices. The values differing from the original ones are shown in green.


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Figure 12: Influence of the scenarios – small-scale energy harvesting

3.6.6 Indoor Navigation - Drivers and Barriers

For Indoor Navigation, the workshop outcome had to be sharpened because it was originally at a too global level. Now, we have five barriers (Sensor Integration & Interoperability, Confidential Maps / Changing Indoor, Legal Restrictions, Internet Connection, Privacy Issues) and four drivers (Location based Marketing, Smart Buildings, Resilience and Emergencies, Spread of mobile Devices). Sensor Integration & Interoperability: For the construction of indoor maps, it is essential that there are enough matching sensors within buildings communicating with the mobile device. This is a very high technical barrier because the integration of sensors in the buildings is a mandatory prerequisite for the working of Indoor Navigation to determine the precise location. The sensors have to be implemented in advance. Confidential and changing indoor maps: On the one side, the maps have to be periodically updated and, on the other side, they might be attacked or manipulated. The two aspects mentioned are technical barriers. A continuous update is problematic. Due to the fact that this is only a side condition when the service is already running, this is only a low barrier. Location based marketing: Shops can send personalized marketing to passing customers; thus, it is an economical driver. This point gains relevance if the development of the technology is far driven so that it is only a small driver. Smart Building: Navigation in buildings is a new service with many resulting application. Thus, this is an economical and a technical driver. Specialized location based services arise. The construction of public and non-public maps is possible due to the efficient usage of the sensors integrated in the buildings. This has a huge potential in the commercial and security field so that we have a moderate economic potential with existing but lower technical meaning. Resilience and Emergencies: In case of disaster and emergencies, indoor maps help to evacuate buildings and to send messages concerning escape routes or the nearest emergency exits. This is a small social and a moderate economical driver. Mobile devices: The spread of mobile devices, especially smart phones, and mobile internet in general is a technical driver for the usage of indoor navigation systems. Indoor Navigation is also usable as an app. Therefore, this is a moderate driver for the technology.

ScenarioDimension


Barrier Driver Barrier Driver Barrier Driver Barrier Driver

Social -3 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0

Technological 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 2

Economical -1 2 -2 3 -3 2 -3 1

Ecological -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0

Legal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Political 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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Legal restrictions: Data security regulations might be a legal barrier for the usage of indoor navigation, but to a manageable extent. Internet connection: To connect to an indoor navigation service, a stable internet connection is essential which represents a moderate technical barrier. Privacy Issues: Tracking the movement of people within buildings as well as industry spy (e.g. stealing maps of concurring companies) are important privacy issues with moderate social impact.

Figure 13: Assessed Drivers and Barriers - Indoor Navigation After the aggregation of the values for drivers and barriers from above, the matrix for Indoor Navigation looks like the following. Dimension Barrier Driver Social -2 1 Technological -2 2 Economical 0 2 Ecological 0 0 Legal -1 0 Political 0 0

Figure 14: Aggregated Values - Indoor Navigation For indoor navigation, the results show a small legal barrier because of the regarded data security issues. On the economical dimension, we have a moderate driver, and for the social and technical dimension, drivers and barriers evolved. Regarding the scenarios, several adjustments are necessary. Green Scenario Social: Especially the application potential for resilience and risk management is driven by the society. This is even more important than the reduced technology acceptance. Therefore, the huge application potential for fostering resilience increases this driver.

Dimension

Social Technological Economical Ecological Legal Political/ Policy

Sensor Integration & Interoperability 0 -3 0 0 0 0

Confidential Maps / Changing Indoor 0 -1 0 0 0 0

Location based Marketing 0 0 1 0 0 0

Smart Buildings 0 1 2 0 0 0

Resilience and Emergencies 1 0 2 0 0 0

Mobile Devices 0 2 0 0 0 0

Legal Restrictions 0 0 0 0 -1 0

Internet Connection 0 -2 0 0 0 0

Privacy Issues -2 0 0 0 0 0


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Technological: The resilience orientation fosters especially the updates of the indoor maps to be prepared in the case of disasters and emergencies, but this does not change the value. Economical: Encouraging market conditions and the good business situation explain this value. Legal: Here, data protection and privacy issues are important in the technology development process so that this aspect is strengthened. On the other hand, the advance in harmonization, being far driven in the green scenario, is influential regarding necessary country specific adjustments, and reduces efforts here. Thus, the low value of the legal barrier is kept. Orange Scenario Social: There is a positive attitude towards technology in society which is characterized by a high penetration of everyday life and trust in technology solutions. Technological: Due to the high technology penetration of everyday life, this technological driver could be fostered, also because of the widespread use of mobile devices. Economical: Good market conditions, the business situation and the high market demand for security technologies strengthen this driver. Legal: Due to the balance between data security issues and end-user needs, the value is kept. Pink Scenario Social: There is a positive attitude towards technology in society which is characterized by a high penetration of everyday life and trust in technology solutions. Technological: Due to the high technology penetration of everyday life, this technological driver could be fostered, also because of the likely widespread use of mobile devices. However, the high demand for security measures and trust in technology solutions invalidate this barrier because the people trust in the confidentially of the maps for example. Economical: The barrier of a weak infrastructure is strengthened in this scenario which is specially characterized by a poor economical situation. So, the lack of money reduces this driver. Legal: Due to the acceptance of reduced privacy and the desire to track people, this barrier is invalidated and now only 0. Yellow Scenario Social: The barrier remains because of the high security need on the one hand, and the decreasing technology acceptance on the other hand. Technological: Because of the weak framework and general underinvestment, the sensor will not get integrated in the foreseeable future and also only a few efforts will be put on the updates of maps. Economical: Different legal frameworks and non-harmonization activities require different technological developments and could also be a barrier for the application potential of this technology from the supply side perspective. However, a lack of investment in infrastructures and new technologies, especially first responders, could extremely reduce the demand for secured and improved emergencies and disaster management. Legal: This barrier could be strengthened by framework conditions like fragmented legislation and non-harmonization. Resulting Scenario Matrices The following table summarizes the values for the scenario-matrices. The values differing from the original ones are shown in green.


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Figure 15: Influence of the scenarios – indoor navigation

3.6.7 Smart Textiles - Drivers and Barriers

For Smart Textiles, five drivers (Aging Society, Durability/Lifecycle costs, Fashion orientation/Individualism, new / combination of existing materials, improved functionality) and four barriers (Privacy of Personal Information, Technology Acceptance, Utilization of environmental Energy Sources, Interoperability of Industries) are used. Aging Society: Health and well-being in general are important as a social driver for the further development of textiles and smart materials, especially considering the aging society. From the economic point of view, old people are also wealthy and solvent customers who can afford new and potentially expensive technologies and are willing to pay for their long-term fitness and mobility. So, “active aging” is also a small economic driver, but mainly a social one. Durability/Lifecycle costs: From the demand side, customers expect functional technologies with a high durability and sustainability. These expectations and concerns are important economic drivers for the adoption. Furthermore, the social attitude towards sustainability is influential, but only to a small extent. Fashion Orientation/Individualism: Individual expression through tailored and individualized products gains importance as well as fashion and trendiness. This is a social driver that might gain moderate influence. Privacy of Personal Information: The level of concernedness with privacy and security issues varies. Thereby, the willingness to protect personal data is a social barrier for the adoption of smart materials, also because it is unknown what happens with the data. Technology Acceptance: The new materials used, might arise acceptance problems especially due to nano-materials and the related unknown risks. Health impacts also play a role. Thus, this might evolve to a moderate barrier on the social side. New Materials and Combination of existing Materials: This technology has new application potential. New materials might be used or the existing ones might be combined in a new way. This is a small technical driver for smart textiles. Improved Functionality: Smart Materials offer new functionalities, also because of their conductivity. This is both a technical and an economic driver with moderate influence.

Scenario

Dimension



Social -2 2 -2 1 -2 1 -2 1

Technological -2 2 -2 3 -1 3 -3 2

Economical 0 2 0 3 0 1 0 1

Ecological 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Legal -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0

Political 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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Utilization of environmental Energy Sources: Concepts like energy harvesting might add further potential. The implementation in smart textiles might be a small technical barrier. Interoperability of Industries: In the context of smart materials, the textile industry and the electronic sector have to work together and to agree on common standards, which is very challenging. This might evolve to a lower technical barrier.

