sirkka heinonen

Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions – Government Foresight Process and Its Evaluations

Sirkka Heinonen

Finland Futures Research CentreHelsinki Office

University of Turku

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Backcasting Scenarios for Finland 2050 of Low Emissions

Background•Since 1990’s each Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report on major future challenges

•Prime Minister’s Office is in charge of work for each foresight report, carried out in co-operation with relevant ministries and other public organizations

•A large group of experts (research institutes, private companies, NGOs) is consulted during the process

•2008-2009 government foresight report on climate and energy policy

•Several studies on issues concerning the effects and ways to prevent or adapt to climate change were commissioned•Things investigated: prerequisites for limiting climate change globally, cost-effectiveness of climate policy, mainstreaming of climate perspective


Scenario process

• Government foresight report included a scenario process

• To depict 4 possible end states and corresponding paths that would lead Finland to Low-carbon Society in 2050

• Purpose: to reflect various possibilities to achieve sustainable future while maintaining the current standard of living

•Comparison of scenarios: discussion which paths are favourable

• A Priori Desired goals for 2050:

1. development that will contribute to limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2 C° at the most

2. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 % from levels of 1990


The use of backcasting as a Scenario method

•The use of backcasting was specifically predetermined

• The envisioned future state was set (accomplishing two-degree target without significant loss in welfare)

• opposite of forecasting – predicting the future based on current trend analysis (using trend extrapolation) “from now to then”• backcasting envisions futures from opposite direction “from then to now” = coming back from the future to the present

• aims to illustrate the logical path that is required in order to reach a given future state = what has to precede

• A desirable future end state is imagined and visualised, not as continuation of present trends, but as a giant leap directly to the future (with a subsequent link of logic steps preceding it)

Giant Leap to Finland 2050 of Low Emissions


Backcasting Scenario

The use of backcasting as a method notable in two aspects

1) by its nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (target-orientated) i.e. adopted for search for preferred futures (Robinson 1982)

2) growing interest in BCS in Finland notable, but only a few made

• Backcasting approach frequently used in countries like

the Netherlands, Canada, Australia (Dunlop 2009), and Sweden (Åkerman 2011)

• BC applied especially for climate, energy and transport scenarios


Scenario process

A number of basic assumptions based on previous research were set before the scenario work (to apply behind all development paths):

1.The population in Finland is assumed to grow from the current 5.3 million to 5.7million by 20502.The Finnish economy will grow markedly by 2050, but the structure of the economy can change 3.Low-carbon technology will improve significantly in all sectors by 20504.The prices of fossil fuels will rise and the cost of utilising renewable energy sources will decline5.The Finns’ values will change and preparedness to take action to restrict emissions will increase6.Climate change will alter the conditions in Finland by 2050: the need for heating energy will diminish and the agricultural growing period will become longer


Scenario process

Methodology

• All stages were conducted within a timeframe of 4 months

•The process was carried out as a concise Delphi process consisting of 2 rounds of questionnaires and 2 future workshops

•These 4 elements formed an integral process where in each stage a deeper understanding of future-affecting socio-technical interconnections emerged

•Thus enabling a more precise view of the possible paths towards sustainable futures

• a team of experts invited by PMO 140 people wide range of expertise relevant to climate an energy issues (researchers, officials, business repr, NGO)


Progress of the scenario processPhase Time Method Goal

Material gathering and final design of the study

September 2008

Literary review, environmental scanning

Review on the background reports, specifying the end state, designing 1st questionnaire. Defining the expert group involved in the workshops.

1st Delphi round October 2008

Delphi: online survey for expert group (Webropol)

Inviting & informing the expert group. Collecting views on the most important variables on which climate and energy policy should focus.

Futures workshop October 2008

Futures workshop,ACTVOD – futuresprocess

Building alternative scenarios that fulfill the two-degree target.

2nd Delphi round November 2008

Delphi: online survey for expert group (Webropol)

Testing and specifying the development paths constructed in the 1st workshop: what actions and which actors play key roles. 4 distinctive scenarios are constructed.

Futures workshop November 2008

Futures workshop,ACTVOD – futuresprocess

Analysing and specifying the 4 designed scenarios.

Final report December 2008

Final report in electronic format

Report gathers together the results of the process: 4 different paths for the desired end state.


