Future of Self sufficiency, Food security and Food safety

in Sri Lanka

Dr WMW Weerakoon

Director / Senior Agronomist

Field Crop Research and Development Institute,

Mahailluppallama

Presented at IPS – IFPRI – National Consultation Workshop at the IPS Auditorium, July 2015

Food security ……

When all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 1996)

Are we producing enough food?

• Excess production of rice

- Vulnerable to seasonal fluctuation

• Production of OFC’s does not meet the requirement

• Year round production of vegetables ???

– Quality??

• Seasonality in fruit production ??

Demand for all food crops would increase significantly in the future…….

Consumption pattern Per capita consumption kg/ year • Rice - 107 kg

• Rice based food - 8.8 Kg

• Wheat flour - 25 kg

• Vegetables - 40 kg

• Fruits - 30 kg

• Oil - 4.7 liters

+ 86 coconuts

• Chicken - 5.7 kg

– Population - 900 billion

– Rate of increase in food production is on the decline

– Food for energy generation - Bio fuel ???

– Rising income, urbanization and changing food habits

– Declining subsidies

– Increasing cost of inputs and restrictions

– Diminishing land availability and productivity

– Climate Change

Global Crisis …….

Competition for food is increasing We must produce our own food

Daily consumption, g

2013* 2020 2030

Rice 319 270 220

Pulses 6.5 30 50

Nuts (G’nut) 3.3 8 12

Meat based

products 24 35 43

Rice consumption should be decreased, Consumption of pulses and nuts should be

increased

Food requirement, tons / year

2013 2020 2030

Rice 2,432,637 2,192,242 2,018,291

Pulses 51,115 253,135 461,437

Nuts 26,639 68,139 111,790

Meat based

products 233,260 362,190 486,685

Oil 403,720 573,135 783,571

Food Requirement

National Rice production • In 2012 Paddy production decreased by 0.2% to 3.88 million tons

compared to 2011.

• 2013 – Excess production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2020 2030

Year

Production Requirement

Trend in Asweddumized Extent, Annual Cultivated Extent, Production and Average Yield of Rice in Sri Lanka ( 1950 - 2013)

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 6 8 10 12

Asw

edd

um

ized

Ext

. & C

ult

ivat

ed E

xt. (

mill

. ha)

, P

rod

uct

ion

(m

ill. t

) &

pro

du

ctiv

ity,

t h

a

Year

Cultivated Extent Annual Production Average Yield Asweddumized Extent

Some rice growing eco-systems in Sri Lanka

Ecosystem Season Area

‘ 000 ha

Present

average t/ha

Realizable

Potential

t/ha

Target yield, t/ha

2015 2020 2030

Dry&Intermediate zone

major irrigation

Maha 253,027 5.14 8 6.00 6.50 7.00

Yala 163,256 4.85 7 5.50 6.00 6.50

Dry&Intermediate zone

minor irrigation

Maha 112,766 4.19 8 5.20 5.50 6.50

Yala 47,441 3.77 7 5.00 5.50 6.00

Dry Zone rainfed Maha 47,214 3.55 6.5 3.80 4.00 4.50

Yala 1462 3.2 5.5 3.80 4.00 4.50

Intermediate zone rainfed Maha 44,190 3.73 6 4.00 4.50 5.00

Yala 21,801 3.26 6 4.00 4.50 5.00

Wet Zone Maha 82,075 3.39 5 4.00 4.00 4.50

Yala 68,462 3.22 5 4.00 4.00 4.50

Cultivated extent, average, potential and target yield for

different eco systems during Maha & Yala seasons

Trends in OFC technology in Sri LAnka

1950s

1980s

today

2020’s

2030s

Establishment of Dry zone research

Self-sufficiency

• Green revolution

Year-round production ?? Quality ??

