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sewellsgroup.com End of April-June 2015 Quarter

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Page 1: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.com

End of April-June 2015 Quarter

Page 2: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.comPage 1

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

GAUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

SEWELLS GROUP

INDEXGlobally, confidence indices are viewed as reliable precursors to business performance. Such indices aim to capture and quantify the sentiment of various industry stakeholders – be it CXOs, suppliers, vendors or distribution partners who usually are in the middle of the action. People within the industry, typically use these indices to get a sense of stakeholder sentiment and optimize their actions in line with the sentiment. Market analysts, on the other hand, interpret theses indices as a ‘lead indicators’ of the performance of a particular industry or sector. An accurate, representative index may demonstrates a high level of correlation with actual business performance.

The automotive industry in India has been a sunrise sector contributing a significant share to country’s GDP. A healthy and growing domestic market, an active and constructive involvement from the government, growth of domestic auto manufacturers to become true global players and presence of multiple global brands in the country have made sure that this industry has come of its age. With everything else being executed at a global scale and with global vision, we believe that the time has come for Indian auto industry to have a dealer confidence index.

The important role played by auto dealers in this industry is already known. With their unique position at the market place, auto dealers are usually in touch with ground realities. And therefore such an indicator should be able position itself as useful signalling device for various stakeholders within the automotive industry eco-system.

Page 3: Sewells group adci report (India)

Ssewellsgroup.comPage 2

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is a measure of dealer sentiment about their business over next six months from the time it is being captured. It will be published on a quarterly basis.

Within the automotive industry, dealers enjoy a unique position close to the ‘action on the ground’. They are in constant touch with prospects, customers, factory staff, competition dealers, financiers and other market intermediaries. Consequently, each dealer gets exposed to a plethora of information that in turn shapes his / her sentiment about the future of markets and businesses. The Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is an attempt to capture and quantify this well informed sentiment of the auto dealers from across the length and breadth of the country, representing multiple brands and product categories. We aim to be able to represent this collective sentiment in the form of an index, whose movement over time will reliably predict the direction of the wholesale and the retail sales within the industry.

We believe publication of such an index will allow industry stakeholders to have meaningful conversations in time, which in turn will help them put together better strategies to perform at the market place.

Page 4: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.comPage 3

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

TThe Sewells Group ADCI is designed to be a quarterly index that will be computed on the basis of responses received to a structured questionnaire from the automotive dealer fraternity in Indian market. The questionnaire attempts to capture their sentiment about economy in general and their business in particular on a six month forward horizon.Sewells Group proposes to track the trend of the index which will offer an insight into the future direction of the market. We believe that it is the movement of the index which will offer greater insights than the absolute value of the index in a particular quarter.In this sixth edition of the ADCI, we attempt to capture the sentiment of the dealer fraternity at the end of Apr-Jun quarter of 2015. The findings of this survey are compared with the findings of the previous three editions to map the trend. We propose to repeat the survey at the end of each following quarter.For this edition, a questionnaire was distributed electronically (by email) to the dealer fraternity in India. A total of 184 responses received, from dealers, representing 29 brands were used to compute the index. Every effort has been made to ensure that the index is statistically meaningful and representative of dealer sentiment. However, we advise reader discretion while considering the statistical significance. At this stage, ADCI is designed only for “exploratory” and “indicative” purposes.The sentiment of the dealer fraternity at the end of Apr-Jun quarter indicates that overall, dealers carry an optimistic sentiment with a six-month time horizon. While the sentiment of commercial vehicle dealers continues to remain firmly pessimistic, passenger car and two-wheeler dealers have indicated a sharp swing in their optimism. However, positive movement of the index for all the three segments is certainly encouraging for the industry. It will be interesting to observe if the positive sentiment is sustained over the next few months as we approach the festive season.

Page 5: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.comPage 4

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

PASSENGER CARS TWO-WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS

43

7218

16

76

PASSENGER CARS PASSENGER CARSTWO-WHEELERS TWO-WHEELERSCOMMERCIAL VEHICLES COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

PASSENGER CARS TWO-WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES OVERALL

55%

42%

4%BEFORE 1975

1975 - 1989

1990 - 2004

AFTER 2005AG

E O

F D

EALE

RSH

IPS

LOC

ATI

ON

OF

RES

PO

ND

ENTS

BR

AN

DS

REP

RES

ENTE

D

29 BRANDS133 CITIES

33%

16%

50%

37%

26%

22%

42%

45%

10%

*Sub-sample size low. Reader discretion advised while considering the statistical significance.

