siah series of lectures on public diplomacy jerusalem autumn 2007
TRANSCRIPT
SIAH series of lectures on Public Diplomacy
JerusalemAutumn 2007
Jerusalem
Autumn 2007
Land and Peace in the Middle East
Examining Size, Significance and Solutions
Israel & the Moslem WorldIsrael & the Moslem World
Israel & the Arab WorldIsrael & the Arab World
98,500 sq kmS. Korea
Israel
20,770 sq km
S. Korea
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
300,000 sq km
20,770 sq km
Philippines
Israel
Philippines
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel Israel
Israel
a. 3 miles wide hereb. Golan Heightsc. Sea of Galileed. Jordan River... Sea of Galilee to Dead Seae. 1967 "Green Line"... the 1949 armistice lines separating Israel from its heartland of Judea-Samaria when Jordanian forces illegally annexed it. After the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel regained that land... at which time the world began referring to Judea and Samaria as the "West Bank" in order to try to erase any Jewish connection to this historically Jewish land!f. 9 miles wide hereg. Tel Avivh. Jerusalemi. Dead Seaj. Gaza Strip: 5 miles x 25 miles The surrounding 22 Arab countries are 640 times larger than tiny Israel yet they expect Israel to turn over all the West Bank, Gaza Strip, the Golan Heights and half of Jerusalem... territory they lost after they started the 1967 war!
1976 Green LineJordan Valley
Ben Gurion Airport
Rishon Le’Zion
Water Line
צילם: יהואר גל
● Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases
● Principal Power Stations
● Sweet Water System
● Crucial Communications and Transport Systems
● Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military
● Vital Centers of Military Command & Control, and Centers of Civilian Government
● 80% of the Population and 80% of the Economic Activity
הרתעהDeterrence
התרעהEarly Warning
הכרעהVictory
השגת המידע המודיעיני )איסוף(
השגת המידע המודיעיני )איסוף(
הבנת משמעות המידע
)הערכה(
הבנת משמעות המידע
)הערכה(
הוצאות המסקנות המתבקשות
הוצאות המסקנות המתבקשות
קבלת ההחלטותקבלת ההחלטות
השלבים הנחוצים ליצירת התרעה
השלבים הנחוצים ליצירת התרעה
הכרעההתרעההרתעה
השגת המידע המודיעיני )איסוף(
השגת המידע המודיעיני )איסוף(
הבנת משמעות המידע
)הערכה(
הבנת משמעות המידע
)הערכה(
הוצאות המסקנות המתבקשות
הוצאות המסקנות המתבקשות
קבלת ההחלטותקבלת ההחלטות
הכרעההתרעההרתעה
השגת המידע המודיעיני )איסוף(
השגת המידע המודיעיני )איסוף(
הבנת משמעות המידע
)הערכה(
הבנת משמעות המידע
)הערכה(
הוצאות המסקנות המתבקשות
הוצאות המסקנות המתבקשות
קבלת ההחלטותקבלת ההחלטות
ב
ל
י
מ
ה
Satellite Photo Showing
Israel
Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and HistoryHistory, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993 , New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993
I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much.
* See Appendix D. Editor
The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River.
What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.*
The Mountain Aquifer Recharge, Storage, and Pumping Areas
Recharge Area
Storage Area
Pumping Area
Aquifer
Aquiclude
Mediterranean
Jordan Valley
Subterranean Flow
Recharge Areas of the Mountain AquiferRecharge Areas of the Mountain Aquifer
The Mountain Aquifer –Water Movement and Sources of Salination
Direction of Salt Propagation
Pumping Sites
Coastal Plain
Judea & Samaria Highlands
Green Line
Jordan R.
