reading the polls presentation

8/21/2019 Reading the Polls presentation

1/48

Reading the polls

What to expect in 2015?

Tuesday 10 June

#NCVO2015


2/48

Welcome


3/48

What does the sector expect?

Charlotte Taylor, NCVO

@Charlotte_NCVO


4/48

Charities Forecast poll

What do you believe is the most likely outcome of the next

General Election in May 2015?

Sample: 717


5/48

Charities Forecast poll



Sample: 717


6/48

Office sweepstake

Labour majority Labour minority Labour / Lib Dem coalition

Conservative majority Conservative minority Conservative / Lib Demcoalition




7/48

Reading the polls

Tom Mludzinski, ComRes

@tom_ComRes


8/48

Reading the polls: what to expect in 2015?Tom Mludzinski,

Head of Political Polling, ComRes

@tom_ComRes


9/48

2010 RESULT

GE2010: hardly a ringing endorsement

Party Vote share Change HoC seats Change

Con 36.1% +3.7% 306 +94

Lab 29.0% -6.2% 258 -91

Lib Dem 23.0% +1.0% 57 -5

304

257

56 33

Current seat distribution

Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other

Target for majority: 326 Conservatives need net gain of 22

Labour need net gain of 69


10/48

THE BIG QUESTIONS

Two questions that everyone is seeking to answer:

1. How solid is the Labour lead? 2. What will happen to UKIP?


11/48

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

May'10

Jun'10

Aug'10

Sept'10

Oct'10

Nov'10

Dec'10

Jan'11

Feb'11

Mar'11

Apr'11

May'11

Jun'11

Jul'11

Aug'11

Sept'11

Oct'11

Nov'11

Dec'11

Jan'12

Feb'12

Mar'12

Apr'12

May'12

Jun'12

Jul'12

Aug'12

Sept'12

Oct'12

Nov'12

Dec'12

Jan'13

Feb'13

Mar'13

Apr'13

May'13

Jun'13

Jul'13

Aug'13

Sept'13

Oct'13

Nov'13

Dec'13

Jan'14

Feb'14

Mar'14

Apr'14

May'14

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrats

Jun-Dec 10:Avg. 3pt Con

lead

AVERAGE MONTHLY RATING

The story so far

Source: ComRes voting intention polls for The Independent, Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: all Britishadults intending to vote

Apr 12 - Apr 13:Avg. 8pt Lab lead

Jan 11 - Mar 12:Avg. 3pt Lab lead

May 13 - May 14:

Avg. 6pt Lab lead

30%

34%

9%


12/48

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

May'10

Jun'10

Aug'10

Sept'10

Oct'10

Nov'10

Dec'10

Jan'11

Feb'11

Mar'11

Apr'11

May'11

Jun'11

Jul'11

Aug'11

Sept'11

Oct'11

Nov'11

Dec'11

Jan'12

Feb'12

Mar'12

Apr'12

May'12

Jun'12

Jul'12

Aug'12

Sept'12

Oct'12

Nov'12

Dec'12

Jan'13

Feb'13

Mar'13

Apr'13

May'13

Jun'13

Jul'13

Aug'13

Sept'13

Oct'13

Nov'13

Dec'13

Jan'14

Feb'14

Mar'14

Apr'14

May'14

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrats

UKIP

AVERAGE MONTHLY RATINGUKIP

and the rise of UKIP

17%

30%

34%

9%

Source: ComRes voting intention polls for The Independent, Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: all British adults intending to vote


13/48

RESULTS FROM VOTE 2014

Earthquake? Tremor?

