introducing climate resilience into 100% renewable energy scenarios for small island developing...
TRANSCRIPT
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Introducingclimateresilienceinto100%renewableenergyscenariosforSmallIslandDevelopingStates
TomRogers
FacultyofScience&TechnologyTheUniversityoftheWestIndies
CaveHillCampus
SmallIslandDevelopingStates(SIDS)
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SmallIslandDevelopingStates(SIDS)
Source:hDp://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/IPCC-AR5-Whats-in-it-for-SIDS_WEB.pdf
• SmallbutgrowingpopulaUons• Limitedresources• Remoteness• SuscepUbilitytonaturalhazards
• Vulnerabilitytoexternalshocks• ExcessivedependenceoninternaUonaltrade• Fragileenvironments
PrimaryenergymixforCaribbeancountries
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
AnUgua&Barbuda
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Dominica
Grenada
Jamaica
StKiDs&Nevis
StLucia
StVincent&theGrenadines
Suriname
Naturalgas Diesel/HFO Solidbiofuels Hydro Coal+peat Solarthermal
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$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
Costofe
lectric
ity(U
S$/kWh)
UKresidenHalelectricityprice(~US$0.20/kWh)
ResidenHalelectricitycostsintheCaribbean(2016)
A100%renewableBarbadosANDlowerenergybills
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Currentstatus-DemandcurveforBarbados
40MW-Steamturbines(HFO)
113.5MWLowspeeddiesel(HFO)
86MWGasturbines(diesel+jetfuel)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
Source:Homeyer,O.(2014).100%renewableBarbados.Seewww.brea.bb
0.08
0.12
0.20
0.29
0.25
0.04
0.09
0.120.11
0.07
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
UUlity
-wind
(onsho
re)
SolarP
V
(UUlity
)
SolarP
V(Distrib
uted
)
Fossilfuel
plant
Fuelclause
adjustmen
t
Gene
raUo
ncost(U
S$/kWh)
ExpectedcostofrenewablesforBarbados
Figure1.Es,matedgenera,oncostsforBarbados.
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GeneraHonfromwindandsolar
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
Wind
Solar
Source:Homeyer,O.(2014).100%renewableBarbados.Seewww.brea.bb
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
Wind+Solar
Windandsolarcombined
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
Demandcurve
Wind+Solar
Source:Homeyer,O.(2014).100%renewableBarbados.Seewww.brea.bb
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Over-andunder-producHonfromwindandsolar
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
OverproducUon
UnderproducUon
Source:Homeyer,O.(2014).100%renewableBarbados.Seewww.brea.bb
Residualloadcurve
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
12:00AM
1:00AM
2:00AM
3:00AM
4:00AM
5:00AM
6:00AM
7:00AM
8:00AM
9:00AM
10:00AM
11:00AM
12:00PM
1:00PM
2:00PM
3:00PM
4:00PM
5:00PM
6:00PM
7:00PM
8:00PM
9:00PM
10:00PM
11:00PM
12:00AM
Power(M
W)
AddiHonalgeneraHonnecessaryfromstorage
OverproducHon.Energystoredforlateruse.
Source:Homeyer,O.(2014).100%renewableBarbados.Seewww.brea.bb
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StorageopHons
• Powertogas(topower)
• Pumpstoragehydro
• BaDerystorage
Source:Homeyer,O.(2014).100%renewableBarbados.Seewww.brea.bb
51GWhbiomass
1GWhPSH 230MWwind200MWsolarPV
$0.11/kWh
A100%renewablescenarioforBarbados
Source:Homeyer,O.(2014).100%renewableBarbados.Seewww.brea.bb
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
FuelClauseAd
justmen
t(US$/kWh)
Levilisedcostofelectricityat100%renewables
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PumpedStorageHydroforBarbados
WhenthePSHisdepleted?
• BiomassopUons(biodieselorbiogas)• ADracUonofkeepingdieselgeneratorsoperaUonal
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Ensuringresilienceofenergysystemstoclimatechange
SmallIslandDevelopingStatesProjectedclimatechangefor2081-2100
TropicofCapricorn
TropicofCancer
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SmallIslandDevelopingStatesIncreasedthreatfromcyclones/hurricanes
Hurricanesposethreatto:• Windturbines• Roof-mountedPVsystems
• Ground-mountedsolarPVsystems• ElectricalinterconnecUon
Cyclonesandwindturbines…
Source: http://www.credp.org/Data/CSEF2/Wednesday/pdf/Jargstorf-Hurricane_a_constraint.pdf
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Temperatureincrease
Effectoftemperatureincreaseondemand
RefrigeraHon/Freezers15%
Spacecooling19%
IndoorlighUng28%
Appliances15%
Misc11%
OutdoorlighUng9%
Cooking3% Onethirdofdemand
isforcooling
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Power(M
W)
Time
Effectoftemperatureincreaseondemand
• MiddayaircondiUoningloadincreases• Fridge/freezerloadsincrease
Effectofrainfall/drought/canefiresonbiomass
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EffectofrainfallonPumpedStorageHydro
Upperreservoir
Lowerreservoir
• Nomajorimpactsforeseenfromrainfallchanges
• Opportunitytocollectrainwatercanhelpimprovewatersecurity
Conclusions
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Conclusions
• ShiitorenewablewillincreaseSIDS’senergysecurity
• Impactofclimatechangeneedstobecommunicated
• ResilienceplanningshouldbeincorporatedintoanytransiUon
• OpportuniUesformajorinnovaUoninSIDSforenergysystems
Thankyou!
Address: FacultyofScience&TechnologyTheUniversityoftheWestIndiesCaveHillCampus
Email: [email protected]:4174158(or)4174000