Figure 16: Assessed Drivers and Barriers - Smart Textiles After the aggregation of the values for drivers and barriers from above, the matrix for Smart Textiles looks like the following. Dimension Barrier Driver Social -2 2 Technological -1 2 Economical 0 2 Ecological 0 0 Legal 0 0 Political 0 0

Figure 17: Aggregated Values - Smart Textiles In the case of smart textiles, the ecological, legal and political dimensions remained empty. On the social dimension, we have a balance between driver and barrier. For the technology, the barrier is small and the driver moderate. Economical aspects lead to a moderate driver. Regarding the scenarios, several adjustments are necessary. Green Scenario Social: The social driver is enhanced by the active involvement of society in the technology development and innovation process as well as by the high meaning of the social value system. Increased wealth allows individual expression by tailored products and

Dimension


Aging Society 2 0 1 0 0 0

Durability/Lifecycle costs 1 0 2 0 0 0

Fashion Orientation/Individualism 2 0 0 0 0 0

Privacy of Personal Information -1 0 0 0 0 0

Technology Acceptance -2 0 0 0 0 0

New/Combination of existing Materials 0 1 0 0 0 0

Improved Functionality 0 2 2 0 0 0

Utilization of environmental Energy Sources 0 -1 0 0 0 0

Interoperability of Industries 0 -1 0 0 0 0


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a high fashion orientation. The moderate social driver is explained by the aspects described above. However, technologies are scrutinized regarding their usefulness and usability. The society in this scenario is much more critical than in the orange or pink one. Moreover, the protection of personal data is very important. This justifies the already high barrier. Technological: The sufficient framework for R&D activities and economic stability could strengthen this technological driver. In general, the driver improved functionality is more supported in scenarios that have sufficient R&D activities at the basic as well as at the applied level. The usage of new materials, the combination of existing ones for smart textiles and the improved functionality are matching with sustainability and efficiency and, therefore, strengthen the driver. Despite this, the absence of great power conflicts at the global level; the economic prosperity as well as the sustainable production and consumption behaviour can support the collaboration between this industries and weaken this technological barrier. Economical: The driver high durability/lifecycle costs is supported by a society and industry which is characterized by sustainable consumption and production behaviour. The user need for functionality and green thinking mean that products need to be highly functional and sustainable. Due to the high meaning of the social value system, aspects like active aging are important and drive further. Orange Scenario Social: This driver is enhanced by the active involvement of society in the technology development and innovation process as well as by a high meaning of the social value system. Here, we have a relatively high level of technology acceptance within the society and securitization of life is an important aim. Privacy issues are less important, even the claim for fundamental rights is reduced. Technological: The sufficient framework for R&D activities and economic stability could strengthen this technological driver. In general, the driver improved functionality is more supported in scenarios that have sufficient R&D activities at the basic as well as at the applied level and R&D infrastructure as well as R&D funding and financing. Furthermore, the trust in new technologies and the societal technology combined with the improved functionalities can further increase the driver. Economical: The driver high durability/lifecycle costs is supported by a society and industry which is characterized by sustainable consumption and production behaviour. Due to the high meaning of the social value system, aspects like active aging are important and drive further. Pink Scenario Social: Here, we have a relatively high level of technology acceptance within the society which drives new material development. Privacy issues are less important, even the claim of fundamental rights is reduced. Thus, the value stays at a moderate level. Technological: The improved functionality is fostered by the trust in technologies and technology hype where new functionalities are demanded. However, the R&D framework could hinder so that the value remains unchanged. Economical: The driver fashion orientation and individualism is invalidated if the economical arrangement is insufficient in general which is the case here. Therefore, the value is decreased. Yellow Scenario Social: The society scrutinizes technology development regarding its usefulness and usability so that the acceptance for new materials might be low. Privacy issues are less


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important, even the claim of fundamental rights is reduced. Hence, the barrier remains. Technological: The instable political and financial situation reduces R&D investments. The interoperability of industries is difficult because harmonization efforts are stopped and the focus is on national interests. Thus, the technical barrier is strengthened. Economical: The economic driver is fostered by global political imbalance and economic instability. Sustainability is also cared less about. Therefore, the driver is reduced. Resulting Scenario Matrices The following table summarizes the values for the scenario-matrices. The values differing from the original ones are shown in green.

Figure 18: Influence of the scenarios – smart textiles

3.6.8 Sensor Technologies - Drivers and Barriers

For sensor technologies, three barriers (Public acceptance, Size and Cost, Higher Functionality) and two drivers (Multisensing, Stan-off Detection) could be determined here. Multisensing: To merge several sensor technologies into one product is a driver, and new application potentials arise. Furthermore, new business models and opportunities evolve (moderate economic driver) and the general quality of detection is improved (strong technical driver). Public acceptance: This is seen as a moderate social barrier for the adoption of sensor technologies. It is influenced by privacy issues. Security scanners and also privacy prediction are good examples. Stand-off detection: This is seen as a mainly technical driver because it has a huge potential in different existing technologies to improve the detection rates. Moreover, the integration in material characterisation or the survey of large areas is possible. Size and Cost: Both size and cost hinder the usage and, thereby, result in a moderate economical barrier. Still sensor technologies are often very heavy and inflexible even if there are new developments. Higher Functionality: The technical expectations in new functionalities and efficiency are challenging and are, therefore, seen as a technical barrier.

Scenario

Dimension



Social -3 2 -2 3 -2 2 -2 2

Technological 0 3 -1 3 -1 2 -2 2

Economical 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 1

Ecological 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Legal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Political 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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Figure 19: Assessed Drivers and Barriers - Sensor Technology After the aggregation of the values for drivers and barriers from above, the matrix for Sensor Technology looks like the following. Dimension Barrier Driver Social -2 0 Technological -2 3 Economical -2 2 Ecological 0 0 Legal 0 0 Political 0 0

Figure 20: Aggregated Values - Sensor Technology Here, we have no entries on the ecological, legal and political dimensions. Economy is seen as a moderate driver and barrier as well as technology, but here the driver prevails. For the social dimension, we have a moderate barrier resulting from the public acceptance of the technology. Regarding the scenarios, several adjustments are necessary. Green Scenario Social: Technology acceptance depends on the user-orientation, and privacy is important. Thus, the value remains. Technological: The scenario is characterized by satisfying framework conditions for R&D activities. Stable financing and funding could further support the technological development. The expectations concerning the functionalities are not as high in this scenario because technology acceptance differs and we have a focus on user friendliness here. Economical: There is a stable economic situation and risk awareness in this scenario and also expensive technologies are affordable. Sustainability is more important than cost aspects. Thus, the values remain unchanged. Orange Scenario Social: Privacy issues are less important, even the claim of fundamental rights is reduced, and securitization of life is the main objective so that this barrier can be reduced. Technological: The scenario is characterized by satisfying framework conditions for R&D activities: Stable financing and funding could further support the technological development. The technical barrier is related to the expectations regarding the range of functions. Due to the technology hype, this barrier is decreased. Economical: In the orange scenario, we have a high market demand for security technologies as well as good

Dimension


Multisensing 0 3 2 0 0 0

Public acceptance -2 0 0 0 0 0

Stand-off Detection 0 2 0 0 0 0

Size and Cost 0 0 -2 0 0 0

Higher Functionality 0 -2 0 0 0 0


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R&D framework conditions. This drives new technical developments like multisensing or stand-off detection so that the economic driver is increased. Pink Scenario Social: Technology acceptance is high and privacy is less important than security. Therefore, this barrier can be reduced. Technological: The technical barrier is related to the expectations regarding the range of functions. Due to the technology hype, this barrier is correct. Economical: Technical developments like multisensing or stand-off detection are likely developed by the strong security industry to fulfil the demand of the society. However, the framework in this scenario is weaker and economic aspects are very important. Yellow Scenario Social: Privacy concerns and technology acceptance in public are seen as societal barriers for the adoption of sensor technologies. There are aspects like the decreasing technology acceptance and scrutinizing in general as well as the less friction in decision making process due to the limitation of interacting parties which could influence the lower level of acceptance. Technological: The expectations concerning the functionalities are not as high in this scenario because technology acceptance is decreasing anyway. Economical: Global instability leads to reduced R&D funding which hinders further technical developments, also in the field of sensor technologies. Hence, the barrier is now higher. Resulting Scenario Matrices The following table summarizes the values for the scenario-matrices. The values differing from the original ones are shown in green.

