sewells group adci report (india) - end of oct-dec 2014 quarter

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sewellsgroup.com End of October‐December 2014 Quarter

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Page 1: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.com

End of October‐December 2014 Quarter

Page 2: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.comPage 1

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

GAUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

SEWELLS GROUP

INDEXGlobally, confidence indices are viewed as reliable precursors to business performance. Such indices aim to capture and quantify the sentiment of various industry stakeholders – be it CXOs, suppliers, vendors or distribution partners who usually are in the middle of the action. People within the industry, typically use these indices to get a sense of stakeholder sentiment and optimize their actions in line with the sentiment. Market analysts, on the other hand, interpret theses indices as a ‘lead indicators’ of the performance of a particular industry or sector. An accurate, representative index may demonstrates a high level of correlation with actual business performance.

The automotive industry in India has been a sunrise sector contributing a significant share to country’s GDP. A healthy and growing domestic market, an active and constructive involvement from the government, growth of domestic auto manufacturers to become true global players and presence of multiple global brands in the country have made sure that this industry has come of its age. With everything else being executed at a global scale and with global vision, we believe that the time has come for Indian auto industry to have a dealer confidence index.

The important role played by auto dealers in this industry is already known. With their unique position at the market place, auto dealers are usually in touch with ground realities. And therefore such an indicator should be able position itself as useful signalling device for various stakeholders within the automotive industry eco‐system.

Page 3: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

Ssewellsgroup.comPage 2

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is a measure of dealer sentiment about their business over next six months from the time it is being captured. It will be published on a quarterly basis.

Within the automotive industry, dealers enjoy a unique position close to the ‘action on the ground’. They are in constant touch with prospects, customers, factory staff, competition dealers, financiers and other market intermediaries. Consequently, each dealer gets exposed to a plethora of information that in turn shapes his / her sentiment about the future of markets and businesses. The Sewells Group Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) is an attempt to capture and quantify this well informed sentiment of the auto dealers from across the length and breadth of the country, representing multiple brands and product categories. We aim to be able to represent this collective sentiment in the form of an index, whose movement over time will reliably predict the direction of the wholesale and the retail sales within the industry.

We believe publication of such an index will allow industry stakeholders to have meaningful conversations in time, which in turn will help them put together better strategies to perform at the market place.

Page 4: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.comPage 3

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

TThe Sewells Group ADCI is designed to be a quarterly index that will be computed on the basis of responses received to a structured questionnaire from the automotive dealer fraternity in Indian market. The questionnaire attempts to capture their sentiment about economy in general and their business in particular on a six month forward horizon.Sewells Group proposes to track the trend of the index which will offer an insight into the future direction of the market. We believe that it is the movement of the index which will offer greater insights than the absolute value of the index in a particular quarter.In this fourth edition of the ADCI, we attempt to capture the sentiment of the dealer fraternity at the end of Oct‐Dec quarter of 2014. The findings of this survey are compared with the findings of the previous three editions to map the trend. We propose to repeat the survey at the end of each following quarter.For this edition, a questionnaire was distributed electronically (by email) to the dealer fraternity in India. A total of 172 responses received, from dealers, representing 31 brands were used to compute the index. Every effort has been made to ensure that the index is statistically meaningful and representative of dealer sentiment. However, we advise reader discretion while considering the statistical significance. At this stage, ADCI is designed only for “exploratory” and “indicative” purposes.The fourth edition of the survey represents an interesting point, when the government has started taking major policy decisions. The formation of a majority Government at the Centre resulted in a spike in optimism across the automotive retail trade earlier in the year, and we are now seeing some of this enthusiasm get tempered by market realities. Automotive dealers‐an important part of country's business fraternity, expect that, an improved economic environment & government policies will translate into improved performance for them.

