Scenarios for COScenarios for CO22 Emissions Emissionsfrom the Transport Sectorfrom the Transport Sector

in Asiain Asia

Presentation by John Rogers

24th May, 2006

Emerging AsiaEmerging AsiaPopulation GrowthPopulation Growth

• Half of the planet lives in emerging Asia– Increase 750 million by 2030 to 4 billion– The increase is greater than the total

population of Europe

• Urban population will rapidly increase– In China by 81% (2000 – 2025)– In India by 87%

• Increasing Urban sprawl– Leads to increasing motorization

Emerging AsiaEmerging Asia Economic Growth Economic Growth

• All countries have policies to promote economic growth– Essential for poverty alleviation– But should not occur at the expense of the

environment and future generations

• 80% GDP growth is coming from Urban Areas

• Economic growth stimulates demand– Leads to increasing motorization– Faster than GDP at current levels

Economic GrowthEconomic Growth l lengthens engthens supply and distribution supply and distribution

chainschains

Population and Economic Population and Economic Growth increases MotorizationGrowth increases Motorization

Transportation Sector Energy Transportation Sector Energy UseUse

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector

Transportation

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

(quadrillion Btu)Transport is the fastest

growing energy sector

Energy use for transport is Energy use for transport is projected to growprojected to grow

• China: 6 – 9% per year• India: 5 - 8 % per year

Energy

Use=

Number of

Vehicles

xUtilizatio

n÷

Fuel Efficienc

yx

Fuel Energy

Intensity

KJ units km/yr km/L KJ/L

6% per year for 20 years

is over 300% !!• Emerging Asia will demand

45% of the total world increase in oil use

GHG emissions from transport in GHG emissions from transport in China, India, and emerging Asia China, India, and emerging Asia

1971 - 20001971 - 2000

Vehicle population Vehicle population growthgrowth

in China in China

2005 2008 2015 2025 20352-W 55.3 78.1 146.7 193.2 130.43-W 2.0 1.5 1.7 0.3 0.0HCV 10.4 13.9 19.9 29.3 37.5LCV 9.4 13.1 22.8 37.7 52.9

Car, SUV 12.9 23.4 56.8 115.8 192.790.0 130.0 248.0 376.4 413.6

Class

Grand Total

0

1

2

3

1

#REF!

#REF!

0

100

200

300

400

500Million Vehicles

Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plcSee: http://segmenty.com

9 xby 2025

3.5 x

by 2025

Vehicle population Vehicle population growth in India growth in India

2005 2008 2015 2025 20352-W 35.8 46.1 87.7 174.1 236.43-W 2.3 3.0 5.3 8.8 13.1HCV 2.4 2.9 4.6 9.1 16.2LCV 2.4 3.2 5.7 12.5 26.9

Car, SUV 6.2 8.8 18.0 41.6 80.149.1 63.9 121.3 246.1 372.7

Class

Grand Total

0

1

2

3

1

#REF!

#REF!

0

100

200

300

400

500Million Vehicles

Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plcSee: http://segmenty.com

6.7 x

by 2025

5 xby 2025

Fuel Consumed by on-road Fuel Consumed by on-road transporttransport

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035China 215 284 431 602 753India 58 73 115 221 371

Economy

0

1

2

3

1

#REF!

#REF!

0

200

400

600

800Million Tons of Oil Equivalent

3.8 x

India

2.8 x

China

Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

Emissions standards in car Emissions standards in car populationspopulations

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

EURO V

EURO IV

EURO III

EURO II

EURO I

No norms

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

BS V

BS IVBS III

BS II

BS I

No norms

IndiaIndia

ChinaChina

Vehicle Population Projection from Segment Y plcSee: http://segmenty.com

PM10 emissions from on-road PM10 emissions from on-road transporttransport

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035China 732 839 922 392 115India 241 268 326 271 147

Economy

0

1

2

3

1

#REF!

#REF!

0

200

400

600

800

1,000Thousand Tons of PM10

1.1 x

India

0.5 x

China

Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

NOx emissions from on-road NOx emissions from on-road transporttransport

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035China 8.5 10.3 13.1 9.7 2.8India 2.2 2.6 3.5 3.6 1.6

Economy

0

1

2

3

1

#REF!

#REF!

0

5

10

15Million Tons of NOx

1.6 x

India

1.1 x

China

Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP modelSegment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

COCO22 emissions from on-road emissions from on-road transporttransport

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035China 752 967 1,429 2,039 2,557India 208 256 391 721 1,212

Economy

0

1

2

3

1

#REF!

#REF!

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000Million Tons of CO2

3.5 x

India

2.7 x

China

Segment Y Vehicle Population Projection using IEA SMP model

Source: T&E, 2004

Transport is key to Transport is key to mitigating climate changemitigating climate change

What was that bump?

How can we limit the growth How can we limit the growth of of

GHG emissions from GHG emissions from transport?transport?Numbe

r of Vehicle

s

xUtilizatio

n÷

Fuel Efficienc

yx

Fuel CO2 Intensity

Reduce the need to travel Modal ShiftTraffic Demand ManagementTransport PlanningUrban Design

Pay the full costof externalities• congestion, • pollution, • climate change • roads and parking

Engine & VehicleTechnologyTraffic ManagementVehicle Maintenance

Lower Carbon Foot-print with Bio-Fuelsand Alternate Fuels

But it is not only a But it is not only a Climate Change problem…..Climate Change problem…..

Energy SecurityAir Quality and HealthTraffic and Congestion

Quality of LifeEconomic

DevelopmentTransport Efficiency

Theco-

benefits of climate

change mitigation

Is it urgent?Is it urgent?

• Transport is the source of 60% of the increase in total world-wide GHG emissions 2002 – 2025

• Even in the most optimistic scenario temperatures will continue to rise for the whole of this century

• The most effective actions if started now will take decades to show significant changes

For More InformationFor More Information

John A Rogersjrogers@trafalgar-mexico.com