Figure 21: Influence of the scenarios – sensor technology

4 Results and Conclusions

The assessment of the emerging security technologies is conducted both in a quantitative and a qualitative way, so that the socio-economic model was passed through twice. The qualitative evaluation refers to previous results from work package 5 and 4 and is based on a comprehensive analysis of market studies and scientific publications. Desk research has supplemented this analysis. In addition, a quantitative evaluation that will resort to the results of an online survey was executed by Fraunhofer ISI. This approach allowed the support of the earlier qualitative assessments by broad expert estimations. The number of over 30 responses was, regarding the short time period, gratifying. Therefore it is possible to present first insights

Scenario

Dimension



Social -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0

Technological -2 3 -1 3 -2 3 -2 2

Economical -2 2 -2 3 -2 2 -3 2

Ecological 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Legal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Political 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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and results regarding the evaluation based on the survey data. The online survey can be found in the Appendix. In the end both assessment approaches will be compared to identify critical dimensions and criteria depending on the respective perspective.

4.1 Results of the qualitative assessment In the following, the results of the qualitative assessment from the socio-economic model are presented. First, the ranking for the six selected technologies is described. The detailed values for each dimension, summed up in the ranking can also been seen. A further illustration as a spider graph is added. Next, the global visual analysis of the security technologies is described, and a sensitivity analysis is finally conducted.

4.1.1 Ranking of the emerging security technologies

At the beginning, the overall rankings of the six examined emerging security technologies are displayed, which can be seen in the following figure.

Figure 22: Scores for the Technologies – Ranking of qualitative assessment The scores of all six selected technologies are in the interval from 41,93% to 55,33%. Smart materials have the lowest score with 41,93% of the optimal ranking followed by Indoor Navigation (48,29) and terahertz sensors (49,34). Cognitive radio received a score of 51,56%, homomorphic encryption scored 53,55%. The highest score was achieved by small-scale energy harvesting with 55,33%. The ranking is as follows:


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1. Small-scale energy harvesting 2. Homomorphic Encryption 3. Cognitive Radio 4. Terahertz Sensors 5. Indoor Navigation 6. Smart Materials This means, that on the basis of the research studies, the scenario workshop plus the assessment of the consortium members in the form of the comparative analysis, the socio-economic model constitutes the innovation potential of the selected emerging technologies in the figured ranking with small-scale energy harvesting and homomorphic encryption. Nevertheless the ranking is relatively close, which can be seen in the interval from 41,93% to 55,33%. Hence, a sensitivity analysis regarding the individual dimensions and criteria seems reasonable. As a first step, the subdivision of the scores for the different alternatives regarding the dimensions (technical, economical, societal, ecological, legal & political, drivers/barriers) shall be highlighted, as shown in the next figure.

Figure 23: Dimensional scores for the selected technologies regarding the qualitative assessment

On the technical dimension, homomorphic encryption, cognitive radio, small-scale energy harvesting as well as indoor navigation received a share of around 8% each. Smart materials and terahertz sensors achieved higher scores (12,5% and 16%).


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For the economical dimension, homomorphic encryption and small-scale energy harvesting received higher scores (around 15%) than the other four technologies.

Homomorphic encryption, cognitive radio and small-scale energy harvesting have more than 10% on the societal scale, followed by indoor navigation with around 7,5% and smart materials and terahertz sensors which only got less than 5%.

For the ecological dimension, homomorphic encryption has a score of over 5%, followed by cognitive radio, small-scale energy harvesting and indoor navigation. The other two technologies received very small scores.

On the legal & political dimension, all technologies have a score between 3% and 5%, and for drivers and barriers around 5%.

Regarding the drivers and barriers identified within the scenario workshop, the homomorphic encryption received the worst rating due to several identified barriers and only a few drivers whereas smart materials are placed on top of the driver/barrier rating.

In the following figure, the technology profiles are drawn in a spider web, being a different representation of the figure above. Each technology has a net and the different dimensions are drawn on the seven axes. The wider the net, the better is the score of the specific security technology. The high value of homomorphic encryption on the ecological dimension is remarkable, whereas the terahertz technology is rated badly because of high recycling efforts and consumption of critical resources. Looking at the technical dimension the figure shows a different picture. Here, the high score goes to the terahertz sensors due to a high current utilization and a high research & development activity. Again, this figure describes the huge barriers as well as a few drivers, by which the homomorphic encryption is confronted, in a very visual way.


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Figure 24: Spider web depending on the dimensions regarding the qualitative assessment An additional possibility to analyze the results of the qualitative socio-economic model is the visual analysis as part of the PROMETHEE method which is a descriptive method to show the different interactions of dimensions, criteria and technologies. The results can be seen in the following figure.


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Figure 25: Visual analysis of the security technologies regarding the qualitative assessment The red line represents the decision axis and, hence the preference of the decision maker. The blue dots represent the emerging technologies, which can be reflected orthogonally to the decision axis by which the ranking of the technologies can be seen. Following the way of the decision axis points, the first dot to come is the highest ranked small-scale energy harvesting. Furthermore, this procedure offers the option to identify conflicting dimensions pointing in the opposite direction. As can be seen here, the technical dimension and the ecological dimension conflict with each other within the assessment of the technologies. The same can be observed regarding the drivers and barriers. They conflict with the economical and the societal dimension, meaning that technologies which are fairly well rated on one dimension are poorly rated on the conflicting dimension. This can also been seen for homomorphic encryption, as the figure shows a high rating on the economical dimension and a bad rating concerning the drivers and barriers. An axis pointing in the way of an alternative is visualizing a good rating on the respective dimension, for instance small-scale energy harvesting in case of the economical dimension.

4.1.2 Sensitivity Analysis

The relative importance of a dimension or criteria is figured by the weighting of the respective dimension and criteria. After analyzing the results of the qualitative socio-economic model as a next step, the sensibility of the system and the ranking shall be analyzed. The more sensitive a dimension is, the more fragile it is for a change of the alternatives ranking. For example dimensions with small intervals have more influence on the ranking of the emerging technologies. A change of the weighting within the given


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interval has no influence on the ranking figured above. For each dimension, stability intervals are calculated. In the following table, the stability intervals are listed. Criteria Min Weight Value Max Weight Technical Dimension 0% 21,6% 35,4% Economical Dimension 11,4% 21,6% 100% Societal Dimension 1,9% 15,5% 87,5% Ecological Dimension 0% 6,4% 9,7% Legal & Political Dimension 0% 10,7% 30,5% Drivers 0% 12,1% 58,8% Barriers 0% 12,1% 43,9%

Figure 26: Stability Intervals of the different dimensions regarding the qualitative assessment The value shown in the table above illustrates the current weighting of the dimensions. The higher the percentage is, the more the dimension influences the final ranking of the alternatives. The stability interval is defined by the minimum and maximum frontier shown in the table, and the more sensitive the dimension is, the more fragile it is for a change of the alternative ranking. What we can reason here is as follows:

The most sensitive dimension is the ecological dimension [0% – 9,7%]. Medium sensitive are the legal & political dimension [0% – 30,5%], the technical

dimension [0% – 35,4%] and the barriers [0% - 43,9%]. Robust dimensions are drivers and the societal dimension [1,9% - 87,5%]. The most robust dimension is the economical dimension because of its range from

11,4% up to 100%.

4.2 Results of the quantitative assessment In the following, the results of the quantitative assessment from the socio-economic model are presented, only regarding the results of the online survey, executed among selected experts out of the security field. First, again the ranking for the six emerging technologies is described, and the detailed values for each dimension are summed up in the ranking. As a further illustration a spider graph is added. Next, the visual analysis of the security technologies is described, and a sensitivity analysis is finally conducted.

4.2.1 Ranking of the emerging technologies

At first, the overall ranking of the six examined emerging security technologies is displayed which can be seen in the following figure.


