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Societal Concerns as Wicked Problems

Sandra S. Batie

Michigan State University

OECD Paris Nov 2009

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Societal Concerns

• Accepted values of society

• Appeal to a broad range of people

• Commodity, non-commodity, or processes and production practices

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Societal Concerns

• Tame vs. Wicked

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Outline

• What are wicked problems?

• What are tame problems?

• What policy challenges are posed by wicked problems?

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Outline (cont.)

• Trade liberalization as a tame versus a wicked problem

• Implications for policy development

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I. Wicked and Tame Problems

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What are they?

Problems

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– Animal Welfare

– Global Climate Change

– Biofuel Production

– GMO Foods

– Sustainable Development

– Trade Liberalization

Problems

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Tame Problems

• Identifying the source of food contamination

• Cost effectiveness of conservation practices

• Costs and benefits of expanding an irrigation project

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Characteristic

Tame Problem

Wicked Problem

1. The problem Clear definition of problem and potential solutions

Problem does not change overtime

No agreement about what the problem is or what solutions are possible

Creating solutions changes the problem

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Characteristic

Tame Problem

Wicked Problem

2. The problem Outcome is true or false, successful or unsuccessful

Outcomes are “better” or “worse”

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Characteristic

Tame Problem

Wicked Problem

3. The role of stakeholders

Limited role for stakeholders

Crucial role for stakeholders who hold different definitions of the “real” problem, its causes and potential solutions

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Characteristic

Tame Problem Wicked Problem

3. The role of experts

Experts trusted to find causes and identify solutions based primarily on scientific data

Experts are not trusted to decide desirable outcomes

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Characteristic

Tame Problem

Wicked Problem

4. The “stopping rule”

The task is completed when the problem is solved

No definitive solution.

Endpoint is determined by stakeholders, by political forces, and/or by resource availability

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Characteristic

Tame Problem

Wicked Problem

5. Nature of the problem

Scientifically based protocols guide the choice of solution(s)

No “optimal/ best practices” available.

Solution-seeking processes are based on “judgments” of multiple stakeholders

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Characteristic

Tame Problem Wicked Problem

6. Nature of the problem

Low uncertainty as to system components and outcomes

High uncertainty as to system components and outcomes

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Characteristic

Tame Problem

Wicked Problem

7. Nature of the problem

Shared values as to desirability of outcomes

No shared values as to desirability of outcomes

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Wicked Problems

• Many interdependencies• Multi-causal• Unintended consequences to solutions• Moving target, unstable• Socially complex• Rarely the responsibility of one organization• Involve changing peoples’ behavior

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High

Low

HighLow Value Conflict

Wicked Problems

Tame Problems

Uncertainty

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II. Policy Challenges Posed by Wicked Problems

Problems

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Normal Science and Policy

• Normal science has a close relationship with the creation of policy alternatives

• Since WWII, normal science has been guided by a linear model

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Normal Science

• Normal science adds to the details of established theory but does not challenge or test its assumptions

• Normal science is what most disciplines do most of the time (i.e., conventional)

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Reservoir of knowledge

Appraised by criteria internal to science

Appraised by criteria external to science

Societal benefits: Economic, environmental, medical, industrial, technological, …

Basic research

Applied research

Development

Source: Pielke, R.A. Jr., and R. Byerly Jr. 1998.

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Normal Science & Policy• Scientific progress leads to social

progress

• Chicago 1933 World’s Fair Motto

“Science Finds, Industry Applies, Man Conforms”

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Linear Model of Science• Division between researchers and users

• Implies that reaching a consensus on science is a prerequisite for a political consensus

• “What is” conflates with “what ought to be”

• Implies reducing scientific uncertainty reduces political uncertainty

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Linear Model Assumptions

• More likely to be true when:

– Widespread agreement on what is a desirable outcome

– Low uncertainty about system component parts and outcomes

– That is, when the problem is tame

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Example

• Developing a vaccine to prevent the spread of a human disease

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Normal Science is Not Well-suited for Wicked Problems

• Conflict in values over what are desirable outcomes

• Uncertainty about system component parts and outcomes

• Can not gather facts without first discussing values

• Must engage stakeholders

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Wicked Problems• Even when dialogue

occurs and includes all actors– Clear solutions

rarely emerge– Rather, via

negotiation, processes are identified which are judged better or worse (not right or wrong)

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Society is changing what it is asking of science, the role of science in decision making is quite complex.

– Pielke 2007

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III. Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem

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Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem

• Economic (normal) science argues for policy “intervention” toward trade liberalization

• No uncertainty about the desirability of liberalized trade

• No uncertainty about cause and effect

• Conclusion = we “ought” to liberalize trade

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Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem

• Undesirable outcomes (e.g. social concerns) are market failures

• Correct with government “intervention”

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Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem

• Does not question the wisdom of trade liberalization

• Movements away from trade liberalization that are not market failures are inefficient and to be avoided or banned

Inefficiency

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GATT and Tame Problems• Early postwar GATT relatively successful

• Few players

• Dominance and leadership by U.S.

• Explicit issues about manufactured goods

• Problems more tame, agreement was more likely– Agriculture sector not as successful, more

wicked

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Of course, if trade liberalization were a still a tame problem today, the Doha rounds would be completed and a success.

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IV.Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem

• Trade does not benefit all

• There are winners and losers

• Cannot assume that efficiency is a widely shared social goal or that a commonly shared definition of efficiency exists

• Wicked problems challenge normal economic science

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Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem

• Social goals do not come from scientific paradigms

• Social goals come from deliberative, democratic processes

• Social goals are political decisions and not scientific ones

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Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem

• New and many more players with WTO

• No consensus about the desirability of trade liberalization proposals

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New Social Concerns

• New issues, new publics• Animal welfare• Hormone use

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New Social Concerns

• Regional foods and labels

• Treatment of workers

• Protection of rural communities

• GMOs…

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Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem

• New and many more players with WTO

• No consensus about the desirability of trade liberalization proposals

• Transaction costs are higher

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Costs of Decision Making

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GATT/WTO Members and Length of Negotiations

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nu

mb

er o

f M

em

bers a

nd

Mo

nth

s

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9GATT/WTO Trade Rounds

Members in GATT/WTOMonths of Negotiations

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Uncertainty About Causeand Effect

• No consensus on the validity of dispute resolution rules

• Limited faith in science’s ability to manage risks

• Rising concern about sustainability • Ease of communications to form virtual

communities of like-minded individuals

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“I do not care if GMOs are safe, I do not want to eat them!”

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Scientific Risk Assessments

• Risk assessments do not incorporate all values

• Controversial because they have all the characteristics of a wicked problem

• Dispute resolution rulings do not quell the debate

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High

Low

HighLow Value Conflict

Wicked Problems

Perceived High Risk Problems

Tame Problems

Perceived Low Risk Problems

Uncertainty

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Debate continues

• Conflicts over whose values will prevail

• Conflicts over what tradeoffs are worth making

• Conflicts over who should bear the costs and who should gain the benefits

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Normal Science, Wicked Problems, and Policy

• When values are in conflict, experts cannot dictate policy objectives

• If they try to do so with wicked problems, the frequent outcome is gridlock and controversy

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V. Implications

• Science can inform wicked problem decisions, but cannot make them

• Science alone cannot decide the adequacy of risk assessments

• Where there are substantial value divergences/conflicts the design of the decision processes is crucial

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Thank You!