THE 2012 ELECTIONS:A VIEWER’S GUIDE

Direction of Country

Sept.

11

Bush

re-

elec

ted

Right track Wrong direction

Obama inaugurated

Source: NYT/CBS News polls, 3/8/2001 to 6/2/2012

0102030405060708090

100Financial crisis

Trust In Our Institutions

Nurse

s

Phar

mac

ists

Med

ical

doc

tors

Polic

e offi

cers

Clerg

y

Acco

unta

nts

Jour

nalis

ts

Bank

ers

Real e

stat

e ag

ents

Lawye

rs

Busine

ss e

xecu

tives

Union

lead

ers

Stoc

kbro

kers

Tele

mar

kete

rs

Lobb

yist

s

Mem

bers

of C

ongr

ess

Car sal

esm

en0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%84%

73%70%

54%52%43%

26%25%20%19%18%18%12% 8% 7% 7% 7%

Do you have high/very high trust in ___

Source: Gallup, Nov. 28-Dec. 1, 2011

Voting Habits By Automobile Ownership

Dems Drive:• Hybrid

vehicles• Subarus• MinisRepubs Drive:• Jaguars• GMCs• Land Rovers• Lexuses

Voting Habits By Beer Preference

Dems drink:• Miller High Life• Guinness• Heineken• Corona

Repubs drink:• Michelob Ultra• Coors Light• Busch Light• Sam Adams

The 2008 Map

1/19/2009 7/19/2009 1/19/2010 7/19/2010 1/19/2011 7/19/2011 1/19/201225

50

75

Obama’s Job Approval

1/25/2009

67%

50%8/24/20

09

5/3/2010

50%

40%8/14/2011

Debt ceilin

g fight

OBL killed

Health care

passes

Stimulus

passes

1/19/2009 7/19/2009 1/19/2010 7/19/2010 1/19/2011 7/19/2011 1/19/201225

50

75

Obama’s Job Approval

1/25/2009

67%

50%8/24/20

09

5/3/2010

50%

40%8/14/2011

7/142011

46%

The Polls

U.S. Demographics

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 WhiteBlackHis-panicAsian

75.6%69.4%

Hisp 16.3%Af Am 12.2%Asian 4.7%

63.7%

Hisp 9%Af Am 11.8%Asian 2.8%

Hisp 12.6%Af Am 12.2%Asian 3.7%

U.S. Demographics

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 White

23.6%

75.6%69.4% 63.7

%

28.5%

33.2%

The Swing State Map

Buy A Tivo

Florida Ohio Virginia North Carolina

Colorado

$59.9 $62.9

$44.9

$22.8

$30.6

$59.0

$49.9

$43.0

$33.9

$24.2

Dem Spending

In Millions of Dollars

Total Ad Spending By Group

$239.6

$52.4 $75.5

$225.9

ObamaDem GroupsRomneyRepub Groups

In Millions of Dollars

2008 Vs. 2012

Obama Outside Dems

McCain/Romney

Outside Repubs

$310.1

$15.0

$134.8

$55.8

$239.6

$52.4 $75.5

$225.9

2008 Total

The Swing State Polls

Ohio Virginia Florida Colorado Iowa

46.2 47.3 47.3 47.84545.5 46.7 46.7 45.5 44.8

ObamaRomney

Source: Real Clear Politics

Obama’s 2008 Margin By State

DC VT NYMD DE CT

WA OR

NM NVMN IA VA FL NC M

T AZ ND TX MS KS KY AR AK UT

WY

Obama’s 2008 Margin By State

NH IA CO VA OH FL IN NC MO MT GA AZ

9.6 9.5 9

6.34.6

2.81.10.300000000

000004

-0.100000000

000001

-2.3

-5.2

-8.5

272 Electoral Votes

Congress’s Job Approval

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CBS/NYTGallupNBC/WSJ

13%-16%

50%

Historic House Turnover

1900

1908

1916

1924

1932

1940

1948

1956

1964

1972

1980

1988

1996

2004

0%

50%

100%

Democrats Republicans Other

Historic House Turnover

1900

1906

1912

1918

1924

1930

1936

1942

1948

1954

1960

1966

1972

1978

1984

1990

1996

2002

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

Recessions

House Turnover, 1980-2010

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

D+27

R+54

R+34 D+3

1

D+21

R+63

U.S. Senate

DemocratsRepublicansIndependents

5147

2

The Senate Landscape

Current Makeup: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

The Vulnerable Democrats

The Vulnerable Republicans

The Swing State Map