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Figure 27: Scores for the Technologies – Ranking of quantitative assessment The scores of all six selected technologies are in the interval from 32,45% to 60,81%. The terahertz technology has the worst (/lowest) score with 32,45% of the optimal ranking followed by cognitive radio (42,01%). Smart materials received a score of 51,76%, followed by small-scale energy harvesting on a nearly similar level and a scoring of 53,27%. Homomorphic encryption is placed second, with a sore of 59,70%. The highest score was achieved by indoor navigation with 60,81%. The ranking is as follows: 1. Indoor Navigation 2. Homomorphic Encryption 3. Small-scale energy harvesting 4. Smart Materials 5. Cognitive Radio 6. Terahertz Sensors This means that, on the basis of the survey executed among selected specialists of the security field, the socio-economic model constitutes the innovation potential of the selected emerging technologies in the figured ranking with indoor navigation and homomorphic encryption on top. Nevertheless, these two technologies are placed in a quite similar rating area. The complete ranking is relatively wide, which can be seen in the interval from 32,45% to 60,81%. Hence, a sensitivity analysis regarding the individual dimensions and criteria seems reasonable. As a first step, the subdivision of the scores for the different


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alternatives regarding the dimensions (technical, economical, societal, ecological, legal & political, drivers/barriers) shall be highlighted, which can be seen in the next figure.

Figure 28: Dimensional scores for the selected technologies regarding the quantitative assessment

On the technical dimension, indoor navigation and cognitive radio received a share of over 16% each, followed by small-scale energy harvesting, cognitive radio and indoor navigation, which achieved higher scores (12% and 14%).

For the economical dimension, indoor navigation (around 17%) and cognitive radio (around 15%) received higher scores than the other four technologies.

Small-scale energy harvesting received more than 15% on the societal scale, followed by homomorphic encryption and smart materials with around 12%. Indoor navigation is next with about 7% and terahertz sensors as well as cognitive radio only got less than 4%.

For the ecological dimension, homomorphic encryption has a comparatively huge score of over 13%, followed by indoor navigation and cognitive radio. Terahertz sensors, smart materials and small-scale energy harvesting received very small scores.

On the legal & political dimension, again the homomorphic encryption received the highest score with over 10%, closely followed by three technologies (small-scale energy harvesting, smart materials, indoor navigation) on a nearly similar level.


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Terahertz sensors and especially cognitive radio were poorly rated on this dimension.

The dimensions contribution, in form of a spider web, regarding the quantitative assessment can be seen on the next picture.

Figure 29: Spider web depending on the dimensions regarding the quantitative assessment The spider web visualization can be seen as a different representation of the figure above, representing the dimensions scores regarding the overall ranking. One advantage of this type of visualization is the clarity, especially when it comes to aspects like alternative profiles or assessment ranges. As we can see here, the wider away the points on a regarded axis are placed from each other, the higher is the spread of assessment on that axis. So the dimensions playing a major part in the assessment can be easily identified through the assistance of this visualization method. The most determining dimensions for the overall assessment, with the highest spreads are the ecological and societal dimension. Hence, the alternatives were rated most differently. The dimensions with medium spreads


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are the legal & political and the economical dimensions. The technical dimension is representing the smallest spread. It is showing the smallest impact concerning the ranking of the different alternatives. So we have identified the crucial dimensions in form of ecological and social aspects here. Furthermore the results of the quantitative socio-economic model shall be analyzed in form of the visual analysis as part of the PROMETHEE method, to show the different interactions of dimensions, criteria and technologies. The results can be seen in the following figure.

Figure 30: Visual analysis of the security technologies regarding the quantitative assessment The red line represents the decision axis and therefore the preference of the decision maker. The blue dots represent the emerging technologies, which can be reflected orthogonally to the decision axis or the axis of the different dimensions, by which the ranking of the technologies can be seen. The closest technology to the red dot is the technology ranked first on the overall rating, the indoor navigation. Furthermore, this procedure offers the option to identify conflicting dimensions pointing in the opposite direction. As can be seen here, the technical dimension and the societal dimension conflict with each other within the assessment of the technologies, which means that alternatives ranked good on one dimension are ranked badly on the conflicting dimension. The same can be observed regarding the economical dimension, even though in a weakened form. It conflicts with the societal and the legal & political dimension. An axis pointing in the way of an alternative visualizes a good rating on the respective dimension, for instance homomorphic encryption in the case of the ecological dimension.


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In addition, the visual analysis is an appropriate method to identify the dimensions which are mostly influencing the ranking of the different alternatives. The longer an axis, the more relevance it has regarding the ranking. In principal, the statement is the same regarding the spread of the assessment concerning the different dimensions. As we can see on the figure above, the ecological and the societal dimensions, as well as the legal & political dimension, heavily influence the ranking. Whereas, the economical and technical dimensions have little influence on the ranking, as different alternatives are rated pretty similar on these dimensions.


As a next step, the sensibility of the system and the ranking shall be analyzed. The more sensitive a dimension is, the more fragile it is for a change of the alternative ranking, i.e. a dimension with small intervals has more influence on the ranking of the emerging technologies. A change of the weighting within the given interval has no influence on the ranking figured above. For each dimension, stability intervals are calculated. In the following table, the stability intervals are listed. Criteria Min Weight Value Max WeightTechnical Dimension 23,1% 28,2% 100% Economical Dimension 21,9% 24,6% 100% Societal Dimension 0% 17,6% 20,7% Ecological Dimension 1,2% 13,6% 16,7% Legal & Political Dimension 0% 16,0% 22,0%

Figure 31: Stability Intervals of the different dimensions regarding the quantitative assessment The value shown in the table above illustrates the current weighting of the dimensions. The higher the percentage is, the more this dimension influences the final ranking of the alternatives. The stability interval is defined about the minimum and maximum frontier shown in the table, and the more sensitive the dimension is, the smaller is the range within it may be changed and the more fragile it is for a change of the alternative ranking. What we can reason here is as follows:

The most sensitive dimension is the ecological dimension [1,2% – 16,7%]. Medium sensitive are the legal & political dimension [0% – 22,0%] and the societal

dimension [0% - 20,7%]. The most robust criteria are the economical dimension [21,9% – 100%] and the

technical dimension [23,1% – 100%].

4.3 Results of the quantitative assessment under the additional consideration of general drivers and barriers

In the following chapter, the results of the quantitative assessment from the socio-economic model are presented, including the results of the online survey and general drivers and barriers of the technologies identified within the scenario workshop of


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Fraunhofer ISI.5 These elaborated drivers and barriers for the development and application of the selected technologies in general are independent from the different scenarios which were evolved and deduced out of these drivers and barriers. On the one hand, drivers are aspects which support/promote/encourage the development and application potential in the future. On the other hand, barriers are aspects which hinder/restrain/block the future development and application of these technologies. In general, the named aspects can be assigned to the following categories: socio-cultural, technological, economical, ecological, legal and political. These aspects are driving forces in the external environment as well as in the internal technological field that might impact the technological development and application potential. For example, the societal perspective considers different societal elements, like trust in institutional arrangements, societal trends and changes, increasing healthcare demand, societal need for secure data and communication. However, the technological perspective considers different elements which are directly or indirectly related to the technology themselves like the functions, materials, resources, concepts as well as the aspects concerning the application, supporting technologies etc.. General aspects with regard to the supply side like better quality, more efficiency, expansion of technology functions, user driven technology development as well as an extended potential for applications were addressed. Finally, these aspects are driving forces in the external environment as well as in the internal technological field that might impact the technological development and application potential. First, again the ranking for the six selected technologies is described, also the detailed values for each dimension are shown, which were summed up in the ranking. As a further illustration a spider graph is added. Next, the visual analysis of the security technologies is described, and a sensitivity analysis is finally conducted.

4.3.1 Ranking of the emerging security technologies

At first, the overall ranking of the six examined emerging security technologies is displayed which can be seen in the following figure.

5 See for further information Working Document 6.2 “Report on the scenario-based workshop – Scenario methodology, results, conclusion and recommendations”.


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Figure 32: Scores for the Technologies – Ranking of quantitative assessment under the additional consideration of general drivers and barriers The scores of all six selected technologies are in the interval from 35,37% to 59,01%. The terahertz technology has the worst (/lowest) score with 35,37% of the optimal ranking followed by cognitive radio (44,18%). Smart materials received a score of 52,58%, followed by small-scale energy harvesting on a nearly similar level and a scoring of 52,72%. Homomorphic encryption is placed second, with a sore of 56,14%. The highest score was achieved by indoor navigation with 59,01%. The ranking is as follows: 1. Indoor Navigation 2. Homomorphic Encryption 3. Small-scale energy harvesting 4. Smart Materials 5. Cognitive Radio 6. Terahertz Sensors This means, that on the basis of the survey executed among selected specialists of the security field and the integration of additional general drivers and barriers, the socio-economic model constitutes the innovation potential of the selected emerging technologies in the figured ranking with indoor navigation and homomorphic encryption on top. Nevertheless, these two technologies are placed in a quite similar rating area. The complete ranking is relatively wide, which can be seen in the interval from 35,37% to 59,01%. Hence, a sensitivity analysis regarding the individual dimensions and criteria


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seems reasonable. As a first step, the subdivision of the scores for the different alternatives regarding the dimensions (technical, economical, societal, ecological, legal & political, drivers/barriers) shall be highlighted, which can be seen in the next figure.