Scenario work

The first Round of Delphi

•The first Delphi Round: to collect views of the expert group to provide a basis for scenario work

• most important questions:

1)estimations on the importance and possibilities of the most important energy consuming sectors (transport, housing, industry) in cutting down GHG’s

2) how much trouble the Finns are willing to saccept in exchange for more sustainable future

Many open questions for explaining how and through what kind of mechanism the future unfolds.


Scenario work

The first Futures Workshop

•Task was to collect views and visions on the ways to achieve the low emission future.

• one day in three consecutive phases:

1) The imaginary phase (futures wheel),

2) The systematising phase (futures table), and

3) The explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050)

• a lot of material produced to form the building blocks for the four scenarios that were to be determined as a result of the whole foresight process.


Scenario work

The second Round of Delphi • Based on the material from the preceding two phases: 1st Delhi Round + 1st Futures Workshop

• developed further to form four distinctive scenario drafts (FFRC team as back office work)

• scenario drafts introduced to the panellists

• to assess their qualities: credibility, desirability, as well as obstacles and drivers for realisation of each scenario

• to improve the drafted scenarios• to fill the gaps in the information needed to form a solid general view of the future• additional questions focused on possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors


Scenario work

The second Futures Workshop

•Task was to envision necessary steps and actions leading to the desired futures

• Method was to come back and forth with the present and the future

•Goal was to view, assess and complete the scenarios

•Final results were the 4 scenarios that fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 % from levels of 1990


The four final scenarios

1. Efficiency Revolution

(concentration on diminishing energy consumption)

2. Sustainable Daily Mile

(concentration on restraining urban sprawl)

3. Be Self-Sufficient (concentration on self-sufficiency)

4. Technology is the Key

(business-as-usual scenario, solutions relying on decentralized energy production and increased use of nuclear power)


Description of the constructed scenarios

SCENARIO

/VARIABLE

A

Efficiency Revolution

B

Sustainable Daily Mile

C

Be Self-sufficient

D

Technology is the Key

Leading idea Eco-efficiency, diminishing energy consumption,

Restraining urban sprawl and diminishing personal transport needs

Self-sufficiency, relying on home-grown renewable materials

Business as usual, relying on heavy industry

Economy Stable growth Stable growth Slow growth Stable growth

Basis of economic structure (industry)

Energy scarce service sector, high-tech products and high skill-level services most important sources of income, no energy intensive industry

Demand and supply of small-scale local products and “at-home” services has increased significantly. Infrastructure planning and ecological wood building booming areas. Domestic demand for mass-consumption goods has fallen, some export of these goods (and jobs in these industries) still exist.

Strong agriculture- and forest industry with many innovative high-value products (not just grain and paper)

Both knowledge- and resource as well as energy-intensive businesses; knowledge intensive services highly concentrated in the south of the country. Middle- and northern parts of the country live from agriculture, forest industry and mining



SCENARIO

/VARIABLE

. A


B


C

Be Self-sufficient

D


Buildings Very strict norms on energy consumption for both old and new buildings, all new buildings are plusenergy buildings

Tight energy norms. Wood used extensively in building. Versatile communal spaces (baths, recreation spaces) in buildings make apartment buildings a real option for detatched houses.

Tight energy norms. Buildings made from wood and other domestically available materials. All suitable buildings produce energy (solar, geothermal, biomass, wind). Gardens and greenhouses in residential areas.

Some development in energy norms. Average living space and total area of heated buildings has increased significantly. People commonly own more than one property (typically a city apartment or a town house and a holiday residence or cottage in the countryside)



SCENARIO

/VARIABLE

. A


B


C

Be Self-sufficient

D


Transport Hugely increased telework, telepresence and virtual travel has lowered the need for personal transportation considerably

Passenger and industry transport needs diminished. Everyday personal traffic increasingly by foot, by bike or by improved public transport systems. With goods transport rapid development of intelligent logistic chains has lowered the demand.

Passenger transport with electrical vehicles

Transport needs grown, both passenger and freight traffic increased


Description of the constructed scenariosSCENARIO

/VARIABLE

A


B


C

Be Self-sufficient

D


Energy consumption

Consumption halved from 2008 level. Dramatical improvements in energy efficiency and elastic price system the main reasons behind decreased consumption.