Page 5: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.comPage 4

About Sewells GroupAutomotive Dealer ConfidenceIndex

ADCI Survey Methodology Summary of Respondents

PASSENGER CARS TWO‐WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

TOTAL NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS

65

4416

14

98

PASSENGER CARS PASSENGER CARSTWO‐WHEELERS TWO‐WHEELERSCOMMERCIAL VEHICLES COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

PASSENGER CARS TWO‐WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES OVERALL

70%

28%

2% BEFORE 1975

1975 ‐ 1990

1990 ‐ 2005

AFTER 2005AG

E O

F D

EALE

RSH

IPS

LOC

ATI

ON

OF

RES

PO

ND

ENTS

BR

AN

DS

REP

RES

ENTE

D

31 BRANDS125 CITIES

9%

60%31% 10353

*16

172

32%

21%

47%

25%

19%

47%

13%

54%

9%

35%

2%

*Sub‐sample size low. Reader discretion advised while considering the statistical significance.

Page 6: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.comPage 5

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

END OF OCT-DEC 14 QUARTERINDIA

INDEX

SEWELLS GROUP

The ADCI is designed to vary between ‐100 and +100, where an index score of ‐100 represents the most pessimistic outlook, and +100 indicates the most optimistic outlook. The index is based on how dealers see the overall market and their businesses performing in next six months

The high level findings of the second edition of the survey are given below:

• The overall ADCI stood at +7 indicating a mildly optimistic sentiment amongst the dealers surveyed.

• The passenger car ADCI stands at +9, representing a mildly optimistic sentiment amongst dealers.

• The commercial vehicle ADCI stands at ‐19, indicating a pessimistic outlook of the commercial vehicle dealers.

• The two wheeler dealers are not as optimistic as they were in the previous quarter. The index for the two wheeler dealers is +10, indicating a slight optimistic sentiment.

0-80-100 -40-60 -20 +80 +100+40 +60+20

PESSIMISTIC NEUTRAL MODERATELY PESSIMISTIC MODERATELY OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC

OVERALL

PASSENGERCARS

COMMERCIALVEHICLES

TWO-WHEELERS

7

10

-19

9

Page 7: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.comPage 6

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCE

END OF OCT-DEC 14 QUARTER

INDEX-TREND

SEWELLS GROUP

Passenger car dealers continued to remain optimistic about business prospects in spite of a duller than expected festive period. The index for passenger cars segment stood at +9 at the end of Oct‐Dec quarter, as compared to +8 at the end of Jul‐ Sep quarter.

The index for two‐wheeler dealers saw a significant dip in the Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter when compared with the Jul‐Sep quarter of 2014. The index moved from +35 to +10 at the end of Oct‐Dec quarter of 2014, indicating a drop in optimism levels of the two‐wheeler dealers.

Commercial vehicle dealers, who displayed some signs of revival in the previous survey, seem to continue remaining guarded about business prospects over the next six months. The index stood at ‐19 at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter.

Overall, the ADCI at the end of Oct‐Dec quarter stands at +7 indicating an optimistic sentiment. However, the fact that it has dropped from +14 at the end of the previous quarter points to a slight tempering of dealer sentiment.

0

+80

+100

+40

+60

+20

-80

-100

-40

-60

-20

MO

DER

ATELY

PESSIM

ISTIC

MO

DER

ATELY

OPTIM

ISTIC

PESSIM

ISTIC

NEU

TR

AL

OPTIM

ISTIC

End of Q1-2014 End of Q2-2014 End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014

End of Q1-2014 End of Q2-2014 End of Q3-2014 End of Q4-2014

-40 -3 +8 +9

-20 0 +14 +7

+13

-32

+18 +35 +10

-38 -3 -19

SEGMENT

PASSENGER CARS

OVERALL

TWO-WHEELERS

COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

OVERALLPASSENGER

CARSTWO-

WHEELERSCOMMERCIAL

VEHICLES

Page 8: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.com

Future view of manpower strength of the business

Expected performance of the market as well as the

dealership over the next six months

Expected levels of sales, inventory and profits over the

next six months

View on the current situation of sales, inventory and profits vis‐à‐vis same period last year