Figure 33: Dimensional scores for the selected technologies regarding the quantitative assessment under the additional consideration of general drivers and barriers

On the technical dimension, homomorphic encryption, smart materials and terahertz received a share of around 10% each. Small-scale energy harvesting, cognitive radio and indoor navigation achieved higher scores (12% and 14%).

For the economical dimension, cognitive radio and indoor navigation received higher scores (around 14%) than the other four technologies.

Homomorphic encryption and small-scale energy harvesting received more than 10% on the societal scale, followed by smart materials with around 9% and terahertz sensors as well as cognitive radio which only got less than 5%.

For the ecological dimension, homomorphic encryption has a comparatively large score of over 10%, followed by indoor navigation and cognitive radio. Terahertz sensors, smart materials and small-scale energy harvesting received rather low scores.

Again, on the legal & political dimension, homomorphic encryption received the highest score with nearly 10%, closely followed by three technologies (small-scale


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energy harvesting, smart materials, indoor navigation) on a similar level. Terahertz sensors and especially cognitive radio were rated bad on this dimension.

Regarding the drivers and barriers identified within the workshop, the homomorphic encryption received the worst rating due to several identified barriers and only a few drivers whereas smart materials are placed on top of the driver/barrier rating. Hence, the spread between the different alternatives is very small.

The dimensions contribution, in form of a spider web, regarding the quantitative assessment can be seen on the next picture.

Figure 34: Spider web depending on the dimensions regarding the quantitative assessment under the additional consideration of general drivers and barriers The spider web visualization can be seen as a different representation of the figure above, representing the dimensions scores regarding the overall ranking. One advantage of this visualization type is the clarity, especially when it comes to aspects like alternative profiles or assessment ranges. As we can see here, the wider away the points on a regarded axis are placed from each other, the higher is the spread of assessment on that axis. So the dimensions playing a major part in the assessment can be easily identified with assistance


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of this visualization method. The most determining dimensions for the overall assessment, with the highest spreads are the ecological and societal dimension. Hence, the alternatives were rated most differently. The dimensions with medium spreads are the legal & political and the economical dimensions. The technical dimension as well as the drivers and barriers are representing the smallest spread. They are showing the smallest impact concerning the ranking of the different alternatives. So we have identified the crucial dimensions in form of ecological and social aspects here. Furthermore the results of the quantitative socio-economic model shall be analyzed in form of the visual analysis as part of the PROMETHEE method to show the different interactions of dimensions, criteria and technologies. The results can be seen in the following figure.

Figure 35: Visual analysis of the security technologies regarding the quantitative assessment under the additional consideration of general drivers and barriers The red line represents the decision axis and, hence the preference of the decision maker. The blue dots represent the emerging technologies which can be reflected orthogonally to the decision axis by which the ranking of the technologies can be seen. The closest technology to the red dot is the technology ranked first on the overall rating, the indoor navigation. Furthermore, this procedure offers the option to identify conflicting dimensions pointing in the opposite direction. As can be seen here, the technical dimension and the societal dimension conflict with each other within the assessment of the technologies, which means that alternatives ranked good on one dimension, are ranked badly on the conflicting dimension. The same can be observed regarding the drivers and barriers. They


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conflict with the ecological and the legal & political dimension. An axis pointing in the way of an alternative is visualizing a good rating on the respective dimension, for instance homomorphic encryption in case of the ecological dimension. In addition, the visual analysis is an appropriate method to identify the dimensions which are mostly influencing the ranking of the different alternatives. The longer an axis is, the more relevance it has regarding the ranking. In principal, the statement is the same regarding the spread of the assessment concerning the different dimensions. As we can see on the figure above, the ecological and the societal dimensions are mainly influencing the ranking, whereas the economical and technical dimensions, as well as the drivers and barriers are having little influence on the ranking, because the different alternatives are rated pretty similar on these dimensions.


The relative importance of a dimension or criteria is figured by the weighting of the respective dimension and criteria. After analyzing the results of the quantitative socio-economic model under consideration of additional general drivers and barriers, the sensibility of the system and the ranking shall be analyzed as a next step. The more sensitive a dimension is, the more fragile it is for a change of the alternative ranking, i.e. a dimension with small intervals has more influence on the ranking of the emerging technologies. A change of the weighting within the given interval has no influence on the ranking figured above. For each dimension, stability intervals are calculated. In the following table, the stability intervals are listed. Criteria Min Weight Value Max WeightTechnical Dimension 7,8% 23,5% 100% Economical Dimension 12,5% 20,5% 100% Societal Dimension 0% 14,7% 22,6% Ecological Dimension 1,0% 11,4% 19,1% Legal & Political Dimension 0% 13,3% 27,8% Drivers 0% 8,3% 76,9% Barriers 0% 8,3% 38,1%

Figure 36: Stability Intervals of the different dimensions regarding the quantitative assessment under the additional consideration of general drivers and barriers The value shown in the table above illustrates the current weighting of the dimensions. The higher the percentage is, the more the dimension influences the final ranking of the alternatives. The stability interval is defined about the minimum and maximum frontier shown in the table, and the more sensitive the dimension is, the more fragile it is for a change of the alternative ranking. What we can reason here is the following:

The most sensitive dimensions are the ecological dimension [1,0% – 19,1%] and the societal dimension [0% – 22,6%].

Medium sensitive are the legal & political dimension [0% – 27,8%] and the barriers [0% – 38,1%].


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The most robust criteria are the drivers [0% – 76,9%], economical dimension [12,5% – 100%] and the technical dimension [7,8% – 100%].

4.4 Comparison of the qualitative and quantitative results

4.4.1 Global results of the socio-economic model combining the qualitative and quantitative assessment

The global scores of all six selected technologies are in the interval from 42,36% to 54,85%. The terahertz sensor technology has the lowest score with 42,36% of the optimal ranking followed by smart materials (47,25%) and cognitive radio (47,87%). The three top-rated technologies are rated on a nearly similar level, with indoor navigation (53,65%) on third and small-scale energy harvesting (54,03%) on second place. The highest score was achieved by homomorphic encryption with 54,85%. The ranking is as follows: 1. Homomorphic Encryption (54,85%) 2. Small-scale Energy Harvesting (54,03%) 3. Indoor Navigation (53,65%) 4. Cognitive Radio (47,87%) 5. Smart Materials (47,25%) 6. Terahertz Sensors (42,36%)

Figure 37: Scores for the Technologies – Ranking of global assessment


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The visual analysis concerning the global assessment is a little different from the previous analysis concerning the specific models. In this case, the blue dots are representing the different alternatives. The green axis (1) is representing the qualitative socio-economic model, and the yellow axis (2) is representing the quantitative socio-economic model, whereas the red decision axis expresses the global ranking, considering both, the qualitative and quantitative assessment. The ranking of the different alternatives can be seen by the orthogonal reflection of the blue dots on the specific assessment axis. As can be seen here, the top three technologies (homomorphic encryption, small-scale energy harvesting, indoor navigation) are pretty close together, reflected on the global decision axis, whereas the other three technologies (cognitive radio, smart materials, terahertz sensors) are placed below the three top technologies.