24

257

27

8 9

European Parliamentary Election

Source: ComRes / The People; Base 2,007 British adults 18+, 2nd3rdApr 14

LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP Other

29

3113

17

10

Local Elections: Projected NationalShare


14/48

WHY PEOPLE VOTED FOR UKIP

But why did it happen? Immigration was the top reason people voted UKIP

74%

59%

52%

39%33%

29%25%

21%18% 16%

13%

Britain needstighter

immigrationcontrols

I want Britainto leave EU

UKIP saywhat they

think

Labourdoesn't

represent me

Con Partydoesn't

represent meanymore

Other Partiesare all the

same

Nigel Farage Coalit iongovnt record

UKIP are notpart ofpolitical

establishment

DavidCameron

Gay marriage

10/10 importance of reasons for voting UKIP at European Election

Q. How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European

elections on Thursday? Please use a scale of 1-10 where 1 is not at all important and 10 is very important. Base:All adults saying they voted UKIP at the EP2014 elections (n=850)


15/48

LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING FOR UKIP IN 2015

And what does it all mean for 2015?

10%

37%

36%

49%

54%

14%

GE2010 Convoters

EP 2014 UKIPvoters

10/10 Certain Likely (5-9/10) Unlikely (1-4/10)

Q. Thinking ahead to the General Election next year where MPs are elected to Parliament in Westminster, on a scale

of 1-10 how likely or unlikely are you to vote for each of the following political parties? UKIPBase: All adults saying they voted UKIP at the EP2014 elections (n=850), All adults saying they voted Conservative in

2010 (1,178)


16/48

16

Men

Older

Ex-Conservatives

38% of UKIP supporters voted Conservative in2010, 10% Labour, 15% LibDem

Midlands and the South

Which also tend to be Tory areas

Read the Daily Mail or Telegraph

Not the Guardian!

More negative & grumpy

Europe is an issuebut even moreworried about

immigration & economy

So who are UKIP supporter (for Westminster elections)?

PROFILE OF UKIP VOTERS

33%32%

54% 51%

I am attracted to UKIPbecause they say what they

think

UKIP offers a realisticalternative political vision of

Britain

Straight-talkers*

Agree Disagree

Source: ComRes / The Independent; Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th13thApril 2014

88% of UKIP

supporters


17/48

How solid is theLabour lead?


18/48

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION OF 2010 VOTERS

Labour are hanging on to their voters, but where are the others going?

Source: ComRes voting intention polls for the Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: 10,534 British adults, aggregated over 6

waves of ComRes online voting intention polls, October 13 Mar 14

79%

3%

1% 5%

2% 9%

66%4%

17%

1%

2%10%

26%

28%

6%

11%

7%

21%

LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP Other Dont know


19/48

Weaknesses

Only represent the interests

of the rich

- 51% Agree, 42% Disagree

More divided now than

under John Major

- 56% Agree, 23% Disagree

I feel I have personally

benefited from UK

economic growth over the

past six months

-Agree 11%, Disagree 71%

The economy and credibility

Strengths

Most likely to keep economy

growing

- Con 40% Lab 26%

Net economic trust

- Cameron/Osborne: -13/ -21

- Miliband/Balls: -35/ -43

Most trusted to negotiate on

Britains behalf with the rest

of the EU

- Con 39%, Lab 24%

CONSERVATIVE PARTY STRENGTHS

Leadership


20/48

PARTIESUNFAVOURABLE OPINION

Detoxification hasnt worked for the Conservatives

Source: ComRes / Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday; Base 2,031 British adults 18+, 12 th13thFeb 14


21/48

LEADERSFAVOURABLE OPINION

But Cameron is still an asset to his party, and Miliband is a weakness

Glamorous assistant to Cameron

Going the wrong way up a one way street

Source: ComRes / Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday; Base 2,031 British adults 18+, 12 th13thFeb 14


22/48

Ed Miliband as Prime Minister?

A little scaredApprehensive

He doesnt inspire confidence as

an individualKeep to the left!

MILIBAND AMONG LABOUR VOTERS

Source: ComRes / Channel 4 Focus GroupsLib Dem voters in 2010, now voting Labour, 9thApril 2014


23/48

Pound in your pocket and in touch

Strengths

Most likely to get the cost of

living down

- Lab 35% Con 26%

Most likely to make your

family better off

- Lab 41% Con 31%

The party most likely to

protect peoples jobs- Lab 39%, Con 23%

Weaknesses

Ed Miliband is turning out to bea good leader of the Labour

party

- Agree 24%, Disagree 45%

My family is more likely tobenefit from economic growth if

Ed Miliband becomes Prime

Minister in 2015 than if David

Cameron remains in office

- Agree 29%, Disagree 39%

Record economic optimism

- Jan 14 - 36% say economy has

improved in the last 3 months,

highest ever (since Oct 2010)

LABOUR PARTY STRENGTHS

Leadership


24/48

Where will the battlelines for 2015 be

drawn?