Impact of the current economic scenario on the

market, as well as the dealership business

View on the current situation of sales, inventory and profits

vis‐à‐vis previous quarter

06

08

02

04

Page 7

07

05

03

01Impact of the Current Economic Scenario on the Market

Expected Market Performance Over Next Six Months

Dealership Performance vis‐a‐vis Same Period Previous Year

Expected Dealership Performance Over Next Six Months

Impact of the Current Economic Scenario on the Dealership

Expected Dealership Performance Over Next Six Months

Dealership Performance vis‐a‐vis Previous Quarter

Expected Manpower Strength Over Next Six Months

page 8 page 9

page 10 page 11

page 12 page 15

page 18 page 21

ANALYSIS OF SURVEY FINDINGS

The ADCI survey delves into the following areas:

AUTOMOTIVEDEALERCONFIDENCEINDEX

SEWELLS GROUP

The following pages carry details of responses received during the third edition of the survey for questions covering the above areas. Sewells Group intends to administer the ADCI survey every quarter, and intends to track the movement of question‐level distribution on a quarterly basis.

To map the trend, the findings of this survey are compared with the findings of the previous three editions which captured the sentiments of the dealer fraternity in the first three quarters of 2014.

This section of analysis presents the distribution of responses across multiple questions that were asked in the survey and compared with the findings of the previous surveys.

Page 9: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

Dealers do not seem to be as satisfied with the current economic scenario as they were at the end of previous quarter. About 64% of the dealers feel that the current economic conditions are not beneficial to the market (up from 40% at the end of the Jul‐Sep quarter).

45% of the passenger car dealers feel that the economic scenario has a positive impact on the market as compared to the 58% who were of the same opinion at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

As against the 78% two wheeler dealers who felt that the economic scenario at the end of Jul‐Se 2014 quarter had a positive impact on the market, only 45% feel so at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter.

38% of the commercial vehicle dealers consider that the current economic scenario is impacting the market positively (down from 45% at the end of previous quarter.

sewellsgroup.com

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

1CURRENT ECONOMICSCENARIO

IMPACT OF THE

ON THE MARKET 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

4%

11%

58%

27%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

7%

34%

41%

18%

5%

55%

32%

8%

3%

43%

42%

12%

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

Page 8

3%

44%

41%

13% 4%

43%43%

9%

0%

38%

44%

19%

Page 10: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

• About 48% of the dealers feel that the current economic scenario is encouraging for the dealership business at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter.

• Passenger car dealers (54%) continue to feel that the economic scenario is not supportive to their dealership business.

• 57% of the two wheeler dealers believe that the economic scenario has a positive impact on their business as against 69% who were of the same opinion at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

• Commercial vehicle dealers are still as pessismistic as in the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter. 31% of these feel positive that the current economic scenario is encouraging.

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

sewellsgroup.comPage 9

2CURRENT ECONOMICSCENARIOON THE DEALERSHIP

IMPACT OF THE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

3%

18%

53%

26%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

5%

29%

46%

20%

6%

45%

37%

12%

4%

44%

39%

13%

6%

41%

41%

13%

2%

55%34%

9%

0%

31%

44%

25%

Page 11: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

About 66% of dealers expect the market performance to improve in the next six months.

Passenger car dealer sentiment about the expected market performance continues to remain same as in the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter 69% of the passenger car dealers anticipate a positive market performance in the next six months.

Sentiments of both the two wheeler and commercial vehicle dealers regarding the expected market performance has fallen as compared to the results of the previous quarter. 66% of two wheeler dealers (down from 78%) and 50% of commercial vehicle dealers (down from 60%) feel that the market is going to be positive in the next six months.

3MARKET OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCE

sewellsgroup.comPage 10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

‐40

38%

46%

5%

11%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

7%

60%

26%

7%

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

12%

58%

26%

3%

11%

55%

27%

7%

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

11%

58%

25%

6% 15%

51%

28%

6%

0%

50%

31%

19%

Page 12: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

Overall, the dealers continue to remain as optimistic as they were in the previous quarter (up from 70% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter to 71% at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter).