Decreased by ¼ from 2008 level. Transportation and buildings require significantly less energy than in 2008

Decreased by 1/3 from 2008 level. New houses and buildings in rural areas either passive or plusenergy houses and/or relying on renewables.

at the 2008 level or slightly higher

Energy production

all energy produced with renewable sources

50% renewable, 50% nuclear energy (use of nuclear power has increased slightly from 2008)

75% renewable, rest with nuclear energy

share of renewables less than 50%, use of nuclear energy has increased clearly, CCS technologies in use

Urban structure

Cohesive, in urban areas people move closer to central cities, in the countryside villages grow

Highly cohesive around local town centres where residential areas are located densely within a walking distance from the local centre

Dispersed accross the country. Aim for as extensive self-sufficiency as possible guides the structural development

Dispersed in urban areas, current trend where people move further away from city centres in search of larger houses, continues



SCENARIO

/VARIABLE

A


B


C

Be Self-sufficient

D


Change in values

Not a great change, the biggest change is the increased willingness to adapt and take advantage of solutions produced by the development in ICT

Transformation away from culture of mass-consumption. Wasteful behaviour in both the private consumers and industry (especially retail) is considered undesirable

Environmental values and understanding of nature’s processes highly valued. Responsibility for one’s own welfare and actions has increased.

Very little change: preserving equal rights for everyone to choose one’s own way of living (where and how to live, what, how and how much to consume, etc.) the most important value

Relation towards environment

Nature as the most important asset. Pre-emptive nature conservation

Nature as a source of admiration and recreation

Nature as a partner Cleaning up the mess made as much as possible

Relation towards technology

New technology as a lever and enabler

Reshaping old; finding new intelligent ways to use old technologies

New technology as a lever and enabler, mimicking nature, industrial ecology

Search for innovations to boost economic growth and improve the state of the environment


The core message about the factors influencing whether or not the set targets will be attained

• considerable changes required in attitudes and ways of acting of both the citizens, as well as different industries

• areas facing the biggest pressure to change: energy intensive industry, polluting energy industry (esp. peat), transport and logistics, construction, meat production, and travelling

• PESSIMISM most often mentioned hindrances: cynicism (small country – global problem, why bother), scattered community structure, motoring as everyman’s right, one family houses as ideal

• OPTIMISM (positive factors in Finnish society favouring the attainment of climate policy goals): Finns’ close relation to nature, genuine will to work for the environment, obedience to law, good technological knowhow, abundant resources of biofuels, infrastructure from forest to industry already in place, Finns already recycle


External and Internal Evaluations • Internal evaluation of the effectiveness of the preparation process, in general and the usability of foresight in policy planning

•Two external evaluations:

1)Official statement by Committee for the Future (2011): support and attention on three aspects i. forest, food, water, biopolitics; ii. Innovations, courage, pioneering; iii. Economy, employment, entrepreneurship, wellbeing. Special focus on green growth (esp. wood production and exports, job creation).

Criticism: why the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement chosen as the only starting point?

2) Expert evaluation (Wilenius 2011): extent of constructing the scenarios unique and pioneering, recommendation for further use, how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path dependences in more detail, Minister of Climate and Energy for next gov.! Deeper focus on economic implications of climate and energy policy (employment, industrialisation, investments, and education policy)


Conclusions • Retrospective event by Prime Minister’s Office March 29, 2011. Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen:

1)major breakthrough achievement to have Finland committed to reducing emissions by at least 80% by 2050

2)Wide public debate launched on low emissions communities and low carbon society – long-term narratives with one robust national goal: Finland of low emissions 2050!

•Possibility of degrowth economy was raised during the scenario work, but was not given enough chance to be further discussed in 2008

•Challenging task: scenario work needs time and resources!

•Open question: how various ministries will connect themselves in implementing the recommendations and conclusions in government foresight report•Measures and steps for reaching the goal will continue to be discussed

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Thank You!

Sirkka HeinonenProfessor of Futures StudiesFinland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)University of TurkuHelsinki Office: Korkevuorenkatu 25 A 200130 HelsinkiHead of Future of Media and Communicationssirkka.heinonen at tse.fi

sirkka heinonen

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