Mediterranean Sea
Mountain Aquifer
Direction of Subterranean Flow of Ground Water in the
Aquifer
Surface Discharge of Aquifer
Direction of Progression of
Salting
Direction of Flow of Pollutants
אזור המילוי החוזר
גשם על מחשופי האקוויפר מעבר לקו
הירוק
It is the rain falling on the West Bank that recharges the aquifer; any new wells drilled between the recharge area and the Israeli taps could cut off supply and, by lowering the water tables in the part of the aquifer that extends to the west of the Green Line, allow saline water from greater depths to seep in, permanently ruining what is left” US News & World Report, 16.12.91.
Wells within Israel proper were tapping this water long before the Six-Day War. But as the population and water demand on both sides of the Green Line have grown, the control of the western slopes has attained a new and vital importance for Israel.
Location of wells and springs in districts of the West Bank
Head of Military Intelligence: The Arabs Demand 60 Percent of
Israel’s Water
Anyone who controls the water sources of the Anyone who controls the water sources of the West Bank can, quite simply dry out the West Bank can, quite simply dry out the coastal plain in Israel. Control of the two coastal plain in Israel. Control of the two major aquifers, drilling of deep bore-holes and major aquifers, drilling of deep bore-holes and subsequent intensive pumping in Western subsequent intensive pumping in Western Samaria and in the Jenin and Tubas area are Samaria and in the Jenin and Tubas area are liable to leave the Jewish farmers of the liable to leave the Jewish farmers of the Sharon without irrigation water, and the fields Sharon without irrigation water, and the fields of the Jezriel Valley devastatedof the Jezriel Valley devastated..
Reuven Pedazur, Defence Analyst Reuven Pedazur, Defence Analyst Ha’aretzHa’aretz, 25.4.89, 25.4.89
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 232.
In time of war, the frontiers of the Palestinian state will constitute an excellent staging point for mobile forces to mount attacks on infrastructure installations vital for Israel’s existence, to impede the freedom of action of the Israeli air-force in the skies over Israel, and to cause bloodshed among the population... in areas adjacent to the frontier-line.
Israel will have problems in preserving day-to-day security, which may drive the country into war, or undermine the morale of its citizens.
It will not be short of weapons or other [military] equipment, and in a short space of time, an infrastructure for waging war will be set up in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
The establishment of such [a Palestinian] state means the inflow of combat ready Palestinian forces (more than 25,000 men under arms) into Judea and Samaria; this force, together with the local youth, will double itself in a short time.
And if the Palestinian state would be unarmed, how would it block terrorist acts perpetrated by extremists, fundamentalists or irredentists?
Shimon Peres The New Middle East, New York: H. Holt, 1993, p. 169.
Even if the Palestinians agree that their state have no army or weapons, who can guarantee that a Palestinian army would not be mustered later to encamp at the gates of Jerusalem and the approaches to the lowlands?
In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial expanse has increased…Without a border which affords expanse has increased…Without a border which affords security, a country is doomed to destruction in war.security, a country is doomed to destruction in war.
Shimon Peres, Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Tomorrow is NowNow, pp. 235,254,255, pp. 235,254,255
It is of course doubtful whether territorial expanse can provide absolute deterrence. However, the lack of minimal territorial expanse places a country in a position of an absolute lack of deterrence. This in itself constitutes almost compulsive temptation to attack Israel from all directions …
In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the most formidable weapon used by both sides was the most formidable weapon used by both sides was the canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power…canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power…
One does not have to a military expert to easily One does not have to a military expert to easily identify the critical defects of the armistice lines identify the critical defects of the armistice lines that existed until June 4, 1967. [For Israel] a that existed until June 4, 1967. [For Israel] a military defeat ... would mean the physical military defeat ... would mean the physical extinction of a large part of its population and the extinction of a large part of its population and the political elimination of the Jewish state. ...To political elimination of the Jewish state. ...To lose a single war is to lose everything...’lose a single war is to lose everything...’Yigal Allon, ‘Israel: The Case for Defensible Borders’, Yigal Allon, ‘Israel: The Case for Defensible Borders’,
Foreign AffairsForeign Affairs October, 1976, pp. 38-54. October, 1976, pp. 38-54.