On one hand where the excitement of the passenger car dealers about the expected dealership performance has gone up from 70% in quarter ending September 2014 to 76% in quarter ending December 2014, on the other hand there is a slight dip in this same anticipation of the two wheeler dealers (down from 8% at the end of Jul‐Sep quarter to 68% at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter).

A dip in the sentiment is seen in the commercial vehicle dealers. 44% commercial vehicle dealers surveyed expect that their dealership performance will be better in the next six months as against 60% of the surveyed dealers who were of thesame opinion at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

9%

51%

32%

8%

4DEALERSHIP

OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCE

OVERALL

11%

59%

23%

7%

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

14%

58%

23%

5%

13%

58%

23%

7%

EXCITING POSITIVE NOT SO POSITIVE WORRISOME

sewellsgroup.comPage 11

15%

61%

18%

6% 13%

55%

25%

8%

0%

44%

44%

13%

Page 13: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

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5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUSSALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

29%

24%

27%

20%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

20%

23%

37%

20%

59% of passenger car dealers (down from 64% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter) feel that their inventory levels have gone up vis‐a‐vis same period previous year.

38% of commercial vehicle dealers surveyed (down from 68% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter) feel that their inventory levels are higher than that in the same period previous year.

80% of the two wheeler dealers at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter feel that their inventory levels have gone upvis‐a‐vis same period previous year.

17%

35%

34%

14%

18%

31%

26%

25%

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

19%

29%25%

26% 23%

36%

26%

15%

0%

25%

25%

50%

Page 14: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUS0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

8%

21%

36%

35%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

31%

34%

26%

9%

Inventory levels for the dealers is still higher as compared to the same period previous year (down from 69% in the Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter to 63% in Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter).

Passenger car dealers seems to have managed their inventory levels well. 59% (down from 64%) feel that their inventory levels have gone up when compared to the Oct‐Dec 2013 quarter.

Only 38% This is also true in the case of the commercial vehicle dealers. (down from 68%) of these surveyed dealers feel that their inventory levels are higher than that in the same period previous year. This could be because of their cautious attitude regarding their expected dealership business in the next six months.

However, the two wheeler dealers seem to have struggled this quarter with inventory levels. 80% of dealers feel that their inventory levels have gone up when compared with the previous year. One of the reason could be the anticipated sales during this quarter.

30%

39%

26%

5%

25%

38%

27%

9%

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

20%

39%

31%

10%

42%

38%

15%6%

0%

38%

44%

19%

Page 15: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

5PERFORMANCE

YEAR

DEALERSHIP

VIS-À-VIS SAME PERIOD

PREVIOUSSALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

43%

24%

21%

12%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

13%

20%

26%

41%

42% of dealers feel that their profits have increased as compared to same period last year.

Two wheeler sentiment over the last quarter has improved slightly regarding their dealership profits vis‐a‐vis same period previous year. 51% of commercial vehicle dealers feel that their profits are more than the same period previous quarter, as compared to only 48% who were of the same opinion in the previous survey.

Commercial vehicle dealers feel that their profits have gone down vis‐a‐vis same period last year. Majority (56%) of the surveyed dealers feel that their profits are definitely lower as compared to same period previous year.

12%

27%

32%

29%

16%

26%

27%

31%

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

15%

27%

25%

33%25%

26%30%

19%

0%

19%

25%56%

Page 16: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

21%

36%

30%

13%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

As compared to 63% of the dealers in the previous survey, 53% of the surveyed dealers feel that their sales figures have gone up in this quarter.

Passenger car dealers who had reported some improvement in the sales figures at the end of Jul‐Sep quarter, have again reported lower sales figures at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter. 58% feel that it is higher at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 than at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014.

