Daniele Zaccaria, Ph.D.Agricultural Water Management Specialist, UC Cooperative Extension

Ph.: (530) 219-7502 Email: dzaccaria@ucdavis.edu

UPDATE ON CALIFORNIA DROUGHT AND COORDINATED EFFORTS BY UC CE

Annual Water Program Team MeetingUC ANR Davis, CA – February 12-13, 2015

1) California Agriculture & Water Facts

2) Severity and Impacts of 2014 Drought

3) Current conditions: where are we at?

4) Coordinated response by UC Cooperative Extension

5) What’s next?

California Agriculture Facts (DWR Water Plan 2010)

Water Supply in Average Year (2010) 200 (precipit. + import) Environmental use 39Agricultural water use 33 (~30% from GW)Urban water use (residential + industrial) 8.5Recycled water use 0.65 (7% = 0.65/8.5 MAF)

Total beneficial water use 80.5

MAF/Yr

> 80,000 Farms => $45 Billion Industry (< 5% GIR)26 Million Acres of Agricultural Lands

13 Million Acres of Pasture and Rangeland9.5 Million Acres of Irrigated Cropland

6.2 Million Acres Annuals3.3 Million Acres Orchards/Vineyards

> 350 crops

California Water Facts

TOTAL BENEFICIAL WATER USE: 80.5 MAF

49%

41%AGRICULTURE

ENVIRONMENT

6.5 MAF(19%)5.9 MAF

(18%)

3.7 MAF

930,000 ac

Serves as a wetness index for the Sacramento River hydrologic region

The 8-station index showed 2014 as the 8th driest year in 106 years of records

CENTRAL SIERRA

SOUTH SIERRA

CURRENT REGIONAL SNOWPACK: % of APRIL 1 AVERAGE

18%

18%

21%

July 15th, 2014

Blend of 5 key indicators (Climate, Hydrology, Soil)

Sept. 18th, 2014

Feb. 3rd, 2015

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

Sept. 18th, 2014

6 out of 12 major reservoirs are around or below 35% capacity

All are far below historic averages (incl. Shasta and Lake Oroville) ~ < 50%

San Luis Reservoir (critical for the Central Valley and Southern California) is currently at 55% capacity

NASA ESTIMATED THAT CALIFORNIA NEEDS 11 TRILLION GALLONS (33.7 MAF) TO RECOVER FROM THE LAST 3-YEAR DROUGHT

(estimate based on satellite data)

1.5 TIMES THE WATER VOLUME OF LAKE MEAD

160% OF THE AVERAGE YEARLY PRECIPITATIONOR SEVERAL YEARS ABOVE AVERAGE

Population is growing at fast rateIMPLICATION 1:

there is an increasing internal need for food to meet the demand of population

CHALLENGE:increasing safe food

production on less fertile lands(more water & nutrients)

1990-2004 => ~ 75,000 ac. of prime agricultural land lost to urban

development in the S.J.V.

38.3 M

IMPLICATION 2:

TREND 2Irrigated Agriculture is concentrating: San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento-San Joaquin

Delta, Imperial Valley

Cropping patterns are intensifying:Conversion from annual to perennial crops (fruit, nuts and vines)

Higher planting densities

Shift from surface irrigation to localized methods (drip & micro-sprinkler)

> 35% of the US table food on only ~1.2% of

the US farmland

ENCOURAGED BY FUNDING PROGRAMS NRCS, CDFA, ETC.

Field crops

Orchards

Vineyards

Vegetables

Surface

Sprinkler Micro-irr.

Other

Survey of Irrigation Methods in California, 2010(Tindula, Orang & Snyder, 2013)

more frequent and flexible delivery schedules needed

by farmers

ARE WATER DISTRICTS CAPABLE TO DELIVER WATER WITH SUCH A FREQUENCY??

Questionnaire to 10,000 growers

51% usable return rate

Source: C. HAGUE, 2015

Irrigation System Evaluations - Kern County Mobile Lab(1988-2014)

Annual N. of Test vs. % of Micro

Source: B. Hocket, 2015

DISTRIBUTION UNIFORMITY

HOW ARE WE MANAGING THE AVAILABLE WATER SUPPLY?

BUT NOW THE REAL PROBLEM SEEMS FINDING WAYS TO MANAGE THE WATER DEMAND

WATER PRICING

INTRODUCTION OF WATER MARKET

REVISION OF WATER RIGHTS (untouched since 1880??)

BALANCING WATER USE WITH ECONOMIC BENEFITS ??

FARMERS IRRIGATE UP TO Vopt TO MAXIMIZE NET PROFIT

FARMERS IRRIGATE UP TO Vmax TO MAXIMIZE INCOME (crop yields)

SOUTHERN EUROPE

QUESTIONS

ARE CALIFORNIA GROWERS MORE WATER-EFFICIENT?