• Ecological zone based crop cultivation

• Less dependence on hazardous chemicals

Self sufficiency, High quality produce, Efficient input use, eco-friendly

• Cutting-edged technologies, climate smart agric

• Labor-saving, quality improvement

Safety, functionality, value-added OFC

• Improvement of public health

• Leisure living, Healthy nation

Self sufficiency ???? Environment security

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

ann

ual

req

uir

emen

t a

nd

pro

du

ctio

n

year

Requirement PRODUCTION

Requirement and Production (000’ tons) of maize in Sri Lanka

• Large millers - 04

• medium and small millers - 17 Total compound Animal Feed requirement

Poultry 802,000 tons

Dairy 140,000 tons

Poultry feed production

2013 - Maize Usage in feed 189 000 tons >25%

Requirement

2014 @ 25% 240 000 tons

@ 35% 275000 tons

@ 50% 480000 tons

Dairy feed production

2014 – 140 000 tons

Feed Industry in Sri Lanka

0

1

2

3

4

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

pro

du

tivi

ty, t

/ha

ann

ual

ext

ent

and

pro

du

ctio

n

year

Annual extent PRODUCTION AVERAGE YIELD

Maize Annual extent (ha), Production (tons) and National average yield (tons /ha)

National requirement and production of OFC’s

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Maize Big onion Soybean

2013 requirement 2020 requirement 2013 prodution

National requirement and 2013 production of OFC’s

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000P

rod

uct

ion

, to

ns

2013 requirement prodution 2013

In 2013 …….. Total OFC Requirement - 912,000 tons. Total production - 506,000 tons

More food from less Land

Water

Labor

Agro chemicals

The Greatest Challenge is to achieve MORE from LESS

“Challenges in the Dry Zone Agriculture - worse”

Cu

ltiv

atio

n b

ase

d o

n A

gro

Ec

olo

gica

l Zo

ne

More Crops must be produced on less land

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

19

65

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69

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71

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00

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11

20

12

Pe

r ca

pit

a ag

ric.

Lan

d a

rea

Agr

ic.

lan

d a

rea,

ha

Year

Agricultural land area (ha) per capita agri land area, ha

Mahailluppallama

Climatic Regions of Sri Lanka

Crop National Average yield, t/ha 2013

Realizable potential, t/ha

Research potential, t/ha

in 2013

Land requirement with present national average

yield, ha

Land req. (ha) with increased

avg. yield

2013 2015 2015 Green chillie 4.7 8 32 15,455 15,455 10,000 Dry chillie 1 2 7 44,050 45,000 22,500 Red Onion 12.1 14 18 5,877 6,623 5,714 Groundnut 1.8 2 2.8 15,876 19,337 17,500 Mungbean 1.3 1.5 2.5 16,706 19,309 16,348 Cowpea 1.3 1.5 2 12,436 9,325 8,206 Blackgram 0.8 1.2 2.2 16,256 17,073 11,667 Finger millet 1.2 2 4 6,926 8,449 4,943 Sesame 0.8 1 1.6 17,129 18,072 15,000 Maize 3.1 5 8 67,778 129,450 80,000 Big onion 16.5 20 37 14,455 15,152 12,500 Soybean 1.7 2.2 3.5 102,941 117,647 90,909

Total 335,885 420,891 295,287

Land requirement with present productivity and realizable potential to meet the total OFC need

Highest annual extent cultivated with OFC over the last 30 years - 277,124 ha

Bridge the yield

gap

Crop Present national

average yield,

t/ha

Yield

achieved in

2014, t/ha

Targeted realizable

yield, t/ha

2018 2025

Green chili 4.7 32 35 40

Maize 3.1 7.0 7.5 9.0

Big onion 16.5 37 40 45

Red onion 12.1 18 14.0 16

Ground nut 1.8 2.8 2.5 2.8

Finger millet 1.1 4.0 4.0 4.5

Black gram 0.9 2.2 2.5 3.0

Green gram 1.3 2.5 2.8 3.0

Cowpea 1.3 2.5 2.8 3.0

Soybean 1.7 3.5 4.0 4.5

Increase productivity

Further Increase yield potential

Unrealized Yield Gaps in OFC (Dry Zone)