Figure 38: Visual analysis of the security technologies regarding the global assessment


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4.4.2 Scenario Influence Analysis concerning the emerging security technologies

In the following section the influence of the four generated scenarios on the emerging technologies shall be determined. To call the sense of the different scenarios in memory, they are summarized in the following picture.6

Figure 39: Characterizing the elaborated scenarios The development of the emerging security technologies within the different scenarios depends on the number and the characteristics of drivers and barriers concerning the specific technology. But there are general assumptions that can be made regarding the potential technology development and application potential within these scenarios. In general, the pink scenario has mostly positive influence on all the technologies, except the homomorphic encryption, which is negatively affected by all four scenarios. The scenario with the most negative influence on the emerging technologies is the green scenario, which only affects cognitive radio and smart materials in a positive way. These two technologies are positively affected in all scenarios. The orange and the yellow scenario are mostly neutral scenarios, affecting one half of the examined technologies in a positive and the other half in a negative way. The scenario-based development of the emerging security technologies is visualized in the following table. Positive influence Negative influence Green Scenario Cognitive Radio

Smart Materials Homomorphic Encryption Small-scale Energy Harvesting Indoor Navigation Terahertz Sensors

Pink Scenario Cognitive Radio Small-scale Energy Harvesting Smart Materials Indoor Navigation Terahertz Sensors

Homomorphic Encryption

6 See for further information regarding the elaborated scenarios Working Document 6.2 “Report on the scenario-based workshop – Scenario methodology, results, conclusion and recommendations”.


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Orange Scenario Cognitive Radio Smart Materials Terahertz Sensors

Homomorphic Encryption Small-scale Energy Harvesting Indoor Navigation

Yellow Scenario Cognitive Radio Small-scale Energy Harvesting Smart Materials

Homomorphic Encryption Indoor Navigation Terahertz Sensors

Figure 40: Scenario-based development of the emerging security technologies For the demonstration of the results, once again the visual analysis shall be considered (see fig. 41). The red line represents the decision axis and, hence, the preference of the decision maker. In this case it rates the security technologies regarding their development in all four scenarios. The blue dots represent the emerging technologies which can be reflected orthogonally to the decision axis by which the ranking of the technologies can be seen. The two technologies rated best are the technologies mentioned above, with a positive development in all four scenarios. These technologies are the cognitive radio and the smart materials. Followed by three technologies on a lower level, these are the indoor navigation, small-scale energy harvesting and terahertz sensors. Homomorphic encryption, which is influenced negatively by all four scenarios, is ranked lowest, due to huge technical, legal and political barriers which are able to hinder the development and application potential of this technology. The most excellent scenario framework for this technology is an environment which is characterized by a R&D promoting environment. Especially the orange scenario is characterized by such an enabling environment through the influence factors “the European Union R&D Infrastructure” and the “capabilities & capacities in R&D”. Therefore, the technological potential and feasibility is exhausted in particular in the orange scenario because of the following characteristics:

good R&D infrastructure sufficient qualified and trained people high demand for security solutions in society and industry technology-hype attitude towards technologies and society long-term stability as a global economical arrangement

Otherwise, the development and application potential of technologies like “cognitive radio”, “smart textiles” and “indoor navigation” being characterized by societal aspects (e.g. privacy concerns, aging society) could be supported by a strong orientation to user needs in the technology development process like in the green scenario. Therefore, the future potential of these technologies is supported by such an environment focused more on a market pull perspective. Summarizing, the identified technological and non-technological drivers and barriers of the selected technologies could be reinforced or exhausted by the different key elements in the four elaborated scenarios. The visualization of the results can be seen in the next figure.


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Figure 41: Visual analysis of the scenario-based assessment of the emerging security technologies

4.5 Conclusion Although the socio-economic model developed by Fraunhofer ISI is some kind of prototype executed in a limited time period and in form of a first trial, there are several conclusions that can be drawn:

Regarding the ranking of both assessment types there are two technologies that are have constantly good ranking. These technologies are the homomorphic encryption and small-scale energy harvesting. The technology ranked lowest is the terahertz sensor technology, due to low ratings on the economical and societal dimensions.

Considering all six alternatives, the interval of the results is wider in the quantitative assessment and tighter in the qualitative assessment, which means that the evaluations are more apart from another.

The weighting of ecological and legal & political dimensions by the experts were remarkable high and wasn’t expected in that way.


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Contemplating the dimensions to identify which of them are crucial or not for the assessment, it can be observed that the ecological and societal dimensions are showing the biggest spread in both, the qualitative and quantitative assessment.

Furthermore, there are big spreads within the legal & political dimension concerning the quantitative assessment and big spreads within the economical dimension concerning the qualitative assessment.

The sensitivity analysis has shown two dimensions, which are pretty sensitive within the quantitative evaluation. On the one hand there is the ecological dimension, which illustrates the biggest spread and on the other hand there is the societal dimension with a little smaller spread.

Executing the sensitivity analysis within the qualitative evaluation, there is one dimension which is especially sensitive: the ecological dimension.

Regarding the overall global assessment, which unites the qualitative and quantitative assessment, there are three technologies which contain a quite good innovation potential, according to the experts. These are the homomorphic encryption, small-scale energy harvesting and indoor navigation.

Regarding the overall global assessment there are three technologies which contain less innovation potential, according to the experts. These are cognitive radio, smart materials and terahertz sensors.

Cognitive radio and smart materials are positively influenced by all scenarios, whereas homomorphic encryption is negatively influence by all scenarios.


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5 Literature

Cellura, & Mistretta, 2003). Because of the advantages listed above the choice about the appropriate process for the evaluation of emerging security technologies fell on the Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations method (PROMETHEE). Beccali, M., Cellura, M., & Mistretta, M. (2003). Decision-making in energy planning. Application of the ELECTRE method at regional level for the diffusion of renewable energy technology. Renewable Energy, 28 (13), 2063-2087. Brans, J.-P., Vincke, P., & Mareschal, B. (1986). How to select and how to rank projects: The PROMETHEE method. European Journal of Operational Research, 24 (2), 228-238. Geldermann, J. (2006). Mehrzielentscheidungen in der industriellen Produktion. Universitätsverlag Karlsruhe. Geldermann, J., & Rentz, O. (2001). Integrated technique assessment with imprecise information as a support for the identification of best available techniques (BAT). OR Spektrum, 23 (1), 137-157. Geldermann, J., Zhang, K., & Rentz, O. (2002). Entwicklung eines integrierten Gruppenentscheidungsunterstützungssystems. In W. Fichtner, & G. Geldermann, Einsatz von OR-Verfahren zur techno-ökonomischen Analyse von Produktionssystemen (pp. 169-186). Frankfurt am Main, Berlin, Bern, Brüssel, New York, Oxford, Wien: Peter Lang. Hyde, K., Maier, H., & Colby, C. (2003). Incorporating uncertainty in the PROMETHEE MCDA method. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 12 (4-5), 245-259. Polatidis, H., & Haralambopoulos, D. (2007). Renewable energy systems: A societal and technological platform. Renewable Energy, 32 (2), 329-341. Zimmermann, H.-J., & Gutsche, L. (1991). Multi-Criteria Analyse: Einführung in die Theorie der Entscheidungen bei Mehrfachzielsetzungen. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.


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6 Appendix

6.1 Online Survey


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6.2 Assessed Dimensions for the emerging security technologies

6.2.1 Homomorphic Encryption

Criteria Level 1 Evaluation Justification

Technical Dimension

Publication/Patent activity low Software-specific low patent and publication activity, the strategic use of patents might lead to a blockade of technical fields

Research & Development activities for realization high Numerous activities by DARPA, IARPA, University of

Bristol, IBM, FP7 and networks like ECRYPT II, Cripto

Life Cycle high

Security Relevance 6 Application Potential 3 Misuse 1

Current Utilization medium

Fully homomorphic encryption too complex at the current state, but previous technologies like symmetric and asymmetric encryption in today's internet and cloud application

Economical Dimension

Market Potential 3

Time Frame and Maturity 6

Substitution high Lots of different cryptographic technologies

Indirect Costs of Development high

Cryptographic tools such as secure computation or homomorphic encryption are computationally very expensive.

Direct Costs of Development medium

Cryptographic tools such as secure computation or homomorphic encryption are computationally very expensive. Direct costs especially for skilled employees.

Public Funding of Development high Numerous activities by DARPA, IARPA, University of


Private Funding of Development high Numerous activities by DARPA, IARPA, University of


Qualified and trained people high Strong need for skilled information scientists

Societal Dimension Privacy Issues 1 Could raise privacy issues


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Physical or mental harms -misuse 3 Could raise privacy issues

Acceptance - perceived ease of use high No direct handling with the technology, more a

background activity

Acceptance - perceived usefulness medium Given usefulness, but not always perceived by end-

users

Aspects concerning health issues zero No relevant health issues are discovered or expected.