HAVE HANGES IN CROPS AND TECHNOLOGY/PRACTICES LOWERED THE TOTAL AGR. WATER USE?

IS NOW THE AGR. WATER DEMAND MORE ADJUSTABLE TO WATER STOCKS?

Water demand & use steadily growing to higher and less

adjustable levels

Shift to permanent crop makes irrigated agriculture

less drought-resilient

THE REAL KEY BUFFER TO AGRICULTURAL PROSPERITY IS GROUNDWATER

In the last 25 years (1990-2014) contractors received from the Central Valley Project and delivered to farmers

100% of water rights only on 3 years/25 years (12%) 75% of water rights only on 8 years/25 years (30%)

due to combined impacts of dry conditions and environmental regulations

DROUGHT IS NOT AN EMERGENCY!!!

Reliability of water supply (DWR)

~ 5% prices increase

California’s farmers reacted quickly, by pumping enough ground water to stay competitive

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT IN CALIFORNIA

State-Wide Agricultural Production Model, SWAP (Howitt et al. 2014)

DROUGHT IMPACT LOSS QUANTITYWater SupplySurface water reduction 6.6 million ac-ft (~30%)Groundwater pumping increase 5 million ac-ftNet water shortage 1.6 million ac-ftCropped landsIrrigated cropland fallowed (mostly S.J.V.) 430,000 ac (5% of total)Jobs Total job losses (seasonal & part-time) 17,100State-wide costsCrop revenue loss $810 millionLivestock and dairy revenue loss $203 millionAdditional pumping costs $454 millionTotal direct losses $1.5 billionTOTAL ECONOMIC COST $2.2 billion

WATER-EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES

FALLOW LAND WITH LOW-VALUE CROPS

INCREASE GROUNDWATER PUMPING

???

~ 75 % (GW. IS 53% OF TOTAL AG. USE)

~ 5-10 % ?

CONVERSION TO DIFFERENT CROPS

THE COMBINED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF 2014 DROUGHT APPEAR MORE SEVERE THAN THOSE IN 1990

UC OUTREACHING INFORMATION

Periodic update on the state of the drought

CALIFORNIA WILL BE FACING INCREASED CLIMATE VARIABILITY(recurrent DROUGHTS & FLOODS)

Cost of irrigation will be increasing on farming budgets

REGULATIONS

Groundwater Pumping => Monitoring & Control

ILRP (SCWCB) =>> Third party certification??

WATER DISTRICTS => Tiered Water Pricing

UC C.E. is engaged in applied research programs to further investigate:

water use efficiency, water productivity, deficit irrigation, gw. banking

re-use of treated wastewater (and drainage water) for agricultural production

crop breeding & drought resistant varieties adapting to water-limited conditions

Variety Trials

Adoption of New Irrigation Technologies & Practices

Surface Sprinkler Drip & micro Subsurface Drip

Crop and Variety Choice Crop Demand & Use Yield performance Drought resiliency

Technical viabilityEconomic profitabilityOptimization by Crop and Cropping Systems (rotations)

DROUGHT TIPS DROUGHT WEBINAR SERIES

DWR Technical Assistance Project on Drought“Developing Updated Drought Management Information”

ANR - DROUGHT WEB CLEARINGHOUSEhttp://ciwr.ucanr.edu/California_Drought_Expertise/

DWR Project “Updating Drought Management Information”

Rationale: a) Drought cannot be considered as “unexpected” b) Increase in frequency and severity in years to come

Objectives: #) Updating information on drought management#) Disseminating updated information to large audience

78 + FACT SHEETS (’70s & ’90s) ON WATER MANAGEMENT UNDER

DROUGHT

N. TITLE1 Citrus irrigation scheduling during a drought2 Leaching under saline shallow water tables3 Managing rootzone salinity in a drought year4 Managing irrigation in nut trees during drought5 Managing irrigation in fruit trees during drought6 Rational early season drought planning for Almond growers7 Drought irrigation strategies for deciduous orchards8 The use of treated waste water9 Field use of soil moisture sensors

10 Managing turfgrasses during drought11 Furrow irrigation12 Scheduling of surface-irrigated crops during a drought13 Leaching14 Drought strategies for wine grapes15 Crop salinity tolerance16 Water quality guidelines for vegetables and row crops17 Water quality guidelines for trees and vines18 Drought tips for vegetable and field crop production19 Drought strategies for feeding beef cattle and sheep20 Managing livestock nutrition during drought21 Coping with declining groundwater levels22 Cost comparisons between electric motors & engines for irrigation pumping23 Reuse of Saline and Drainage Water for Irrigation

http://ucanr.edu/insights

ARE WE DOING ENOUGH?

WHAT’S NEXT?

MOVE FORWARD TO A DROUGHT-PREPAREDNESS INITIATIVE??

THANK YOU!