sergio m. vicente serranohistoricdroughts.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/03 sergio... ·...
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Drought processes in Spain: from historical droughts to current drought management in a
warming scenario
Sergio M. Vicente Serrano
Department of Geoenvironmental Processes and Global Change
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología(Pyrenean Institute of Ecology)
Spanish National Research Council
Rainfed crops (35% of total surface)17.7 million ha
Pasture lands (9.3 million ha)
Forest fires
2005: 65 Mill €2012: 42 Mill €
Hydropower production
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
No
rma
lize
d H
yd
rop
ow
er
pro
du
ctio
n
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Hyd
rop
ow
er
pro
du
ctio
n
(Gw
h)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Insta
lled
ca
pa
city (
Mw
)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Hydro. Prod.
Installed capacity
Hydro. Prod.
Urban supply
1995: 3500 Million € in economic losses
1995: 3.5 Million persons affected
Historic evaluation of droughts in Spain
Historic evaluation of droughts in Spain
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SP
I
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., (2013): In Adverse Weather in Spain (Carlos García-Legaz Martínez y Francisco Valero Rodríguez Eds.).
100 years of instrumental data
C. 1
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SP
I
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
C. 2
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SP
I
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
C. 3
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SP
I
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
C. 4
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SP
I
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
C. 5
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SP
I
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
C. 6
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SP
I
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., (2013) In Adverse Weather in Spain (Carlos García-Legaz Martínez y Francisco Valero Rodríguez Eds.).
Strong spatial diversity
Spanish system of agrarian insurances
Responses to drought events
It is a system that involves the Spanish
government and private companies.
It guarantees a minimum of payment to
the farmers according to the historical
time series of crop productions and the
observed regional yields.
Responses to drought events
Pasture loss insurance based on remote sensing data
Water management systems and drought
plans in the different river basin
authorities
Responses to drought events
Water management system drought plans
in the different river basin authorities
Responses to drought events
National drought observatory Synthetic Hydrological drought
conditions by hydrological units
Drought plans and protocols
Responses to drought events
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., (2013) In Adverse Weather in Spain (Carlos García-Legaz Martínez y Francisco Valero Rodríguez Eds.).
Drought trends
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., López-Moreno, J.I., Morán-Tejeda, E., Zabalza, J., Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945-2005). Journal of Hydrology 414-415: 463-475.
Objective metrics
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Morán-Tejeda, E., Vicente-Serrano, S.M. and López-Moreno, J.I., Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns. Hydrology and Earth System Science 17: 119-134.
Objective metrics
Carnicer et al., (2011): PNAS (2011), 108: 1474
Pinus sylvestris
Pinus halepensis
Year
Basal are
ain
cre
ment(c
m2)
Abies alba
Camarero et al., (2014): Journal of Ecology
Objective metrics
Radiative
Aerodynamic
The atmospheric evaporative demand (AED)
Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Calbó, J., Wild, M. 2013 Global and diffuse solar radiation in Spain: Building a homogeneous dataset and assessing their trends Global and Planetary Change 100, pp. 343-352
Radiative component
Annual
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mean
tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
0.30ºC/decade, p < 0.001
Winter
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mean
tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Summer
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mean
tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Spring
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mean
tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Autumn
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mean
tem
pera
ture
(ºC
)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
0.19ºC/decade, p = 0.035 0.37ºC/decade, p < 0.001
0.43ºC/decade, p < 0.001 0.21ºC/decade, p = 0.031
Brunet, M., 2007 Temporal and spatial temperature variability and change over Spain during 1850-2005 Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres 112 (12), D12117
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., et al (2014): Temporal evolution of surface humidity in Spain: recent trends and possible physical mechanisms. Climate Dynamics. 42:2655–2674
Aerodynamic component: temperature
Annual
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Re
lati
ve
Hu
mid
ity
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
-1.02%/decade, p < 0.001
Winter
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Re
lati
ve
Hu
mid
ity
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
Summer
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Re
lati
ve
Hu
mid
ity
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Spring
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Re
lati
ve
Hu
mid
ity
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
Autumn
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Re
lati
ve
Hu
mid
ity
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
-0.66%/decade, p = 0.002 -1.02%/decade, p < 0.001
-1.56%/decade, p < 0.001 -0.83%/decade, p = 0.004
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., et al (2014): Temporal evolution of surface humidity in Spain: recent trends and possible physical mechanisms. Climate Dynamics. 42:2655–2674
Aerodynamic component: relative humidity
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., et al. (2014). Sensitivity of reference evapotranspiration to changes in meteorological parameters in Spain (1961-2011). Water Resources Research.
Evolution of the atmospheric evaporative demand
January
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ET
o (
mm
)
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
February
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
March
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
April
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ET
o (
mm
)
70
80
90
100
110
120
May
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
June
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
120
140
160
180
200
220
July
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ET
o (
mm
)
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
August
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
140
150
160
170
180
190
September
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
80
90
100
110
120
130
October
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ET
o (
mm
)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
November
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
December
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
15
20
25
30
35
40
Annual
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
ET
o (
mm
)
A)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pic
hé e
vapora
tion (
mm
)
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
Pan e
vapora
tion (
mm
)
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
B)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pic
hé e
vapora
tion (
mm
)
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
Penm
an-M
onte
ith E
T0 (
mm
)
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
Evolution of the atmospheric evaporative demand
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
% o
f su
rfa
ce
0
20
40
60
80
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
An
om
alie
s
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
% o
f su
rfa
ce
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
A)
B)
C)
y = 0.033 x - 8.3
How AED is affecting drought severity?