Yie

ld (

t/ha)

Unrealized Yield Gap

Biotic stresses (Pests & Diseases)

Abiotic stresses (Drought, Nutrient deficiency

Poor Crop Management

Presence of optimum field conditions in all eco systems is an unrealistic target. Varieties should be able to withstand stresses without affecting yield

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Maximum realized yield underoptimum conditions

National average yield

Maize

Past achievement Before 1950’s - All traditional varieties ( about 300)

- Tall plant type (>1-2 meters) - Lodging - Long maturity period (>5 month) - Fertilizer non-responsive - Susceptible to rice blast (a disease) - good grain quality (for local standards)

- Predominantly one crop a year (photosensitive mawee varieties) - Low productivity (1 t/ha) Heenati, Hondaravalu, Murungakayan, Muthu samba

Suduru samba etc. Rice Sector

Trends of Rice Extent, Annual Production, Average Yield, Rice Imports and Population

growth over past seven decades ( 1940 – 2013 ) in Sri Lanka

Decade

Population

(millions)

Production

(ton. millions)

Cultivated

Extent

(ha. millions)

Yield

(t./ha)

Rice Imports

as a % of

requirement

1940 6.0 0.26 0.25 0.65 60

1950 7.5 0.52 0.38 1.56 50

1960 9.9 0.90 0.59 1.86 40

1970 12.5 1.60 0.75 2.63 25

1980 14.7 2.12 0.85 2.94 10

1990 16.3 2.50 0.85 3.18 5

2000 18.5 2.86 0.87 3.86 <1

2010 20.0 4.25 1.10 4.5 <1

2013 21.0 4.62 1.13 4.33

Increase

over 1940 decade 3.3 fold 17.0 fold 4.5 fold 6.66 fold 60

New varieties and associated technologies

1. Develop new varieties for both Favourable and unfavourable eco systems – Maximize production from high potential eco systems

– Optimum production from medium potential eco systems

2. Varieties for specific purposes • Increase functional properties

• Increase palatability

3. Varieties / crops for specific AEZ’s

- Further exploit available germplasm -Introduction -Reverse engineering -Conventional crop improvement methods -Use of new tools

Mid century average temperature and precipitation

Maha season

GCM models used (20) 1. CCSM4 (E), 2. GFDL-ESM2M (I), 3. HadGEM2-ES (K), 4. MIROC5 (O), 5. MPI-ESM-MR (R)

Batalagoda

Bombuwela

Yala season

Do we have the necessary germplasm, Adaptation measures …

Some of our rice varieties are adaptable to diverse eco systems

Optimum temperature for different crop species – tropical environment

Crop Optimum temp. Rice - 310C (sterility - pollen death when spikelet T 0 - > 320C)

Maize - 310C (high temp + moisture stress - empty pods)

Chilli - 28 0C (above 330C – flower drop, poor pod setting)

Soybean - 30 0C (> 400C – empty pods)

Grain crops will be most affected with increasing air Temp.

Water.. Excess? Deficit?? • Water is becoming an scarce resource

– Global per capita availability (1959 – 2005) decreased by 34 – 76%

• Share of water for agriculture is fast declining

• Rice consumes about 50% of irrigation water in Asia

• Farming is becoming vulnerable to changes in rain fall…. Excess??? Deficit???

Total water flow and amount diverted in Mahaweli

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Inflow Diversion Courtesy of Mahaweli authority

Diversify well drain paddy lands with other crops

Alternatives to water shortages

Agronomic water management

Tolerant varieties

Methods of establishment

Screening for moisture stress

PULSES

Item Water requirement, L/Kg

Beef 3798

Pork 1546

chicken 959

peanut 650

Soybean 442

Pigeonpea 88

Water efficient crops

Climate Smart Agriculture

• Adaptation of climate smart measures for the Dry Zone tank eco systems – Reuse ground water with alternative

irrigation systems

• Increasing Resilience of Upland Cropping Systems to CC Impacts through a Modified conservation farming technologies – Incorporate the concept of precision farming

Modified alley cropping

Dead storage phase

• Climate-resilient cultivars, coupled with climate-smart production practices

Need modification

Sterility

We must be ready with new varieties and adaptation technologies

Screening for high temperature

Do you think that the crops that we eat are safe?