53% of two wheeler dealers (down from 76%) feel that their revenue at the end of Q4 of 2014 is higher than that at the end of Q3 of 2014.

Commercial vehicle dealers who showed an improving sales condition over the last six months, have again reported a reduction in sales. 75% of these dealers feel that their sales at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter is lower than that at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

17%

28%

40%

15%

19%

44%

28%

9%

17%

36%

27%

20%

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

16%

42%

26%

17%25%

28%28%

19%

0%

25%

25%

50%

Page 17: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

sewellsgroup.comPage 16

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

6%

27%

37%

30%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

18%

46%

32%

4%

Passenger car dealer seem to have corrected their inventory levels slightly, with 61% of dealers who feel that their inventory levels have gone up at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter as compared to the 68% with similar opinion at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

89% of the two wheeler dealers feel that their inventory levels are higher than that in the end of previous quarter, as compared to 80% who expressed a similar sentiment in the previous survey.

Inventory levels of 44% of the surveyed commercial vehicle dealers have gone up as compared to that at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

28%

41%

27%

4%

24%

44%

27%

6%

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

16%

45%

34%

6%

47%

42%

9%

2% 0%

44%

38%

19%

Page 18: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

6PERFORMANCE

QUARTER

VIS-À-VIS

PREVIOUS

DEALERSHIP

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

36%

31%

22%

11%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

8%

32%

30%

30%

Overall 46% of dealers reported higher profits at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter as compared to 49% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

Profits of 50% of the surveyed passenger car dealers at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter have gone up as compared to the that in the end of previous quarter.

Profits of both two wheeler and commercial vehicle dealers surveyed decreased in this quarter as compared to previous quarter. However, the commercial vehicle dealers seem to be in worst condition, where 87% of these dealers have expressed decrease in profit at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter.

14%

35%

28%

23%

15%

31%

30%

25%

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

13%

37%28%

22% 23%

25%32%

21%

0%

13%

31%56%

Page 19: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

7%

31%

46%

16%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

21%

54%

19%

6%

Though maximum dealers anticipate higher sales in the next six months, this number is slightly lesser than the sentiment expressed in the previous survey at the end last quarter. This can be attributed to the dip in the sentiment of dealers across all three segments.

60% of passenger car dealers and 64% of two wheeler dealers at the end of the Oct‐Dec quarter anticipate higher sales in the next six months as compared to the 72% and 79% at the end of previous quarter respectively.

Commercial vehicle dealers who were anticipating higher sales in the Oct’14 to Mar’15 period, are not optimistic at the end of the Oct‐Dec quarter. Majority of these dealers expect their sales figures to reduce in the next six months.

26%

48%

23%

3%

22%

38%

33%

8%

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

21%

39%

32%

8%26%

38%

28%

8% 6%

38%

50%

6%

Page 20: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

3%

25%

55%

17%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

19%

53%

26%

2%

Overall 71% of the dealers surveyed expect their inventory levels to be higher in the next six months, as compared to 70% of the surveyed dealer in the last survey.

There has been no change in the sentiment of the passenger car dealers regarding the inventory levels over the next six months. 69% of these dealers expect their inventory levels to increase in the next six months.

As compared the previous quarter, higher number of dealers expect the inventory levels to be higher in the coming months (up from 78% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter to 81% at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter).

Commercial dealer sentiments about increase inventory in the next six months has also not changed much (moved to 56% from 58% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

26%

44%

28%

2%

22%

49%

25%

3%

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

21%

48%

28%

3%

0%

56%31%

13%

30%

51%

17%

2%

Page 21: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

7DEALERSHIP

MONTHS

EXPECTED

PERFORMANCEOVER NEXT SIX

SALES INVENTORY PROFITS 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

20%

30%

38%

12%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

13%

46%

25%

16%

Overall, as compared to the previous quarter, lesser number of dealers expect their profits to be higher in the next six months (down from 57% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter to 54% at the end of Oct‐Dec 2014 quarter.)

