mainstreet - alberta riding polls

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 688 Calgary Centre residents, 657 Lethbridge residents, and 681 Saint Albert-Edmonton residents by Smart IVR on October 13, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Calgary Centre margin of error: +/- 3.72%, Lethbridge margin of error: +/- 3.81%, Saint Albert Edmonton margin of error: +/- 3.74%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed

by age & gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

ALBERTA

October 16, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - With less than a week to go, a new set of Mainstreet/Postmedia riding polls in Alberta finds a tight race in Calgary Centre and the Conservatives ahead in Saint Albert-Edmonton and Lethbridge.

CALGARY CENTREIts down to the wire in Calgary Centre, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. This has been the highest profile race of Alberta but even so we have a found a deadlock between the Liberals and Conservatives. This is definitely a race to watch on election night.

LETHBRIDGEThe NDP had high hopes for Lethbridge, continued Maggi. Though they did very well provincially a win here is not in the cards. The Conservatives have a large lead and the NDP are out of time. There is room for the race to tighten up but likely not enough for an upset.

SAINT ALBERT-EDMONTONIn Saint Albert-Edmonton we have an interesting race with independent candidate and former Conservative MP Brent Rathgeber contesting. It looks like this will be a Conservative hold though there may be Conservatives who feel comfortable voting for Rathgeber when they get to the ballot box. Its an interesting situation and well have to wait until Election Night for the final result, he finished.

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted an NDP majority government in Alberta (2015), a Liberal majority government in British Columbia, and a Liberal majority government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of last Octobers Toronto mayoral election.

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Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

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JOAN CROCKATT (CPC)JILLIAN RATTI (NDP)KENT HEHR (LPC)THANA BOONLERTUNDECIDED

Certain33%16%32%5%14%

Likely11%28%22%10%30%

Unlikely21%15%29%11%24%

Might36%6%

24%3%

32%

JOAN CROCKATT (CPC)JILLIAN RATTI (NDP)KENT HEHR (LPC)THANA BOONLERTUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3422%18%35%9%16%115

35-4933%19%28%2%19%162

50-6436%12%33%5%14%194

65+42%13%25%3%17%217

Female33%15%29%4%

20%356

Male29%17%34%7%13%332

CALGARY CENTRE

Crockatt Ratti Hehr Boonlert Undecided

Who would you vote for if a federal election were held today?

All Voters Decided & Leaning

31%

16%

31%

5% 16%

37%

19%

38%

6%

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTERMIGHT CHANGE MINDDONT KNOW

CPC81%15%5%

NDP53%43%4%

GPC79%20%1%

LPC49%38%13%

And, is there anyone you would lean towards?

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CALGARY CENTRE

Crockatt Ratti Hehr Boonlert Undecided

7%

6%

6%

1%

80%

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MICHAEL COOPER (CPC)DARLENE MALAYKO (NDP)BEATRICE GHETUBBA (LPC)ANDREA OLDHAM (GPC)BRENT RATHGEBER (IND)UNDECIDED

MICHAEL COOPER (CPC)DARLENE MALAYKO (NDP)BEATRICE GHETUBBA (LPC)ANDREA OLDHAM (GPC)BRENT RATHGEBER (IND)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

SAINT ALBERT EDMONTON


Certain40%19%11%39%26%10%

Likely40%6%7%4%19%24%

Unlikely18%0%7%2%

28%46%

Might30%17%4%9%15%25%

18-3439%27%4%4%

30%4%115

35-4948%17%10%2%18%9%162

50-6435%13%5%2%

25%15%186

65+36%9%4%1%

28%21%218

Female42%19%4%0%24%10%364

Male38%18%4%3%

27%10%317

Cooper Malayki Ghetubba Oldham Rathgeber Undecided


40%

18%

4% 2% 26%

10%

43%

20%

7% 2% 28%



CPC85%13%2%

NDP89%8%3%

INDI54%42%4%

LPC64%31%5%


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SAINT ALBERT-EDMONTON

8%

7%

24%

7%

9%

46%

Cooper Malayki Ghetubba Oldham Rathgeber Undecided

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RACHAEL HARDER (CPC)CHERYL MEHEDEN (NDP)MIKE PYNE (LPC)KAS MACMILLAN (GPC)UNDECIDED

Certain52%22%10%3%13%

Likely19%58%6%1%

16%

Unlikely45%19%10%0%27%

Might32%35%28%3%2%

RACHAEL HARDER (CPC)CHERYL MEHEDEN (NDP)MIKE PYNE (LPC)KAS MACMILLAN (GPC)UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3455%26%6%2%10%103

35-4948%24%13%3%12%140

50-6445%23%13%5%14%209

65+58%12%10%3%16%205

Female55%23%11%1%11%336

Male47%24%10%6%14%321

LETHBRIDGE

Harder Meheden Pyne MacMillan Undecided



51%

23%

10%

3% 16%

56%

26%

13%

4%



CPC92%5%2%

NDP84%13%3%

GPC74%26%0%

LPC70%25%5%


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LETHBRIDGE

Harder Meheden Pyne MacMillan Undecided

7%

6%

6%

1%

80%

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal election?

Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote

Might vote Unlikely to vote


Joan Crockatt of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Jillian Ratti of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Kent Hehr of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Thana Boonlert of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Decided Only]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Dont know

And, is there anyone you would lean towards? [Undecided Only]

Joan Crockatt of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper Jillian Ratti of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair Kent Hehr of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Thana Boonlert of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

CALGARY CENTRE SCRIPT

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Rachael Harder of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperCheryl Meheden of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Mike Pyne of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKas MacMillan of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided



Dont know


Rachael Harder of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperCheryl Meheden of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Mike Pyne of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauKas MacMillan of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

LETHBRIDGE SCRIPT

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Michael Cooper of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperDarlene Malayko of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Beatrice Ghettuba of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauAndrea Oldham of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Independent Candidate Brent Rathgeber Undecided



Dont know


Michael Cooper of the Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperDarlene Malayko of the NDP led by Tom Mulcair

Beatrice Ghettuba of the Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauAndrea Oldham of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Independent Candidate Brent Rathgeber Undecided

SAINT ALBERT-EDMONTON

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

mainstreet - alberta riding polls

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