0% 3%

42%

48%

10%

*19

7788 184

1%

5%

Page 6: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.comPage 5

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

END OF JAN-MAR 15 QUARTERINDIA

INDEX

SEWELLS GROUP

The ADCI is designed to vary between -100 and +100, where an index score of -100 represents the most pessimistic outlook, and +100 indicates the most optimistic outlook. The index is based on how dealers see the overall market and their businesses performing in next six months

The high level findings of the survey at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter are given below:

§ The overall ADCI stood at +7 indicating a mildly optimistic sentiment amongst the surveyed dealers.

§ The passenger car ADCI stands at +14, representing a mild positive outlook amongst dealers.

§ The two wheeler ADCI stands at +9, indicating a slight positive sentiment of the two wheeler dealers surveyed.

§ The commercial vehicle dealers reflects a moderately pessimistic sentiment with an ADCI of -27.

0-80-100 -40-60 -20 +80 +100+40 +60+20

PESSIMISTIC NEUTRAL MODERATELY PESSIMISTIC MODERATELY OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC

OVERALL

PASSENGERCARS

7

COMMERCIALVEHICLES -27

14

TWO-WHEELERS9

Page 7: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.comPage 6

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

END OF JAN-MAR 15 QUARTER

INDEX-TREND

SEWELLS GROUP

§ The passenger car index has shown a sharp increase from -2 at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter to +14 at the end of April-May 2015 quarter.

§ After declining consecutively for two quarter, the two wheeler index has jumped to +9 at the end of Q2 2015 from 0 at the end of Q1 2015, indicating a slight positive shift in the sentiment of the two wheeler dealers.

§ The commercial vehicle index has jumped from -44 at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter to -27 at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter indicating a positive shift in the confidence of the commercial vehicle index.

§ The overall ADCI has increased from -3 at the end of end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter to +7 indicating and upward movement in the sentiment of the surveyed dealers.

0

+80

+100

+40

+60

+20

-80

-100

-40

-60

-20

MO

DER

ATELY

PESSIM

ISTIC

MO

DER

ATELY

OPTIM

ISTIC

PESSIM

ISTIC

NEU

TR

AL

OPTIM

ISTIC

End of Q2-2015End of Q1-2015End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014

End of Q2-2015

+14

+7

+9

-27

End of Q3-2014

+8

+14

+35

-3

End of Q4-2014

+9

+7

+10

-19

SEGMENT

PASSENGER CARS

OVERALL

TWO-WHEELERS

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

OVERALLPASSENGER

CARSTWO-

WHEELERSCOMMERCIAL

VEHICLES

End of Q1-2015

-2

-3

0

-44

Page 8: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.com

Future view of manpower strength of the business

Expected performance of the market as well as the

dealership over the next six months

Expected levels of sales, inventory and profits over the

next six months

View on the current situation of sales, inventory and profits vis-à-vis same period last year

Impact of the current economic scenario on the

market, as well as the dealership business

View on the current situation of sales, inventory and profits

vis-à-vis previous quarter

06

08

02

04

Page 7

07

05

03

01Impact of the Current Economic Scenario on the Market

Expected Market Performance Over Next Six Months

Dealership Performance vis-a-vis Same Period Previous Year

Expected Dealership Performance Over Next Six Months

Impact of the Current Economic Scenario on the Dealership

Expected Dealership Performance Over Next Six Months

Dealership Performance vis-a-vis Previous Quarter

Expected Manpower Strength Over Next Six Months

page 8 page 9

page 10 page 11

page 12 page 15

page 18 page 21

ANALYSIS OF SURVEY FINDINGS

The ADCI survey delves into the following areas:

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCEINDEX

SEWELLS GROUP

§ The following pages carry details of responses received during the third edition of the survey for questions covering the above areas. Sewells Group intends to administer the ADCI survey every quarter, and intends to track the movement of question-level distribution on a quarterly basis.

§ To map the trend, the findings of this survey are compared with the findings of the previous three editions which captured the sentiments of the dealer fraternity in the last three quarters.

§ This section of analysis presents the distribution of responses across multiple questions that were asked in the survey and compared with the findings of the previous surveys.

Page 9: Sewells group adci report (India)

0%

16%

37%

47%

2%

42%

47%

9%3%

44%

38%

15%

§ About 42% of the dealers feel that the current economic scenario is encouraging for the dealership business at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter.

§ The opinion of passenger car dealers and of the two wheeler dealers has not changed much since the previous survey. 47% of the surveyed passenger car dealers and 44% of the surveyed two wheeler dealers feel that the current economic scenario is favorable for the market.