46% of the passenger car dealers expect their profits to be higher in the first six months of 2015 as compared to 59% of the dealers surveyed in the previous quarter who were of the same opinion regarding Oct’14 to Mar’15 period.

55% of the two wheeler dealers expect their profits to be higher in the next six months.

Commercial vehicle dealers who anticipated some improvement last quarter about their profits in Oct’14 to Mar’15 period, have again anticipated lesser profits in the next six months.

17%

40%

32%

11%

19%

35%

31%

15%

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DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

19%

37%

29%

15%23%

32%

32%

13%

0%

38%

38%

25%

Page 22: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

PASSENGER CARS TWO WHEELERS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

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8MANPOWER

MONTHS

EXPECTED

STRENGTHOVER NEXT SIX

DEFINITELY HIGHER HIGHER OR SAME SAME OR LOWER DEFINITELY LOWER

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

% O

F R

ESP

ON

DEN

TS

6%

26%

47%

21%

OVERALL

END OF Q1‐2014

END OF Q2‐2014

END OF Q3‐2014

END OF Q4‐2014

19%

54%

25%

2%

Overall 81% of dealers anticipate an increase in their manpower strength in the next six months.

Passenger car dealers seem to be the most bullish of all the three categories. 82% of these dealers expect their manpower strength to be higher as compared to 66% at the end of Jul‐Sep 2014 quarter.

Two wheeler dealers who were the most optimistic about their dealership manpower strength in the Oct’14 to Mar’15 period continue to remain so 89% of the surveyed two‐wheeler dealers expect their manpower strength to be higher in the next six months.

44% of the surveyed commercial vehicle dealers anticipate an increase in their manpower strength in the next six months.

23%

48%

27%

2%

22%

59%

17%

2%

25%

57%

15%3%

21%

68%

11%

0%

6%

38%

50%

6%

Page 23: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

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SSEWELLSGROUP

ABOUT

Sewells Group is a global consulting and outsourcing firm which specializes in the automotive retail industry. Our very reason for being in the business is to improve the performance of individuals and organizations in the automotive retail industry. We operate across the Asia‐Pacific, Africa and Middle East regions.

Our in‐depth subject matter expertise in this area and our deep engagements with many leading automotive brands make us a leader in our business. Our Integrated Dealer Performance Management Model has delivered exceptional success to leading OEMs across the world. Through our proven business management model, demonstrated competence solutions and process efficacy initiatives, we contribute meaningfully to our clients’ businesses.

For more information, visit www.sewellsgroup.com

Sewells Group Contacts:

JAYESH JAGASIAManaging Partner & CEO‐Sewells Group IndiaE: [email protected]: +91 22 67354915, M: +91 9819765234

POOJA PEWEKARGroup Marketing Manager‐Sewells GroupE:[email protected]: +91 22 67354914

Page 24: Sewells Group ADCI Report (India) - End of Oct-Dec 2014 Quarter

sewellsgroup.comPage 23

DISCLAIMER

The contents of this report represent the opinion of survey respondents, and not that of Sewells Group, Sewells Group India, any of their subsidiary companies, or employees thereof.

The contents of this report and analysis of responses received in response to the quarterly Automotive Dealer Confidence Index (ADCI) survey are to be viewed as broad trends being observed, and not as definite commentary on the state of economy, state of business or policy framework of any automotive manufacturer and/or franchised automotive dealer group.

The contents of this report should not be viewed as commentary on the prospects of a particular manufacturer or brand as it is only intended to summarize the perceptions and opinions of respondents.

The contents of the report and analysis of responses should not be viewed in isolation, but in conjunction with the number of responses considered in the computation of the index and subsequent analysis.

ADCI methodology and this survey may be limited by significance of sample size or other statistical parameters. We advise reader discretion on matters such as these.

Sewells Group does not take the responsibility of or does not indemnify any user of the study against the impact of the decisions made taking into accounts the findings of this study.