Societal Challenges

• Population• Food• Energy• Water• Environment• Climate Change

• Health• Poverty

• Population

aka Wicked Problems

• Agricultural Competitiveness Improve crop and animal agriculture; enhance farm productivity

and income; policies; supply chain; storage; transportation• Ecological Footprint

Water/land use, natural resource and environmental stewardship, greenhouse gas, global climate change, depleted soils

• BioeconomyReplacements for petroleum-based products and enhance

community economic well being• Health

Food safety, nutrition, obesity, type II diabetes, cardiovascular disease, dementia, cancer, hunger, poverty, families/children

21st Century Food System Challenges

Feed, shelter, clothe > 9 billion• Climate change• Land and water constraints• Increasing urbanization• Environmental degradation• Minimal ecological footprint• Changing income and diets• Positive health outcomes

The Nexus

Sustainability = 3 Ps

$$http://www.clker.com/clipart-smaller-crowd-rdc-color.html

http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/54000/54388/BlueMarble3Kx3K.tif

Farming systems• Improved technologies

Productivity gap: 1.52% Peak farmland – Ausubel et

al. 2013• Closed loop systems• Cooperatives – Kibbutz?• Integrated/diversified• Smart farming

Robotics, sensors, sentinels

• Resilient intensification Policies and consequences

• Vertical farming• Hydroponics• Aquaponics

Fish culture and irrigationARO, Israel: Harpaz 2012

GRAINS

MEASURED AS EDIBLE MEAT

100 KG FEED(protein,

carbohydrates, fat)

GIVES

ARO, Israel: Harpaz 2012

Feed Efficiency

Double food production in 40 years Cut loss/waste by half? Impact climate change

Water• Quantity and quality

~70-90 percent for food Food safety issues

• Increase water productivityCrop per drop

• BiologicalPhysiological – Transpiration Genetics ‘omics

• Food processing• Virtual water

• Engineering, Physical Irrigation, recycling, reuseDesalination

• Robotics, sensors, sentinels

India21%

China21%

Rest of Asia30%

USA7%

Rest of Amer-

ica7%

Europe8%

Africa4%

Australia1%

FAOStat 2009

Roy et al. 2010. http://rd.tetratech.com/climatechange/projects/doc/Tetra_Tech_Climate_Report_2010_lowres.pdf

Water Sustainability Index 2050

(adapted from graphic in Understandng the Nexus: Background paper for the Bonn2011 Nexus Conference )

Bioeconomy• Food vs. fuel

Grain based vs. cellulosic• Advanced biofuels – Renewable Fuel Standard – goal

EPA: 36 BGY by 2022; Pres. Obama: 60 BGY by 2030o 2012 goal: 8.65 MGY; actual 20,000 gallons

• ChallengesWater use Feedstocks

o Agricultural, forestry, algal, municipal wastesBiochemical vs. thermochemical process Impact of fracking

• Petroleum- vs. bio- chemical feedstocks

Humans Matter• Consumers, businesses, groups, communities,

towns, states and countries make decisions Information-dependent: Haves and Havenots

• Acceptance of technologies• People impacts

Technical, Policy, Regulatory, and Social Change• Social Sciences

Behavior, Choices, AttitudesRisk and Change

• Nexus of Bio-Physical and Social SciencesAdvance science and integrate into society

Science 303:47-48 (2 January 2004)

Path Forward: New Paradigms

Path Forward• Virtual water and nitrogen

True costs?• Transformative approaches

Blue RevolutionPerennial/multi croppingAlgae in oceans?Modern Meadow, Inc.

o 3-D printingBio-/nano-technologyConversion of deserts

• Pest management

• Education & Extension• Policy research• Research investments• Partnerships

GovernmentsAcademicPrivateNGOs

• Big data

Hoekstra and Mekonnen 2012. PNAS. doi:10.1073/pnas.1109936109

Virtual Water Flows

Researchable Questions

• Limiting water and energy footprints?• Optimal crop portfolio?• Regional water distribution policy analyses?• Power plants vs. irrigation?• Environmentally-friendly labeling?• Impact of reduced food waste on reducing

water/energy used in food production?

• Impact of water stress on plant- and animal-disease/pest interactions?

• How do chemical signals between plants/animals and microbes change during water stress?

• Why are water-stressed plants and animals more susceptible to diseases? Are defense pathways altered?

• Mechanism of plant/animal response to water stress?• Impact of water-stress on plant/animal development? On

photosynthesis? On water use efficiency? • Impact of water quality on crop and livestock production

and protection?

• Life cycle analyses• Integrated information and improved technologies on

impact of water conservation policies and practices at watershed scale

• Decision support and data to foster behavioral changes, inform policy design, and science priority decision making

• Accurate quantification of water use and integrated watershed data

• Quantifying impacts of drought• Risk assessment of drought and links to climate change• Public perceptions• Role of water banks and other market-based mechanisms

Data Needs

• Development of drought tolerant or water conserving species

• Impacts of water reuse• Data on landscape limits to energy production

(bioenergy/fracking) and impact on food production/water resources

• Data of where, when, and how much water is actually used

• Data on quantity and quality of U.S. groundwater resources

• Better monitoring of the nexus, nor coordinating across all three systems

• True economic cost of degraded natural resources

NIFA Programs

FY 2013 NIFA Funding Opportunities Climate

• AFRI Climate Change, $5 million, closes April 15• Carbon Cycle Science (NASA, DOE, NOAA) $4.5

million, closes July 31• Water Sustainability and Climate (NSF), $5

million, closes September 10• Multi-National Call on Agricultural Greenhouse

Gas Research (EU, New Zealand, Canada) $0.5 million, closes September 3

FY 2013 NIFA Funding Opportunities Bioenergy

• AFRI Sustainable Bioenergy– $10 million CAP award, closes April 3– $3 million standard grants (3-6 awards), closed April 3

• Plant Feedstock Genomics for Bioenergy (DOE), $2 million closed February 25

• Small Business Innovation Research Phase I – up to $100,000 Phase II – up to $450,000

• AFRI Foundational – Plant Health & Production and Plant Products, $37 million, closed

Feb. 19– Engineering Products & Processes, $12 million, closed February 13

FY 2013 NIFA Funding Opportunities Food Security

• AFRI Food Security, $5 million, closes July 17