... the innovation and sophistication in ... the innovation and sophistication in weaponry ... [including ]the appearance of ground weaponry ... [including ]the appearance of ground to ground missiles and supersonic fighter-to ground missiles and supersonic fighter-bombers]... not only fail to diminish the value of bombers]... not only fail to diminish the value of strategic depth and natural barriers, but in fact strategic depth and natural barriers, but in fact enhance their importance. This is even more true enhance their importance. This is even more true for Israel’s difficult geographic position ... for Israel’s difficult geographic position ...
If a Palestinian state is established, it will be armed to the teeth. Within it there will be bases of the most extreme terrorist forces, who will be equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-launched rockets, which will endanger not only random passers-by, but also every airplane and helicopter taking off in the skies of Israel and every vehicle traveling along the major traffic routes in the coastal plain.
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 255.
This is the fundamental difference between them and us, this is the terrible danger involved in the establishment of a third independent sovereign state between us and the Jordan River… A third state is liable to be an arrow-head directed at the very heart of Israel with all the force of the Arab world behind it.
Amnon Rubinstein, ‘The Pitfall of a Third State ’Ha’artez, 6.8.1976
However, the answer to this is very simple. The Arab world can exist, prosper, and develop not only if our artillery threatens Kalkilya, but even if it hits it. Israel, small and exposed, will neither be able to exist nor to prosper if its urban centers, its vulnerable airport and its narrow winding roads, are shelled.
[The proponents of Palestinian State] claim if they [the Arabs] threaten us with artillery from Kalkilya , we will threaten Kalkilya with our artillery.
If the Syrians resettle and industrialize the Golan plateau after Israel’s evacuation, the area might become a source of pollution endangering the water quality of the Sea of Galilee.
... a change in the sovereignty over this area and its return to Syrians ...[who] have not placed the peace issue in a prominent position on their national agenda ...would raise problems of the need to ensure the existing user rights which depend on the Israeli Sea of Galilee inflow ...
E. Kally with G. Fishelson , Water and Peace: Water Resources and the Arab-Israeli Peace Process, (Westport, Conn., 1993), p. 51.
D. Hillel, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, (New York, 1994), p. 289.
The water sources on the Golan [are] a critical, vital and even a fateful matter in terms of the future of the State [of Israel]. I have to say that I am not aware of any replacement for this water.
Ya’acov Tsur, Minster of Agriculture under both Rabin and Peres, Jerusalem Post, 27. 12. 1995.
If the Syrians settle hundreds of thousands of people on the Golan, without appropriate means for treating the sewage and other sources of pollution, it will mean the end of the Kinneret – beyond any shadow of a doubt.
Testimony before Knesset State Control Committee 3.1.2000.
[We need ]to create a continuous stretch of new settlements; to bolster Jerusalem and the surrounding hills, from the north, from the east, and from the south and from the west, by means of the establishment of townships, suburbs and villages - Ma’ale Edumin, Ofra, Gilo, Bet-El, Givon, and IDF camps and Nahal outposts - to ensure that the capital and its flanks are secured, and underpinned by
urban and rural settlements.
the purpose of the settlements in the Golan is to ensure that this territorial platform will no longer constitute a danger, but a barrier against a surprise attack…
These settlements will be connected to the coastal plain and Jordan Valley by new lateral axis roads; the settlements along the Jordan River are intended to establish the Jordan River as the [Israel’s] de facto security border; however it is the settlements on the western slopes of the hills of Samaria and Judea which will deliver us from the curse of Israel’s “narrow waist”;
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 48
)b (Width – No “Strategic Depth”
)a (Length – Extent of Frontiers
)c (Height – Topographical Inferiority
)d (Depth – Hydrological Dependency
Territorial ConcessionsTerritorial Concessions= =
Multi Dimensional ThreatMulti Dimensional Threat !! !!
Thank You for Your Thank You for Your AttentionAttention