Ecological Dimension

Recycling & Waste disposal zero Computer technology/application, no direct recycling

activities

Resource Efforts and consumption of critical resources

low

No direct impact on critical resources, but cryptographic tools such as secure computation or homomorphic encryption are computationally very expensive. This makes their use for confidentiality protection of the client’s data against an untrusted service provider uneconomical in most applications, e.g.in cloud computing.

Legal & Political dimension Subvention medium

Regulation medium Legal interception by governmental forensic, necessity of harmonized legal framework

Standardization for European market potential

low Necessity of harmonized legal framework, legal specifications regarding standardization are low

6.2.2 Cognitive radio

Criteria Level Evaluation Justification Technical Dimension Publication/Patent activity high Great patent activity during the last years

Research & Development activities for realization high Patent activities point to high R&D development efforts

Life Cycle high

There is a general consensus that the technology for opportunistic access of unused spectrum is out there and ready for field deployment soon. Certain users do not use a good majority of the frequency bands allocated to them and, hence, we have a situation of spectrum wastage leading to shortage. The use of opportunistic access of unused spectrum holds great potential in addressing this pressing challenge. (Reference 7) Roadmap to 2030 (realization)

Security Relevance 1 Application Potential -1 Misuse 3


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Current Utilization medium Mature market in military applications (Reference 2); SDR but not full cognitive radio (Reference 1)

Economical Dimension Market Potential -1 Time Frame and Maturity 3

Substitution low xG Technology, Shared Spectrum Company, Adaptrum: mainly development of SDR value chain


Among the various technology segments, it is observed that the development platforms, custom waveforms, spectrum management techniques and infrastructure technologies are the ones that have a high current impact on both military and non-military applications. Development is strongly US-driven, mainly dominated by the companies from the United States (Reference 9). High infrastructure investments.

Direct Costs of Development low

Among the various technology segments, it is observed that the development platforms, custom waveforms, spectrum management techniques, and infrastructure technologies are the ones that have a high current impact on both military and non-military applications. Development is strongly US-driven, mainly dominated by the companies from the United States (Reference 9).

Public Funding of Development medium

In order for SDR to successfully penetrate the commercial application sectors, a significant amount of research, funding and partnerships are required for technologies such as spectrum sensing, SCA testing tools, COTS, customized waveforms and so on to work together and form global standards. (Reference 2)

Private Funding of Development medium

Among the various technology segments, it is observed that the development platforms, custom waveforms, spectrum management techniques, and infrastructure technologies are the ones that have a high current impact on both military and non-military applications. Development is strongly US-driven, mainly dominated by the companies from the United States (Reference 9).

Qualified and trained people medium Social Dimension

Privacy Issues 3

The growing use of wireless communication devices and networks has created a need for efficient electromagnetic spectrum use (Reference 7); societal and industry wide acceptance through standardization

Physical or mental harms -misuse 3

The growing use of wireless communication devices and networks has created a need for efficient electromagnetic spectrum use (Reference 7); societal and industry wide acceptance through standardization

Acceptance - perceived ease of use medium Current utilization only by specialists, need for wireless

communication devices forces better handling

Acceptance - perceived usefulness high Usability especially for first responders: Reduction of the

number of radios carried in peace keeping operations

Aspects concerning health issues low No relevant health issues are discovered or expected.


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Recycling & Waste disposal low Low waste disposal efforts are necessary.


low

Among the components of an SDR, significant amounts of activity are observed in signal processing, development and testing platforms, spectrum sensing and infrastructure development. (Reference 2)

Legal & Political dimension

Subvention high Need for Resilient Communication in Crisis and Emergencies, Need for secure communication

Regulation low Common global communication as a strong future driver


low Lack of Standardisation

6.2.3 Small-Scale Energy Harvesting

Criteria Level Evaluation Justification

Technical Dimension

Publication/Patent activity high Very high patent activity during the last years (energy harvesting); large scale like PV cells included?

Research & Development activities for realization high Patent activities point to high R&D development efforts.

Life Cycle high Depends on energy harvesting process (medium-high) Security Relevance 2 Application Potential 3 Misuse 1

Current Utilization low

Most of the EHS technologies (energy harvesting devices and technologies) are in initial stages of commercialization or prototyping. There are not many manufacturers who are involved in commercialization and mass production of energy harvesting devices (reference 14).

Economical Dimension Market Potential 3 Time Frame and Maturity 6

Substitution medium

Small external batteries; competing technologies (reference 14): Conventional sources of power without using renewable energy (Batteries -> advantages as well as disadvantages)

Indirect Costs of Development low

Energy harvesting devices eliminate the costs of replacing batteries. This also reduces the maintenance costs (reference 14). Ways of cheaper production methods need to be found/ technology needs a hot mass market that can help lowering the costs of the production (Reference 5).


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Direct Costs of Development high

Energy harvesting devices eliminate the cosst of replacing batteries. This also reduces the maintenance costs (reference 14). Ways of cheaper production methods need to be found/ technology needs a hot mass market that can help lowering the costs of the production (Reference 5).

Public Funding of Development high

Funding from government agencies and venture capitalists backs the development of the technology (reference 14).

Private Funding of Development high

Funding from government agencies and venture capitalists backs the development of the technology (reference 14).

Qualified and trained people high

Current situation: There are no sufficient numbers of manufacturers in this domain to mass produce the energy harvesting modules (reference 14).

Societal Dimension

Privacy Issues 1 Miniaturization and the increasing use of mobile devices are drivers of acceptance in the society.

Physical or mental harms -misuse 3 Miniaturization and the increasing use of mobile devices

are drivers of acceptance in the society.

Acceptance - perceived ease of use high No direct use necessary, background activity

Acceptance - perceived usefulness high especially in sectors like health care, sports

Aspects concerning health issues low

No relevant health issues are discovered or expected. Influence of a long time use of components worn on or in the human body are quite unclear


Recycling & Waste disposal low

Mineral-intensive: Overall, the prices of most minerals have been decreasing; however, the price of minerals still depends heavily on the availability. Possibility of price fluctuations of materials. ZT (ZT measures thermodynamic efficiency) values strongly depend on the purity of the element (Reference 8). Requires moderate recycling activities. But Energy-efficiency technology.


medium

Mineral-intensive: Overall, the prices of most minerals have been decreasing, however, the price of minerals still depends heavily on the availability. Possibility of price fluctuations of materials. ZT (ZT measures thermodynamic efficiency) values strongly depend on the purity of the element (Reference 8).

Legal & Political dimension Subvention medium Maybe in sector of health care?!

Regulation high Resistance of traditional Energy Industry


medium No indicators for standardization


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Criteria Level 1 Evaluation Justification

Technical Dimension

Publication/Patent activity medium Mainly low to medium patent activity during the last years.

Research & Development activities for realization medium Patent activities point to medium R&D development

efforts

Life Cycle low Dynamic Market; fragmented life cycles of technologies indoor navigation is depending on (Sensors or communication systems like WLAN, Bluetooth)

Security Relevance 3

Application Potential 1

Misuse -3

Current Utilization high Pressure Sensors (Third Dimension) for Indoor Navigation (Samsung Galaxy SIII)


Substitution low

Indoor positioning technologies are not dependent on any external network, but they are dependent on certain technologies used for transmitting wireless data in closed environments such as radios, infrared sensors, WLANs and Bluetooth (reference 5).


High costs for data plans, but minimal amount of new infrastructure, but new infrastructure for UWB- and RFID-based solutions (reference 7). In order to establish global mass-market positioning services, architectural considerations could be even more important than the actual choice of the positioning technology or algorithm (Reference 7). Sensor integration

Direct Costs of Development medium

High costs for data plans, but minimal amount of new infrastructure, but new infrastructure for UWB- and RFID-based solutions (reference 7). In order to establish global mass-market positioning services, architectural con-siderations could be even more important than the actual choice of the positioning technology or algorithm (Reference 7).

Public Funding of Development medium Commercialization already started; big global players

Private Funding of Development high Commercialization already started; big global players

Qualified and trained people medium Generation of Database, Sensor integration

Societal Dimension

Privacy Issues -1

Could raise privacy issues; location based services critical; need for seamless navigation; acceptance depends on user friendliness; communication needs to take place in a secure manner (encrypted


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communications) in order to ensure the user privacy (reference 7)


Could raise privacy issues; location based services critical; need for seamless navigation; acceptance depends on user friendliness; communication needs to take place in a secure manner (encrypted communications) in order to ensure the user privacy (reference 7)

Acceptance - perceived ease of use medium High for end-users with mobile devices like smart

phones; Medium for end-users like first responders

Acceptance - perceived usefulness high High usefulness for both kinds of end-users

Aspects concerning health issues zero No relevant health issues are discovered or expected.

