Climate Change in Scotland:targets, policies and assessment

Liam Kelly

Climate Change Division

Introduction

• Climate Change (Scotland) Bill

• Mitigation: delivering the 80% target

• Carbon assessment

Scottish Government climate change policy landscape

CLIMATE CHANGE (SCOTLAND) BILL• Sets the strategic, long term aims

• Creates the necessary legislative framework to pursue those strategic aims

SUPPORTDescribes how the Government will pursue its strategic aims

REDUCING EMISSIONS

• Strategic Overview Paper

• Carbon assessment

• Emissions trading

PREPARING FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE

• Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework

COMMUNICATING THE CHALLENGE

Climate Change (Scotland) Bill

• 80% emissions reduction target in 2050

• Interim 50% target in 2030 •Covers all GHGs

• Statutory framework based on annual targets•Set at least 12 years in advance•Based on expert advice from CCC

• Targets will include international aviation and shipping

Key features

Climate Change (Scotland) Bill – enabling powers

• Require production of an energy efficiency action plan

• Powers to reduce waste and encourage recycling

• Powers to vary dates for muirburn (land management tool to prevent wildfires)

• Powers to promote and incentivise generation of heat from renewable sources

• Possible powers include:

– improving energy performance of non-domestic buildings

– maximising potential of forest estate

“Do” - Policies and actions

“Check” – Annual reports“Act” - Adjust actions as required

“Plan” – Target reports

Climate Change (Scotland) Bill

Achieving 80% - the size of the challenge

Setting out carbon budgets for the UK – CCC report

Identifying inputs to delivery

• Assumes delivery of existing and planned policies

• Improved vehicle technologies and “smarter choices”

• CCS for energy generation and industry

• Increased forest area

• Renewable heat

• Building energy efficiency

Inputs to the delivery work

Inputs to delivery work –baseline emissions in Scotland, 2006

Inventory category %

Power stations 32

Road transport 17

Residential combustion 12

Land converted to cropland 11

Other industrial combustion 10

Agricultural soils 6

Landfill 4

Enteric fermentation - cattle 4

Commercial and institutional combustion 3

Refineries 3

Delivering emissions reductions: Strategic Overview Discussion Paper

• Key sectors for abatement - electricity, heat, transport, housing, land use

• High level policy options - abatement potential and cost

• Short (2012), medium (2020) and long term (2030 and 2050)

• Releasing the potential abatement - milestones, barriers to implementation, actions

Carbon assessment in the Scottish Government

“…… Taking account of carbon impacts is already part of the best-value duty …… but the new carbon assessment tool will be applied to all Government spending in Scotland….”

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Sustainable Growth, John Swinney, January 2008

Carbon assessment

• High level assessment of overall budget• Individual level assessment of policies and plans

• Challenges include:• Setting boundaries• Establishing the methodological basis • Integration into wider business• Linking assessments together

Budget key facts

• Spending review every 2 or 3 years• Varying levels of detail• £34.6 billion in Scotland (2009-10), split approximately

as follows:– 33% to Local Authorities – 33% to the NHS – 7% on Further & Higher Education– 25% on Environment, Housing, Transport,

Justice, Administration

Consumption or production?

Production MtCO2e

Consumption MtCO2e

Scottish public sector 0.9 10.8

Scotland 59.0 83.6UK public sector 10.5 127.7UK 652.0 977.9

Source: AEA, SEI

HLA progress to date

• Literature review and consultation on carbon assessment methodologies

• Expert workshop• Proceeding on input-output basis initially

• Pilots in 2-3 areas

• Examining reduction mechanisms

ILA project

• Follows HM Treasury guidance on treating policy impacts

• Uses existing guidance on the Shadow Price of Carbon • Defra/DECC guidance on Greenhouse Gas Appraisal &

Evaluation – recently updated December 2008• Pilot areas currently engaged in trial operation of ILA

method

Conclusions

• Climate Change Bill – next Parliamentary activity follows shortly

• Setting targets – more details to emerge this summer with the Strategic Overview

• Carbon assessment - long term development of a complex issue