25/48

47%44%

42%

26% 25%23% 23% 21%

16% 16%

Keeping downthe cost ofeveryday

items, such asfood, energy

and travel

Controllingimmigration

Managing theNHS

Protecting theeconomicrecovery

Making thewelfare system

fairer

Reducingcrime and anti-

socialbehaviour

RedefiningBritain's

relationshipwith the EU

Improvinghousing

affordability

Reducing theGovernmentsbudget deficit

Improving theeducation

system

MOST IMPORTANT GOVNT PRIORITIES IN DECIDING WHO TO VOTE FOR AT GE2015

Cost of living is the number one issue in the marginals, but immigration important too

Q. Below is a list of priorities for a potential Government to have, please select the three which you wouldconsider most important when deciding who to vote for at a General Election? Base: adults in marginal

constituencies (n=1,038)


26/48

PARTY MOST TRUSTED (MARGINALS POLLING)

Policy strengths and weaknesses on the big issues

20%17%

21%

34%

28%

11%

29%

18%

5%3%

5% 4%7%

37%

7% 8%

Keep down the cost ofeveryday items

Control immigration Manage the NHS Promote economicgrowth

LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP

Q. Which Party do you trust most to? Base: adults in marginal constituencies (n=1,038)


27/48

PERSONAL FINANCES

Few feel that personal finances have improved in the last year, but some optimism

for the future

Source: ComRes / BBC Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 7th11thMarch 2014

Q1. Over the last 12 months would you say your personal financial situation has improved, got worse or stayed about the same? Q2. And do you think

your own personal financial situation will improve, get worse, or stay the same in the next 12 months?

28%

19%

51%

2%

The next year

17%

31%51%

1%

The lastyear

Improve Get worse Stay about the same Don't know


28/48

COST OF LIVING

Utility bills and food shopping top public concerns

Source: ComRes / BBC Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 7 th11thMarch 2014CRQ4. Which two or three, if any, of the following things do you worry about the most?

10%

16%

23%

24%

39%

43%

47%

Cost of childcare

Cost of public transport

Being able to afford mortgage / rent payments

Being able to afford luxuries

Cost of petrol/diesel

Cost of food shopping

Being able to pay utility bills

Most common concerns

Agree


29/48

The Coalition Government is more to blame than the last Labour Government for

the current state of the economy

THE BLAME GAME

Source: ComRes / The Independent. Base: Jan 20121,001 British adults 18+, 27 th29thJan 2012; March 2013

1,003 British adults 18+, 22nd24thMarch 2013

26%

62%

12%

32%

54%

14%

Agree Disagree Don't know

Labour still blamed, but Coalition increasingly so

Jan 12 & Mar 13


30/48

THE BIG QUESTIONS REVISITED

Two questions answered by more questions

1. How solid is the Labour lead? What will happen to Lib Dem

switchers?

What if the economy improves?

Will Labour offer a positive,credible message?

2. What will happen to UKIP?

Have they peaked?

Can they figure prominently in anational, General Election?

What impact will they have onConservatives and Labour?


31/48

Milestones on the way to May 2015

ROAD TO 2015

Scotland Independence:

impact on Westminster?By-Elections:

Very different to GE

Opportunities for UKIP

The economy:

Continuing good news

Will it feed through to public

Conference season:

Mood setter

Plots?


32/48

SWINGS AT GENERAL ELECTIONS

2015 is difficult but not impossible for the Conservatives

Source: House of Commons Library

2.8 1.11.7

1.2

4.8

5.4

4.0

1.83.2

5.1

3

2.7

0.9

2.1

1.8

2 10.2

19501951

1955

1959

1964

1966

19701974 (Feb)

1974 (Oct)

1979

1983

1987

1992

1997

2001

2005

2010

2015

Swing to ConSwing to Lab

?