Rice Blast

Bacterial Leaf Blight

Brown Plant Hopper

Gall Midge

Rice (Oryza sativa)

Major pests and diseases Chilli

Chillie

Grain legumes

“people of the world must decide that we either use agricultural chemicals

and use them wisely,

in the right amount and

the right kind, to produce the food

or we all starve.”

Dr. Norman Borlaug

Biologically efficient • Highly selective • Fast impact • Optimal residual effect • Good plant tolerance • Low risk of resistance development

User friendly • Low acute toxicity • Low chronic toxicity • Good formulation characteristics • Safe application method • Long store stability

Environmentally sound • Low toxicity for non target organisms • Fast degradation in the environment • Low mobility in soil • No residue in food and fodder • Low application rate

Economically viable • Good cost : profit ratio for the farmer • Broad use • Applicability in integrated Crop + Pest Management • Innovative product, Competitive and Patentable

Pe

rfe

ct A

gro

Ch

em

ical

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's

% In

sect

icid

e u

sage

Year

Class 1 class 11 Class 111 Class 1V

Insecticides used in Sri Lanka over the years

Low Toxic chemicals but farmers application window is very short

Agro chemical cost

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rs

pe

r ac

Pesticide cost 2002-2013 maha season

Paddy chilli Red onion Green gram

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rs

pe

r ac

Pesticide cost 2002-2012 yala season

Paddy Soya bean chilli Big onion Red onion

Import of Agro chemicals to the country, mt year

0500

10001500200025003000350040004500

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

Insecticides Herbicides Fungicides

Formulation, tons

• Management options – Time of planting

– Integrated pest management approaches

– Judiciary use of fertilizer

–Use of resistant varieties

reduced number of sprays from more than 4 to less than 1

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

1970 2010

Chemical usage

insecticides Fungicides Weedicides

Usage of insecticides decreased Usage of weedicides increased

Rice is a much safer food than any other major food that we eat

Agro chemical usage by farmers for OFC

Spraying intervals adopted by farmers, yala 2009

Spraying interval % of farmers

<4 days 26

4 – 6 days 46

7 – 9 days 20

10-14 days 8

Crop Recommended Spraying interval, days

Interval practiced by farmers, days

Chilli 10 - 14 4

Legumes 10 - 14 3 sprays

Onion 10 4

Maize 3-5 WAP (once) Weekly application

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39

Ch

em

ical

ap

plie

d.

Ml h

a

Days after planting

with sprinkler without sprinkler farmer practice

Chilli

Reduce Biotic stresses – Develop resistant varieties and associated technologies

• Continue identification of resistant / tolerant lines

• Integrated pest and disease management packages for major OFC

• Use of biotechnology to increase variety resistance

• How much of the chemicals apply endup in the biological cycle “Detection of Toxicological impurities in food, feed and water”

Food Security, Self sufficiency at what cost ??

Future food security and Self sufficiency depends on Further increase in

Yield potential

with varieties and associated technologies having

Higher input use efficiencies and

Resistance / Tolerance to

biotic and abiotic stresses

Those have it - will win

Those who don’t have it ????

Thank you

Constraints for OFC cultivation

• Increasing yield gap between potential and realized by farmers

• Lack of high yielding varieties

• No specialized varieties for specific food items - Changing food habits

• Variable weather patterns / climate change

• Diminishing natural and other resources

• Increasing pest and disease impacts

• Diminishing labour availability and increasing cost of labour

• Concerns about the environments

• Variable market status - gluts and scarcities

• Variable remuneration between crops

• Changing world trends in food production