§ Very few commercial vehicle dealers feel that the current economic scenario is encouraging for the market. Only 16% of the surveyed commercial vehicle dealers feel that the current economic scenario is positive.

sewellsgroup.com

TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

1CURRENT ECONOMICSCENARIO

IMPACT OF THE

ON THE MARKET

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

Page 8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

4%

40%

43%

13%

5%

55%

32%

8%

3%

43%

42%

12%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

2%

40%

42%

16%

PASSENGER CARS

Page 10: Sewells group adci report (India)

0%

16%

47%

37%

8%

35%50%

7%6%

43%37%

14%

2§ Overall, only 43% of the surveyed dealers indicate a positive sentiment of the

effect of the current economic scenario on the dealership business.

§ About 49% of passenger car dealers believe that economic scenario has a positive impact on their dealership (down from 52% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

§ As compared to 48% of the two wheeler dealers who were of the opinion that the current economic scenario has a positive impact on the dealership business, only 43% are of the same opinion at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter.

§ Only 16% of the surveyed dealers feel that the economic scenario has a positive impact on the dealership business.

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 9

CURRENT ECONOMICSCENARIOON THE DEALERSHIP

IMPACT OF THE

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

5%

43%

39%

13%

6%

45%

37%

12%

4%

44%

39%

13%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

7%

36%

44%

13%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 11: Sewells group adci report (India)

14%

61%

24%

1%

9%

64%

25%

2% 0%

48%47%

5%

3MARKET OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCE

sewellsgroup.comPage 10

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

§ Overall, 71% of the surveyed dealers anticipate a better market performance in the next six months (up from 50% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

§ 75% of the passenger car dealers expect an improved market performance over the next six months (up from 50% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

§ Similar sentiment is seen amongst the surveyed two wheeler dealers, where 73% (up from 53%) of these dealers foresee a better market performance in the next six months.

§ Commercial vehicle dealers at the end of Q2 2015 are more optimistic as compared to the previous quarter about the market performance in the next six months (up from 22% to 48%).

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

6%

44%

42%

8%

13%

58%

26%

3%

11%

55%

27%

7%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

27%

10%

61%

2%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 12: Sewells group adci report (India)

16%

66%

13%

5% 9%

64%

25%

2% 0%

63%

26%

11%

4DEALERSHIP

OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCE

§ Overall, the dealers are more optimistic about their dealership performance than they were in the previous quarter (up from 56% to 76% at the end of Apr-May 2015).

§ Passenger car dealers have shown an increase in optimism about the dealership performance in the next six months. (up from 55% at the end of Q1 2015 to 82% at the end of Q2 2015).

§ Two wheeler dealers are also positive about their performance in the next six months with 73% expecting to perform better as against, the 58% who were of the same opinion last quarter.

§ Commercial vehicle dealers have shown a marked improvement in their sentiment. 63% of these dealers feel that their dealership performance is going to be better in the next six months (up from 33% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

sewellsgroup.comPage 11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

6%

50%

37%

7%

14%

58%

23%

5%

12%

58%

23%

7%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

20%

11%

65%

4%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 13: Sewells group adci report (India)

21%

23%40%

16% 7%

43%41%

9% 11%

21%

47%

21%

sewellsgroup.comPage 12

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUSSALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ 54% of the surveyed dealers feel that their sales at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 has decreased as compared to the same period previous year.

§ 44% of passenger car dealers feel that their sales have reduced as compared to the same period previous quarter.

§ Half of the two wheeler dealers surveyed feel that their sales as compared to the same period previous year have gone up.

§ About 63% of the commercial vehicle dealers surveyed feel that their sales as compared to the same period previous year has gone up (up from 33% at the end of Jan-Feb 2015).

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

15%

34%

34%

17%

17%

35%

34%

14%

18%

31%

26%

25%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

41%

13%

33%

13%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 14: Sewells group adci report (India)

23%

42%

31%

4%

28%

46%

23%

3% 16%

37%31%

16%

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUS

§ According to the surveyed dealers, their inventory levels vis-à-vis previous year have gone up as compared to the Jan-Mar 2015 quarter. (68% at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter as against 28% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

§ Inventory levels vis-à-vis same period previous year according to the surveyed two wheeler dealers and commercial vehicle dealers have gone up. 65% of two wheeler dealers and 53% of commercial vehicle dealers feel that their inventory levels are higher at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter as compared to Apr-June 2014 quarter.