33/48

in 182 years have there been successive hung parliaments (1910)

since 1900 has a government increased its vote share after more than 2 years in

office

Last time in 1955

Only twice since 1900

was the last time The Opposition won an overall majority after just a single parliament

out of office

Predicting the unpredictable


34/48

The size of the task for the Conservatives

CURRENT SEAT DISTRIBUTION FAVOURS LABOUR

Thefigures

2% Con to Lab swing = Miliband PM

5% Con to Lab swing = overall Labour majority

5% Lib Dem to Lab swing = Labour as largest party Even without a swing to Labour, if UKIP gets 8% = Miliband PM

Theissues

Economy, welfare reform & immigration vs. One Nation Labour

Cost of living vs. economic competence

The floodwaters receding


35/48

For more information please contact:

Tom Mludzinski

Head of Political Polling

[email protected]

@tom_ComRes

020 7871 8674
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


36/48

Break


37/48

Where are we now?

Charlotte Taylor, NCVO

@Charlotte_NCVO


38/48

The manifestos: what do we already know?

Much is yet to be decided and manifestos to be written.

More policy announcements expected in autumn

conferences.

But fixed-term parliament has led to a very long election

campaign.


39/48

The manifestos: what do we already know?Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat

Economy Eliminate structural

deficit by 2017/18;

Further 25bn public

spending cuts

Tax 10p rate of tax and 50p

rate of tax;Abolish married

couples tax break;

Cut business rates

Personal allowance

increased to 12,500;Abolish married couples

tax break; Mansion tax

on properties over 2m

Constitutional House of Lords reform;Draw up a federal

constitution for the UK;

Parliamentary

candidates allowed to

job share

Welfare Further 15bn cuts to

welfare spending

Young person job

guarantee;

Abolish bedroom tax

Hardship payments

made available for

benefit claimants who

have been sanctioned;

Immediate review of thebedroom tax


40/48


National minimum

wage

Living wage

Substantial increase,

possibly 7 per hour

Link NMW to average

earnings

Government contracts

only to living wage

employers; tax

incentives for livingwage employers.

Create an official living

wage. Central

government must pay

this rate, and local

government

encouraged to do so.Companies over 250

employees made to

account for not paying

living wage

Education Free schools and

academy expansion

Tuition fees cut to

6,000 pa;

Parent-led academieslinked to place

shortages;

Qualification

requirements for

teachers in academies

& free schools

Retain tuition fees;

Qualification

requirements forteachers in academies

and free schools;

Decentralisation of

oversight of academies

Childcare Tax-free childcare forhouseholds with both

25 hours freeentitlement for workin

Free entitlementextended to 10 hrs for


41/48


Health & social care Merge health and

social care budgets.

Housing 200,000 homes by

2020

3 year tenancies

Abolish agency fees

Energy Greater local powers to

block onshore wind

turbines

Energy bills frozen until

2017;

Abolish Green Deal

No public subsidy for

nuclear power

Europe In/out referendum by

2017

(Probably) no in/out

referendum

In/out referendum only

in event of a significant

transfer of powers toEurope

Voluntary sector Social investment Repeal and replace

Lobbying Act


42/48

What does it mean for the voluntary

sector?

Karl Wilding, NCVO

@karlwilding


43/48

We have to acknowledge that actually Labour missed a trickand failed by not connecting to the debate about the big

society. It seems a long time ago now but there was a

compelling story there... about what are out civic duties and

what institutions should be built to nurture the common good..

Priorities


44/48

Policies


45/48

Planning: scenarios


46/48

Practicalities


47/48

Any questions?


48/48

Forthcoming events

Evolve: the annual event for the voluntary sector

16thJune

Cert i f icate in Campaign ing

The original ground-

breaking campaigning course is now

recruiting for October 2014.

reading the polls presentation

Documents