Ecological Dimension low No relevant ecological effects are discovered or expected.

Recycling & Waste disposal low Little recycling activities necessary; indirect: recycling of

sensors


low

Used by mobile devices, low resource efforts. Even though integrating an AGNSS chip in a mobile device is already quite cheap, it might still be too expensive to do so in the lowest price segments (reference 7).

Legal & Political dimension Subvention low Pprobably not politically driven

Regulation medium Legal restrictions: Data Security regulations


medium no indicators for standardization

6.2.4 Smart Textiles

Criteria Level Evaluation Justification Technical Dimension

Publication/Patent activity low

Mainly low to medium patent activity during the last years. The patent holders of new technologies during 2008 and 2011 were mostly research institutions or universities (Hong Kong Polytechnic Uni, Boston Scientific Scimed, Inc., ETH Zürich) and several law offices.

Research & Development activities for realization medium Patent activities point to medium R&D development efforts

Life Cycle medium

High development potential: power supply systems, self cleaning materials, garments fully integrated with biological and physiological sensors, in numerous markets (sports, healthcare, military use); product lif cycle of textiles are very short

Security Relevance 5


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Application Potential 3 Misuse 3

Current Utilization medium

Currently an increasing demand for functional fabrics and clothes for sports and outdoor activities and for apparel and footwear in general may be observed. More wearable electronics than smart textiles.


Substitution medium

Similar technologies can be found among medical devices such as electrocardiographs or chest belts. Phase Change Materials (important for smart materials) are also used in commercial buildings to save energy.

Indirect Costs of Development medium

It is necessary to combine two completely different industries. The clothing fabrication with labour-intensive activities in countries with low labour costs and the electronic industry with expensive and precise working processes.

Direct Costs of Development high At the moment, smart textiles are distinguished by high

production and selling costs, which limit their expansion.

Public Funding of Development medium

Due to very slim margins, the textile industry has not spent large amounts of money on research and development, one reason why there is a need for innovation. Research and development are driven by academic, industrial and military forces. The EU has funded a number of interrelated, specifically targeted research projects.

Private Funding of Development medium

Due to very slim margins, the textile industry has not spent large amounts of money on research and development, one reason why there is a need for innovation. Research and development are driven by academic, industrial and military forces. The EU has funded a number of interrelated, specifically targeted research projects.

Qualified and trained people low

Societal Dimension

Privacy Issues -1

Ethical considerations have been identified as a major barrier to the delivery of remote healthcare and it is suggested that clear guidelines are needed for providing the privacy, confidentiality and proper use of electronic medical information. Integrity issue: Acceptance of the new technologies is connected with the confidentiality of patient data.


Ethical considerations have been identified as a major barrier to the delivery of remote healthcare and it is suggested that clear guidelines are needed for providing the privacy, confidentiality and proper use of electronic medical information. Integrity issue: Acceptance of the new technologies is connected with the confidentiality of patient data.


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Acceptance - perceived ease of use medium

Ease of use is not given at the current state, more worn electronics than smart textiles or materials; Sports sector (shoes etc.) is precursor

Acceptance - perceived usefulness low Usefulness especially in the health and sports sector


Recycling & Waste disposal medium

There is always a risk of implementing new materials in textiles that are worn close to the body. Nanoparticles, for example, present possible dangers both medically and environmentally. High surface to volume ratio can make the particles very reactive or catalytic. They are also able to pass through cell membranes in organisms and their interactions with biological systems are relatively unknown.


medium

Metallic fibres are metal-coated plastics or plastic-coated metals. The most common metal used is aluminium with a volatile price structure. Carbon fibre, a material with conductivity comparable to that of metal, may be used in smart textiles if the handling is improved. As carbon fibres are applied in the aerospace industry and in the wind energy market, the demand will rise from 52,500 tons in 2012 to 153,700 tons in 2020.

Legal & Political dimension Subvention low No indicators for subvention.

Regulation low No indicators for regulation.


low No indicators for standardization.

6.2.5 Sensor Technologies

Criteria Level 1 Evaluatio

n Justification Technical Dimension

Publication/Patent activity high

Very high patent activity during the last years (terahertz sensors); the companies with a noticeably large number of patents for terahertz technologies include: TeraView Ltd. (UK), Canon Inc. (Global), Picometrix (Advances Photonics Inc., Michigan).

Research & Development activities for realization high Patent activities point to high R&D development efforts

Life Cycle high

Long life cycle; first products on the market, but the technology readiness level is still medium; improvements of the technology are expected between 2020 and 2030 in order to fulfil end-users' security requirements (Reference 1). THz imaging at this point of time is in its stage of growth. The key industries in which terahertz imaging and spectroscopy are expected to have a major impact in five


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years’ time are Pharmaceutical, Automotive coating, Paper industry, Food and beverage industry, Polymer industry and so on. (Reference 8).

Security Relevance 6 Application Potential 3 Misuse 3

Current Utilization high

Numerous applications for THz technology exist and many industrial branches can benefit from its unique capabilities. Current application in Security and Surveillance, Pharmaceutical Use, Non-destructive Testing, Quality Assurance (Food and agricultural products), Information and Communications Technology, Medical Diagnostics (Reference 4). Terahertz technologies already benefited from quite a lot of research and some products already exist on the market (Reference 1).


Substitution medium

Terahertz is more effective than basis techniques such as infrared spectroscopy, XRPD (X ray powder diffraction), differential scanning calorimetric, thermal gravimetric analysis, hot-stage microscopy, infrared [IR], Raman spectroscopy, solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance [ssNMR], and so on. But there are quite a lot of detection techniques (Reference 8).

Indirect Costs of Development medium

While a growing community of scientists and engineers are working on improved instrumentation and looking for new applications, sustained advances in reducing size and costs of terahertz instrumentation are required (Reference 4).

Direct Costs of Development high

While a growing community of scientists and engineers are working on improved instrumentation and is looking for new applications, sustained advances in reducing size and cost of terahertz instrumentation are required (Reference 4).

Public Funding of Development high

Fortunately, a plethora of research projects are currently pursued so that THz systems rapidly approach large-scale market introduction. After years of considerable research, the industry has been able to understand what unique value terahertz technology can bring to customers and as sources, detectors, sensors, and systems have matured, the technology is now at a stage where it provides real solutions to customer needs across a range of sectors. (Reference 4).

Private Funding of Development high

Fortunately, a plethora of research projects are currently pursued, so that THz systems rapidly approach large-scale market introduction. After years of considerable research, the industry has been able to understand what unique value terahertz technology can bring to customers and as sources, detectors, sensors, and systems have matured, the technology is now at a stage where it provides real solutions to customer needs across a range of sectors. (Reference 4).


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Qualified and trained people high Societal Dimension

Privacy Issues -1

Long waiting lines; privacy issues; In addition to having the capability of imaging concealed objects, a terahertz imager also has the capability of revealing some anatomical features of the individuals being screened. Displaying detailed anatomical features of a person is considered a violation of that individual’s privacy (Reference 1).


Long waiting lines; privacy issues; In addition to having the capability of imaging concealed objects, a terahertz imager also has the capability of revealing some anatomical features of the individuals being screened. Displaying detailed anatomical features of a person is considered a violation of that individual’s privacy (Reference 1).

Acceptance - perceived ease of use low Current applications are not easy to handle (rise of arms,

rotational movement)

Acceptance - perceived usefulness medium Necessity of security controls and the control of terrorism

Aspects concerning health issues medium

Unlike other screening technologies, the THz radiation is not hazardous to humans (Reference 2). Terahertz technology is said to have no health issues compared to X-Ray technology for example. THz imaging is believed to cause little harm to biological tissue. However, as an emerging technology, the long-term effects have not been well known yet and must be monitored in the future (Reference 1).


Recycling & Waste disposal medium Current applications are big and heavy, recycling efforts

are moderate.


medium Great computational complexity, need for electronic components and semiconductors

Legal & Political dimension Subvention medium No indicators for subvention

Regulation high Lots of regulations concerning radiation protection, fire protection and so on


medium

Mainly driven by the USA; International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on international level; EU regulation by the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) are often US-oriented

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