§ 74% of the passenger car dealers feel that their inventory levels vis-à-vis same period previous year have gone up (up from 53% who were of the same opinion at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

sewellsgroup.comPage 13

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

9%

19%

38%

34%

30%

39%

26%

5%

25%

38%

28%

9%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

27%

25%

43%

5%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 15: Sewells group adci report (India)

16%

23%

38%

23%

5%

39%

36%

20%5%

10%

32%53%

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUSSALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ Overall, the opinion about profits vis-à-vis same period previous year hasn't changed much over the last one quarter. 38% of dealers surveyed feel that their profits are higher as compared to the previous year (down from 40% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

§ The above sentiments are reflected in passenger car dealers opinion. Only 39% of passenger car dealers feel that their profits are higher than that in the same period previous year.).

§ 44% of two wheeler dealers feel that their profits are higher as compared to previous year (up from 39% as expressed at the end of Jan-Mar 205 quarter

§ Commercial vehicle dealer sentiment is slightly better as compared to the previous quarter. 15% of commercial vehicle dealers feel that their profits are more than the same period previous quarter, as compared to only 11% who were of the same opinion in the previous survey.

sewellsgroup.comPage 14

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

13%

27%

31%

29%

12%

27%

32%

29%

16%

26%

27%

31%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

37%

9%

29%

25%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 16: Sewells group adci report (India)

16%

24%

40%

20%8%

49%

32%

11% 16%

21%

31%

32%

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ Only 48% of the surveyed dealers feel that their sales are higher as compared to previous quarter. (up from 42% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

§ Majority of the dealers (58%) feel that their sales in the Jan-Mar 2015 quarter were lower than Oct-Dec 2014 quarter.

§ More and more number of passenger car dealers are feeling a dip in their sales since Q1 2015. At the end of Apr-Jun 2015 60% of the surveyed passenger car dealers feel that their sales are lower as compared to previous quarter (up from 57% who were of the same opinion at the end of Q1 2015).

§ The sentiment amongst the two wheeler dealers and the commercial vehicle dealers about sales at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter is much better as compared to that at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter. (up from 45% to 57% for two wheeler dealers and up from 0% to 37% for the commercial vehicle dealers).

sewellsgroup.comPage 15

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

15%

27%

38%

20%

19%

44%

28%

9%

17%

36%

27%

20%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

35%

12%

36%

17%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 17: Sewells group adci report (India)

26%

29%

39%

18%

19%

50%

22%

9%21%

32%26%

21%

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 16

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ Dealers have expressed some inventory correction at the end of Apr-Jun 2015. 61% of the surveyed dealers feel that their inventory levels are higher as compared to the previous quarter.

§ Both two wheeler dealers and commercial vehicle dealers have reported some inventory correction in Apr-Jun 2015 quarter as compared to the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter (down from 77% to 69% for two wheeler dealers and down from 56% to 53% for the commercial vehicle dealers).

§ 55% of passenger car dealers surveyed feel that their inventory levels are higher as compared to previous quarter. This figure is higher than that at the end of Q1 2015, where 50% of the two wheeler dealers were of the same opinion.

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

26%

41%

23%

10%

28%

41%

27%

4%

23%

44%

27%

6%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

30%

22%

39%

9%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 18: Sewells group adci report (India)

14%

21%

35%

30%

5%

42%

39%

14% 16%

10%

32%

42%

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ Overall, the sentiment amongst the dealers at the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter regarding their profits is not positive and similar to that at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter.

§ A similar sentiment is expressed across all the three segments individually.

§ Only 47% of two wheeler dealers (up from 42%) feel that their profits are higher as compared to previous quarter.

§ At the end of Apr-Jun 2015 quarter, about 65% of passenger car dealers (up from 42%) and 74% of commercial vehicle dealers (down from 100%) feel that their profits have not been higher than that in the previous quarter.

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

13%

27%

34%

26%

14%

35%

28%

23%

15%

31%

29%

25%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

36%

10%

30%

24%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 19: Sewells group adci report (India)

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ An significant increase in the sentiment about expected sales in the next six months of dealers as compared to that at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter is seen in this survey (up from 58% to 79%).

§ This sentiment is expressed across all the three segments.

§ 78% of the two wheeler dealers, 86% of the passenger car dealers and 58% of the commercial vehicle dealers anticipate an increase in sales by December 2015 (up from 58%, 63% and 33% respectively as expressed at the end of previous quarter).

30%

56%

10%4%

22%

56%

20%2% 5%

53%

31%

11%

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 18

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

17%

41%

30%

12%

26%

48%

23%

3%

22%

38%

32%

8%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

17%

23%

56%

4%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 20: Sewells group adci report (India)

32%

51%

16%

1%

28%

47%

20%

5% 11%

42%

42%

5%

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ Overall, the dealers expect the inventories to continue to rise over the next six months, with 76% dealers expecting their inventory levels to be higher in the next six months, as compared to 70% dealers who were of similar opinion at the end of the previous quarter.