Vicente-Serrano, S.M, et al (2014). Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters. 9, 044001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001
Vicente-Serrano, S.M, et al (2014). Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters. 9, 044001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001
How AED is affecting drought severity?
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ET
0 (
Km
3)
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
Str
eam
flo
w (
Km
3)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Str
ea./p
rec.
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
ET0
400 420 440 460 480 500
Str
ea
./p
rec
.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Pearson's r = -0.25
p < 0.1
Tau = -0.34
p < 0.01
Tau = 0.49
p < 0.01
Tau = -0.33
p < 0.01
A)
B)
C)
D)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
(K
m3)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Tau = -0.24
p < 0.05
Tau = -0.34
p < 0.01
B)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
200
400
600
800
1000
Str
eam
flo
w
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
ET
0
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
ea./p
rec.
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
ET0
950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200
Str
ea
./p
rec.
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5Pearson's r = -0.23
p = 0.12
Tau = -0.27p < 0.01
Tau = -0.32p < 0.01
Tau = 0.49p < 0.01
Tau = -0.28p < 0.01
NATURAL
ET
0
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
ea./p
rec.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ET0
900 950 10001050110011501200
Str
ea
./p
rec
.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5Pearson's r = -0.24
p < 0.1
Tau = 0.48p < 0.01
Tau = -0.35p < 0.01
REGULATED
Col 1 vs Col 2 Col 1 vs Col 2 Col 1 vs Col 2
ET
0
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
ea./p
rec.
0
1
2
3
4
5
ET0
900 1000 1100 1200 1300
Str
ea
./p
rec
.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Pearson's r = -0.28
p < 0.05
Tau = 0.50p < 0.01
Tau = -0.37p < 0.01
HIGHLY REGULATED
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
200
400
600
800
1000
Str
eam
flo
w
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Tau = -0.27p < 0.01
Tau = -0.35p < 0.01
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
200
400
600
800
1000
Str
eam
flo
w
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Tau = -0.25p < 0.05
Tau = -0.36p < 0.01
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
200
400
600
800
1000
Str
eam
flo
w
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
ET
0
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
ea./p
rec.
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
ET0
950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200
Str
ea
./p
rec
.
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5Pearson's r = -0.23
p = 0.12
Tau = -0.27p < 0.01
Tau = -0.32p < 0.01
Tau = 0.49p < 0.01
Tau = -0.28p < 0.01
NATURALE
T0
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
ea./p
rec.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ET0
900 950 10001050110011501200
Str
ea
./p
rec
.
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5Pearson's r = -0.24
p < 0.1
Tau = 0.48p < 0.01
Tau = -0.35p < 0.01
REGULATED
Col 1 vs Col 2 Col 1 vs Col 2 Col 1 vs Col 2 E
T0
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Str
ea./p
rec.
0
1
2
3
4
5
ET0
900 1000 1100 1200 1300
Str
ea
./p
rec
.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0Pearson's r = -0.28
p < 0.05
Tau = 0.50p < 0.01
Tau = -0.37p < 0.01
HIGHLY REGULATED
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
200
400
600
800
1000
Str
eam
flo
w
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Tau = -0.27p < 0.01
Tau = -0.35p < 0.01
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pre
cip
itati
on
200
400
600
800
1000
Str
eam
flo
w
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Tau = -0.25p < 0.05
Tau = -0.36p < 0.01
Vicente-Serrano, S.M, et al (2014). Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters. 9, 044001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001
How AED is affecting drought severity?
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
DIFFERENCE
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Pe
ars
on
's r
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Pe
ars
on
's r
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Pe
ars
on
's r
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
NATURAL REGULATED HIGHLY REGULATED
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Mo
nth
JFMA
MyJJl
AuSOND
Time-scale
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Pe
ars
on
's r
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
MAINA)
B)
SP
IS
PE
ID
IFF
ER
EN
CE
C)
Vicente-Serrano, S.M, et al (2014). Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environmental Research Letters. 9, 044001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001
How AED is affecting drought severity?
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010S
tandard
ized
Str
eam
flow
Index
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sta
nd
ard
ized P
recip
itatio
n
Evapotr
anspir
ation I
ndex
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Volu
men
em
ba
lsad
o (
Hm
3)
20
30
40
50
60
Entr
ada
s y
salid
as (
Hm
3)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Volu
men
em
ba
lsad
o (
Hm
3)
20
30
40
50
60
Entr
ada
s y
salid
as (
Hm
3)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Col 2
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Volu
men
em
ba
lsad
o (
Hm
3)
20
30
40
50
60
Entr
ada
s y
salid
as (
Hm
3)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Húmedos
Normales
Secos
An example of current hydrological drought management
Demandas mensuales en la cuenca
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Dem
an
da
s t
ota
les (
Hm
3)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Humid Dry
Normal
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sta
nd
ard
ize
d
Str
ea
mflo
w I
nd
ex
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sta
nd
ard
ize
d P
recip
ita
tio
n
Eva
po
tra
nsp
ira
tio
n I
nd
ex
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Many thanks foryour attention!