§ 83% of the passenger car dealers expect their inventory levels to rise in the next six months (up from 62% as expressed in the survey at the end of previous quarter).

§ Two wheeler dealers anticipate a slight correction in inventory ; 75% expecting to carry higher inventories in the next six months as compared to 76% of similar opinion in the previous survey.

§ Commercial dealer sentiments about increase inventory in the next six months has changed slightly (moved to 53% from 44% at the end of Jan-Mar 2015 quarter).

sewellsgroup.comPage 19

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

26%

44%

22%

8%

26%

44%

28%

2%

22%

49%

26%

3%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

21%

28%

48%

3%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 21: Sewells group adci report (India)

22%

51%

18%

9%21%

45%

25%

9% 5%

37%

37%

21%

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

§ The overall sentiment about anticipated profits in the next six months is improved. 67% of the surveyed dealers feel that their business is going to be profitable in the next six months.

§ This increase in positive sentiment is seen across all the three segments.

§ 73% of passenger car dealers expect higher profits in the next six months as compared to 60% dealers who were Jan-Mar 2015 quarter.

§ Two wheeler dealers who were pessimistic at the end of the previous quarter are hopeful of a profitable business in the next six months (up from 47% at the end of Q1 2015 to 66% at the end of Q2 2015).

§ Sentiment of the commercial vehicle dealers seems to be improving slightly though majority of these dealers feel that their profits are going to be lower in the next six months. At the end of Q2 2015, 58% of these dealers anticipate lower profits in the next six months as against 67% who were of the same opinion at the end of Q1 2015.

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

14%

36%

30%

20%

17%

40%

32%

11%

19%

35%

31%

15%

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

23%

20%

47%

10%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 22: Sewells group adci report (India)

26%

53%

20%

1%

17%

55%

26%

2% 5%

47%37%

11%

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

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8MANPOWER

MONTHS

EXPECTED

STRENGTHOVER NEXT SIX

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

§ 73% of the surveyed dealers anticipate increase in their manpower strength in the next six months as against 69% who were of the same opinion at the end of the previous quarter.

§ All the three segments anticipate an increase in the manpower strength in the next six months. 72% of two wheeler dealers, 79% passenger car dealers and 52% commercial vehicle dealers anticipate a rise in their manpower strength (up from 68%, 74% and 33% as expressed in the survey conducted at the end of previous quarter).

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

END OF Q2-2015

END OF Q1-2015

END OF Q3-2014

END OF Q4-2014

21%

48%

27%

4%

23%

48%

27%

2%

22%

59%

17%

2%

24%

20%

53%

3%

TWO WHEELERSPASSENGER CARS

Page 23: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.comPage 22

SSEWELLSGROUP

ABOUT

Sewells Group is a global consulting and outsourcing firm which specializes in the automotive retail industry. Our very reason for being in the business is to improve the performance of individuals and organizations in the automotive retail industry. We operate across the Asia-Pacific, Africa and Middle East regions.

Our in-depth subject matter expertise in this area and our deep engagements with many leading automotive brands make us a leader in our business. Our Integrated Dealer Performance Management Model has delivered exceptional success to leading OEMs across the world. Through our proven business management model, demonstrated competence solutions and process efficacy initiatives, we contribute meaningfully to our clients’ businesses.

For more information, visit www.sewellsgroup.com

Sewells Group Contacts:

JAYESH JAGASIAManaging Partner & CEO-Sewells Group IndiaE: [email protected]: +91 22 67354915, M: +91 9819765234

POOJA PEWEKARGroup Marketing Manager-Sewells GroupE:[email protected]: +91 22 67354914

Page 24: Sewells group adci report (India)

sewellsgroup.comPage 23

DISCLAIMER

§ The contents of this report represent the opinion of survey respondents, and not that of Sewells Group, Sewells Group India, any of their subsidiary companies, or employees thereof.

§ The contents of this report and analysis of responses received in response to the quarterly Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) survey are to be viewed as broad trends being observed, and not as definite commentary on the state of economy, state of business or policy framework of any automotive manufacturer and/or franchised automotive dealer group.

§ The contents of this report should not be viewed as commentary on the prospects of a particular manufacturer or brand as it is only intended to summarize the perceptions and opinions of respondents.

§ The contents of the report and analysis of responses should not be viewed in isolation, but in conjunction with the number of responses considered in the computation of the index and subsequent analysis.

§ ADCI methodology and this survey may be limited by significance of sample size or other statistical parameters. We advise reader discretion on matters such as these.

§ Sewells Group does not take the responsibility of or does not indemnify any user of the study against the impact of the decisions made taking into accounts the findings of this study.